They are going through so that i can convey the headlines in the most human way possible. We believe everyone has a story worth hearing. Hello im daryn jordan this is counting the cost on aljazeera you look at the world of business and economics this week cracks in the Global Economy stocks saw to record highs despite the coronavirus con demick billionaires become richer but the poor get poorer so is it time to finally confront capitalism. Remaking china on the world in president cheese image is the middle kingdom looking inwards as the chill of a new cold war threatens the factory of the world. And global debt saw as government spend spend spend on the world cope with even more debt. Well no nation has been spared from the corona virus pandemic with 22000000 cases and almost 800000 deaths the Health Crisis is far from over a secondary spikes flare up we may have seen some of the worst economic costs but most pain could be lurking as we head into the final few months of the year well most of the industrialized world has delivered on its 2nd quarter g. D. P. Numbers and the worst performer was Boris Johnsons britain its economy contracted more than a 5th after failing to lock down early enough the country also has the most deaths in europe. While the Unemployment Rate has yet to reflect the severity of the economic crisis its only a matter of time when furlough schemes across europe come to an end in the United States more than 20000000. 00 people lost their jobs before a stuttering recovery began in the developing world those in the informal economy with the worst affected with more than 120000000 day laborers losing their jobs in india well against this backdrop the United States and china have inch towards a new cold war President Trump is taking aim at Chinas Hong Kong security law the internment of millions of we goes and Technology Companies that are seen as a Security Threat president xi has extended his control inside china and has taken a more aggressive expansive approach high in the himalayas on the disputed border with india and across the South China Sea so lets take some of those issues and put them into our expert panel and see whats in store for the rest of the year joining me from london is bill ill have fees c. E. O. Of micro hive and from singapore via skype is rajiv biz was rajeev is the executive director and asia pacific chief economist at i. H. S. Market and from london is robert quarterly Janiero Robert is visiting fellow at the observatory with the London School of economics raj of let me start with you 1st if i may so what are we then to make of the recovery in china what are we seeing and what are we not seeing because there appears to be this build up of supply factories or humming but consumers are not spending. Well the chinese economy has rebounded very well from the shutdown that happened back in february at the peak of the pandemic in china and were seen Industrial Production actually coming back to pretty much normal levels and i actually growing compared to create pandemic output levels and on the consumer side activity is also normalized to a large extent its almost back to the pre and demick levels of retail sales however some sectors are still lagging clearly tourism still is very much impacted and also the Airline Industry or commercial travel was still below the levels of preplanned demick but i think when we look at chinas Economy Today its really probably leading the Global Recovery out of the pandemic robert lets bring you into him and talk about the geopolitical situation starting with that relationship between the United States and china let me ask you is this the new cold war and what does it mean for trade its a little bit and you will think it does across a number of areas most players human rights trace the u. S. The u. S. Do with this huge trade deficit with china about 420000000000 it can use that money to refocus efforts and trade relationships elsewhere so you so apple recently nuisance adoption to india as opportunities to things that malaysia air and be. The chinese it was a horrible 0 percent of outstanding u. S. Treasuries 11 trillion and the u. S. Really needs to in the long. Stop china helping. People was available to the many simply that most of them. Were no sissy recently their way that chinese firms are no dont be able to list and you have stock exchanges as part of the country for the china hustle and then the aussie evade the sea of things that we say things like to talk and we chat in the us are going to be stopped less than by u. S. Companies say its a its a big play. Really to know it cold war this moment and thats what it needs to be as an economical whole so its not a military war and thats what the u. S. Can tell you that is if they buy parts and supports whether joe biden wins the next actual or whether done from stays in this president this white hot sand was fought for for tougher line on chop below lets bring you in here because purely on the economic basis i mean why would china be pushing a more expensive approach a more confrontational approach with its neighbors i mean is china feeling stronger more emboldened perhaps. Yes i do think there is a big element off that i think under president xi the regime there has become more. And more concerned with protecting power i think also theres an issue around the u. S. Withdrawal from the global stage which then allows china to be no expansive in its neighboring countries and then also has an economic aspect to all of this which china does also want to consolidate its economic relationships across asia again in response to some of the threats from the u. S. As well rajiv whos done the best job then of handling the crisis in the Asia Pacific Region i mean is that new zealand vietnam or south korea well as i mentioned china is leading the recovery if we look at a global level and in the cases of vietnam. New zealand and south korea they have been doing very well until basically just a couple of weeks ago they have managed to control their cases to very very low levels in the case of new zealand and vietnam they had 3 months straight with no cases unfortunately its all come on wound in the last couple of weeks with an upsurge of cases in all of those 3 countries so although the case levels are still relatively low compared to their population it does show that you are getting the 2nd waves springing up across the region but at an economic level there has been quite a good rebound across the region most of the countries in the asia pacific kept showing quite a rebound during june and july as lockdowns have been lifted and some of the restrictions in terms of movement and consumer activity have been slowly relaxed so i did not make level theres improvement but this does on going concern about the impact of 2nd waves that are hitting a number of the countries in asia region and roll but every time we have a crisis we always talk about the remaking of capitalism or the economy i mean will things change. Well they said i think so basically said we need things to change. You know the last 3 or 4 weeks not recessions they end and then we move back into a new Business Cycle so i guess. I think this time you know what we need is this highway to city sensation when it said it will Business Models people he jokes this is a huge deal our jobs before this i says there are millions and millions of people out work so that there is not sit down and we have to move forward in a way that. What d will happen. Thats much harder to set but i let me bring you back into the into the discussion here is g. D. P. Everything i mean as new zealands Prime Minister just pointed out Economic Growth is pointless unless people are thriving. Yes absolutely i mean i think that for a long time as being the critiques of g. D. P. In fact when g. D. P. Was 1st crazy and the intention wasnt pretty to be the big target for poor economy so the big issues we do have a g. D. P. Todays money is best simply a measurement issue how do you measure petitional economy and whats going on in additional world in g. D. P. Statistics so theres 1. 00 just basic error that you have there another is that i am very simple that more g. D. P. Expansion also means that you are draining the earth of its resources at every so simple levels and doesnt take into account environmental impacts and finally theres an issue around whether g. D. P. Equates to well being and happiness or not and all of these are problems with g. D. P. So alternatives do need to be looked at and lets just talk about something weve heard a lot about over the last couple of months and its stimulus packages do you think we have an addiction to them because it seems every time theres a crisis governments think that they can resolve it by throwing money at the problem. Well weve now had 2 massive crises since 2009 obviously the Global Financial crisis when the Banking Systems in the u. S. And europe were basically failing and the Central Banks the fed the e. C. B. And bank of england stepped in with massive stimulus measures governments also reacted with strong fiscal stimulus and then you know rowing forward another 10 years down the road here we are with a massive pandemic Global Pandemic and Central Banks and governments are doing even more if anything you know government stimulus packages across the world are very very large and there will be a price to pay for this huge spending. Government debt levels risen significantly because of this spending by governments and of course the expansion of Central Bank Balance sheets eventually has to be on wound so all of these things will affect the medium to long term outlook for many countries for some developing countries maybe even more immediate triggering debt crises and external payment crises in some developing countries but i want to pick you up on something that you mentioned earlier and thats about employments old block of jobs why has europe not seen the same slump in jobs that asia africa and the United States as witness for example. One of the casings that was a year. Was going to safety nets it doesnt have the harm far culture. Employment it was more formal and informal so thats one of the reasons why weve not seen the job losses yet but dont see sets or set around rattling here the aviation manufacturers tours you know seeing those shops starting to be lost a big numbers a. C. C. Announced specify 1000 job losses box expenses and you cannot 7000 job losses thats just 2 examples its difficult to see that this jobs will come back from i mean overall employment in europe is 7. 5 percent but that really mocks the fact that theres some countries say its 47. 00 its heading towards 15 in greece it was also 40 percent say it was 7 c. That it was nonsense that it was 10 percent. Employment unemployment is increasing at a rate which is greater than European Commission thought it would be the 20202021 so if you already see those levels now thats where you worry going into the next year and if you look at the u. S. And how the u. S. Will not see the u. S. Lost seats 0. 15 people there on and political about 1000000. 00 people their car you see think state aid for them. d yet 47 percent of american civil said jobs in the u. S. This jobs are never going to come box theres a level of hopelessness. Which to say the u. K. And the e. U. Havent yet had property and i see you missed the beginning of the for a while and see if its 9000000 jobs not all ringback of these chips are going to remain so. Its a huge concern and i think your was able to delay the inevitable and not suffer. Bill lets just stick with britain if we can because britain has been the outlier in whichever metric you can think up worst 2nd quarter g. D. P. More deaths than anywhere else in europe and its only going to get worse isnt it well certainly the u. K. Has had one of the worst performances in europe the question of whether it will get worse is less clear cut you know one is because although many countries are seeing 2nd ways and theres some evidence youre seeing some signs of that in the u. K. That the scale of that is not the same as it was 34 months ago so i think the the extent of the crisis in terms of cases and debts just isnt as extreme as it were as it was before moreover what we have a full lockdown in the u. K. Then we saw most of grot decline in the economy and i dont think well see such a such a large decline again not least because the economy is reopening up so its much more you know much more able to for us to see Economic Activity in the u. K. The challenge though for the u. K. Is that we also have a bracks it coming up as well so on top of the lingering impacts of the coded recession you also have a huge trade shock that is coming down the line negotiations so far have not necessarily progressed that much so you case extremely vulnerable at this stage in terms of whether it will have a sustainable and fast recovery from here on wards and thats an important point to make let me bring in rajiv back here because you look at britains handling of the crisis and you look at the strength of the pound i mean it does define logic i mean markets just seem to be detached from reality so what am i missing rajiv. Well i think there is a lot of. Distortions and whats happening in markets because a large Central Bank Liquidity flows into the Financial System you know that as a recently one of the factors behind whats happening with assets on the other hand you know in terms of currencies youve seen the weaker dollar in recent months and i think probably partly due to the. Situation where confidence in the Financial System has declined as Central Banks of or liquidity into the system so the pound i think probably benefits from the weaker dollar and says the euro so its a question of you know which currencies ugly are amongst the major reserve currencies right now so i think it is a very unclear situation in terms of the prices will form thats why youve seen go rallying thats very seen also some of the cryptocurrency is increasing because investors are concerned about the Financial System and what the implications are of this huge expansion in Bank Balance Sheets from the fed e. C. B. And other Central Banks and also the consequences of this huge increase in Government Debt so these are i think long term challenges are going to be with us long after the pandemic is over a robot lets talk about some of the wealthier people in the wealthier corporations i mean all 1000000000 as do you think a sign of an Economic System thats broken i mean jeff bezos for example has seen his wealth rise by 300000000000. 00 apple has just become the worlds Biggest Company by market value. That is incredible isnt it i think you say apple. Has what 2 trillion. Dollars now which is the largest in the Italian Economy and to keep a sense of just misses incredible i guess you can get into a sickness that success in that people can become that wealthy but also ringback a failure because people say that passed from alive and then to call it exists around the heart so its but i think people need to be worth that much money no is a problem that a companys top 5 people yeah i think when you start becoming bigger than the tents which the column in the wall is a strategic issue for countries to look can examine what they can do about. It beyond that it creates political resentment and have great examples recently in history with the arab spring the Russian Revolution the french revolution that is if the people to talk have say much the people who have nothing then in time will become an issue that people will be willing to accept and so its its also a easy to play rich people for being wealthy and instead i think well see the ways that we should be assets and finance to keep around the walls and to set the cheaper homes better wages that debt or less debt im not just saying well thats just tax rich people so say about how do we improve the lives of everyday people all right so we talked about the rich and the poor heres a question gentlemen that i want to put to all of you if you can answer briefly for me but ill let me start with you i mean we can forget any idea of a v. Shaped recovery so whats your best prognosis briefly. Well i think one aid that it does depend which region of the world but it but in general my sense is that we are going to see a recovery across the world it will be more shallows a run into the it could be more like a source like a nike swoosh so there will be some recovery you know i dont think that we are going to enter another major recession so id say a recovery not necessarily a completely shape but nevertheless we will we will see a recovery and it will vary across regions around the world yet rajiv are you seeing any any signs of the green shoots of recovery perhaps really or has been a huge rebound all around the world since jury and in terms of manufacturing output and also in terms of retail sales its not combat anywhere near what it was before the pandemic but there has been a rebound as lockdowns of been lifted and factories are allowance rusian production and i have stores have reopened the restaurants are 3 of them so were to have seen some back towards. The preponderant might levels but its still a long way short of anywhere like that level when we look globally and i think really now the key will be what happens with boxing you know how the economy can rebound after the vaccine so its starting to be ruled out so at the moment it does look like 2021 should see a much better performance a reasonably good growth performance next year on the basis that there will be some rollout of vaccine sometime next year yeah robots and youve painted some fairly grim picture in terms of the numbers just a bit earlier so whats your best prognosis then. Yes audio noise is bullish is that of an rajai par yes builds up that sent the year of your sexy markets the dow and the s. And they are up but if you dip your back 40 at that c 150 were down yes up sort all of this up for how long is another question and i really worry. About the long term effects of what companies are going to make it a 20 percent decline in profits which would be the end of then. We have again you know a bit of a loss especially here supply so its all. But not enough that all d the demand for this elusive money towards banks those months was lettuce and business lines but not to its people actually going out and spending money lets move the conversation on to u. S. Politics and whats happening there rajiv let me start with you i mean do you think the relationship between the United States and china will change if joe biden wins the u. S. Election in november. Well i think that. Weve seen that you know a very strong position of the moment from the u. S. Administration today and that does have support in congress over. The details and your wants is of how the next administration would position if theres a change in administration maybe somewhat different but i think the fundamental position in the u. S. Congress is that they do want stronger measures views of the china and i i think at the moment were seeing quite an intensification of the Technology War between the u. S. And china have with a lot of measures being taken by the u. S. And i think in that area theres likely to be continuing to be i think regardless of who wins the next election in the area of schrage where the u. S. Has a very large straight deficit of china i think there are there may be more efforts to try to find some soldiers that were some to boost u. S. Exports into the chinese economy robert just quickly let me come back to you so whats the prospect like then for another trump what do you make of his handling of the pandemic and is he likely to pay a price for that do you think. This is 5050. That you sense also that from way. In the key states that trump texas georgia florida which is now its not its home states you have to turn this red thats the king by about 4 percent margin give or take where things are so its pretty close yet so its not time to boil it expects the imagination playing golf when youre in the middle of the Health Crisis isnt it great p. R. I didnt its completely trump fault people 50 states of health yes its nice. Its not easy when youre the president say to look after that in terms of joe bidens campaigning one fear i have is oh say his ability to do rallies to hold meetings i mean how you how do you do that youre not say that its very difficult to have some level of impact on the democrats but its. A bit now lets just go back quickly if we can on the question of stimulus package is i mean does the u. S. Need another package to support the recovery yes i do think there is a need for another package and that doesnt necessarily need to be as large as the 1st one but i do think there needs to be some kind of measures especially on the unemployment side to extend benefits perhaps not at the levels that we saw before but i think there is a need for that just to to ensure that we dont get any large disruptions there in the economy the problem of course is that with the election coming up so closely at the incentives for cooperation between the 2 parties is less which then brings up the specter of President Trump using executive orders to try to bring some kind of the menace which which it which in itself is constitutionally quite questionable rajeev let me get a final thought from you to end the chat i mean does debt matter anymore and how will we pay for the pandemic do we even need to pay for the pandemic. Definitely doesnt matter depends rich country you are if youre the u. S. Or japan you have probably a longer runway to deal with the issues of debt and it also depends whos funding the debt if youre a developing country and a lot of your Debt Financing is coming from Foreign Investors then you are very much the mercy of sentiment ok and so i think for many developing countries which of you greece their debt they do face tremendous challenges over the medium term oh well 3 gentlemen thank you very much indeed we have to leave it there thanks for your insight and your analysis from london blau fees and Robert Courtney janeiro and from singapore rajiv business thank you all for talking to count in the costs thank you. That is our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with us via twitter use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us an email account on the cost of aljazeera dot net is our address im daryn jordan from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on aljazeera is next. 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