Libyas rival powers call for a new ceasefire in the civil war but its unclear whether the war Khalifa Haftar will support it so will the truce hold long enough to give peace a chance this isnt one story. Alone welcome to the program im in wrong on many ceasefires who tried and failed to end years of conflict in libya but the 2 rival powers appear to have found some Common Ground with the latest truce an ounce went on friday tripolis a un recognized government cold fighting to come to an end and for elections to be held by march its rival administration in the east which backs the warlord holy for have to also urged all parties to stick to the truce the u. N. Expressed its support as did major have to baca egypt but the warlord hasnt responded after has suffered a series of losses along libyas western coast since the start of this year the government in tripoli says it will respond if necessary when you have one who can enter will have to respect to cease fire where they will to guarantee he would respect to cease fire after the building talks or previous agreements he threw specs this is fine we will welcome that because we do not want to be in bloodshed we call for peace however if you violate the Peace Agreement were ready to fight and we will force him to leave like with forced him to leave western libya. Will bring in our guests in a moment but 1st this report from malik traina in misrata. The head of the internationally recognized gov National Accord in tripoli pfizer has called on a cease fire on friday and return i give us all the speaker of the eastern based parliament has also called on a cease fire now whether or not this will actually lead to a serious and permanent cease fire remains to be seen this is gained International Traction with countries welcoming the statement including the u. S. The u. K. Egypt the u. A. E. Qatar and various actors in the in the libyan conflict so whether or not this will actually lead to a serious cease fire is yet to be seen we spoke to the spokesman of the military operations here for sort of a job for and what he said is whether or not have to actually accept or respect the ceasefire agreement is yet to be seen if he does we will we welcome that and we will we are we dont we do not want further bloodshed but if he is going to violate the ceasefire agreement they are saying that they are ready to fight and will continue on today liberate all of libya in his words now there have been previous cease fire agreements in the past that hasnt really amounted to a serious political solution here in libya so whether or not this is going to actually be the beginning of a serious political and military solution is yet to be seen trainer for inside story misrata. Lets take a closer look at the situation on the ground now the tripoli based government controls the area and the Khalifa Haftar controls the area in red the rest of the territory is controlled by other groups both sides being gehring out for a battle of the city of sirte the gateway to libyas prized oil fields but there are now proposals to jointly demilitarize the area along with the base in the south. After us forces are in control of sirte and have been imposing an oil blockade since january causing nearly 8000000000. 00 in losses friday cease fire calls for production to resume. Lets bring in our guests in istanbul we have an ass Al Gore Marty director of the select institute a libya based think tank in temple combe u. K. We have a loonie a Libya Research at Durham University and in washington d. C. Jonathan winer a former u. S. Special envoy to libya a welcome to you all id like to begin istanbul with an os. Now there seems to be one person who is very conspicuous by his absence in all of this and that Khalifa Haftar hes not the one that actually signed off on this cease fire deal it was a regular salary who is effectively the de facto spokesman i guess you could call him of after hes the one that actually signed this should we should we be concerned about is this a power struggle within after his organization. Well certainly one way to look at it and i think there is. A way of thinking about the interlocutors i had a solid as the speaker ability in parliament offers you know a traction more legitimacy i suppose to those who is the u. A. E. Russia and egypt who backed the Libyan National army of the Libyan Armed Forces and of deployed their own forces but i would also say going further that when one looks at the last time that we were in this position in january 20th of this year in berlin when there were International Powers that were brought together and clip up there was there there was a certain sense that phillip out there had been in charge of this operation for almost a year that he launched that they can decide that the buttons went to proceed in advance militarily and then went to move back and i think thats changed dramatically if we look back at may of this year it was russian divestment and u. A. E. Divestment in the sense that they pulled back russian messines and syrian mostly as from the front line they stopped deploying there and eroticism the plane the drone forced in tripoli and collapsed helicopters offensive and ultimately i think that transition really means that number one were at a different chapter now i think where the military and i mix a concern this is much more about the u. A. E. Has deployed the drone force into sort its also about russia who also deployed 16 jets just south of that and just but have also deployed back the most marines that are now no longer plausibly deniable but theyre also have been captured in footage and have been reported quite widely in western press so this is going to make this metronomic almost certain means that it up there is no longer militarily speaking quite relevant and i would say that going on beyond that present at the protests in egypt welcoming libyan tribes and talking about arming the libyan tribes to move forward is certainly the kind of the cherry on the cake when speaking about one of those military relevance and i think in a sense weve kind of moved on and its really questionable whether or not. Deliver up there or a Libyan National army is relevant to the motor government or get us all out of the very least offers a plausible to more liberal shows some form of legitimacy and it makes him a similarly look this is a libyan Led Coalition but the reality of the on the ground militarily speaking with a toilet or not at this point. A lunatic war were looking at a situation now where had after us forces been able to take tripoli this would be a very different conversation that didnt happen is this cleaning house the international has the International Community has back is deciding that i said we did backed the wrong horse and now we need to just change our tactic i think what we see today is clearly a confidence Building Measure india but i think this is the 1st time in my teens the war in tripoli in ever 2019 the libyan are coming to the table for peace in the sense that this is an outcome maybe coming a bit late of the process that was initiated at the end of last year and then like on us when i was mentioning. Had 1 may not a case in all discussion among the parties in general but back then the 2 sides not agree to call a ceasefire so i think what we are seeing now instead of these calls for a National Wide ceasefire is in itself a confidence Building Measure between the main begin parties and not a compressive Peace Agreement so we need to be cautious when we evaluate this it is certainly an attempt especially our like west that promises to be again relevant and limits as much as possible of the interference of russia and turkey on the ground this could be a weather and we will see that in the coming weeks it could be a fast a step towards a sustainable and inclusive maybe and political settlement. Turn of the morning d. C. Confidence Building Measures a kernel of hope. In agreements do you think this this is the start i think the analysis is exactly right but one additional factor is the fact. Libyans dont really like killing libyans libyan against libyan violence to sustain well is something that weve seen very rarely it happened in the uprising with pricing ended. But it stopped then theres been very limited live you know libya killing since Islamic State was something that the libyans wanted to get rid of once it came in precisely because they were so plugged thirsted then took away all. Of mr gillat mr else roger gonnet difficult relationship in the past the fact that theyre both willing to sign on to the cease fire at the same time reflects i think their desire to see whether a political agreement can before to reach those result in elections in libya moving forward with resources being shared belongs there why range inclusive range but would be in libyan groups libya egypt rather territorial libyan factions that all could happen yes it all could happen its not going to be easy one prerequisite thing is for the foreign sponsors to tell their clients we want you to do we dont want you to fight and thats what seems to be happening now people are drawing back from the risks of an intensifying regional proxy war and thats a good thing it provides real potential opportunity for libya that a time when covert is believed to establish itself in the country then the risk of further humanitarian catastrophe is real and i. Want to use is quite interesting language that the foreign backed his need to tell their clients how much of this has been extended this war has been extended by those exact foreign backers and then looking at Libyan Forces like clients. I think its gone beyond that and i would say and i would hazard to look at it in terms of this idea that were preserving lives i think in general 20th when the conversation is in berlin and the fighting was in tripoli the most densely populated part of libya that was about the preservation of life the question now when we move toward sent a less than 6 opulent area an area with human life that should be preserved by all means i dont think the International Actor is actually going about that but thinking about what some of them may be thinking about the preservation of libya as a unified territory and also its now much more about the geo strategic and jip political implications of where we are that front line has been quiet for weeks there is no fighting around so this is a formalization of the stalemate the problem and i think in the contention here is that it comes around in the most sensitive part of libya where there is a historically but not determined border between Eastern Libya and western libya and extension to the south side in libya and that border is really about libyas historic regions its also the place where libyas oil rich and best oil wealth is under the ground and kilometers away and me all present so i think thats much more about geopolitics it was a danger and i said and danger that when we look at the foreign actors who are no longer thinking about their client because their clients will do what they say or theyll pull them from the table they they control both the military dynamic by supplying weapons they control the Ground Forces that were there russian mercenary on one side with syria mercenaries other syrian mercers that are on the genocide but more importantly they also the time and who can come to the negotiation table or not by not extending a visit or an invitation to up there is no longer relevant the real problem here i think is that this offers comfort to not the clients but to the patrons themselves i mean in a sense if youre thinking of the u. A. E. And russia and egypts position theyre able to preserve and offer themselves a military comforts by sitting pretty in Eastern Libya and extending their influence anyone who now jeopardizes the demilitarization or that the peace building exercise that is going around 25 kilometers east of silt or 25. 00. Kilometers west of that is no longer talking about preserving the unity of libya but is jeopardizing a peaceful the next theres a real danger here and i think this is what we should be talking about and moving and creeping closely towards the artificial artificial partition of libya and 3 years in a conflict that was only you know jelling around in the last couple of weeks hasnt been a movement but doing it under the guise of a peace the next size that could very quickly and quite quite easily move towards the partition of libya. Looneys an interesting thing should we be talking about this idea that things have just frozen is not really a ceasefire the misrata and forces havent actually pulled back from their positions outside of or theyre still there and they dont trust me for have to anymore than anybody else and they are adopting a wait and see approach when it comes to the cease fire so were at were in a moment of frozen tension is that right. Yes and i think the security arrangements around face that andrew for as well will have to be a crucial a crucial test of these codes for a cease fire let me be more specific when it comes to d. N. A. Allowing for this you mentioned the mistrust that group spot we have to remind the both self that this is a broad group of armed forces that would represent other towns and to be able to sleep tripoli and said don as well this is this a cooperation of all kind of anger is referring to and so these groups they have drawn welcomed and said that they will abide by peace call for ceasefire but at the same time as you mentioned they said that when that with no one to the other party which will so here when he comes to see if the specifically we will have to see whether these potties will be able to come to some form of an agreement to some form of security arrangement and he seemed to call for a like a quick military dialogue to establish some sort of like a police force and as i mentioned a security arrangement in this area however what is it interesting if we observe. The 2 statements by mr savage and makes that solid if that is a cell it does not mention java and we know the group is the main pro and then they airbase whereas this is what i asked does mention to any statement any gives us a clear sense that he does not believe there would be a serious fight its 5th without being called so that makes her eyes so i think again if we are looking at the next steps it would be very interesting to see how the parties that come through the security arrangements that could happen within the framework of the joint military commission and the sub just learned of committees. And the only role of the u. N. Mission to libya another option that we might want to consider. Peace because might want to consider in this respect is a direct dialogue between the rival minister ministries of interior in tripoli and so the objective here is to have a quick military dialogue and start a security arrangement our own enjoy and then take things from there are the modern d. C. U. With the special envoy to libya considerable experience in the country when it comes negotiating with with different sides and also in other complex as well is it time to have you need to lead the United Nations mission to libya is that the best a process that we can to hari this procedure along or is that all going to work well there is no alternative to having the u. S. Taking the lead in negotiations youre going to have locations for talks from geneva to nest or a stripper learn or wherever. It needs to be led by the un because any other leader including the United States potentially is going to be seen as tilting toss one way or another. What can work is when the u. N. Drives a process then the main. Actors that have been vocally cough would all push. The groups that theyve been working with in the Country Courts resolving the problem and there are 3 things that need to happen that its to be one undergo shooting process not a bunch sponsored by different people because one people pick and choose that all falls d apart the patrons need to tell the client you have to deal now nows the time to negotiate but to reach compromise and then there have to be benefits to every region that cant just benefit one location like a National Capital benefits have to flow widely for the country the kind of Forward Support of what the can bring peace im concerned about the potential of a frozen conflict where spheres of influence which clearly exist now being pushed into a park rubbish or partition but im not as concerned about it as i would be in other countries because the oil does not run in clean cheer graphic lawyers it transversed this country because a trench versus a trance sex and the lines you could draw its going to wind up i believe being impossible to go shit. A partition. That allows for libya to produce of the wealth thats needed to pay for the food and the medicine and the other goods that the libyan people need and deserve to have i also think the libyans most generally are libyans they move around but they may have some. Affiliations and connection but allegiance to where they grew up theyre all libyans that i think in the end libyan led processes under u. N. Auspices with the support from outside powers can negotiate an integrated country and its essential of they do that when you have pros and cons. Yes those conference tend to be pros as result of an outside were. Pushing and holding the disputed territory on behalf of a Minority Group but one kind or another look at a particular Geographic Area they want to support about outside powers and through that state so to what used to be National Territory and russia has been a major actor in frozen conflicts and we need to make sure that doesnt happen here but i agree that a subtle risk nice clear she gets and i believe that the United States regardless of who wins our elections in november will continue to have a policy of having an integrated libya. One that is under democratic process pushes towards resolving conflicts that have taken place over the past 16 months ending the instability thats been evident ever since the uprising in 2011 and nothing came out in istanbul jonathan weena says its actually the u. N. That need to do this but there is at least from some people in libya a strong suspicion of the u. N. Because they did back the tripoli based government they have had a position within this conflict you think the u. N. Are the ones to do this. The new un is only a strong as the u. N. Security Council Actors have and how to exercise their feet so and influence within the mission and i think its not an occupation as you know immune from being swayed one way or the other and we shouldnt we should remember that the government of National Accord today that sits as a party to this conflict was supposed to be the solution to the last conflict and it was supposed to be you know made up a unity government made up of the different sides that if the military factions the different political wings and trends that are moving around in libya so you know we have a track record and a precedent of imperfect solutions and the Democratic Solutions or a was just good enough and you know everything gets brushed under the carpet so i think thats my main fear here is that whilst there seems to be some really great efforts and some really great talk by the un and by others that are now supporting this initiative its so easy for unilateral policies made by either states of the u. N. Security Council Level to turn a blind eye and become ambivalent to spoiling the goes on to the you know direct intervention or the proxy sponsoring of many of the actors there or that just you know they turn a complete blind eye to the military buildup in the east or in the west of the country for that matter but it becomes something that we just live with and these imperfect solutions are often things that later come back to haunt us we have very short windows of time to be able to write been local actors to be able to accept that there is a move Going Forward and the world until and in order to ripen them you have to do things you have to slow down to shut down in fact the supply of weapons and of military personnel and of any kind of hardware that sustains the conflict but you also need trust you need trust in consistency stability in order and some idea of predictability in an International System whether it be e. U. Positions whether it be to un position both which are crucial in libya but if you dont have any consistency in those things and the best example of its that were actors that were sanctioned and condemned them and you know and brought to justice and so to speak. In september of 2018 when they attacked. Really in fact in the piece were going to tell it but after that its wonderful to be true to not only was ignored and was there was a massive sense of the middle east towards it later turns out that it was going to be owning up to her and i would like to get to all of the guests as well it seems to me that you are actually in agreement in many ways with Jonathan Winer in d. C. You want to avoid this idea that the tensions are frozen and that people have these spheres of influence which wont bring about a lost and less allouni i just want to get your thoughts on this do you think the United Nations of the full the people to negotiate a long term last in peace. I mean thats their monday and thats what they should be doing and so its the these call for a ceasefire if the result of a recent mediation process that comes to such an a from the United Nations and we know also it seems to have been mediated by the times for humanitarian dialogue as well so i think the u. N. Is the actor at this point that is trying to bring together also that is different its National Actors and mediate among them and we know this is very important we have seen it in previous process i think some valid input got agreement back then that was happy that that was possible and to happen because that was that was an increase and someone gets National Office so i think the importance of the u. N. The state probably the but the prime a automation up with the issue a question that is very that to me and i know its very down to the libyans as well i think in countless occasions the libyan population as expressed its willingness to learn to in the country united and this is even the case could these forces in the east that might have a federal agenda but even the main and key Political Economic to that you can access that we see today for the governance National Accord. General have to that weve been talking about the they all have National Ambitions my sense is that these after they wont be content with a petition and these techniques what libyans want so i think this is the gender of a petition a something that is driven by foreign optus and i think one of the things that also motivated the school to call for a cease fire is for the leading up to that self to regain regain control and their National Sovereignty i want to thank all our guests enough of democracy ellis learning and joy of the morning and i want to thank you too for watching you can see the program again and he saw him by visiting over. Site out is there a dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at a j inside story for me among current and the entire team here and like now. On counting the cost cracks in the Global Economy stocks soared to record highs despite the coronavirus that make billionaires become richer but the poor get poorer so is it time to finally come from capitalism plus remaking china and president shes going to be. Counting the cost on aljazeera. Hi im Steve Clemons and i have a question to ask these days its hard to filter out the newly single track of whats really important even the bottom line tackles the big issues this is shaping the United States its people its economy and the way it deals with the rest of the world the bottom line only on aljazeera. I joined al jazeera as part of the launch team in 2006 protesters have called for a mini march in that time ive covered wars revolutions elections im going to treat poor sick crowds here in the real square remain very large and very vocal apologist 0 we cover the stories that matter the human stories. From the favelas of caracas to the battlefields around also i would drop just to get to the truth and empower people through knowledge. Played an Important Role in protecting human. Face. Your child is there with me the whole robin in doha a reminder of our top news stories the u. S. House of representatives has blocked changes to the postal system that threatened mail in voting ahead of the president ial election and politicians voted to give the agency 25000000000. 00 a rejected reforms that would have slowed mail delivery as patty call home reports. Its americas favorite Government Service by far the u. S. Postal service that is d until recently louis to joy a trump donor and loyalist was put in charge just about 2 months ago and quickly made changes to the financially unstable service