A great part of the country of mine that weve done were locked down we are the one rambling from mile where are the media going to go we go there and we give them a chance to tell their story. President for a 6th term the better russian leader claims a landslide victory the opposition call for a vote bring 1000 protesters are arrested is this a turning point for the country this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the show im samis a than his critics describe him as europes last dictator Alexander Lukashenko is set to rule the roost for a 6th term hes already been president for 26 years official results from sundays election say he won by a landslide but the opposition is rejecting that official result looking shanker as preelection popularity fell because of his handling of the krona virus pandemic and worsening economy he faced his toughest election challenger so far svetlana the one of sky a former teacher and stay at home mother with no political experience attracted huge support. Thought that was despite a crackdown on election rallies and on the other opposition candidates who were either jailed or barred from campaigning protesters battled with riot police in the capital minsk on sunday xander lucas shango started from Humble Beginnings he served with soviet border troops then ran a state farm before his rise to power he built his political career as an Anti Corruption politician and was elected president of belarus in 1904 is long being criticized for oppression though hes twice amended the constitution to scrap term limits and increase president ial powers hes ruled through state control of the economy and media the former soviet country had close ties with russia but the relationship with the kremlin soured when the coup shango turned towards the european union. But lets bring our guests into the show we have joining us from the ukraines capital kiev peter zalmai of hes the executive director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative in london alex cobb child of a Principal Research analyst at the Risk Consultancy i. H. S. Market he specializes in russia and Eastern Europe and on the phone from minsk we have asked the painter hes the robert bosch stiffed an academy fellow at the Chatham House institute in london welcome to you all if i could start then with the whore in minsk is this a turning point in belorussian history. Thanks a lot for how in the 1st place i would like to apologize that i will be. Lower than the rouge and they are going to be as i havent slept today with melted was actually a key moment to complain for she was 3 and it was really difficult to focus group anyway the main takeaway from my trolls is that actually bars d has Just Launched into. The crisis. Right now. Popular and yesterday full particulars of elections and use of army and police again blue so they completely bruised my team it seems that by using the trolls hell be in power for some time but tension between the whole different dimension will. They will continue and 2nd if that actually brings down the dont believe. Will be proven much any issues expect and political change the fianna get referred to for every piece on a grand isle the meter deep into debt for you if you want to just the change cant concretely just decide to fund the majority of the offense wanted ok lets bring in our legs if we could from london so alex listening to our real had to say that dont expect any serious political change this year he says so is the challenge to look at shankar right now not that serious. I think obviously what we have seen this year is that there is significant political mobilization against look at going against houston government however because look at who can control of the elite controls the electoral commissions and crucially he controls the police and the Security Services i think by using all these methods he will be likely to stay in power we have seen that his reelection has been recognized by a number of powerful foreign players particularly by russia and by china and with this external support he will be able to use the state apparatus which is in his disposal disposal in order to keep power in belarus pay to the end do you expect protests to grow are we looking at something thats going to be snuffed out very quickly or something that will grow with time. Why it is difficult to predict so far. One a century but the russians have not shows the vision courage of the last 2 days in the news and rome but on a look at this time theyre saying that they will we have seen the call go out on our. Feet on the internet that flickering in and out as you know it was shut down yesterday but there is still some sporadic connection people are able to connect to sporadically not only about all the through telegraph and other social and networks and they are calling for a lesson on those riots starting tomorrow but also to say time daily 7 pm rallies around the country there are able to get a sufficient force in the regions that they spell trouble look at and because mind you there if you are the services that they have special forces are also limited they have all been obviously into militias and that is their last quite a few years the Regional Centers are bad and pretty much the opposition must be a sufficient force in the region is never going to generate a little the spread very thin on the ground and that this may be true for so i wouldnt rule out the opposition yet but at the same time it is lucas general because at this point of the game it is because it is game to lose or i took a point papis to watch the region 3 whole you are in of course belarus what is your take on the state of the opposition in the region. Well actually very tricky question actually. Very very few friends there is no such thing as a position just. To. People who really would like to have a president thats actually a huge challenge for himself because he doesnt know which one she should try because im sure there are some ancient referring to those strong company. A commercial sector many general creative people are doing. It again. Actually there is no such skill to bishan a position its just a very very Huge Movement of people who just like to do is leaving it valerie hall who is leading the protests who is leading the coals for a strike i mean is that is it being led by the political opposition we know or some other figures or is this a very organic movement arising through the internet. Well thats true because it is actually the drop was announced by a had 22 years of bloggers who live in a divorce to use the most popular building. And she just amounted to just pull out and actually move to strike and right now defection is no longer legally perilous by a blogger even to both to thank you from north korea because actually everyone just would like to have and this is why people just full 82 days. And which might be. Yesterday focus was a trillion and by by didnt blow back and decided to come with. This if they didnt come in and actually shes not going to put it in any form is just that thats interesting alexandra how much power does the foam off of ition ready have and whether its mr tunnel skyla some of the other figures which are running for elections. Well think an oscar was the face of a protest vote so she wasnt opposition in the traditional sense meaning that she was part of an established Political Party a Political Movement with an ideological platform so shes quite different. In her candidacy was largely accidental and she became a reluctant face of the protest vote and fundamentally she you know she decided to run on a platform of becoming an interim head of state and still hold another election within the next 6 months which would be free and fair and open to anyone who wants to take part in it so shes not part of the established opposition which in case of balor a sister additionally linked to issues of identity politics which resonates only with certain parts of society but not wide social groups and classes which find you cannot square with her platform appealing so in a sense could we say. Perhaps peter that were seeing a realignment of Political Forces as alex said there the more traditional Political Forces are arranged around identity politics are we seeing the current opposition rise above that sort of classification or indeed i have to argue my have to go our muse based colleague who did say to write weve got this is not the opposition in the classical scares and i mentioned i mentioned it in this Opposition Movement very loose. Way because truly not being dire produce seems to be in opposition. I do believe that. The the independent pollsters have it right in fact the polar opposite of polling because of people who are opposite of what direction to reform it is it seems that a loss cant be him. By a landslide. And it just shows you that you could have run a house guest against the question what again i agree with my colleague and he will want are you gay and there is politics im not concerned about the actions now you have to keep in mind that you mentioned in your intro that the god with power for over a quarter of a century so essentially girls went straight from the soviet union to our one man strong as rule never really know why our democracy the way its current counterpart in that region have now its the law of ukraine so there is going to be a new spirit theyre tired after all sclerotic grew into question that theyre tired or i would use the analogy trying to build up all those latent gender beliefs is behind the wheel of the law they want to modernize theyre seeing that this government is unable to provide for them. This government has been characterized by very inept response to the coronavirus well here realize the potential for. The opposition well not to get the people who are written up against the question can may be discounting the problems of russia and there is the elephant hang on the floor we get around let me let me jump in and present perhaps the narrative that were getting from the officials there in authorities there. You know val line is basically that were seeing offers ition figures is not a simple case of a democratic uprising taking place these are opposition figures as officials have tried to cast them as being manipulated by outside powers and to use your analogy you wont be driving a tesla wont be driving a tall because the alternative to look at shanghai was a lot of instability which foreign powers ultimately want for better if thats the official line how do you respond to that peter. Well you know we dont really know but seems like its very very possible that may come out of these some of the candidates even those who were thrown in jail may have harbored secret sympathies or made secret deals with russia mr bush recall for example the one whos in jail he was. In fact in charge of a corporation that was a silly with the gas wrong for russian oil john so these things are unknown for now and discover you know the current leaders such as the ive spoken with them i spoke with them here on the streets of kiev where they were protesting last night that a bell Russian Embassy and that were staying away from a message in the russia which shows me that you know there is much we still the little and the group of one or soldiers or the 100. 00 agents that you mentioned that were arrested that may also be turning out to be a special operation either by the russians or why the lucas are going to sell to try to portray himself as the sole guarantor of the law in fairness there are just simply too many unknowns where are you have a clear picture of whats going on and what russia what russias goal is in all this lets make try and make the picture the clearer with regard to the sentiment of those protesters at least who have come out on the streets against the president and really whole what is galvanized the sentiment of those people so much against this president is it all down to his handling of the crime the virus i get that there are actually 3 main reasons why the focus from. The feds are to fill the gap for the. Many people that come back surely at my age. And myself i was born when i became 31 the difficult became pregnant for us and i actually. In my life. And many people many people are remote its all in 5. Seconds and i guess you do the boots and filming with kid needs to be lost to us and if you dont get it many people want to disappoint you bad for them to fly for their level of fly with. That ill become chief like former champion and then develop more prospects like bellows house less and less books that chair and actually was one of a b. Is the kind of fiction thing that actually going to get you because frankly has no foresight and that seems to be true and thats why people are pulling hard to do they just like to vote for her and they said theres an age of men mismanagement of the commitment to condemn the can balance with a shiny jests made everything seem to make people angry and if he means to kill him if im going to say colby he bland built for spreading desire and keep voting for b. To be why they left susceptible to the virus though he was Seasons Management during the pandemic named everyone in the sense that actually did not just believe in the just dont dream of kids about the companies and doesnt care if youve been involved health of the triad really people became very angry the root for some mindless spree. All right lets take some of those points and alex the belorussian economy as we hope pointed out it has weakened has no i mean weve gone from a situation where it had a growth of over 10 percent annual growth of over 10 percent in the early 2000 and now its projected to shrink 4 percent i think this year why has the economy worsened so much while in the in the recent years the economy didnt do particularly well and this is largely due to the fact that there have been no Structural Reforms the economy still dominated by large scale a state owned when you factor in enterprises and the state fundamentally dominates the many sectors of the economy from agriculture to manufacturing there are some bright spots in the Services Sector. Which has been really badly hit by the coronavirus by endemic despite the fact that valeries didnt introduce any lockdown measures or social distancing roles but are the people of these they reacted to the fact that there is this. Health care situation going on and theyve adjusted their behavior and as a result you know the Services Sector which was much more vibrant and mostly privately owned has been quite badly hit by it. With the government not wishing to reform the economy further obviously the prospects for growth are there are limits it and i completely agree with who are the the Living Standards in bellerose have been largely stagnant in the past 10 years and this is one of the factors which drives people to these protests or at what hasnt been stagnant is the relationship with russia and peter as you explained weve weve heard the president come out and accuse the wagner group of conducting illicit operations in the country. Does this offer an opening for the west to increase its influence and leverage and does that mean that belarus will have little opportunity but to align itself perhaps closer with the west now. Well you know just to begin that and what our colleague just said to add another element to the. Economic woes that were witnessing is the last 2 years clinton basically cut its. Oil and gas subsidies developers and i think honestly that has been made and thats the most prominent the responsible for the downfall of all develop russian economists because theres a kind of decline that will be witnessing well and yet coming back to the situation of there was a group that seems to be gathered by the question of whether it was orchestrated by him whether it was once again we dont know exactly what they were doing whether they were big words to use them all but its yet another example of how. You balance the russia and the west and he tried to going to this there where he was there is so guarantor of the russians are going to be a get out of russias encroaching war the e. U. Now it is a moment or 2 they lifted in 2016 there are sanctions against the loose and now well after several statements by european politicians that they probably will not recognize the legitimacy d of the election theyre facing another star wars will they remember all of these elections and if they do what next will they serve holzer binding between bush and wouldnt as a result and lose the rules altogether that is a very very difficult question the Baltic States are saying theyre going to be. Working with the opposition closer you get some ukrainian lawmakers there say there is the green declaring militias illegitimate so once again very very confusing chad just bored with easy and you are does not have maybe advantageous moves it is a very good. Using chess board let me go back to alex in london what do you think is the calculation that most western powers are going to make out of this theyre going to put their principles and care for democracy 1st or going to say hey you know come at a country slip per closer to russia well i think it will be very difficult for e. U. Countries to ignore what is happening in valorous particularly if if were going to see more violence by the police and Security Services towards Peaceful Protesters in the coming days there have been already. Calls to introduce political sanctions against bellary cilicia weeks before the election because hundreds have been arrested prior to the election and now with this new renewed violence and with the fact that there are obviously questions about legitimacy of the election and legality of the status of of the of the president. There will be even more calls for this we know that some of the neighboring countries particular poland and lithuania are calling for urgent meeting of the European Council and i think they will be they will be urging. Certain actions by the e. U. In order to prevent further violence in areas in both wrists ok im sure the president of course has a lot of power but there are others in the picture right there are networks associated with. Go there are the soviet era bureaucrats how do you see the centers of power figuring out where they put which direction they push the country right now. Well if he does belong forces institute an agency the most thoughtful and become. Happy by having a computing now to prove bad effect unless. Another sensitive really wants to fulfill the question. And then he has to use them and to command and reply to sit there is to pay. Them off to combat go to verdun times and them and then my b. N. Its hard to believe dippy on to prove they coming in between themselves and to receive some benefit from need and then vested. Because it seems that if you show the same time as if you speak about. Me with truth then confucians would be the system weve seen that actually naming names the people trying to lose right now and seeing that not so many competent legal i truly believe there are inside the system and my few a bit actually in for becoming much much worse in becoming me because well because im told we have a binding with those who respond with an economy but he that you had no real experience to become real commune that security agencies and the fools on the path of the potential demonstration also from the security agencies so basically we have like the follow up people from the few attendances teams that they love be who you know cause the hall to do you just to have bread the people by direction of the how to develop become true too big to be filthy shit from them i think we can all agree there are some really challenging tonfa have some of the resort to leave it there for now the last Time Congress very much to. My of all its called child of and of course joining us on the phone rehearse the penya thank you for watching this show to you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion head over to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com ford slash a. J. Inside story can also join the conversation on twitter handle there is and a. J. Inside story from e. Sam is a ballad the whole tune here for now is go buy. Exploited men use the killing. And i would like to make the charge call that feels the finest says that forge the steel chain didnt make shoes the trade that exploits them and. Penetrates Global Markets slavery a 21st century evil continues to chalk all slaves on aljazeera the u. S. 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