President for a 6 about a russian leader claims a landslide victory the opposition call for a vote ring 1000 protesters are arrested is this a turning point for the country this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the show im samis day than his critics describe him as europes last dictator Alexander Lukashenko is set to rule the roost for a 6th term hes already been president for 26 years official results from sundays election say he won by a landslide but the opposition is rejecting that official result looking shanker as preelection popularity fell because of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and worsening economy he faced his toughest election challenger so far svetlana the one of scalia a former teacher and stay at home mother with no political experience attracted huge support that was despite a crackdown on election rallies and on the other opposition candidates who were either jailed or barred from campaigning protesters battled with riot police in the capital minsk on sunday xander started from Humble Beginnings he served with. Soviet border troops then ran a state farm before his rise to power he built his political career as an Anti Corruption politician and was elected president of belarus in 1994 hes long been criticized for oppression though hes twice amended the constitution to scrap term limits and increase president ial powers hes ruled through state control of the economy and media the former soviet country had close ties with russia but the relationship with the kremlin soured when the question co turned towards the european union. Lets bring our guests into the show we have joining us from the ukraines capital kiev. Have hes the executive director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative in london alex cobb child of a Principle Research analyst at the Risk Consultancy i. H. S. Market he specializes in russia and Eastern Europe and on the phone from minsk we have the pena hes the robert stiffed on academy fellow at the Chatham House institute in london welcome to you all if i could start then with 3 hor in minsk is this a turning point in belarusian history thanks a lot from harry hopefully. We can play lower than a rouge. Health club but not it was actually a true low mental blow sent to shoot through penetrate really brutal to forestry anyway. My troll actually. d has just launched. The question right now. Related to creation of a large and Beautiful Army and political blue so they completely brutal actually. If by using forms for fuel to power put some plan tension between the authorities information. They will remain 2nd but ive actually done. Will be proven by any ritual to tackle political change the reality of real 44 is if you plan. To just change can come quickly. From the majority of bills since one ok lets bring in alex if we could from london so alex listening to our radio had to say they dont expect any serious political change this year he says so is the challenge to look at shankar right now not that serious and i think obviously what we have seen this year is that there is significant political mobilization against location and against his government however because controls the elite he controls the electro commissions and crucially he controls the police and the Security Services i think by using all these methods he will be likely to to stay in power we have seen that his reelection has been recognized by a number of powerful foreign players particularly you know by russia and by china and with this external support he will be able to use the state apparatus which is in his disposal disposal in order to keep power in belarus pay to the end do you expect protests to grow are we looking at something thats going to be snuffed out very quickly or something that will grow with time. Why is difficult to predict so far. One a century but the russians have not shows the vision courage of the last 2 days in the news rome but on a look at this time theyre saying that they will we have seen the call go out on our. Feet on the internet snickering it out you know it will shut down yesterday but there is still some sporadic connection people are able to connect to sporadically not only about a whole lot through telegraph and other social and networks and they are calling for the last analysis right starting tomorrow but also at the same time daily 7 pm rallies around the country there are able to get a sufficient force in the regions that they spell trouble look at and because mind you there if you are the services that they have special forces are also limited they have all been obviously in tamil and that is their last quite a few years the Regional Centers are bad and pretty much the opposition must be a sufficient force in the region is that a little going to change a little be spread very thin on the ground and that this may be useful or so i wouldnt rule out the opposition yet but at the same time it is lucas general because at this point of the game it is because it is the to lose or i took a point papis to watch the region 3 hole you are in of course belarus what is your take on the state of the opposition in the region. Well actually a very tricky question actually came. From there is no such thing as a position just. To. People who really would like to have a president thats actually huge challenge for himself because he doesnt know which one she should try because im sure there are some ancient referring to those strong companies. The. Commercial sector many general creative people are doing. It again. Actually most such schemes. Is just very very Huge Movement of people who just like to do is leaving it valerie hall who is leading the protests who is leading the coals for a strike i mean is that is it being led by the political opposition we know or some other figures or is this a very organic movement arising through the internet. Well thats. True because actually the process was announced by a had 22 years of blogger who lived in a divorce to use the multiple to build it. And she just amounted to people just pulled and actually was driving right now defection is no longer legally perilous vald a blogger even about to thank you for most because actually everyone just would like to have and then why people just full 82 days. And which might be those employees we have today spoken for in this room and bye bye didnt go back and decided to come with. This if they didnt come in and actually shes not going to come to any sort of just that thats interesting alexandra how much power does the foam off of ition ready have and whether its miss tunnel skyla some of the other figures which are running for elections. Wealthy can oscar was the face of a protest vote so she wasnt opposition in the traditional sense meaning that she was part of an established Political Party a Political Movement with an ideological platform so shes quite different. In her candidacy was largely accidental and she became a reluctant face of the protest vote and fundamentally she you know she decided to run on a platform of becoming an interim head of state and still hold another election within the next 6 months which would be free and fair and open to anyone who wants to take part in it so shes not part of the established opposition which in case of belarus sister additionally link to issues of identity politics which resonates only with certain parts of society but not wide social groups and classes which find you cannot square with her platform appealing so in a sense could we say. Perhaps peter that were seeing a realignment of Political Forces as alex said there the more traditional Political Forces are arranged around identity politics are we seeing the current opposition rise above that sort of classification or indeed i have to argue i have to go are a muse based colleague who did say to write it go this is not the opposition in the classical stairs and i mentioned i mentioned it in this Opposition Movement very loose. Way because truly not being dire coach who seems to be in opposition. I do believe that you know the the independent forces have it right in fact the polar opposite of polling because of people who are opposite of what direction to reform it is it seems that a loss cant be him. By a landslide. And it just shows you that you couldnt run a house guest against the question once again i agree with my colleague and he will want are you gay and there is politics im not concerned actions now you have mine you mentioned in your intro to god with power over a quarter of a century so essentially girls went straight from the soviet union to our one man strong as rule never really knowing our democracy the way its kind of counterpart in that region have now its the law of ukraine so there is going to be a new syria theyre tired of the whole sclerotic grew into question that theyre tired or i would use the analogy trying to read up all those latent gender beliefs is behind the wheel of the law they want to modernize theyre seeing that this government is unable to provide for them. This government has been characterized by their in their response to the coronavirus well here realize the potential for. The opposition well not against the people who are risks not against children maybe discounting the problems of russia there is the elephant hang on the floor we get around let me let me jump in and present perhaps the narrative that were getting from the officials there in authorities there. You know val line is basically that were seeing offers ition figures is not a simple case of a democratic uprising taking place these are opposition figures as officials have tried to cast them as being manipulated by outside powers and to use your analogy you wont be driving a tesla wont be driving a tall because the alternative to look at shankar is a lot of instability which foreign powers ultimately want for better if thats the official line how do you respond to that peter. Well you know what we dont really know but seems like its very very possible may come out of this some of the candidates even those who were thrown in jail may have harbored the secret sympathies or made secret deals with russia mr bush recall for example the one whos in jail he was. In fact in charge of a corporation that was a silly with the gas wrong for russian oil john so these things are unknown for now and discover you know the current leaders such as the i have spoken with them i spoke with them here on the streets of kiev when they were protesting last night of the bell russian embassies and that is that we are staying away from a message in the russia which shows me that you know there is much we still the little and the group of one or soldiers or the 100. 00 agents that you mentioned that were arrested that may also be turn out to be a special operation either by the russians or by the lucas are going to sell to try to portray himself as the sole guarantor of the law in fairness there are just simply too many unknowns where are you have a clear picture of whats going on and what russia what russias goal is in all this lets make try and make the picture the clearer with regard to the sentiment of those protesters at least who have come out on the streets against the president and really whole what is galvanized the sentiment of those people so much against this president is it all down to his handling of the crime the virus so i guess that there are actually 3 main reasons why the focus from. The cat so it still gets people that. Many people. Actually are my age. And myself i was born when you can put them in the chicken became pregnant ballots for us and i actually in my life far repute. And many people many people a low its are really fired. The 2nd thing i. Should mention for the last. Many people im just disappointed in the best quality of life for their level of life with they feel that all the countries like poland mean that theyre developing their Health Prospects dollars have less and less books that each year and actually was one of the the 2nd thing that actually got me because shankar has no prospects and that seems to be true and thats why people are pulling her i. Q. They just like to vote for her and the fed is doing just. Mismanagement of the congress and then the can balance. Jess made everything to make people angry and he she called if im going to say call be to blame for spreading the virus. You voted for b. To be needed why they left susceptible to the buyer those who would see the management of the pandemic everyone in the stand that actually did not just really doesnt really care about the companies and doesnt care if youve been involved Healthy People require people became very angry the beat for you saw my industry all right lets take some of those points and alecs the better russian economy as we help wanted it has weakened has now i mean weve gone from a situation where it had growth of over 10 percent annual growth of attempt a cent in the early 2 thousands and now its projected to shrink 4 percent. Why has the economy wasnt much. Well in the in the recent years the economy didnt do particularly well and this is largely due to the fact that there have been no Structural Reforms the economy still dominated by large scale a state owned when you factor in enterprises and the state fundamentally dominates the many sectors of the economy from agriculture to manufacturing there are some bright spots in the Services Sector. Which has been really badly hit by the coronavirus by endemic despite the fact that valeries didnt introduce any lockdown measures or social distancing roles but of the people of this they reacted to the fact that the rest. Health care situation going on and theyve adjusted their behavior and as a result you know the Services Sector which was much more vibrant and mostly privately owned has been quite badly hit by it. With the government not wishing to reform the economy further obviously the prospects for growth are there are limits of and i completely agree with who are the the Living Standards in belarus have been largely stagnant in the past 10 years and this is one of the factors which drives people to these protests and why what hasnt been stagnant is the relationship with russia and peter as you explain weve weve heard the president come out and accuse the wagner group of conducting illicit operations in the country. Does this offer an opening for the west to increase its influence and leverage and does that mean that belarus will have little opportunity but to align itself perhaps closer with the west now. Well and you know just being in that and what our colleague just said to add another element to all it is the. Economic woes that were witnessing is the last 2 years lou basically cut its. Oil and gas subsidies developers and i think honestly that has been made and thats the most proximate factor responsible for the downfall of all develop russian economy because this is a kind of decline that we witnessing well and yet going back to the situation of there was a group that seems to be gathered by the question of whether it was orchestrated by him whether it was once again we dont know exactly what they were doing whether or not they were ready to use them all but its yet another example of how. The battle between russia and the west and he tried going to this there where he was there is so guarantor of the russians are going to be against russias encroaching quality you now it is a moment or 2 they lifted the infant out of the sea is there sanctions against the loose and now or after several statements by european politicians that they probably will not recognize the legitimacy of the election theyre facing another star wars will they remain both of these elections and if they do what next will they serve holzer binding the congressional and wouldnt as a result and lose the rules altogether that is a very very difficult question the Baltic States are saying theyre going to be. Working with the opposition closer to greater lawmakers or say theyre considering declaring a show of illegitimate so once again very very confusing chads just bored with easy and youre europe does not have maybe advantageous moves it is a very good. Fusing chess board let me go back to alex in london what do you think is the calculation that most western powers are going to make out of this were going to put their principles and care for democracy 1st or going to say hey you know come out a country slip per closer to russia well i think it will be very difficult for e. U. Countries to ignore what is happening in valorous particularly if if were going to see more violence by the police and Security Services towards Peaceful Protesters in the coming days they have been already. Coals to introduce political sanctions against the recently to ship weeks before the election because hundreds have been arrested prior to the election and now with this new renewed violence and with the fact that there are obviously questions about legitimacy of the election and legality of the status of of the of the president. There will be even more calls for this we know that some of the neighboring countries particular poland and lithuania are calling for urgent meeting of the European Council and i think they will be they will be urging. Certain actions by the e. U. In order to prevent further violence in areas in both wrists ok im sure the president of course has a lot of power but there are others in the picture right there are networks associated with. Go there are the soviet era bureaucrats how do you see the centers of power figuring out where they put which direction they push the country right now. Well if he does belong forces institute an agency the most thoughtful and becomes rich. Happy by having a competing now to prove bad effect unless. Unless sensitive really wants to fulfill the question. And he has to use them and to command and reply to sit there is to pay. Them off for that go to verdun times and them and then b. N. It far has to be dippy own to prove they can and between themselves and to receive some benefits from need and then vested. Because this is their future the same time as if you speak about. Move with truth insufficiency belief system weve seen that actually naming names the people trying to lose right now and seeing that not so many competent legal. Right inside the system and my few a bit actually in for become much much worse in the economy because well because im told we have a binding with those who respond with an economy but he actually had no real experience to become real commune that security agencies and the fools on the path of the potential demonstration also from the security agencies so basically we have like the follow up. From the few attendances to the dave was the loony no cause the hard to do the just to correct the people by direction of the how to develop become true too big to be filthy shit from them i think we can all agree there are some really challenging tonfa heads about the resort to leave it that for now the last Time Congress very much pieces on. My of charge of and of course joining us on the phone rehearse the penya thank you for watching this show too you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion head over to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com ford slash a. J. Inside story and also join the conversation on twitter handle there is an a. J. Inside story from me sam is a bad the whole team here is go by. 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