Its a family that has been at the heart of power in sri lanka for years now that aim to strengthen the whip as voters go to polls so how crucial is the election this time and why does sri lanka matter this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program. Or not to buy and behind the. 2 brothers who have long shaped sri lankas politics theyre known for their role in and during the 26 year war against tamil separatists now seeking to extend their familys rule over the island nation president go to bias party aims to win a 2 thirds majority in wednesdays parliamentary election he needed to amend the constitution and restore president ial powers curve and the changes to legislate into 1015 the Prime Minister mahinda wants to be reelected many fear fractures within the opposition could help the road when are trite such a victory would concern defenders of human rights who accuse them of abusing power cracking down on the stand. On this report from colombo. Well indeed i think his son dylan was abducted september 2008. He was one of 11 young men kidnapped to be ransomed a group within the Sri Lankan Navy including its highest ranking officers have been implicated. We just want our child and 12 years we havent been told whether hes alive or not so much information has been uncovered one can get away we dont even care if they do but the officers or whoever allowed this injustice must be punished human rights activists this and similar cases involving the disappearances of 100 the tamils after the 26 year conflict with the tamil tigers will be forgotten then sri lanka and go to the polls on wednesday the Sri Lanka Peoples Party led by the rajapaksa brothers is expected to win. President then Prime Minister mind the family will protect war heroes who brought a queue ssion ensure National Security subcommittee and bring prosperity. The president s party must come to power to take this Program Forward we require a 2 thirds majority for this amendments needed to the constitution or else we need to change the constitution president ial powers were weakened and those of the parliament strengthened under an amendment passed by m. P. s in 2015 and only see any reversal would be detrimental as far as to. If that arch boxes get close enough all it will be out of the window. And therefore you will have a strong authoritarian government i think the general tendency the brand as it were of the dr burke says that the majority of authoritarian dispensation but this doesnt seem to want emotion longer than for many rajapaksa appear the best option given their handling of the corona Virus Outbreak and the negative perceptions of the previous government including security failures that led to one of the worst bombing in sri lanka on Easter Sunday 2019 the Main Opposition United National Party has been ripped apart by infighting and hes contesting the election separately we dont know how to carry. The. Ministration. Was screened. It was a license incompetent people was he was exhibited the Leadership Qualities im not because nobody no lines. In the political system. Was very funny and sincerely believe that we possess the requisite capabilities to Carry Forward with National Agenda and any say low voter turnout is possible and spheres of 19 may keep people in the we from the ballot boxes winning the general election will be the easy part there are multiple challengers but a looming economic crisis aggravated by the credit of august and demick will severely test the next government here in sri lanka. Families like the vitter thing has tried not. Enough and and aljazeera colombo. Lets not get a false of our guests joining us in. Sri lanka. Dr kahana for musher one can ambassador to the United Nations in colombo get one going to locate Research Oxford university and to london bindiya. Of the University College london a warm welcome to you all miss a pulitzer how crucial of these elections why should it be considered a turning point in sri lankan history i think its a very important election. You know what is happening in this country over the last 5 years every. This journey between the president and Prime Minister the country not move forward at all and then having eliminated terror its 2009 its already mentioned we had one of the worst terrorist attacks. On Easter Sunday in 2098 youre not economy no. Wonder people. So its very very important. That these elections produce. That real big free country out of all the morass its all in and then a majority of the people expect that expect. Ministration that taking over. After tomorrow to be capable able to eat me piece multiple check its very important ok and i believe that it is so important that the forces were going towards about the regional implications of the election get hand is there. Any chance that the s p p which is the ruling sri lankan. Party will secure the 2 thirds majority needed for it to move forward and take all the decisions in the near future including charting a new constitution i think its difficult to speculate on what the outcome of tomorrows voting would be because we really dont know what the turnout is going to be i think it is very likely that the s. L. B. Will do very well in the election whether they would secure 150. 00 seats in parliament is anyones guess and i dont im not in a position to really speculate on the exact numbers i think theyll get fairly close but whether they would secure the 2 thirds majority after tomorrows warding is it really going to be dependent on the turnout and speaking about the turnout of india the d. P. Is looking forward to see a higher voter turnout to be able to secure a Comfortable Lead were talking against the backdrop of covert 19 what kind of impact with a pen demick have on the verge of think. I think if there is and overarching the human relation to this election its probably uncertainty and certainly the uncertainty has been magnified by the fact that sri lanka along with the rest of the world has been really put to the test in terms of how its dont do it abandon mic as well as i mean the kind of social and Economic Impacts of it as well and we know that sri lanka is in quite a precarious position it cannot because and this sort of 5 months or so has had Significant Impact on peoples livelihoods in a very kind of every day sense so i think the voters will be looking at the way in which they fear this has been managed in the past few months as well and i think thats going to have an implication but election and i agree with dan in the sense that i dont think we can predict what the outcome would be and it would definitely be determined by who shows up to her because even that involves quite a bit of risk because were thinking of you know publics gathering were thinking about you know contact and difficulties and social distancing and so on so there is going to be a lot of variables i think determine the outcome pilot or go to by a and beyond to have been talking during the campaign about how they have banished in a way or another to contain the artwork took over 1000. 00 but 4 of those giving the army sweeping powers having them in charge of basically everything in sri lanka is of the isnt this something that could further undermine the basic tenets of democracy in sri lanka. There are 2 points i would like make response to your question run is that sri lanka does because weve 93. 00 that its exemplary we have had only 11 deaths so far and most of those will be detected the interaction after trying to cope having been cured. This is largely that its all eccentric well orchestrated services or the state trying to free had service and of course the Security Services who were responsible for ready detecting and tracing. Individuals who were infected. And because of those fact its not case now although most of the vote and i say is pretty coarse because nobody can predict that on the verge of winning the battle that its 19 not the 2nd question relating to giving the military whole subbasement. Extensive powers. That helped in dealing with it go it 90 it is because we deployed the Security Services effective not in and in a manner that to suppress it but. Again this is something that has been haunting them all the time they are widely seen by the people trying to militarize the country i think you have not been in touch with the people of this country that the average person doesnt care as long as hes not say as long as hes not infected while this is something on the people it wasnt d for them i think this is something that under these for you for lanka will decide when they go to the polls get high and weve been talking about the p. P. But at the same time what about. The partys wyverns particularly the un p. And the c. J. B. Do they have any chance to mount a strong challenge against the b. P. Again i think its important to look at the messaging in the lead up to the election i think the s. L. B. B. Has defined the messaging and the other parties particularly the b. B. Have been sort of reactive the unique selling point of these parties have not been particularly clear whereas some of the smaller parties have actually come up with specific alternatives to what the s. And p. Is offering so in a way i think the 2000000 parties that are contesting. This election have been in a battle against each other and in this context we may see the results actually showing that internal conflict rather than a clear messaging that contrasts with the bibis messaging on security and stability so i think were going to see the results reflect that. Of india both u. M. P. And j. B. Have a chance to defend their political platform agenda during the campaign instead they were just back stabbing each other is something that will further deplete the power base of the 2 opposition parties. I think so and i think by now there seems to be a lack of clarity as to what the opposition stands for and i think this is going to negatively affect them in towns if people arent really sure what the alternatives are because there has been a very kind of clear absence of these parties articulating what their stance is and what that platinum is more significant maybe especially given the added pressure of. Its current global moment. Political rajapaksa widely seen as trying to champion the narrative of the sin hollies buddhist majority of the country paving the way for a nationalistic author italian regime in the in the country is that this is something that could further alienate the other minorities in the country i think straight ahead with this majority and it is quite possible that most of them do it all for d their efforts and i ordered the opposition is not a cat that is credible. But that question whether it be a have a Proper Office should talk of elections in a democracy you need an office and you need this process by the estimate that it end up reporting is another question. But that the minorities are worried about that out but i believe that there is a kind. Which highlights the fact that the minorities are or should be very. I can see why this suggestion should be made. There are many members was community and that kind of community behind. My garage as they have been saying dont let it get out and it is quite possible that the minority so also look for stability and predictability stability security wise predictability economy rights built for the right ok to the opposition which is in sixes and sevens all right then dia for the tamils whats next given the fact that if it was a pass when a mans the constitution because the powers of the provincial councils in most likely going to lose a lot in the near future. I mean i think there are very real reasons for people to be concerned and i think the fear is something that is relevant given you know the long history of the way in which. The sri lankan stand in particular the rights back to government have dealt with issues to do it Transitional Justice demands and other political grievances coming from the Tamil Community and we know that militarization and securitisation has disproportionately affected the not going east of the ira and and this is something that people have to live with and reckon with every day so not wanting to you know live in such a situation or with such fear is constant is understandable but i think its very difficult to say what kind of bible or tentative will be given also this kind of complication with the opposition and the kind of challenges that we are doing with this yet particularly im thinking mostly in relation to things like livelihood which has consistently been a problem in the north and east in terms of access and so on and it has gotten much us this year with the kind of you know very strict curfew tannish than may have been necessary in order to control it at the same time you know right thinking about peoples. Everyday needs ability to survive you know right next to the family lets talk more about the other minorities and this is going to be a question for vendi of india when it comes to the muslims they feel that they have been sort of demonized by the political establishment against a backdrop of the 2001000 bombings is this something which is going to just further isolate them. I think one of the things that has kind of continued unchecked is a lot of political rhetoric that demonizes minorities and while there are all these sort of very glib proclamations made about how that is inclusive and sound of breaks to invest and so on i think we see a significant contradiction in this particularly in relation to election campaigning where i receive. 9 again majority candidates. Demonizing criticizing. Minority community is and weve also seen this happen you know since the end of the war consistently so its nothing new at event anything magnified by lust lets lets go now to. If the s l p p wins and. Majority here will the party will move forward to amend the constitution of the by that theyre definitely going to give the presidency sweeping powers paving the way to what amounts to an authoritarian rule what would be the general sentiment among the people in sri lanka if that happens. So i actually want to agree with dr cohen who mentioned that a functioning democracy really needs a good opposition and i think thats a really important point and we need to remind ourselves that an opposition exists in parliament now the fact that were having an election despite a Public Health challenge is admirable and i think its the right thing to do but its been necessary necessitated by an early dissolution of parliament remember parliament was dissolved 6 months before its term came to an end it was dissolved on the 2nd of march because the government lacked a majority in parliament it was of course the politically astute thing to do but this situation became irregular when it turned out that the country couldnt have an election due to court in 1000 so in such a situation the constitution actually provides for the reasoning of parliament for an emergency session and that option wasnt taken so we neither had a parliament nor an election and in fact we didnt have an elected legislature for more than 150 days in this country actually quite pleased that an irregular situation is now being rectifying well have a new parliament by the 20th of august so in a sense we would need a functional opposition in order to really ensure that that. The political domestic politics are concerned lets move forward to the and international. Context of these elections if you dont mind police this is going to be monitored by everyone and if the riser packs are secure a Comfortable Lead control the lid everything the legislation along with the presidency many people would be concerned the indians in particular because they consider the result access to be politically and economically beholden to the chinese. Again. India youll recall that when the president read it so could have a record of a selected it was india 3 and. Hold them in it in the future. I do not think indians are particularly concerned about that other parts but rather parts its got on very little bit. Before the end of the conflict and in fact if not for indian blessing it is quite likely that the conflict would have continued for much longer so. I think its overall characterized i dont think they can come to as ations and ill tell you why because the indians have been expressing concerns about the chinese using the military as his like. Colombia ports i mean this is pat you could you could say that about anybody the chinese or anyone else we have somebody could have because we have got an ex or 2 excellent airfields you could say that about anybody white the chinese and of course if they get on that. Kind of briefly if you dont like like very well to be on it maybe its going to be the chinese show and then you can was d it not the worst. I mean the conflict and sri lanka needed funds we needed funds desperately and very quickly we time every possible lead the world bank i. M. F. Then we turned to the press and drained you know funds so forthcoming ringback so we had to turn to the one country that had spac and china and it doesnt mean that we. Get the children ages check and it gave us the presence we use a concept you put up and said it briefly im going to go to go and then i have to go now to get hand to hand is this something which is going to win by the p. P. Is it going to further bolster the status of china interlingua. I mean the government hasnt made any. Is not made a mystery of its relationship with china weve definitely seen an increase in that relationship being put on display i think theres no doubt that thats one of the unique selling points of this government its close relationship with china but of course i do think that it has also displayed a close affinity to india and there is that balancing act that is taking place. In the region so i dont think that there would be a gravitation to words china at the expense of the relationship with india the president himself has expressed a lot of admiration for the Prime Minister in india so i think there will be a balancing act the question to ask is whether there would be a marginalization in terms of western interest and i think thats where there would be questions raised as to whether or on the global front. Would be able to retain its historical position as a nonaligned nation and i think thats an important. Move an advance that needs to take place indeed in the next 5 years thats why i maintain that trying to show and thats why other countries like japan and the analysis of america will be looking forward to see what happens next in such a complex Political Landscape unfortunately were running out of time but well definitely revisit the story in the coming days political get hung going to be india but thank you very much indeed for your contribution to the program. Thank you too for watching you can see the program again and its time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Insights or you can also join the conversation on twitter our hand there is a j inside story from me. And the entire team here in doha live and. I. 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