Hi im Steve Clements and i have a question well the coronavirus pandemic be the Tipping Point that takes us into years of joblessness and poverty lets get to the bottom line. When we look around we see a lot of people who cant find work and a lot of businesses that have gone bust but there are some winners out there it seems like the Financial Markets are always winning at least from my Vantage Point economists usually say that they saw what was coming after the fact there are always rationalizations for the ups and downs of markets or of jobless rates of consumer and Business Confidence but lets take a look at the big picture my guest today is not afraid to go where many economists wont and to look at the key factors out there that predict a really serious financial and to some degree even social and environmental meltdown affecting each and every one of us all over the world hes not known as dr doom for nothing nuria were being he predicted the us Real Estate Market crash 3 years before everything came tumbling down in 2008 professor roubini teaches economics and International Business at New York University and he joins us from new york today nouriel thanks so much for joining us i was very very taken with main street manifesto it seemed to sort of break through the noise that there is a stacked deck against people on a lot of fronts well before the pandemic hit and the pandemic is in a sense sped up history and you continue to find people that are not going to be winners in this and the system slowly coming undone even if there are flirtations with what looks like you know growth etc tell us what. The the real message behind main street manifesto was when the reality is that globalization trade Migration Technology many factors that lead to an increase in income and wealth inequality after the Global Financial crises for him slash jobs and when they start that the reality of people who are not full time jobs or the formal employment of full benefits there were mostly contractors freelancers gorka as hourly workers hired and workers so we had a huge amount of job and income and certainly for labor the share of profit has gone up the share of labor in comp sol and and this time around i think its going to be even worse because the conditions of their corporate sector today are much worse than they where after the Global Financial crisis so we have shed in 3 months in the us more jobs than we create than the previous 10 years and i think itll be a repeat of the same if and when firms are going to start to hire again its going to be in ways that the same surely out of precarious jobs that part time that hourly that i get work and so on and so on so we have created their vast underclass of what an economist guy standing called the breakout yet instead of their planet money out there young people and theyre not just necessarily minorities like africanamericans or latinos there is a vast underclass of White America that is that job less income less skill less hope less less with that no assets and these are actually struggling as much as anybody else who ever had their opulent that epidemic in the United States 80000 young people dying every year of all over those enter and majority of them are actually these part of these white underclass so when i saw that these are the Proper Office and the most racially member i you know its after their killing of the. George floyd yes it was about black lives not there it was also about Racial Justice but was also about Economic Justice and even a bit of the new york where every day there are the most racially of thousands of young kids going improv this thing and i actually almost 80 percent of them are white or not black and latino on the because there is there is a bystander class of young people that are on the an 8 that are frustrated they dont have jobs epic ideas jobs and they feel there is no future for them so its a revolution of their great carry out rather than marred some of proletariats well you and Thomas Piketty and there are a number of other writers as you just mentioned who who had to the writer who mentioned precariat hat have seen these tensions these economic tensions but the main street that the mainstream of economics those are out there every day investing in the markets talking about you know 4000000 new jobs being created even though 44000000 people are unemployed officially from this what is it take the economics profession to get beyond these blind spots so that that they see what you see well you know many people are looking only at the stock market but wall street and main street every different interests was state represents a big firms big stack big banks one main street is hauser olds is a war curse and these are Small Businesses and whats good for was that unfortunately is bad for main street because theyre way more storms are going to survive and thrive in achieve the urban started get out of wall street got to see the is by slashing their cost and what are the costs that slashing that we should be labor costs but your labor cost is my labor income and my consumption and you know up and s. And p. 500 is going to your eyes because the big firms are going to become bigger while millions of Small Business says great they are sharps Small Enterprises are going to go bust. That the market share big back in big business is going to rise so people usually think that was in a mainstay that the same interest aware very early a social cost conflict right now whats good for was these bait the bait for main street and unfortunately if we dont there are changes in Economic Policy in a more direction that is progress even implausible than the success of was that it is going to come at the expense of main street and whats happening right now is that those who are suffering are workers our consumers our households our Small Businesses what big business is becoming even more powerful or even more of the police that you know more concentration of economic financial and other types of political power now you have written that globalization is coming apart that nationalism is rising walls are back its going to be harder to move people and ideas and money and institutions across lines like used to be the case is this not a possible fix for the mainstream problem doesnt this move an economy to begin looking at what you need in your own economy as opposed to buying it cheaply somewhere else or in a place that has low environmental regulations while it can if its done in their progressive any pathogen way. In many ways that protection is 1st of all her work areas as consumers because it increases the price of import that goods cheaply from china manage up saw as a consumer youre going to be worse off so its a very regressive tax tool even if we are going to have every shoring of Economic Activity from china to the United States big business going to decide to have factories that are fully out to make that weve roberts so we may create more production more profits im not sure were going to create jobs unless we have seen incentives to create that labor and jobs that in this kind of things and migration in many ways is good for us. Merik up as brought up on earth ship brought people that initiative as brought people like myself and others when it comes to be a threat to society so putting a wall of tidy the center wall of block immigration doesnt resolve the fundamental problem that people need education the skills the the Human Capital in need to survive and thrive in the digital and globalized economy and by the way even if tomorrow we were to ever want so nobody can get in the United States even if read on a percentage of from foreign goods technology in the future is going to these are many jobs more than a migration or globalization im fraid of your one example if and when were about animals because you have millions of better only if the reivers the going to be without jobs youll have millions of our Truck Drivers are not going to have jobs saw the next 10 Years Technology rather than train the globalization of migration has got to be the big theres a out there of income and jobs and no working in governance so we have to think about how we make sure that people can survive and thrive in this Digital Economy otherwise were fighting their wars of the past rather than the wars of the future look you worked in the Clinton White house in fact i think i 1st met you when you worked in the National Economic council in the Clinton White house i was in the senate at the times you know how this town works you know about policy and politics and ive been fascinated by you know the bravado of donald trump on one hand being the populist president a stand simply responding to these workers you just talked about who fear for their jobs he fear for their families but yet you said hes not that at all well you know iran is a populist but once in power is governed as a plutocrat so hes not there at populists is a clued up populist essentially a plutocrat thats pretended to be a populous if you look at the economic policies they have been all against the economic interests of is a blue collar. Is that thought that for in his policies on taxation reducing corporate taxes and taxes for the wealthy is policies of trying to repeal obamacare is policies of loosening up a regulation that a friend labor in unions its all this is about the environment everything yes done its been against the working class and the income and jobs of the working class and yes pretend that if we have a leader of the 5 on 3 that weve china or if were to stick migration were going to resolve the American Economy that we create that but to resolve that we need inclusive growth we need progress in taxation we need to invest into infrastructure roads ports bridges that a crime like we have to invest in to art the future were to do things that provide their workers with this heres a new the occasion theyre going to be able to. Survive and thrive in this globalized impeach the world yes done nothing of that hes been talking about the infrastructure plan not a penny has been spent so is it true the populous is really plutocrats are wearing the ships lot of a populist but is not the populist well hes been blasting china as you pointed out hes been blasting. Away and saying we cant have their 5 g. M. Betted into American Communications infrastructure or into cities and theyve got to be other choices but there are no other options that we make these we dont make these systems in the United States europe makes them but id be interested in in where we go with that when you look at these this next wave of sr to certain degree opportunity you know the internet of things vast move me a beta that america has no players in it while its shutting down one of the key providers its embedded in that business know youre right you know we need to be out there at 5 jim at work about theres either the chinese one there while we wait and we were about the back door to the Chinese Government but there is only a nakia medics on that are europe. And by the way the chinese money is 30 percent cheaper and 20 percent more efficient so ought to be in that 5 g. Network without weiwei having it active right between us and china is going to cost us 50 percent more and where we have lost the technology will be that we had of course where many private sector Tech Companies are doing well whether think that that whether its going to be president for the next they can we have to think about that in industrial policy for the United States you know germany as industrial policy 4. 0 for our world is going to be based on robotics out of may shown by Machine Learning big date internet of thing so this that revolution is darker regardless of but which provide people with this has to be able to be successful when we dont have works of that the right types of skills and therefore that you marginalize jobs like umberger for the pink or low low Wage Services so you have to invest into your people you have to invest into your physical infrastructure you have to message your Digital Infrastructure we have a plan we need a plan to make sure that people in sex see it otherwise our work is going to be left behind even more than the past i would advise my viewers to go look at your twitter stream i do it most every day and you get snapshots of other subterranean things that could comment and dislodgement you know most recently wrote you referenced antartica and so its not just an economic fragility that youre dealing with were looking at environmental fragility even social fragility and youre predicting that were going to have a very very hard decade that were going to enter in a period which is you know catastrophic only worse in some ways than the Great Depression tell us what you see coming when i do or in that where the very severe recession that maybe for a quarter since we start from a very low base is going to look like a rocket or corelli something like. Well by next year is going to be like a you because there is bourbon up private and public that its not affecting Economic Uncertainty the risk of urge on and people not wanting to spend very much are we going to have a 1st wave and that 2nd wave and so on and then a for the v. Is going to become a you and the euro can eventually become a dhaba do a double dip recession especially when its the bear. Second wave and that bear dogmatic and up and down as integrate that the pressure on and ive discussed in some of my recent writing that our time that the drivers of these are option one and all potentially at the pressure we have are what i call of time that media is one is that type and that to say that events are going to lead to the fall of the 2nd one is demographic and aging theres an increasing lot of employees like the government including those from having to take care of the kovac than others and that makes then we have the basement of currencies that we monetize large discover that since its to avoid that this ration initially they play some of that im sure that is going to be speculation the job of these are optional going to rob economy these rob jobs and income and entire industries coming from knology rebbie is that the market democracy backlash as we have heard the terms of populist empower and in what are you and the policies we have brought up or so the just out war started the wars of the future are going to be based on the cyber warfare and not on commands in a war and then we have that these that deadly manmade disasters and i call them mind may deny that the Natural Disaster because there is nothing natural about Global Climate change that i think nothing not even about the pandemic and this pandemic going to become a motivator in the future in the last 30 years ratbag for save i v then we had best sars then red mare swine flu at all not the god now called me and where this drawing because of. About Climate Change the abby thought about manning on mars and then on another encroaching on are that animals and then theyre getting closer to human beings than the these on a transfer of the visas from the animals to humans this is not natural obviously is a game having to do with the big rocks on our Natural Environment so the combination of all these that may force that may imply that the less we change radically our policies we could end up into a not just a great governments i sure like the one where maybe the area greater than the Global Financial crisis but we have that risk of a great deal of depression a depression worse than their one weapon the one thing there are these. Well i think one of the questions i have because you know i remember the 1990 s. I remember working in the senate and we had the benefits of a fast growing i. T. Economy but when you saw our people losing benefits you saw people being asked to live in a turbo charged economy without turbo charged protections and so this is been going on for quite a while and so i guess the unfair question is as youre going very quickly over the cliff what can stop going over the cliff when so many forces have come together to do that but im going to ask you that if you were to be in charge and begin looking at how you undo some of the trends that are taking us into this terrible place what are some of those things weak we could seriously consider well i didnt the 1st things i said that we have to invest in still human copy where there is globalization or technology that bit is rupture on the entire jobs skills in this that isnt firms so you have to provide the skills to people so they can be able to deal with globalization and we have these technological is an option everybody should be starting somebody and of Stem Science Technology engineering computing coding and you name it it was just the teaching according to kids or as soon as we did it teach them english or whatever language that learning is the language of the future we had crumbling infrastructure is in the United States and rebuilding this infrastructure is going to be important to grease the private sector productivity we know that Global Climate change is going to beat the massive cost and losses and actually many of the technology that can change Global Climate change came beat and then labor intensive if we have that soil our finals on every building every home around that are those are kind of labor intensive jobs like many other types of green jobs by them it just that made the commitment to spend 2 trillion dollars on infrastructure and on the Green Economy so up where they may. Same to our people in our human copy thought into the physical infrastructure into the Green Infrastructure into the Digital Infrastructure and also in our institutional infrastructure because the social copy in the United States is fraying as we have a source of the vision that i being from rising income and wealth inequality by so many people being left behind becoming angry ill get make that frustrate that i mean environment in may in some cases so unless were to be in our own social fabric will be even more divided so there is a huge amount of investment i have to do to avoid that depression but with our current with on with that i mean you and i have both d been around for a long time im sad to say but weve been around weve seen a lot weve seen protests and i guess and you know history and i guess one of the questions when i read your material i say well you know inequality has been building for a while weve seen revolutions in the past weve seen plutocrats and and you know all of our key stablish in the past what do you think is making this particular time different than these other moments where weve had protests but not change. Well they make is to different days that i think that day amount of income and live in a quality as fresh and United States that reached a level that are really politically and socially unsustainable and both on the rye that people who are maybe socially and rigidly conservatives are left behind where back the High School Degree that youre still a lot for tramping till they thought they were going through bodies but that being to the point that and of course even on the left side the people that voted for banning found that of what i mean about what i am for or see on Democratic Party are looking for change so i think that progressive policies are necessary because the number of people that are left behind there are losers where feeling frustrated doggin 8 that when they warn about their own income a lot of their own jobs about their own child but about the future is driving the share of profit the rising the share of labor income is falling economic and social uncertainties are increasing that is not going to be Economic Opportunity and social mobility in the United States those web scales and that copy dogs are doing while everybody else is being left behind and its not just the United States for the last year where they must pray sean and process and ryo all over latin america in the middle east in parts of asia up in abundance economies like in france anybody in their emerging markets so i think that that we have growth but the a phenomenon which that is my sense is an option coming from both technology from free from globalization and there are some winners and losers and now they lose the becoming a majority and that you know the voting for populous part of this or that the grasping for the showing are not a sprint product is and they want change and they want a world in which capital is not the one who is winning by labor and i hope and im actually doing that angela social im rising thats even wars go bad but evolution. Thats what happened in the past so we have to do something to avoid social and political instability no real i want to ask you to be a futurist about your future isnt to look past the 20 twenties and really gloomy prognosis that youve given this time to the 2030 s. Is there someone out there some nation that impresses you thats beginning to get these shows social cohesion questions right to merge in technology the trends that you think will emerge out of that gloom and come in stronger and im really asking will the u. S. Have had its suez moment will another nation or region demonstrate a very different model than were. Seeing today where there are some current is that doing the right things i think that some of the nordic countries this company even ones are adopting the right the early new technologies like in sweden caches these appear Payment System are all the chips are now theres an option of all these technologies but they have also a very very wide social welfare system so that if youre losing your job you have a good Education Skills or retraining your pension and youre proud care youre Free Education and therefore if just by bad luck youre falling down you dont have a chance to rebound so some of the nordic country are doing the right thing some countries in emerging asia also have policies like singapore or not theres theyre not investing in the future of their people while adopting Technology Time as they climbing population but these investing a lot in robotics and automation and the decline in population is going to compensate that by using more machines so you have to be creative but provide people to do the skill of the lot of them to be able to use technology as opposed to having it great that are the divide between the assets and thats not so that there are more that you can work on while Nouriel Roubini thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today on the bottom line and i look forward to seeing where all this goes hopefully. Better than you predict but you know i buy your prognosis and i want to encourage people to check out main street manifesto it was real eyeopener for me thank you so much pleasure being with you today its the so whats the bottom line. There were already bad trends piling up against folks trying to hold their lives together before the global d pandemic hit and destabilize them even more some things are never going to change the middle class theyre always going to be squeezed the rich theyll get richer and the poor even when they do everything theyre supposed to do to get ahead they just cant catch a break inequality is going to remain with us nationalism is going to keep rising our quality of life is going to fall as isolationism takes over and over yeah antarctica is melting my guest is right that it would take a massive systemic correction to turn around the ship and the chances of that happening right now are highly unlikely were going to have rough waters buckle up and thats sadly the bottom line. The coronavirus manifolds us to change the full lot of head to head for the time being about one stop me doing robust interviews with challenging direct questions in a u. S. Election year ill be seeking accountability from both sides of the political spectrum on whos to blame for the horrific coronavirus death toll on how to fix the Us Health Care system and whether the war of words with china is entering a new and dangerous phase join me may the awesome 1st special series of head to head on aljazeera. Told a number told stories from asia in the pacific on aljazeera. As protests rage over Police Brutality and corona virus grips the nation campaigning on the election trail has been forced to take a back seat will the president ial candidates ever hit the road and sell their brand of politics to americans before the vote follow the u. S. Elections on a jersey are. Watching the whole robin here on aljazeera in doha with our top news stories egypt says its seeking clarification from ethiopia or whether it started to fill the reservoir of africas largest dam on the blue nile Ethiopian State Television reported on wednesday that the filling of the ground renee sounds damn had begun egypt and sudan had requested it not to be filled until agreement is reached well said on sons to gain from the project which will reduce flooding and provide access to cheap electricity but its feared those benefits could be outweighed by the negative impact of the morgan reports not from sudans like new bia