To take a back seat will the president ial candidates ever hit the road and so their brand of politics to americans before the vote follow the u. S. Election on a. Could the u. S. Shut down the open skies President Donald Trump wants to pull out of the treaty that helps to kill peace after the cold war so whats behind the move and has the military pact become outdated in todays world this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program on iran come on its known as one of the pillars of Global Security after the end of the cold war the open skies treaty allows the u. S. Russia canada and European Countries to fly over each others territories and monitor military activity but earlier this year President Donald Trump announced washington wants to withdraw from the pact. Signatories are debating what to do next u. S. Official says russia is violating the agreement by blocking flights like the military facilities and using planes to map out american infrastructure for possible attack the kremlin rejects the allegations the Worlds Largest military Alliance Nato is urging russia to comply with the agreement russia for many years imposed flight restrictions inconsistent with the treaty including flight imitations over colleen in gold under strict in flights in russia near its border with georgia rochelles ongoing selective implementation has undermined the open skies treaty. Over many years including at successive natal summits our lives have called on russia to return to full compliance. So what is the open skies treaty in 1955 u. S. President Dwight Eisenhower suggested washington analysts soviet union allow surveillance flights over each others territories moscow rejected it at the time decades later in 1989 president george w. Bush expanded the concept to include nato members and other European Countries the pact allows on armed monitoring flights to collect data on military activities it was signed in 1902 but only went into effect 10 years later 34 countries have ratified the agreement. I. Lets bring in our guests in washington d. C. Mark fitzpatrick a senior u. S. Diplomat and associate fellow at the International Institute for strategic studies in brussels a christine brazillian a policy analyst on the e. U. s either relations nato and transatlantic Security Cooperation and in moscow the silly question from the Russian InternationalAffairs Council a warm welcome to you all i want to begin in washington d. C. With you Mark Fitzpatrick theres really 2 things going on here one it seems to be the alleged russian violations of this treaty but certainly for the u. S. The biggest thing seems to be part of Donald Trumps plan to pull out those Many International agreements as possible the most famous ones include the Iran Nuclear Deal now after which he renegotiated so is this just yet another treaty he just doesnt want to be part of because he feels the u. S. Needs to go it alone. Yes thats basically it the russian violations are clear but theyre not that big of a deal theyve been dealt with the United States took reciprocal action so thats not the precipitating factor in this is just part of an overall agenda to. Withdraw the United States from agreements that are seen to bind u. S. Hands its its you can might call it the ghost of john bolton who disliked all arms control agreements and one by one he and his acolytes who remain in the administration have been cutting the United States off from them the city question in moscow the u. S. Is alleging russian violations they are guests in d. C. Says they have been dealt with yet theyll still that were the ones boscos view on the pull out of this treaty whats what do they think from russian perspective and according to what our minister for out there says the russian government sees. The that the real reason all of us pulling out is just that change of your policy towards the arms control agreements in general certain conclusion to each merican government came that they didnt need any arms control. Agreements any more. Violations which are alleged like limitations solve these inspection flights over. Or limitations for the flights near the conflict zone sun such as up. In. Cannot be considered as something major. Steel they could be negotiated in some way however if their american side decided to pull out of their agreement there is no way to stop them and. Probably. Probably we should be just prepared for dismantlement of they say green mint in future Mark Fitzpatrick in d. C. I think the agreement was seen as being slightly out of date given that we now have you know Satellite Technology this kind of monitoring all the military installations isnt really that necessary is that a valid argument do you think that the us its a valid argument certainly satellite imagery it supersedes actually what can be taken from aircraft but aircraft have a 3 advantages number one theyre flexible they dont go on predetermined flight paths they can change to they can go underneath the clouds when theres heavy cloud cover or satellite imagery doesnt work so long 3 and this is the most important really they provide a visible political demonstration of u. S. Commitment to arms can go to transparency and then the sharing of the data that is provided for in the open skies agreement is another politically important. Manifestation of the cooperation christine in brussels what is brussels his view what is the the european view on the pullout of the treaty is it that perhaps that he does need changing or is this come as quite a shock to the treaty really matters for europe of course it matters to have oversight over what happens in russia and in the United States for the bilateral relations between these 2 major powers at the same time the security concerns that the that the treaty was set up to address really our security concerns in europe if you look at everything from outer space and the ukraine conflict and Russian Military activities on the territory of ukraine you see that they people ringback who are most affected by potential russian troop movements and actions are the europeans and many European Countries many european nato members are signatories of this treaty and so it really is a sense where you have these this. By matter owen some ways conflict between the u. S. And russia play out in an area that is a critical concern for europeans however europeans really do have many of the same reservations. In terms of brushes adherence to the provisions of the treaty and the concerns of particular overcrowding grat are where other areas a so you see europeans being concerned about this because it affects europeans very directly so that is the 1st point really that the need for europeans to have ongoing eyes and visibility about what is going on in russia in order to preserve their own security it is also a part of mutual confidence building so the ability to look into what is happening in russia where the other signatories really allows for there to be on going dialogue and cooperation which is important in spite and maybe even because of the ongoing tensions and then theres a 3rd element here which is challenging for the europeans so the Russian Foreign ministry has expressed concern that if the treaty does go forward what will be the stipulations for europeans in particular european nato ally sharing their intelligence and what they have gained from there are party to this treaty with the United States should 8 as it has plans to do withdraw and so these are the bane concerns here in europe which are you know manifold both is it security in terms of its own relations with russia and its relations with the United States and the question i will get your reaction in just a 2nd but i want to go to Mark Fitzpatrick in washington d. C. Its interesting isnt it there was an agreement it was walking says august in brussels however now because the u. S. Wont be part of the intelligence sharing with the u. S. Phone that europe is going to be an issue how does the u. S. Get around the. So the United States said that they would provide compensatory information to European Partners. You know of by the us data from satellites so as a technical issue its not such a problem the problem is the political issues all of him almost all of americas nato partners want the United States to remain involved and you know it was important over the ukraine crisis in the United States with draw is a slap in the face to its European Partners its another demonstration of u. S. Isolation of us 1st they dont care about european concerns expressed so well by the panelist in brussels the city house in your reaction please i mean heres the deal that the americans have pulled out all but its likely that theyre still going to get the intelligence that they need from the european allies because some sort of deal might be struck what does russia make of will insist on guarantees that europeans do not share. Such an intelligence. With the United States and of course if russia discovers or there are sufficient reasons to suspect that they know belhadj insisting will share it russia will start to limit. The use of the street by the europeans for example if there are reasons to suspect that certain flight bath is really. Being implemented at the request of them macons so this is a big issue which will effectively halt that treaty into permanent danger. Russia is basically interested in men they need that treaty but not at any cost for example. There are alleged russian violations but they. They were also. In a clear. Abuse of some of the treaty provisions from the in the nato part for example flights over kaliningrad which is a very small territory and the flight would last for very long time sometimes cracked and creating certain obstacles for legitimate russian activities in the area and that was used by some need to counter a sometimes and then when russia started to limit such flights that became in this year so there are certain grievances. And certain dissatisfaction from both sides russian position was and it still is that we could negotiate these differences find some way out and stay in the treaty but since there is political decision by the government to pull well it off that treaty i think what were witnessing now is just a political effort to shift the blame for that dismantlement of the treaty on the russians. And of course the russian side understands that perfectly well they wouldnt initiate that dismantlement of the treaty but theyre completely ready for these christine brazil you know in brussels is there a treaty that another new treaty would seemingly is what donald trump is very good at demanding they know his name on the treaty that hes not really interested in is there another treaty between the u. S. And russia and the e. U. That could replace. The big treaty that everyone is looking to right now for future arms control is the negotiation around new start so the existing new start provisions expire pembury in next years after the us president ial election but the questions in that which is also a Nuclear Arms Control treaty are about the participation also of china and so i think the big the big look to educational treaties are so much about open skies that it does have alternatives as i said through through Satellite Technology its politically significant but there are workarounds but the big question that moves forward is the question around a new start and what happens there so far the u. S. Administration has been in the habit of dismantling treaties setting obstacles to a lot of the multilateral formats that have been used far and it is the question is whether they sit ministration will continue to try to set the future of additional arms control treaties and continuations such as the question about what happens when you start or really see a continuation of this more. And more bilateral unilateral kind of Foreign Policy in a divergence away from the multilateral formats that had been really favored and have been very successful since the end of the cold war just for those people who dont know new start as i see the strategic arms reduction treaty a very key plank of Foreign Policy for all of the countries involved are going on that youll very concerned that you stall may well be the next target. Yes neustar is the is actually the last of the arms control treaties that the Trump Administration has yet to dismantle and it will end unless its extended it will end in february. So theres not much time left to redo it and the Trump Administration talks about you know wanting out a grand new treaty with russia and china but its made very little effort to actually put any such treaty in place and the chinese dont want to have anything to do with it so im afraid new start may be the next one to follow the saving grace is that february is in the term of the next u. S. President and the way the polling is looking today that next president wont be donald trump can cant would would but would president would a President Biden be able in the space of one month to extend new stir it will take cooperation with russia i hope that russia extends that cooperation i hope that they keep news open skies agreement valid so that the next u. S. President can return the United States to it and return to other treaties but its interesting isnt it because if he if you start is dismantled lets be clear that this is the way seemingly that the u. S. Administration this Current Administration is going their way back to the eightys and the defects in the u. S. So destruction argument where its a mad ethos to put it bluntly. Has patrick in d. C. You know where is this going why despond will all of these treaties so its not there are several several really bad trends going here its the the absence of treaties its the absence of a dialogue with with with adversaries you know you need to talk to end the series rather than wage war on them and then its the breaking down of the alliance. Network you know trying to pull. Not open skies agreement is another gift to gladden your putin because put him on snuffing more than to see him break down it may tell and by the United States pulling out and then not being able to receive the data that nato partners collect kind of being out of out of sync with them on whether to continue this agreement is another breaking down of the whole structure of the western alliance system. I think it can be restored but its going badly wrong during this administration christine brazil and brussels is nato about to break up the. Now its not about to break up over this particular provision i think that we have seen a trend in wage the u. S. Proceeds rather you know laterally in us Foreign Policy at the same time it tends to bring nato along nato might not be. In the Decision Making process in the consultations seem not to happen as openly and as early with nato allies as weve seen in other administrations and this is a source of frustration its not however a conflict openly between the United States and its allies its simply a. And edition 2 a slow restriction between the alliance but this isnt a fatal blow by any we have seen generally trying times at the same time we do have a very strong u. S. Presence in europe militarily and support and practice for nato and back continues and so weve continually seen this push and pull between support and criticism and gauge mencia and unilateral action and that continues and it is simply what it received at the moment but by no means is this qantas the alliance but if it doesnt sink the airlines christine it will certainly change the airlines the way the airlines things and the power it has to intelligence gathering theres absolutely has intelligence sharing implications but i think as with everything we look at this eppy months before the u. S. Undergoes it you know i think a fundamental president ial election and when you look at the current polling as colleagues said here they say it doesnt it could well be that there is a different president in white house starting in the fall and so i think any kind of decisions that happen in Foreign Policy within the next few months are going to be seen with the fair amount of reservation because many things that in terms of the Us Administration direction can be changed come come a new year and so i think there is a managing productive relationship there are many risks the trends that are receiving the trumpet ministration to dismantle my multilateralism and to test alliances that of course continues but again we are not in a condition where any of this feels unrecoverable. Its interesting the silly question i was talking to an iranian guest on the show when we talk about the joint comprehensive plan of action that the Iran Nuclear Treaty he said to me look everybody is waiting for november thats what were waiting full theres going to be no real changes between now and then is moscows plan like tehrans just a wait and see so. We dont expect any major change on the fronts. After november especially. Concerning the iranian deal because. I think. There are clear limits to any. Alteration since the u. S. Policy now taking into account all of the events which happened before. There are certain milestones for example we are approaching time when we could actually. Restart military Technical Cooperation with iran which will be interesting for a number of counties race and. I think. We should move towards that. Even in that direction in the coming years. Mark fitzpatrick in washington d. C. Went until november is no way to run a countrys Foreign Policy as it. No but. But it really is the prudent policy for americas foreign partners when when United States is making decisions which do not appear to be wise patience might be the best response to that given the likelihood as now appears from the polling that there will be a change in presidency and the positions that former vice President Biden has stated would restore americas. Partnerships. And participation in International Treaties so. You know diplomacy is sometimes been described as as the art of buying time until circumstances change for the better and thats that thats what were in right now we are just running out to tom i do want to ask all 3 of you a very quick questions trying to shorten the life so lets get to all 3 of you we are talking about russia and china being quite key allies is it time for the e. U. To really look to russia and china and to night and for the head to look to russia and china strategic allies lets begin with you mark oh no. I mean the we need partnerships with russia and china we need Communication Channels but strategic allies you know theres theres no commonality of values of interests there are longstanding issues. And theres no way can it be a replacement for the United States christine as you know you hold. I would echo way mark said if you look at this particular European Commission for example its under the underline it calls itself a geo Political Commission but we have see in the past few months is an insistence upon the importance of values and importance of the democratic system for europe and for a further europe as a political bloc that is fundamentally incompatible with russia and china at the moment and where china had more favorable relations with with the e. U. Perhaps prior to the last year we have also seen sharpening of language over and and no declaration of systemic rivalry over the different systems between democracy and authoritarian and antidemocratic. Vassily hashanah is there any chance that the russia and indeed china are going to soften their positions towards nato towards the European Union well i think. The basic reality of our relations with nato and European Union ease debt we are currently we missing a spectacular disorganization and complete unpredictability. Within both are going to a station and of course within the United States which basically affects everyone all eyes then on november i want to thank all our guests Mark Fitzpatrick christina brazilian a person and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out to 0 dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story. And you could also join the conversation on twitter we are a. J. Inside sort from a am wrong card an entire team her life and up. 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