Could egypt and turkey go to war in libya egypts president threatens to send in the army turkish back troops make more gains how does that further complicate libyas civil war this isnt a story. Welcome to the program. The battle lines of libyas civil war are changing quickly a few weeks ago after us forces were on the outskirts of the capital tripoli they fought a 14 month battle to remove the u. N. Recognize government of National Accord well the jna but the warlords campaign failed and hes been in retreat sense jane i troops turn the tide over the past month reinforced by military support from turkey they pushed have to fight is out of tripoli suburbs and several coastal towns in western libya and now theyre heading towards have to his power base in the oil rich south and east the deny forces are closing in on the city of sirte and base both fields that have to shut down earlier this year cutting off billions of dollars of income after all foreign backers russia the United Arab Emirates and egypt a watching closely. Egypts president abdul fatah i. C. C. Proposed a ceasefire earlier this month but turkish leaders dismissed it as an attempt to save half the awful on his battlefield losses since he says the Egyptian Army is ready to cross the border and intervene if g. N. A. T. Fighters attack sirte. Dr didnt if some people think if they can cross a line in places that matter to us in the search all true for thats a red line any direct intervention from egypt has now acquired the International Legitimacy whether within the framework of the United Nations charter or based on the sole legitimate authority elected by the libyan people the objective will be to protect and secure egypts western borders from threats of terrorist militias and mercenaries the government of National Accord has rejected egypts threats egypts foreign minister says his country backs a political solution to the conflict while the train has more from misrata. Libyas internationally recognized government thats the g. N. A. S. Denounced will cease his remarks on saturday saying that this constitutes a threat to their National Sovereignty and that is a threat to their sick their National Security now i spoke to june a commanders here on the ground and they say that they are adamant about entering sirte they say that they want to liberate all of libya from have to control they also say that their agreement with turkey its a legitimate one the g. N. A. T. In turkey signed a military and maritime agreement in november this has helped the d. N. A. In capturing western western libya retaking western libya from have to forces and they want to continue on now to sirte and they say after that towards the eastern oil port what we are seeing is a real effort from the t. N. A. To continue on base say that they will not accept a cease fire until after forces really retreat from 30 and from joe for and they what they want they will not negotiate with have to. Lets bring in a guest from london jim a special envoy of live in prime minister. To algeria mauritania america and tunisia from washington d. C. Now bill mikhail Political Writer and a professor of Political Science and here in doha abraham fry how its conflict resolution professor at the Doha Institute for graduate studies a warm welcome to you all id like to begin in london with. 24 hours weve had. Threatened military action in libya and now the foreign minister suggest that there is a political solution to this but were also whilst this is all going on we also seemingly seem to be understanding egypts and egypts position a bit more and that they seem to be drawing a red line within libya and saying that search should not be attacked whats behind this egyptian move more does it mean for libya. Well 1st of all i think the city statement yesterday is equates to a blatant and to funerals in another country and for him to say that there is a red line in the middle of libya a 1000 kilometer away from the egyptian border that the g. N. D. Of forces should not cross is almost equates to a declaration of war against another country this is totally totally unacceptable for him also to say that hes going to train and arm tribal militias that will be libyan or egyptian tribal militias or perhaps egyptian tribal militias from libyan origin that to be the spearhead of any Egyptian Force that will go into libya is it waits to actually as one string militias and training and equip and arming militias which totally contradicts the negative and the idea which he has been. Selling over the years that have to our heads a professional army and that they are supporting a professional army and libya and in as an other work is it from here is advocating just another militia to be added to have to as many militias local and and to national so all of that and also forces you to say that he only recognizes the eto are the parliament and top broke content extol italy with the current agreement in 2015 which egypt was witness to and which the reserve supported and has cut out the libyan political agreement advocated that there are 3 legitimate Political Institutions in libya acho are 7 is one of them theres also the state Supreme Council in tripoli and that is the g. N. A. T. Which is the executive government or the the president ial council which leads the country so in a way sisi is saying that he only recognizes one of them and he does not recognize the genny in tripoli does not recognize the other state council and the british which contradicts your aunt. Lucians and contradicts what all the International Community and agreed to so what why is he white white why is he doing this i think botley says he is just saber rattling hes trying to appear to be tough and strong and libya to actually for but possibly for local opinion consumption because we know that have to has sort of says he has been a bit and to be very weak reserve another crucial problem for egypt which is towards the south which is with a cure and the fact that europeans building a huge dam called the not the dam which is going to affect the levels of not of water that flows through the night to egypt and it is going to have grave consequences for the libyan for egyptian economy and possibly for the future of egypt altogether to see how jim and lets lets bring in somebody action from washington d. C. We havent availed methyl with us as well neville youve heard what jim had to say he says that this is against libya serenity its actually contradictory and perhaps even an act of war what do you think. Ok thanks for the kind invitation greetings to you and to your distinguished guests and to the under below defense ok let us not remove the long term from the picture its a very important situation but you have to be considerate of many people it becomes fact we are in the middle of a very tough economic crisis as a result of the coronavirus millions of unemployed in america the mediterranean countries surrounding italy spain greece and france have lost also a great deal as a result of the virus. There is a 4 month period before the election and donald trump wants to get reelected all these factors Work Together not in harmony all the time to make america on reserve reluctant to endorse any strategic move based on the Geopolitical Realities of any situation including so i think president will try to freeze the status quo in lipa not to support one part over the other but because he does not want an egyptian interference in libya because that could be a war and 2nd also he does not want to complicate the situation was turkey so in not chill if prison camp here is whats going on now from the different sides around libya he would say no no military intervention by any side in the conflict whether his troops are deployed inside libya or whether he has a logistics to move troops inside thats it lets bring in abraham who joins us from everyone this is the 2 things going on right now firstly this is a deliberate gamble by sisi to try and force the International Communitys hand to make a stand on libya but we have a guest in d. C. Suggesting that its too close to an election and donald trump simply doesnt want to get involved but on the other hand we are hearing that this is perhaps a language all of diplomacy you know with this saber and there is some saber rattling going on what is behind do you think this move right now from egypt and why is it coming now. Thank you im ron major reason in my view a fault of this statement that been of out of my c. C. As i had to support one of the companies shoot them that he stomped and see weeks ago actually when and if i have thought and i kill osama bin and keitel and calling for a cease fire so it was a political statement now i think what sisi is trying to do look as try tool add some strength. You know to the suspense. Supported by a military Statement Like this of the sitting bull the minute that the friendship and without a cease it is able to intervene militarily in libya a month it depends what kind of interventions are we talking about if were talking about diet a minute that intervention. I think this is dorothy under hes unable to expect that the moment egypt. Has many see the us National Security challenges its facing at the moment including going top of them. Bill think of. Going to innocence. Which fifteens that Water Supplies to egypt and thats when also ceases fighting a war with that months they act in sinai for many years and has not been able to induct war against isis either. And that is and ive also said the c. C. Is facing many c. D. s economic challenges and also given that corner by those challenges like what your guest from washington said so to expect that it will double this there will be a commitment in the vision i do not think so now what is likely however to be possible in that he had a future as the support but he shoots and particular cliburn beauty she has which is by the way this is something that has been happening for many its im not sure why this is now what is normal about his. Probably the only addition to this is that hes trying now to make to make it public and themselves supporting. Many shows by bill many shows in particular and not only this but also to try to get some international sympathy and also more support from his own lights from saudi arabia and the u. A. E. Which he needs you know what if this thing gets them that hes trying to make is that always to get the support from his allies so and with that the mind i think its this is could be that hes a why he added this is the big this all to the public and being able to support this but he says without. Doing this and that they have been also against as simply good message i think theyre going to key at this moment because its becoming particularly manifests at the moment with the. With. Actually events on because that thats a large has made with the support of turkey so all of this i think could put this into perspective why he is making these statements about lets bring in jim a lot here in london jim i have heard what i thought guess of how to say but there seems to be a very interesting political dynamic when it comes to libya itself one Khalifa Haftar always strong he didnt seem to want to negotiate with the International Community now we have the jna in a stronger position they dont seem to want to negotiate with the International Community there seems to be this disconnect between when one side is powerful that they just seem to want to get more power and not negotiate is there any way that all of the sides can come to a negotiation or a simply because this is such a proxy war with Huge International back as thats very difficult. Absolutely true and its the reality that for the last 6 years the conflict in libya has been a brooks he war with many countries getting involved and meddling and libya and trying to impose their own vision and its worth remembering that egypt over the last 6 years has invested heavily in half the military support training intelligence media Political Support they invested everything in half the india hope that half that will succeed in taken over power in libya and emulate does he see a model where the army as an institution will be in control of all aspects of state institutions and state and political life but this model this disinvestment is now failing fast and failing that obviously because the dynamics on the ground in libya has shifted and has changed dramatically over the last 6 months and you notice that over the last 6 years decade players in libya where egypt in my route is the saudis the french the russians im possibly one or other small countries on the side of the journey but now over the last 6 months suddenly many of these countries i mentioned have been sidelines and now that key players shaping things and influencing things on the ground in libya are turkey number one and russia number 2 and russia has succeeded cleverly and using this vital of mercenaries which it has used in many other countries in africa and a crane and syria as well and dictate things and use that as a leverage so no sissy realize that all of a sudden the ones who are dictating any political outcome or a resolution will be turkey and russia so sisi does not want to lose all that investment he made in have to he can see that have to ship is sinking fast but he wants to salvage whatever he can politically for egypt so what is trying to. Who is to tag onto that as your position and libya in other words its not is a thats really leveraging and influencing things now and libya does that yes but i think sisi cleverly is trying to do that going to russia so that when russia. Achieves an outcome or an understanding with turkey that will lead to a permanent political solution and a settlement and stability in libya then egypt will claim that they have been influential as well and that enters should not be ignored that is that is really that he at the end this this egypt versus turkey is very important and very significant and libya today and i dont think egypt is a match to the strength and might of steadicam militarily economically or politically thats why we do not believe that lets get some reaction now from the nobel methyl in washington d. C. He is an interesting question our guest in london has brought up what sisi is trying to do is bring in the gyptian style of government into libya one that is military civilian in nature do you think thats what sisi wants for libya. This could be one possibility i mean the situation in libya is such a chaos so he can just become weight as much as you like but also you have to list your Strategic Priorities there is haftar and there is a debate is after all of our has he ended his political career and military ambitions terminated i would say not hes still a valid and Program Player in the difficult political calculus in libya so these options more actually tend to support have to describe the fact that it has the appearance to discourage him not after a player is still in the game this 2nd is. Shrewd movement also give more legitimacy talking about saddam i have said this before oculus how to operate is actually the most feasible. Solution to the libya crisis which is what you advocated to make leiby of his aeration meaning there is one single a state but provinces and governance is and regions enjoys a degree of self autonomy so the ships can move also lend a degree of support to oculus artist and try to not turn him as a potential leader of libya if the situation is too much polarized between feisal said i on the one hand and heavy for have thought on the other hand and its a long topic but i have to be brief i agree with the guest when the mentioned the syria for the russian factor this is a very critical point and again that needs inject the standpoint of the Tramp Administration this what President Trump favors and the next in the next 4 months before the elections he wants to cooperate as much as he can with blood in their court and why because he wants to give the impression to the American Voter that he has the trust of a Big Nuclear Power that is shrewd in geopolitical game to render a degree was to go to the 2 situations in the b. R. Iraq with the palestinian in ukraine and not the least to libya so i believe that President Trump will gradually be alliant on the input of russia the big question is which is the big puzzle and that can be the topic of a new program what kinds of actions will put undue in leave because that has been mystifying to everyone to egypt to turkey and even to the United States ever him for help and there is a proxy war going on in libya a guest in washington d. C. Has suggested that there are several players as our guest and london but i mean it is a proxy war but it is a proxy war to fall that doesnt seem to be any Common Ground between any of the major players. Yes definitely i believe that is a proxy where the war taking place and leave since probably 2014 met just a cliff i think thats when we started to see 2 different that extends you know Political Developments and lead the way of thinking one thats supported by whats called the Council Resolution forces in the region like egypt saudi arabia. Minutes and the other on the other side is that where the revolution others are trying to assemble power want to be involved in the place so this proxy world war is still going on and just before the turkish intervention we saw back to the hollyhock camp supported by egypt. Reaching the capital tripoli was about to begin and then now we see the other side is being supported by 30 and changing things on the ground as well so im not sure actually the point is themselves in libya able to make these decisions without the involvement of the regional players this has lead to has become a back to the ground and sees the one additional motive why he is the committing a possible intervention is that he wanted it to get to see a model in libya and to restore the. Accountable lucian approach the old system in libya and eliminating what he calls the militias the risk the globe said and leave now let me slightly disagree with you or. Just from washington not too much but slightly which is on the american position. About this i agree that trump is not about to make Strategic Investments in the last 4 or 5 months before the. Elections and also took is an ally and egypt is an ally as well but it seems however out of that dont you has been able to secure some. Some support from the United States from that dump and this and this conflict one could be see it actually from is that who do you deal with the russian intervention or simply english and warped in mens door leave yeah it was African American forces based in africa and decree utterly revealed that about 4 weeks ago that you know in acim a sign of challenging but i should have been shamed in media in addition also dont is anything and if you remember and then ignore me think that was just last week and since a bit we have a message against russia russians and im going to let me be and fair to even mention and this because again the United States is a major player in the need along with the kid did not mention the kids in the original whatsoever so everything was directed against russia at the moment i do not think at the moment that russia and the United States are on the same pigeon b. B. s but again we still need to see more of you know about to talk about this lets bring in jim we are running out of time but very quickly i do want to ask you this question they are when it comes to this proxy war in libya theres a lot of other factors like we say we talked about the u. S. Election coming up whether donald trump the bring us president wants to get involved in libya we have the russians we have the saudis etc etc etc where does this need to get to so that the libyan all of the libyans themselves can actually bring about a peaceful resolution to this do do we need a nother peace summit to happen quickly or would go away so far away from that that thats not an issue. No no we are ready to have a Peace Process to remember last year when have to attack tripoli on the 4th of april 2019 we were only 10 days away from a mind stone a crucial peace conference in the city of god dam was on the west of libya where all the sites were going to come together and strike a political agreement that will lead to the stability of libya and more and progressing further the political process and the transition but who would all be doing that it was after because have to does not believe in any political process or. If you like. An understanding between the different Political Parties to share power and to come together under a constitution and elections and so on have got believes in winner takes all you wanted to take everything and establish a military rule emulating the sisi model we are out of time thank you very much. Nobel mikheil and it abraham for and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can also join the conversation on twitter we are at a j inside story from iraq on and the whole team here in doha i found out. From fossil fuels to modern day renewable as societies develop the energy demands increase requiring Innovative Solutions to meet such to moms as a global power develop into the Basement Company nebraska power is uniquely positioned to deliver against least among us we provide Business Growth promote social economic benefits and provide innovative safe and fire mentally sound Energy Solutions for future generations the breast pioneering future energy. I care about the u. S. Engages with the rest of the world i cover Foreign PolicyNational Security this is a political impasse heres the conflict are we telling a good story. Really interested in taking you into a place that you might not visit otherwise and to actually feel as if you were there to go to sarah. Let me also you know how worried you are about the increase in hostilities in yemen we listen this is the moment to stop all the 30 action this is the moment to go since right on fighting we meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that on the edges there are. This is aljazeera. Had amazons the attack and this is the news hour live from die off. Up in the next 60 minutes the mixed messages from egypt on the battle for libya presidencies he warned of minute tree intervention now his foreign minister says he backs a political solution. The u. S. President s 1st Campaign Rally since the growing a virus crisis brings empty seats and more insults aimed at china and even an