Change economic recession and geopolitical tensions not to mention the small matter of a looming election join me Steve Clemons in conversation with leading voices on the bottom line your weekly take on u. S. Politics and society on aljazeera. Hey theyre welcome to the stream i am josh rushing sitting in perfectly ok from the comfort of my own home today because a coven a team. Were talking about can trump get reelected were going to look at the poll numbers were joined by an excited panel of guests and what im really hoping youre going to do if youre watching this on you tube live is youre going to join us in that chat box over there and hopefully get some of your comments in during the show in real time. When the 1st things i want to do is go to a poll here this is from 538 which does a lot of polling combining the polling so this called help popular is donald trump and if you can see on the screen ok youre looking so this is his disapproval ratings at this moment which is Something Like this 1245th day in office 55. 3 percent disapprove 40. 6 a for so about a 15 point difference between disapproval an approval if you curious how that compares to other president s after 1245. 00 days we scroll down and it shows us and so obama on this day he was up about 15 points higher than that and net difference. Bush was bush had a little higher than obama. In about a 15 point difference over where trump is now and if you actually go through all these president s or only 2 president s in modern history the comparative trumps numbers at this. Moment one is im showing you right now george h. W. Bush had a disapproval rating of a net difference of minus 20 points the others to go through Reagan Reagan had a positive and then jimmy carter had a net difference of minus 22. 00 points everyone else is well above trump in modern history trumps that and that difference right now is about 15 points so he is in a tear with jimmy carter and george h. W. Bush course the 2 things that those president share in common when it comes to modern history are the only 2 incumbents to not get reelected so he does have an uphill climb according to the polls but the polls didnt give him a whole lot of a chance of last time either and he still won so were going to talk about that today id like to bring in this exciting panel of guests and have a minute or so themselves were going to begin with what you tell us a bit about yourself why youre here today. Good morning and thank you for having me my name is Leah Daughtry and i am a were doing elder. Tradition on author and i am chief of staff of the Democratic Party and former 2 time c. E. O. Of Democratic National conventions actually i think yulia hey jack thanks for joining us jack joined us at the last minute some give a shout out there checking tell us why and why youre part of the panel today. Well just i certainly appreciate it i am a surrogate for trump 2020 i was also 26 thing and before there was a member of the United States congress from georgia for 20 years and actually had the honor but also serve in our state legislature so at one time i had an honest job i was an Insurance Broker but even that job people were probably question but im very happy to be on the panel with. Yeah thanks for joining us jack i appreciate it and then last up is a familiar face for fans of al jazeera is alan fischer joining us from the white house today alan how you dont im doing very well i of course covered the campaign 4 years ago and although kimberly is our White House Correspondent i often fill in for her which is exactly what im doing just now and im going to point out that were doing this on my laptop because of the serious distractions that we have not our usual camera set up at the white house the camera man is insistent that i point out that this is all me and nothing to do with them. Disclaimers except that well look since you covered from 4 years ago hows it feel now looking at his campaign to where he was this time 4 years ago and theres a couple of things to point out one that youre absolutely right about the polls i remember being at his 2nd last event which is in New Hampshire the night before the election and the polls came out and every single poll even breitbart which is always given him a lead said that donald trump was going to lose the election they had them done by one point and the campaign thought he wasnt going to when they thought even to the middle of election day itself and he won so im not entirely sure that we should always believe the polls but the 2nd thing is that i went to number 2 on the bench obviously 4 years ago ive been to several and the intervening period i was a one at iowa which is one of his most recent events just before the iowa caucuses. In when was that january i think. The. Different says that 4 years ago people were coming along to see the shore they wanted to see donald trump they want to be there when he said something no ray just so if it was on the news they would go we were there we had them say that i know the people that are going to donald trump events are donald trump science they are committed they believe that he is one or the greatest president if not the greatest president america has ever seen so they are very much in the donald trump camp thats the difference between this time around and 4 years ago. Solely from a democratic perspective alan say and it seems like the base has energized and even kind of slid a fired from from the last time how are the democrats going to approach the. Well you know polls are a snapshot in time i think and they either make you feel really good or they motivate you to work harder from our perspective this is really not that new each side each now many on either side of the party has their base of diehards can do no wrong true believers as i call them and then its the folks in the middle that you better try to persuade to your side so you know what joe biden has to do is continue to make the case for why he would be a better president and the kind of leadership that he proposes to or offer to the country and draw the contrast between himself and. His campaign has got to be more and more than about donald trump is bad but its got to demonstrate why joe biden is good and to do that to do the convincing work that needs to happen in the middle east as the people who are you know equally diehard for job i and thats a thats a tough road a hole in this environment with you know whats a pandemic happening with. Black lives matter uprising is happening that people are not choosing their sides and figuring out where they are in the middle of all this on both candidates have a quite a bit of work to do to convince people that they are able to lead America Forward in this moment. Johnson reporting i agree its good. I certainly agree with i think its very very dicey you cant trust the polls but i will say this you know the story about the army that was surrounded by the enemy on all sides in the general called the soldiers in the senate hey listen were in a great position for the 1st time in the history of this war no matter what direction we can go we go we are going to encounter the enemy and so i think the poll i suppose we on the republican side absolutely have our work cut out for us but at the same time its going to boil down. To michigan wisconsin pennsylvania North Carolina the proverbial swing states and even in those states its going to. Depend on particular swing counties and i know in 2016 allen probably remembers there was the door in sight hole i think is too inside the l. A. Times and lee is probably familiar with the remington poll which only polls swedens states and they they actually dont just do the swing state they do the county and precinct in that county and those polls tend to be the more accurate ones because you know no surprise people in texas like donald trump no surprise people in new york and california dont like him. So a lot of times they are heavily weight National Polls and it almost doesnt matter so but at the same town we do need to get out there and we need to be talking about things i agree with donald trump cant the only against joe biden both candidates will try to paint the other one into find the other one but the truth of the matter is i think particularly right now americans are looking for solutions. So the general you mentioned was general Chesty Puller he was in the chosen reservoir at that time and outcome of it was a full on retreat which he successfully led but he did not in of winning that but it was a lot of. Pain and you michigan michigan as a swing state and that its going to matter we have a video comment from someone in our community is actually working on the campaign in michigan that id like to go to that now if we can. Violence against black people continues to happen even after more than 2 weeks of protests in response to the death of george floyd its clear young people are angry and theyre unsure of how to direct that anger or funnel their frustrations in an impactful way next to michigan plans to drop almost 10000 Voter Registration forms in michigan on june 22nd then will spend the next 6 weeks following up with those people to make sure the forms are returned so that people can vote for the 1st time or update their Voter Registration address will also talk about staying safe by voting early and voting from home were doing this in part because voting is one of the most powerful tools of protest idea people have available to them right now and this is a way that we can win back our power. You know its you show mentions there about the violence against black people in that what the protests in the streets we talk about the way the black Life Matters Movement is going to play into this election. Yeah sure you know actually the 1st protest rally i ever attended was when i was 10 years old and it was to protest the Police Killing of 10 year old clifford all over in Brooklyn New York where im from so these are not new issues i think what its different now is that we have social media which makes the world much smaller and allows us to see these things in real time and the overlay of course is the pandemic where everyone is at home and has or least most people are sheltering in place and who have the time and the energy and the bandwidth to keep up with everything thats happening on the news and so this this disjoint this ricocheted around the world really as people are coalescing around trying to fix these in democratic ones that we have in america i think its a factor for us in the election as folks are into the ways in which they can affect change in their communities whatever city they live in figuring out the ways that they can have something to say whether you are with the black class more at a moment or not new want to have your opinion heard and you want to participate in whats happening right now so i think what weve what weve already seen in these last few comments is record turnout record numbers of people filling out absentee ballots and wanting to participate in the process and i think that bodes well for november and it gives both candidates obviously a real chance to make their case to a new set of voters of people who dont normally vote who arent in the news or every 4 year voters so theyve got a an audience of folks theyve got to. Focus on but how to do that in an absentee ballot environment in going to be the challenge for both. You know alan were time of record turnouts but i wonder if this could be affected by 2 things im showing on my computer here if we can put it up a New York Times story i think today the says both candidates are widely disliked again. This time biden could benefit so will the turnout be affected by the disapproval rating of both candidates and lets layer on top of that the core team whats happening with cove in 1000 and where that will be in november well if you just want to talk about black voters and i appreciate look you let me always becomes very difficult but let me tell you that the day after the election i went to a protest in new york and i spoke to 2 black voters and both of them were protesting against the election of donald trump but neither of them voted that donald trump thinks that he would did very well with the black Community One percent of the black vote the biggest success he achieved with black voters 4 years ago was that they didnt turn out they just didnt come out in the numbers that wed seen for barack obama and thats vital in the clinton lost no im eating more and more people and youre hearing examples of where people are registering in record numbers and black people are going to vote this time and overwhelmingly from what i can gather from anecdotal evidence from all the polls theyre going to vote for the democrats so where is 8 percent me seem like a lot for republican and certainly more than mitt romney got its not going to be enough if you want to carry the swing states the swing districts that weve been talking about particularly in places like michigan in North Carolina in virginia and so it becomes a much harder for donald trump to win the election. Then i dont want to do it if i can that Hillary Clinton she did not achieve the level of the black vote that barack obama did but nobody was going to get the level of wealth that barack obama she didnt have the level of that john kerry and al gore she so she returned to previous pre obama levels now what joe biden has to do is have seen the iraq obama level black turnout plus an order to make this in order for the Voter Suppression and the variations and backs of tea ballots but i just thats a guess important for people to recognize that you know she returned to pre obama levels and what biden has to do is maintain a low level turnout and i just quickly are a lot of people didnt vote because we looked at the polls to go back to the polls and thought well who is going to win most all the polls say shes going to win it so we dont leave it she doesnt be my boss and they stayed away from the all. But the other thing to remember hillary did not get out the more prompt did go into the inner city democrat areas and he did go off and obviously to the swing States Joe Biden is doing the exact same thing hillary does i mean we call him basement biden because he is not getting out and it appears that his handlers dont want him to get out and dont have anything to do with krone virus as much as it is a continual gas and he is very capable of shooting himself in the foot every time he lets a public appearance but hes going to have to get out and gauge particularly as we built the case that in the cities that have had some of the most egregious problems such as minneapolis theyre run by democrats and the Police Officer who killed george floyd 18 violations against him where was the democrat mayor where was the democrat governor why did they not do anything earlier and we are seeing in i think it something light 10 cities right now major cities they want to defund the place theyre not talking about reforming the plate discipline funding the police 64 percent of the American People do not support that position 57 percent of hispanic voters do not support that position so joe biden is going to have to own that position and its not a good its not a winning issue for the democrats well id imagine the kind of very hard. So messenger becomes really hard for the Trump Campaign because 4 years ago you could say im going in im going to break everything up im going to change things im going to do things differently and if the if the economy hadnt been so badly hit by corbett he couldnt run on the economy he could have said look are you better off than you were 4 years ago its the old reagan lie and many people would have said yes no if you stand up and say are you better or i things do things feel better than they did 4 years ago most people would say no and probably add an explicit of and then say no again so thats a big problem that im campbell in what they. And i know you want to say sums up but let me just respond route quickly on who do you think is going to rebuild the economy better joe biden are going to trump and when people are said in the poll they always say ill drop. Well i think that depends on who youre asking. To think i want to go on and. What i want to say one thing is i think joe biden being out of think thats a really false and unfair narrative were in a were coming just now states are beginning to reopen and we have been saying from the white house on now that you need to stand your home you need to buy your groceries or toilet paper or whatever else and so we can flatten the curve and sort of think that joe biden should be out with the president is saying hunker down is really interesting he has been out recently you know obviously for memorial day and all of the things youve been making. Use of Digital Space as he was appeared in the george floyd funerals in the sixtys in the places where he needs to be and thats all we can expect in the last thing i want to say just quickly is that i really dislike that we have tagged onto this defund the police the sort of thats a blanket notion and pushing people to think that that means zeroing out Police Budgets and that its not what it means it means reallocating so that the police can do the job but they are hired to do but not also have to serve as social workers and Mental Health workers and truant officers which is what many cities are requiring Police Officers to do theyre not trained for it theyre not equipped for it and we shouldnt be forcing them to fill roles that are not theirs by reallocating the funding for these large cities particularly when one 3rd of many large cities but just go to cable police and fun Police Departments and shifting that money so that Mental Health people can respond to Mental Health social workers can respond to social war calls truant officers. And not just make the police dont think that they are not shouldnt have to be focused on thats what. The Movement Means it means you know our make the police more effective. You know what i agree with you Many Democrats do this is. But that is not the position of at least 10 major blue cities in america and joe biden is going to have to answer to it this his constituents say but what i dont understand is why those blue cities run by democrats why havent they done this already they have the power to do it right now they dont need the white house they dont need a new president Police Matters largely or local control and they havent taken the steps yesterday i think an executive order the president sit were going to withhold federal grants to any Police Department that doesnt have this practice training and so the training on a federal level its going to be there even more than ever he also said hijack a system so that Police Officers would know so we did a whole show on that on monday on deep on the police and its you got tonight is actually an excellent show i want to ask you because you brought up the economy that if you look at 0 bamma unbind when they came into office it was at the height of the Great Recession they were given a shattered economy and actually turned it into a real winner after 8 years and turned it over to trump now were looking at unemployment the highest levels in my lifetime the con me seems like its in interrogators how is it that you can make an argument that trump would be better for the khana me than biden. Well well when you do not have and i dont want to be totally partisan here but i would say overly cautious maters and overly cautious governors in states that have not been allowed to reopen for example the state of virginia but dangerous playgrounds every day that are roped off so that fund in 10 year olds cant get but those same mayors had no problems at all with the protesters and you cant have it both ways you have to reopen it and as we reopen well see more jobs reports as we did in may when 2 and a half 1000000 new jobs came back strong and they are going to come back now i talked to somebody this morning who had just gotten back from new orleans and he said not all the restaurants were open in the reason why this is because they could not get employees when the hears his runs out and as you know 50 percent of the workers of america but getting paid now more for staying at home then they are for working when that changes people will go back to work and thats all going to happen in the summer so i agree with you we have a challenge weve got to get the economy back and the party in the white house is not always the economy but i think that it is going to come back and i think its going to be one of joe bidens biggest nightmares probably an audience of credit here that i roll can you expand. On. It were talking about here you know what i mean if in the middle of a pandemic and we have seen were seeing now what has happened in these states that chose to reopen because they want to put people back to work and now their numbers are skyrocketing as the as the theyre not i dont know what they are its on every night its not it really could have news i suspect that they were encouraged to take yesterday every state of that reopened early id let you finish every state that reopened is now experience of the. He opened early is now experiencing rocketing numbers so you cant have it both ways so also going to work at these jobs if not everyone is dead or sick it doesnt make its a matter of morals its a matter of what we place as value we can place the economy at a higher value that peoples lives but it seems to me that weve got to make sure that our citizens are healthy and have the resources they need to stay healthy that doesnt happen if we are reopening so early before we can even provide citizen week with testing with mats and with Solution HealthCare Solutions that will help libby and stay healthy it doesnt make any sense at all i know i just dont understand this argument of lets all go to work or then we dont have a guy 7 morrison up i have 60 seconds theyre going to cut us off are going to lose the show and im going to have alan Home Court Advantage let him jump in. There is about the economy but for the last 4 years youve had very very few republicans talking about the deficit when thats all we talked to both for the years of the abomb administration if the democrats win in november all we will hear again from the republicans is about the size of the deficit they wont talk about the tax cut the donald trump gave which profited a large number of very rich corporations and people they want talk about the money that had to be poured into the economy because of the corporate crisis which was necessary and was absolutely the right thing for the republicans and produced all trump to do what they will talk a lot more about the deficit if the democrats win the. All right were down to our last 30 seconds i tell you what i wanted to call you guys for joining us at home and thank you for joining us here in my home and. On this is the American Voters in november so we will see what happens in the meantime and we will stay safe. 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The brazilian journalist investigating a politically struction of land grab all the farmers helped yet another election and hes reprieve them thats empowering everyday people to profit from the destruction of the rain forest people are almost willing to give their life away to guarantee the occupation of the lands is journalism the last hope in the fight for sleep the amazon the says not only a land conflict but a conflict a narrative brazil the age of boston are all whose truth is it anyway on aljazeera is saudi arabia publicly championing womens rights so here goes committed to empowering its use empowering women while privately punishing those who step out of line theyve been aided. And from their will if there was taken to the security gate pointed out is there a world examines the alleged detention and torture of saudis women activists the only charges against them relate to their talking to foreign organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International saudi women reform or oppression on aljazeera. Be the hero the world needs. Washing. The. This is aljazeera. Hello there im the stasi a tale and this is the news hour live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes china charges a canadian businessman and a former diplomat with buying as a retaliation for the case against a wall way executive. A battle in court as president trying tries to block the release of a damning book by a former National Security advisor john bolton. New divisions and