Its called the seas act and targets backers of a strong man u. S. Sanctions came into effect wednesday against the asad regime in syria when it did not have a government of a political victory after years of conflict and how will regime allies react to new sanctions this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the show im sam is a than the war in syria has devastated much of the country and its people but president bashar assad has remained in power with the help of foreign allies what is now another threat facing tens of millions of syrians though the economy has been decimated its now a 3rd of what it was its currency is in freefall and that to that a shortage of basic goods and rising prices but as might not be able to count on his friends anymore to rebuild this state new u. S. Sanctions are now taking effect to punish anyone who does business with his country it targets politicians institutions businesses and those in gauged in transactions with the Syrian Government they could be banned from travel deny that access to u. S. Markets or even face arrest it could also affect partners like russia and iran but also those in the gulf and europe to american officials insist the sang. Will not harm syrian civilians the u. S. Congress passed the socalled caesar act that sanctions syria last december its named after a pseudonym used by a syrian defector who leaked more than 50000 the photos and videos documenting torture by Government Forces the u. S. Says the sanctions will put political and economic pressure on president asad to hole to human rights abuses and support a Transitional Government and they go further than existing measures in targeting the governments backers outside syria including businesses banking and oil and gas entities acids main backers in the war are russia and iran for law is seen as also targeting turn around and lebanon based hezbollah the conflict has pushed nearly 80 percent of the population into poverty the u. N. Says syrians are now facing even more hardship the economic crisis is hitting every. Regardless of territory controlled from damascus and the so its best to our left who and what theyre saying and. Medicine is more expensive and scarce food prices have skyrocketed and supply chains have been disrupted through tracing problem or ordinary syrians as seriously diminished as a very truce old argument and Public Sector are also inadequate to meet the demands on today. The economic crisis has led to antigovernment protests in assad strongholds of latakia and so wader the president sacked his Prime Minister after he criticized the governments handling of the situation but syrians fear the sanctions could limit their access to basic goods them in some other means meaning did it can the syrians have been suffering from the power shortage for many years because of the destruction of the infrastructure during the war but now the question is will the electricity situation change or become worse than it is now. We are afraid for the medical devices that we have they are mostly imported from abroad we do not manufacture medical devices locally specially Electronic Devices unfortunately every device that goes out of service due to maintenance or a malfunction is taking a lot of time to be repaired we are losing a lot of parts during this crisis and now we are more concerned for the future of these devices in particular. Lets bring our gas into the show now we have joining us from Norman OklahomaJoshua Landis director of the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma in istanbul dr markel executive director of the arm run center for strategic studies and in moscow Alexei Klebnikov middle east expert at the Russian InternationalAffairs Council thank you all for joining us if i could start with joshua so just to make everything clear now anyone in gauging in virtually any sort of transaction with the Syrian Government or an entity controls will fall under these sanctions right. Yes thats going to be particularly designed to hurt the lebanese lebanons only trading partner or next door to it is syria it has been the Banking System the lungs for the syrian economy this is going to use send a message to all lebanese dont trade with syria and its having a terrible effect on the line why would why would it need as you said designed to target lebanon is this a message to hezbollah in particular well im sure that people in washington hope its going to bring down his bylaw and turn lebanon into an American Partner that has democratic elections the chances of this happening are very slight hizbullah is much better positioned to win this struggle in a collapsing economy its the christians and the wealthy sudanese who are likely to leave the country and abandon it hizbullah which is a tough and and why are competitor ok thats an interesting perspective dr ahmad do you share that perspective will how how will this impact the syrian economy. I mean the syrian economy has been suffering for a long time now as a result of the systematic actions of the regime itself the regime has mismanaged its finances in this revenues and spent more on the war on killing people and pushing people out of the country and that is the root cause i mean the whole symbolic name of caesar was the rights of those who have been disappear at the rights of those who have been oppressed economically socially politically at all levels and so. One of the causes has been the lebanese financial crisis has caused the meltdown of the syrian pound that is a true statement in a lot of sense but that i mean that is the fault of. The Lebanese Hezbollah specifically i dont think that there was also a man who agree with joshuas analysis that it might ironically end up an bolding or empowering the very segment. That the u. S. Is trying to weaken at least the least as it applies to lebanon when it comes to hezbollah. I mean this did lets not over dre the a sense and the purpose of this law this law this act is is directed at all of the International Backers of the regime and those who would like to invest in the in the reconstruction and is telling them the message that youre not allowed to go back and normalize relations and continue supporting the regime. I dont think that this will improve in bolton or strengthen more than it is in fact it will make their life much different much more difficult it will make the life of those who even tolerate this a lot. More difficult or even the russians and not sense or other countries in the gulf or other backers or investors that like to invest it will make peoples lives those investors at the much higher difficult can see alexey was shaking his head i take it in disagreement that so let me give you from moscow a chance to weigh in on this is going to make life more difficult for countries like russia the back has of the assad regime actually i was nodding meaning that i agree with both of my colleagues. Anything we can still give you a chance to nod in agreement has well isnt this agreement. You know well because i think both my colleagues right and in general the. The act. Primarily designed to weaken the or at least to change to reduce behavior which i personally dont agree with but its more of its main target is to the send a signal to d damascus backers early russia and iran and the west has a lot that might well be come. Out of for them and also as recently james jadwin that ineffectiveness if you think to like keep you warm. Terry will it be an effective message you said its designed to send that message without the impact well definitely. Well definitely it will make syria a hey their burden to carry for russia and iran thats thats for sure given especially the very limited economic financial sources both countries have and. Yeah i mean thats definitely and impactful message but i dont think we should expect neither moscow nor to wrong to change overnight their mind or to change their policies towards syria ok i want to bring joshua back into the discussion off the question of the timing why now i mean this war has been going on for a very long time the allegations of abuse of torture all internment of indiscriminate bombing all of these things have been well documented for a very long time why are we only now seeing the cesar act coming into the fact well its had to percolate through all of these different systems you know i think look at these these acts are designed to punish. Those 3 actors you know that the Syrian Regime the russians iranians and of course hezbollah the point though i think is that you know this is a retribution for these. Leaders who have won the war in syria the problem is is that theyre least likely to be the ones that are hurt the most they will be hurt of course that we hurt everybodys going to be hurt in this but its still weak its the feeble its the hungry its all the children who are malnourished that are going to really be crushed by this and we know what what terrible effects malnourishment has on mental and physical development in children this is devastating and if its a you know a burnt earth. Retaliation for assads and iran is in russias success and it will make life miserable for them you know that the u. S. Special envoy jeffrey set my job is to make syria a quagmire for russia and iran and hizbollah and thats what this is really designed to do its going to turn it into a quagmire but as the rats each other you know as you witness the people get hungrier its going to be the strong who get the food the weak all right dont all right i guess thats see very obvious youve made a very clear point nothing duck tama if i can read how your shaking your head i think youll definitely disagree with that so let me let me give you a chance dont tama i mean i began the soul perpetrator of hunger of obstruction has been the government of syria that lets not lose focus of the true criminal on this planet and not the reactions of the International Community not obviously caesar act is not going to change overnight anybodys behavior it will not change the regime that and it may not the sara lee at least alone change the behavior of this region but it will might it will make its life much more miserable and it will cause International Actors to think twice before. Making any contracts or engagements or reconstruction or normalizing with one of the most criminal regime in modern history and so that the real focus is that where is the cause of hunger and i mean we all know the humanitarian aspect is exempt from this law so lets not directly say that it will definitely possibly there now it will cost i do see some negative repercussions on average individuals and average communities and across syria whether in North East North West and we know that the population of syria. Its been depopulated mostly and so this is where the humanitarian and the u. S. Has increased and europe a lot of its aid in during the last year and even the last few months to support those who are hungry and even in b. G. P. Areas and so this this doesnt mean that we abandon i mean obviously if you do this without the humanitarian element to to to cover it would be problematic but again also think about if you dont do this whos going to be emboldened its the prejean and its backers at the same time so its like you do it youre doomed and you dont do it and you get the same result so whether you can act this way you dont enact it the regime will always find its way and its backers to to circumvent it than to go around it oh i eventually want to say better of potentially countries canceling contracts alexy in moscow whats the likelihood of course that will russia iran they have a history of a facing us sanctions whats the likelihood that theyre going to now cancel perhaps contracts. Get how those perhaps deals. Related to either rebuilding syria or investing in its oil and gas industry well i dont think thats going to happen. Either in the short term nor in that made the long term dont forget that russia it was talking about russia its in syria for at least one yes this is the equipment which was signed between russia and Syrian Government for the lease of the. Base in the main and the 2 so im that means that my sheer will carry that burden no matter how hard it how heavy days. So i dont expect that change to happen either from russia nor from iran inside also want to get back to what mark mentioned about humanitarian aid already before that these are acts existing u. S. Sanctions and e. U. Sanctions in the e. U. Officials already acknowledged. That those sanctions they need to completely obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid to syria that is no question about that and opted in action and in act meant this is their act that will make it even even harder and actually the next month of this theater act it actually makes the e. U. Sanctions meaningless because. They say theyre acting compasses everything basically so thats a very. Tricky story ok dr ahmad give you a chance to come back in very briefly because i can see you want to have a rebuttal on that very briefly in 30 seconds i mean that the yes the russians wont cancel any contracts but the russians are going to continue to see dialogue with the United States and thats what the u. S. Has been trying to do and the russians and i think thats a mutual interest further dialogue between both countries not just on syria but are many files and i think thats one of the perhaps in direct object is of the caesar act ok and thats an important point ill pick up on in a 2nd but if we can perhaps just finish this thought on the economics of the whole situation joshua the syrian pound reached a record low to the u. S. Dollar on june the 8th. Is whats happening demonstrating that the Syrian Government can really no longer manage the economy and even its backers like iran and syria contrary say that this time. Youre right you know what they both need this is really the syrian pound has inflated in tandem with the lebanese pound it stems from the lebanese banking crisis in which they froze all dollar accounts and much of syrias economy businessmen and probably you know even elements of the government have kept accounts in lebanon all those were froze the money is gone the lebanese have mismanaged and run a big ponzi scheme and so there are no dollars to try to shore up the currency and the government is scrambling now and obviously its counting on russia and iran to step in and try to shore up the currency but in the meantime were in a hyperinflation situation with cove and with the war with the banking crisis all of this is compounded and the United States i think is you know obviously time this very well in order to kick the last props from underneath the Syrian People in order to tumble the country into a state of starvation hoping that this will. Force us into some kind of political concessions and thats the idea you know that the stated goal of the United States is not to turn this into a quagmire its to beget some kind of democratic outcome overseen by the u. N. But i cant see that after 9 years of war with assad winning that hes going to all of a sudden decide hes going to leave office and allow the opposition to come in and have a political process that has defied the United States for 50 years in syria its just not going to work but it will help start a lot of people want it and so i see this is a very negative thing but good for bill thomas point just if i may how do you respond though to the perspective that says look the Syrian People in the case the suffering thats the whole reason why this pseudonym mr caesar had to bring 50000 photos and videos you cant leave people suffering. Under a regime like that anyway theyre leaving it suffering this is not going to bring regime change i dont think anybody thinks even if you dont even the promoters of this dont think its going to have a real effect on our science behavior or the regime you know this is like asking a few 100 people to overturn a big military regime theyre not going to do it they can demonstrate but they cant overturn the regime and thats the problem this is going to start ok well its not because regime change let me through perhaps the thought might go to if the people can change the regime maybe the backers of the regime can change the regime alexy in moscow you said a moment ago of course you explain how much iraq russia is too heavily invested over the last 9 years in syria with the base and so on and so forth well is it possible they might not want to pull out of syria is it possible they might decide that the bush out of less of regime is too costly and might try and put their influence into regime change in syria. Well i think there is always a risk of you know rising costs of your. Involvement there but so far i dont think that the cost of russian involvement is. This is very pavey 4 to moscow so d i think that the involvement will continue and actually. Lets not forget that. Moscow clearly understands that damascus and selves are not the i mean its not the easiest part to deal with and i mean. If recall russias relations with its allies like for example below russia and armenia there are also tons of differences and promotions between them so you cannot expect relations between partners be being always smooth so this is why and thats the nature of disagreement natural friction but in general i dont think moscow will be ready to abandon what it has been investing in for the last 9 years and especially over the last 5 years and one of its main goals is to d showcase demonstrate is it a cuddle i dont read but is it possible that in order not to abandon what it has invested in i might decide the best thing is to get rid of this regime and have some kind of transition some political transition. Well. I wouldnt go that far saying that their regime it was i mean if we talk about the regime change were talking about the political solution were talking about the this stage structures russia is not read it to change that what russia my computer is changing all the. Leadership i mean moscow be in the country he was saying that its not backing off that as a person i often as a leader bought in in his in bottom and it backs the the syrian status or institutions from to prevent them from collapse to oppose what happened in iraq or in libya which threw those countries in uncontrolled couse ok lets bring dr ahmad in oil how do you see the possibility of perhaps political transition being instigated by the season a sanctions act i mean i mentioned that the cesar act will not create miracles it will not. Overflow the will overthrow the regime or cause by itself. It is one of the tools for accountability it is one of the tools that the u. S. You seem to to create rifts to create gaps between partners of the regime and on and therefore creating more opportunities for dialogue and negotiations. And so i mean that in terms of the hunger the hunger is already going and is he be seeing in syria as a result of the systematic policies of the Central Government and so lets thats not overt saturate that this act is going to create the miracles but also lets not also underestimate its power in creating new alliances in creating a new avenues for discussions and negotiations all right i think weve got about 60 seconds left let me give it to joshua and say looking at things from a domestic u. S. Political perspective or about what 5 months away from elections how important is it containment of iran and russia domestically to the u. S. Political calculations. You know President Trump is very transactional and hes working with various Interest Groups in the United States who have a big interest in and in syria and you know those we know are gulf in israel and so this this is what its about for the domestic its about winning the elections for President Trump and allowing certain Interest Groups to have their way in Foreign Policy and and thats you know i think it comes down to something very simple about the powers it domestically because americans dont care about syria that you know if the syrian star it doesnt make any difference to them or if a site survives or doesnt survive its really a very little material interest to the average american who dont even know where syria is but it is important for the political you know for the election process sad for the the Syrian People who so seem to be constantly on the you know the suffering end of this thats thank our guests very much for all of their contributions to this show joshua dont come on and alexi and thank you to fortune you can see the show again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion had ever taught Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle there is that a. J. Inside story from me sam is a that and the whole team here for now its good fun. A Global Pandemic mass protests demanding change economic recession and geopolitical tensions not to mention the small matter of a looming election join me Steve Clemons in conversation with leading voices on the bottom line your weekly take on u. S. Politics and society on aljazeera. If you are in beijing looking out the Pacific Ocean youd see American Warships when miss was that somehow time is aiming to replace america and going to run the world well the chinese are not that stupid these guys want to dominate a huge chunk of the planet this sounds like a preparation for our 1st president George Washington said if you want peace prepare for war the coming war on china talked one on a just. Examining the impact of todays headlines i need to go to work because i need to make money risking our lives by going in setting the agenda for tomorrows discussions racially charged social unrest on a scale not seen in the International Filmmakers who move cost journalists bring closure grounds to inform and inspire the terrorists but youre here to story your city walk the path fine ill just see iraq. With the Eco Friendly Solutions to combat threats to our planet on which is even. More. Im Richelle Carey and these are the top stories on aljazeera chinas top Decision Making body is reviving a draft for viewing rather attractive a Controversial National security bill for hong kong announcement it may spark criticism and protest amid fears that will curb freedoms a train brownnose and hong kong he says there are still questions around how the law but actually be used the devil is in the details and we simply dont have enough details meet chinas definition of what subversion what is sedition what is succession is very different from other governments the worry here is that hong kong is going to have imposed on it a vaguely worded law that could be broadly applied now in china they have a charge known as picking quarrels and provoking troubles not is the go to weapon of the authorities when they want to go after dissidents human Rights Groups journalists the worry is the same thing could happen here weve been hearing from journalist groups here in hong kong today who have carried out a survey 150 journalists were were questioned 87 percent of them said they now have grave fears about freedom of speech the future of freedom of speech in hong kong and some journalists are saying they might well quit the profession rather than remaining as a journalist we heard also of course on thursday from g 7 Foreign Ministers the Foreign Ministers represent