Hello there and welcome to the program im Laura Brennan libyas warlord how the have to aim to seize power by force he had the support of russia egypt and the u. A. E. And everything was going well for him until last month he suffered major blows in his battle to capture the capital tripoli as his plan to unseat the un recognized government base that collapsed have to use military losses were accelerated by turkeys military intervention in support of Government Forces after all has long resisted compromise botts now hes ready to talk hes accepted a cease fire plan for opposed by his ally the egyptian president up till fattah elsisi that would start on monday it would include foreign fighters leaving libya. Come out that even with our daughter ella the moment im sitting at the Initiative Aims to guarantee a fair representation of libyas 3 provinces in a president ial council elected by the people under the supervision of the United Nations it will manage libyas leadership for the 1st time in the countrys history and unite all libyan institutions this will enable them to play their role and guarantee fair and transparent distribution of libyan resources for all citizens the initiative will prevent extremist groups or militias from taking over the states resources it will also entail a constitutional declaration that would regulate the upcoming political and electoral obligations will have to has blames libyas deepening divisions on turkeys support for the internationally recognized government in that the one who took the 1st year i levy to fish intervention deepens the state of internal polarization by supporting the unconstitutional government of National Accord with more weapons and fighters it also depends on the state of international and regional polarisation around libya in light of the conflicting interests among most of the countries involved in this conflict well libyas un recognized government has rejected the truce force our forces allies to it say theyll press on to reclaim territory from anyone half done hes still in control of the east and much of the self whether a Major Oil Fields but Government Forces are now closing in on sirte the last major region before the traditional boundary between libyas west and its east that advance has come off the Government Forces controlled areas surrounding the capital tripoli theyve also seized the city of the huna after last stronghold in the west they reversed the course of have 2 hours offensive on tripoli in may when they captured a base. Thank you lets bring in our guests now and joining us here today we have jim ill go mattie in london hes the special envoy of the Libyan Government of National Accord to tunisia algeria morocco and mauritania here in doha omar sure hes a founding chair of the so of the Security Studies program at the institute for graduate studies and from brussels james run former European University egypt jordan and yemen and is also the e. U. Senior coordinator in libya during the 2011 revolution a very warm welcome to all of you jim let me start with you today why has the g. N. A. T. Rejected this call for a cease fire on monday by sisi and after. Because this is a cold one sided corner by egypt imposing thinks on libya without any consultation whatsoever these sides to the conflict in libya are many the g. N. A. T. Is an important part also the house of representatives or parliament which sits atop brooke has many many of its members far more than though those who supported have turned is im now sitting in tripoli for the last over a year and have their own leadership also there is another state council in tripoli these institutions are the institutions which came out of the libyan political agreement these are the recognize 6 is that you should by the International Community to janni is that argument is government by the International Community all these are sites today a conflict that has a fork and initiative only one side it only consult it would have to and im not consulting with the other sites or to even telling them that its going to launch an initiative this cannot be a fair and Just Initiative from an honest broker and initiatives ok this is a unilateral call for a cease fire to present that was if he ever really believe that the d. N. A. Would accept it. It is very difficult to say what the the. Basically the initiative is noise in the background its egypt. d or home and see government does not have a monster that the many sides of the even some sides within the. Tack on the west on intervention. The bombing the tripoli since august 2014. The support for the fuel offensive why are you were doing a Peace Process why are they you and secretary general was in talks with have. And all the developments the pep and that does not give it the political credibility to be the peacemaker in the ending that was not the case was actually us pointed for a sustained for that for the peace for process and for many of the u. N. Backed efforts now you know to come out of that and the polls after you know the offensive. And now the commentary offensive is focusing well reaching now. To come at this point and propose an demobilization and disarmament process letting the really the ginning d. N. A. Who successfully did stop the offensive and then launch the confluence of to tell them now and over your weapons to a socalled enemy that no one needed a good night is there to determine on except the egyptians of the op these and some of the other backers its like a its straight a noise in the background so who would take this seriously in any way. Yeah theres a lot in the cairo declaration that i want to get into in in just a moment but before we do james as want to get an idea from you whether you were surprised to see this strong man this renegade military general he thought have to are standing somewhat meekly beside thesea asking for a cease fire well i dont think he had much choice and being clearly the military scales weighed against him more than 2 months out hes been losing territory losing evolutions and west. Is because a 70 offensive or one of the options that i missed the hat and those circumstances. Probably to try to get some breathing space. Whether through a ceasefire or whether through other means but i agree with the other speakers egypt is not best place to make this Initiative Given its past support promise after and a lot of contacts between egypt and the g. O. P. And certainly there and indeed the janet backers is a real problem of course between turkey and egypt in the wider region and turkey is an absolutely key player in all of this you know. A serious attempt to peace and its going to be why do you think then it was egypt that came forward with this and not the u. A. E. Or not russia or or any of other supporters. Well i want to start the egypt consulted with the russians with the iraqs in its number that was before doing it it may not have been egypts idea couldnt somebody elses idea that egypt being a neighboring arab country with a obviously a key interest understandably in the stability in their view or. An opinion. Or put down the least worst position as it were to our Us Initiative but i do agree with the other speakers this is not an initiative there which is that it has much stamina much legs and i dont know how worried should egypt be t. N. A. Advance across the east and towards the oil fields. Im not sure about wording that im not sure about the ability i dont think the current government in egypt once the 5 off that it is that the un and many of the other International Community members want the fence yes collation followed by some sort of the mobilization reined in thats what i think. Which was a very very weak in that even though i was a bit critical of it because the study ambitious was talking about what had the weapons in 60 days which was extremely on the other 6 but anyway it is a book framework i dont think egypt wants that framework because the type of the regime or the type of regime that would use is not the type of the vision that egypt wants in a big basically a framework for a constitutional democracy with peaceful commission off hour and some sort of. I wouldnt say federalism because its a its a contentious were written they give us some sort of the essential i think an awful hour from the center to the to the other 2 to the different regions. That sort of regime is the antithesis of what egypt has at the moment. So it wont embrace this kind of stuff but it would actually would fight to create instability and then could use a similar regime time to what it wants which is basically a former general some sort of Flash Forward for north. That is that takes over the country the problem with that method is that egypt actually has the firepower it has a minute 30 that that stayed intact and since probably 154. 00 to the exact was more or less from folding the Political Economic and security in minute to the ethics of the country and india does not have that what it has is a full selfdefense Even National army was basically on my. A bunch of military defectors slash warlords a group of tribal militias all that but together and with international mercenaries professional mercenaries and tribal militias there are none to get from sudan. So that coalition really does not have enough manpower or firepower do it to equal some sort of a military dictatorship. Such as one in egypt so what happened is that if these if the last the combat. I mention and based on the losses of the comet i mentioned were now seeing the political unfolding but the population egypt. And they and their theyve been on russia and for Different Reasons than that. Jim lets talk a little closer look at this cairo declaration m. O. Is talking about foreign fighters being involved in libya one of the things that it has said all calls for is the withdrawal of foreign fighters from all of libyas territories i mean there are a lot of foreign fighters on both sides of this conflict. Well a lot of foreign fighters definitely from day one that have to actually pull him back in april last year. His force is a combination of multi not and of international mercenaries were talking about not just the general would from sudan and chad the end mercenaries were talking about a very important component of vaclav medicine is the Russian Special forces vice versa or some 1600. 00 of them who are have to use and used to drive tactically and they have been attacking to police for the last 14 months and its only a month ago that the g. N. A. T. We managed actually to dislodge dont push them back and at the end theyve decided to withdraw them and weve seen the withdrawal of dividing those through town hall and then ben you were lead it was obvious to everybody on the ship them out in plain sight to you from possibly maybe get around somewhere and so so the claim that have to have a proper army libyan National Army is a is a fallacy this is is this force is that is just. Complete nation of local militias and regional and international militias and this is a team that isnt a something that because i just need to ask how strong the g. N. A. S. Fighting forces are because its clear that its been the Turkish Military intervention that spurred on these latest military battlefield victories and a lot of fighters that have been hardened battle hardened in syria have been joining the fight so if they were to depart how strong with d. N. A. Be without them. What lets remember. C. C. And have to admit mitt made a lot of this turkish involvement because at the time and correlation and all that lets remember that from april 4th 2019 and till january of this year almost 9 or 10 months there was turkey was not on the scene at all daydream and we signed with turkey was on the 27th of november the implementation of that agreement started early this year so what will do or not the 1st 910 months at all and then turkeys support mystical support military support. Equipment and drones and so on started to come in and obviously it made a difference but to say that from day one half there was fighting the genie which is heavily backed by fighters and army and military support from turkey as it is a fallacy and at the same time egypt when it talks about withdrawing foreign fighters or foreign groups it totally disregard divide a lot of the chat audience and also it is egypt all personal military advisors and support as well as longest and also that other mercenaries i mean the pilots from serbia from a cranium from belarus from belarus and so on so you know if thats why when we say about this initiative its totally one sided it totally ignores what house there is doing his attack on tripoli since since since 14 months ago and what was egypt all these 4 months is in is it a coincidence that egypt called egypt has never ever called for a ceasefire until yesterday ok is it a coincidental let me just jump in because it was called by sisi but lets not forget that there was the french the italian russian and u. S. Envoys all at that cairo announcement there are a lot of players in the libyan conflict to the they all support this call for a ceasefire for the 2 sides to get back to a u. N. Sponsored dialogue. Im not sure that they do certainly francis made his position pretty clear that it supports the guy or their issue that the italians are now speaking of the european seeing the italians were represented there in cairo but i havent seen any message of support for the declaration itself i think they were more there in terms of being an observer dont forget the italians. Are larger than a supporter of the d. N. A. Interpreted for other reasons and military ones whole at some time now so that is a problem in europe still that we have 2 major European Countries france on the one hand its early on the other taking different positions on this conflict which is made it difficult for the e. U. Itself as a company with some sort of he said or should have already still contribute more effectively to peacemaking we need to continue to work on that in europe if the europe is going to play its part in europe does its pop lead no question about it in the whatever the solution will be political solution because the reason no military solution to all of this as mr hatters discovery at the moment one thing though on the Foreign Policy as a story. I dont doubt that the entire declarations dont make any difference as the current current event is a concern but sooner or later that matter has to be dealt with far too many boots on the ground from different interests and Different Countries fighting in the area and so long as they are there it will be extremely to anybody United Nations or any particular country to press forward with a real peace plan libya only is to get to grips with this and its not being given the chance to do so what does it need want what tools does it need to get those fighters out to to move forward on it on its own terms. I think much will depend on what the cio decides to do that. Much as though they will press forward on a set new they will take set once they are taken separate they are then going to have some difficult decisions to make in tripoli as to where next do they press articles going to these of course was to have to support in these fragile maybe there are alternatives there are maybe some people who would welcome an intervention tripoli on the other hand i would expect there to be a large much broader scale if indeed the offensive pushes forward at that point once they are so you can set. The jna mind decided then in conjunction with its supporters itself to try to once again return to the terrible difficulty there is going to be trust. The trust and after himself and the people around him is near 0 mostel what month will speak is that the. Failure of the 2nd general United Nations visit my last year there in moscow and mr howard will tell him to sign was with the mourners agreed to the cease fire agreement theyre dealing with mr hat is going to be very very difficult but that i think is going to be the next. After the final set of jacques specter the g. N. A. T. When ok and i think that is absolutely full of 14 or so that says what is the d. N. A. Is plan is it to keep pushing forward to keep going into the east to try to take all of the libya and try to unite it. Well i think that ive said it many times that the d. N. A. Which is the legitimate government recognized by the International Community has the right to extend its control over the whole of libya so yes we have now pushed have to out of the whole of the west sort of broadly going to be completed soon then we have you for all we have the south after school to roll over the south is very very loose and i think lloyd is that will change very quickly and we have another very important junction which is the oil crescent have there has closed down the oil crescent and start stop and hold the oil export libya depends entirely on oil exports for revenue which base salaries and base subsidies for food and for fuel and for essential Services Like medical services and others and now the close of the oil crescent by half that is causing hardship and a lot of pressure starship and economic pressures on the libyan population so the genie has every right to liberate those the earth because of the reason as well and take control of the oil fields in the southwest of libya so that oil countless again so that avenues can start again so that the hardship of the libyan population and the west and the east and the south can actually be is this is a legitimate right and the n. O. C. Which go towards d i n sector in libya the National Road corporation which is part of under the under the control of the g. N. A. T. Has every right to be in control of the a sector again this is according to the resolutions by the National Security and the whole International Community recognized that the n. O. C. Should be in charge and i know youre not a comment about it. Have to lose control of those oil fields in the in the oil present. Well there will probably the 5 to back him by one way or another there sure is there are limits to. d d the minister the capacity just does not have a good record in terms of medicine he thinks that hes actually not echoed in the last in the dissenter in the last one or more see it or whether its counterinsurgency or convention will fit. So that it is a vision issue there to be eyes that will for the political record of whether mr hastert or his backers. Are not that great either so we connected specifically. We had the. Least constantly nagging on the political process and we know that supporters are of different types theres a famous site that there are some for this and i think he fits that category quite well and thats the problem with making these i think is if this if it were to be done this would probably be done but with other forces in the in the theres another issue with the fed through about the. Growing cities we have to remember the i. D. P. Plight or the internally displaced persons theres about over 100000 of them in the west were displaced on places like these guys and. Other towns and cities and many of them are actually fighting with the feeling that so given the fires and to be out on the harvest how would this affect the attitude that he the siege specially with tribes are very large like them a lot of the flows in the in all those. The that this cycle where this is mainly a city shift. Some point one of them again in egypt and the you you were fired to make sure that this law is already in line with a bigger project in the form of another. One and im going to jump in that weve got one minute left and just in that last minute i want to get an idea from james as if the situation on the ground in libya and with all of them several players has sisters and the fs for a turning point in libya right now. Najera i dont think so no im afraid that it looks as if were going to see more military action or a little while to come through i dont want to marry her. Which is not another year or more country or southern us as i was there in 2000 and. 8 year a couple of times and i saw myself well really because the better very courageously overthrew a brutal dictatorship and theyre still suffering all now and i mean all of the west wherever they are so we have to hope that it wont go on for too long but i dont think the military story as yet over as i say a lot will depend on the attitude that you know and of course the average principal back is totally and russia in particular and can europe get it together to join him and play a more active role the question for European Countries is ok well on that note for latin leave it there for today many thanks to all our guests for joining us james moran omar sure and Al Gore Mattie and thank you 2 very much for watching you can see this program again any time by visiting our web site thats aljazeera dot com and a further discussion to go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com for slash a. J. 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