Too major powers one of the disputed himalayan border india and china blaming each other for confrontations over the past month but why is this happening now and could the tension trigger a military conflict this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program im Bernard Smith trouble is brewing on the roof of the world india and china both claim territory along the himalayas. As the worlds tallest Mountain Range the border dispute goes back decades and tension is on the rise again the Indian Military says in the 1st week of may indian and chinese soldiers scuffled and threw stones at each other in the penguin so lake and nakoula areas Chinese State media say indian troops trespassed on chinese territory and accuse them of trying to build the fence facilities but indias government says its soldiers stayed on it signed both sides appeared to be bolstering their presence and australian security analyst posted these satellite pictures on twitter last week they appear to show both sides building more tense and roads within 5 kilometers of the line of actual control which separates the 2 armies diplomatic relations between india and china are deteriorating as katrina you explains from beijing theres always been a dispute that about the territory but in recent weeks its been intensifying between clearlake chinese soldiers in india isnt soldiers who disagree over the the last line of control because of this weve had skirmishes fist fights no bullets fired yet but there is a real fear that these scuffles as they become more intense could lead to all out conflict china and india share one of the worlds longest unmarked borders both have territorial claims on more than 3 and a half 1000 kilometers of lamb a month long war in 1962 ended without any resolution and there have been several stand off since then the latest in 2017. A year later the chinese and indian leaders held talks to maintain peace in the region she jinping and the renderer modi met again in october last year. Lets introduce our guests in new delhi we have brahma chill lanie an author and professor of strategic studies at the center for policy research hes a former advisor to Indias NationalSecurity Council in the german city of light adam ni a specialist on chinas Foreign Policy and Security Issues and in bloomington indiana Sumit Ganguly a distinguished professor of Political Science at Indiana University bloomington hes a member of the council on Foreign Relations welcome to you all brahma ill begin with you after all this time why now these flare ups along this border its a good question the president should be believes that the pandemic is an opportunity for china to expand it if you havent in fact the dalai university ordnance recently that great steps in history have always emerged from the crucible of major disasters so we see xi jinping expanding his agenda trying to decimate hong kongs Global Economy he has made moves in the South China Sea including setting up 2 new elucidated of this tricks the chinese course car last month ran around and sank their knees question boat and now were seeing what are cleared up with india so whats happening on the. Front here needs to be seen in the broader context in which shouldnt be is a granting has expansionist agenda. At a time when the world is grappling with a time out rigidly fundamental autumn is that what it is china thinks the worlds attention has been diverted and it is seeking to a stop wish strenth the lonely himalayan Indian Border you know certainly disagree with that i think both india and china both have been heavily affected by depend emic so far and both have an interest in maintaining peace what it tackled domestic challenges and especially so beijing given that beijing has plenty of challenges to deal with in hong kong change on economic recovery as well as its important relationship with the us which has taken a very confrontational 10 years and just to name a few so it doesnt need another confrontation at this point in time. But at the same time i think the leaders in beijing doesnt want to appear weak if this was to escalate especially at a time when to the mystic public is anxious about chinas need to me future i think is certainly true that we need to see days in the waters sweep of chinese shortage of thinking and ambitions but i would just like to point out that there is a lack of clarity on exactly what has happened up to this point given that media reports of being clever at it by official sources and its really fueling speculation on what has happened so were not exactly sure what happened yes so lets not jump to a conclusion sumit why do you think were hearing more reports of confrontations up that only along the himalaya borders between india and china why now. A largely because the chinese have taken it more as a set of past chair and are probably probing indias capabilities unresolved along the border this is something that has actually been going on for the last several years in fact i would trace this back to 2014 when she jinping visited india and in the midst of that visit there were a series of incursions that took place and its hard for me to believe that a local commander would have taken the initiative to undertake incursions while the president was irritating it in india that really stretches the imagination to a breaking point so there is actually a pattern of incursions and this is the latest there are and i think it has much to do with china feeling their way or the frustration of the group Global Community with its very opaque handling of the covert 19 pandemic and added mormon and also when india is sort of fit fully moving closer to the United States and this is clearly a message from beijing saying that you know we can create troubles for you along the border if you try to causey up to the United States brahma the bin confrontations up there before weve seen fists thrown between both sides but theyve always come down in the past why would it not calm down this time because whats happening now is far more serious than what we have seen in many years. In fact its not just a one incursion tribbles mentioning the 2014 incursion when president xi jinping arrived in new delhi he came with this encroachments now we have several incursions that happened in the Northern Iraq region at least 4 standoffs as of today between chinese and indian troops because the chinese have entered after 3 kilometers beyond the line of control so we have constant patients at several points and therefore the escalating all of these different concentrations will require the Political Leadership both in beijing and in new delhi to be able to engage and such matters are and given given the pressure that president xi faces you know he is playing the nationalist card at on he doesnt want to be seen as weak he has upped the ante with the v. Several of its neighbors including countries in Southeast Asia examples ramming and sinking m. S. M. Is fishing boat. And right now im of the Friendly Neighbor of of china that was one example of several in recent weeks where china had land that pandemic to assert itself but what is happening along the china and europe front here is a very sick we many serious situation that can potentially go out of control if they cannot come down adam you can see why from the indian side india might feel more defensive its spending 71000000000 dollars on defense last year china spent 261000000000. 00 on defense but the situation of car have come down up there in the past could this escalate do you think. Theres certainly a possibility that this would escalate so i mean i guess i guess there are various reasons various theories why we think this is happening but one of these of course as previously mentioned is to increased activity up there this is a very remote part of the wild but increasingly there are more. Infrastructure construction and and military infrastructure in the border areas right so this is both sides both indians and the chinese. Developing days these assets and now in the warm weather there are just small d border patrols along the region leading to more fictions between front line officers which you know a lot of them are resolved but some of them clearly could go out of control so i think if only i just want to point out that theres actually a lack of consensus on the both side as to the line of actual control so. That and that really leads to the perception on both sides that the other side is it is being aggressive and that they themselves are only responding to the pressure from the other side so i think both sides have that perception so why has it been so difficult to establish an official border along that there was. A mechanism set up in 2003 of special representative to sort this out somebody is somebody stalling i think. The principle problem is that the chinese have time on their site they can well afford to stretch this out and they are the ones who have the most expansive claims so lets be clear about this that they are there evasion is to power the indians do not have planes that own on chinese territory its the p. R. C. That has significant claims and initiated the war in 1960. 2 subsequently there was a clash in 1967 and again in 1986 and the 67 and 86 clashes were quite significant and that there have been 20 rounds already been possibly even 21 im losing track now of discussions of attempts to settle the border but the progress has been really glacial and principally because the chinese are not is specially forthcoming in terms of what they deem to be is the appropriate but our border a brahma what is the Strategic Value there to either india or china or is there any Strategic Value aside from asserting dominance you spotted lenten there malias our strategic role your book tour china to india in fact. You mention was made of the line of control not being clear they are from areas for example the cecum tippet partner where though International Border is immediately recognized and yet in recent weeks we have seen tensions and flare ups even along that internationally recognized border theres another sector the middle sector of the india china front you know where the 2 sides have actually exceed mapped with each other showing their clean lines so each side knows where the and control light yet in recent days the chinese have built up waters along that middle to sector and there have been attempts to improve into the indian side so i tried just lack of clarity even met the line is clear they have been incidents the reason is that. Shining scrooges mean american leader miles and miles are singing to redraw the line of control in the himalayas theyre trying to grab vantage points overlooking enemy positions so its all about having the advantage militarily this is why were seeing china today having having intruded at score different points in the law allows our creature is now sitting pretty calm down in indias dolemite because indias choices are quite tenable ok when it is appearing to go to war with china because the chinese came in suddenly at each point their case in 8021000 chinese that have that set up heavily fortified and content now evicted them where the choir military action and military action will lead to a full fledged war so india have this is a very difficult dial emma that isnt why the Political Leadership in new delhi keeping quiet thickness if there bit these incursions public pressure will build up on the leadership to even then protests ok and that interaction will lead to what forgive me ok adam is that it. China is not and is not pushing to establish these borders because its going to assert itself militarily 1st and then from the position of strength that it might try and talk later. I mean thats the pattern were seeing other. Territories peaceful except in the South China Sea a way you know china is building up its forces and assets in the region despite the clarity despite the lack of clarity of its sweeping claims in the South China Sea. You know i do think there is a possibility that this mine escalate if nationalise opinion. If nationalist opinion in both countries. Becomes becomes quite strong you see sure and i think it will be if if if this goes on for much longer in the media and thats going to pressure both governments to adopt tougher measures against each other leading to a high chance of escalation sumit let me move on to what adam says that we have an increasingly assertive china on the xi jinping on a more overtly nationalist india and in the render modi will not cause problems if this continues if these confrontations continue. I certainly think so but peculiarly if these chinese provocations continue because you see theres a larger pattern over here faced with criticism on their lack of transparency on the covert 19 issue china has also engaged in what the era of further into themselves as wolf warrior diplomacy there a very aggressive stance which suggests that the problem is really didnt emanate in china they have floated all manner of bizarre theories about the United States being responsible for having released this virus on the world and so the and simultaneously bear in mind that they have gotten no we were there are very expansive claims in the South China Sea the Obama Administration did not confront them fully and the trumpet ministration has waxed and waned in terms of its response and consequently at a time when theyre feeling pressured by the Global Community on other issues they are asserting themselves in a range of the areas and trying to divert attention away from the govt 19 issue in which they are clearly culpable bramah you have got a more assertive india nationalist india and in a render modi could his hand before stiff these confrontations continue or does he realize he cant take on the chinese. I think modi faces a barrister and or whats happening because he has made better relations with china in major Foreign Policy priority ever since he came to office hes been trying to mend relations with china for example in pretty 14 just after he came to office postponed it trip to japan by 6 weeks so that he could 1st host xi jinping as the 1st world leader and more recently in the last couple of years there has been the war on some of the one summit between modi and she didnt ping and a few months ago they had another summit in india in chennai and all of these were all these own initiatives as president she said that it was a modi who proposed post if there was one summit saw the escalation of tensions the confrontations that we are witnessing are far more the. Matter of embarrassment but in fact the make up broader point china has been assertive rather be several of its neighbors it has had nor significant drop critical price to pay for example it has fundamentally changed the status quo in the South China Sea without firing a shot and yet there have been no International Consequences for its actions in the South China Sea similarly a 1000000 or more muslims have been detained in sync again but china has faced no International Sanctions and now. John i was reading to decimate hong kongs constitutional autonomy ok succeeds in if it succeeds in in not underweight hong kong autonomy were not facing any International Consequences but it will be sure that will turn the final indian front into as soon of the real conflict or not can i ask you just broadening moving away from the border a bit chinas got to control controls a key ports in sri lanka now india nervous about that even though chinas military isnt allowed to use it china india house poor is to be concerned about chinas motives in that part of the world doesnt it when you are what is doing in sri lanka and whats happening on the border together yes surely it does i mean it also chinas relationship with pakistan right now for example isnt going to go its only issue. China india relations india has plenty to worry about about a rising china about one thats more a said if and more and expansionist at the same time however india and china have have a lot of common interests theyre both rising powers so that if they if they compete fiercely then its to both of their detriment so i think. So so i think today there are pressures both to cooperate with each other but as well as to compete and some its again about the ports in sri lanka that china now controls is militaries not allowed to use it but obviously india is worried about these worried about the himalaya border does india have something to worry about or should it really see china as a partner. Well there are areas where china and india have cooperated but these have been treating moments of cooperation based upon exigent circumstances for example briefly at the world trade organization. Here on issues of Climate Change but these have been picked at particular moments ultimately we have to recognize that there is a strategic rivalry between china and india and china sees india as the principal impediment to the realization of its interests in dominating most of asia and india is growing close in this with japan and the United States why hes the chinese because on its own india cannot do very much because of the sheer disparities of power in a number of different material realms whether its economics where that where its the air of military power or even diplomatic prowess but you know if india successfully manages to build a set of strategic relationships with say vietnam with australia with the United States and japan then india becomes a much more formidable rival and this is something that the chinese clearly do not want to countenance so sumit can i just then quickly ask you talking about the hat chinas handling of coronavirus before india is overtaken the taken over the chairmanship of the World Health Organizations executive board is that going to cause stresses between india and china in the coming months as the pressure builds for an inquiry into the origins of coronavirus march depends on how the indian minister who has now taken over as the chairman of the board. Responds if he be. He aims in a timid fashion and kowtows to the chinese then i suspect there will be little or no reason for friction or further tantrums on the other hand if he takes a more assertive position and seeks a dispassionate inquiry into the origins of this crisis then i fear that the chinese will almost invariably escalate on other fronts or gentlemen unfortunately we are out of time but thank you very much for joining us thanks to brahma chill aney adam ni and to Sumit Ganguly and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page but facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter we are apt a. J. The inside story and im at his ear of the from a Bernard Smith the entire team here in doha by foot. 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