The race to the point. Can trump survive these historic sent back until the job probably of what it takes to beat. Special coverage on just. A punishment or a redeployment the u. S. Decision to remove Patriot Missile batteries from saudi arabia is making the kingdoms leadership nervous they were supposed to protect riyadh from iran so whats changed and this poil politics at play this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im peter dalby the United States is removing its patriot and t. M. Missiles and other Weapons Systems from saudi arabia the us president on the trump says its part of an effort to scale back on a military presence that he says doesnt benefit the u. S. American weapons and fighter jets were sent to the kingdom last year after Saudi Aramco Oil facilities were attacked they were also intended as a deterrent as tensions rose between tehran and washington but the reduction in the u. S. Military presence is believed by some to be based on assessments iran no longer poses an immediate threat to u. S. Strategic interests when asked about the decision President Trump stayed away from giving specific details well i dont want to talk about it but were doing some things were making a lot of moves in the middle east and elsewhere were doing a lot of things all over the world militarily weve been taken advantage of all over the world our military and. In the sense that were and this is nothing to do with saudi arabia this has to do with other countries frankly much more we have. The most powerful military in the world the military relationship between the u. S. And saudi arabia goes back almost a century since the search for oil in the gulf state began in 1933 now since then the u. S. Military has advised the kingdom and kept troops there and certainly arabia has become the largest buyer of american weapons the 1st airport on saudi soil was built in 1905 and operated by the u. S. Air force for most 20 years before being switched over to civilian use the u. S. Has kept at least 5000 soldiers in the kingdom since the very 1st gulf war the number rose 210000 during the 2003 war on iraq. Ok lets get going lets introduce our panel in washington d. C. We have joel reuben president of the Washington Strategy group here in doha we have. Director of Gulf Studies Center at cattle university and tehran we have Mohammad Marandi head of the American Studies Department at Tehran University welcome to you all joel rubin in maryland is this just a rotation or something more significant than that. Oh its certainly not a rotation in in terms of a normal routine operation this is a demonstration that right now the threat from iran from an american assessment is diminishing that threat towards saudi arabia and towards the saudi Oil Facilities and in addition to that there could clearly supposed to be recognition in the truck that ministration that saudi arabia may have taken americans to court who are granted the bits you much certainly from donald trump because the the oil price. In that was caused by mohamed bin salma really impact the United States on oil economy and many of Donald Trumps core constituents so a president truck maker will be sending messages well that dont take us or replanting for granted Mohammad Marandi in tehran how will this be viewed in the iranian capital i dont think they see it as being married from portent and i dont think that iranian policy in the region has changed in any way or form so for the americans to make this move either or is because the United States wants to put more pressure on the saudis to get gain more benefits financially or because has your gas in washington pointed out because of the oil policies pursued by mohamed bin salman which has been very destructive to the Us Oil Industry but. For the moment its not even clear if the americans are really going to decrease their presence and so here a bit we have to see what happens. Mushrooms witty here in doha is it a fact of the relationship here that saudi arabia has taken the friendship of whoevers in the oval office for granted and this is a warning shot to all saudi leaders from all the american leaders i guess from now and in the future you cannot do that you cannot take that relationship as a given i would argue that there was a move from the United States side started there obama when it comes to the troops the relocation and. Basically withdrawing the troops from woods on like the finest that there are and thats cross or started as we know it and that about obama. Trump did promise that he will continue this maybe this is one of the. Points he agreed with. But obama however when it came to the so did the saudis he was very cautious because he was about to build strong ties with mom of the segment so he was a little bit. Hesitant and re so at the beginning of his presidency that how he basically try to avoid any kind of confrontation was so that it dont it comes to type the truth look asian actually he he sent troops to so these. 2 times in the last 2 or 3 years because of the saudi perception of this iran and a threat. So basically what we see is i would say its. A step within a context with the withdrawal of the many controls however this step came in the context of oil prices and the sody action which should be to proceed by the americans i would argue against that its being pursued by a trumpet decision thats hurting the economy hurt to the base of the trump and the units that election to ruben in maryland thats the simple equation here is it not were defending your industry while youre destroying ours because you at one point will flooding the market with oil yes that is clearly the immediate touchstone that just happened but taking even a step back in terms of american saudi relations there is a loop point on capitol hill weve seen in the past year 2 major bipartisan votes that sent legislation to President Trump that essentially were saying dont follow those who lead on policy in the gulf and the president from veto them but im referring to the work hours resolution that just this past week the president had to be to which was about preventing him from striking iran which in many ways but just by the idea of protecting saudi arabia against iran and then the other was a bit earlier about a half year ago which was the work powers resolution blocking American Military equipment from being sent to saudi arabia for the war in yemen thats it was vetoed by President Trump but there is real bipartisan pressure coming from capitol hill against President Trump and saudi arabia has not our colleague in doha said President Trump has been trying to work with study ranking despite that but maybe this is just a bridge too far to try to essentially destroy the American Oil Industry in the midst of a pandemic which goes right at the heart of Donald Trumps core voting constituency that really showed a lack of judgment by saudi. And up President Trump got pressure from capitol hill saying why are we protecting this country so much if we want to undermine our our industry here Mohammad Marandi into iran what do you say to those critics of the iranian leadership who say well off the back of the assassination of custom still a money and now given the deteriorating relationship between washington and riyadh iran might know belies itself across the broader region in a way i think that what the important thing that has to be taken into account is that. The mess that we have in this region when we look at it from teheran is due to the Us Saudi Alliance and of course there is always israel israel in the background the whole mannus about qaeda and wahhabi extremism came as a result of the u. S. Of the alliance in afghanistan and then the United States and its allies use the same tool in syria as we know from the u. S. Defense Intelligence Agency document of 2012 and general Michael Flynn interview on aljazeera where he made this very explicit and he pointed it out but despite the fact that after 911 many of the United States were raising this issues but after a few years again the United States went back to its addiction to using so the capabilities with regards to such extremist groups and use them across the region so the iranians believe that the United States ended its. Unique lets say the usage of such extremism. And any and if the United States ended its threats for a sovereign and independent countries in the region many of the problems with it exists. Where it here in doha what is its about the Saudi Arabian leadership and clearly were talking about the crown prince here my have been some man that they refuse up until now maybe even theyre not doing it they seem to refuse to accept that the oil price has been crushed by the coronavirus you know demand has fallen off a cliff no one is driving no one is flying and yet they still wanted to flood the market they were warned by donald trump there was a phone call early march and still they went ahead and did it. You know as you know peter the game started added actually when it comes to the oil price but i would say that the issue is about politics and about you know the need. To book you know each side to the other side i mean if you look at whats happened in the saudi iranian relations and the so the american traditions its obvious that the consequence one to america decision to support him become become the king and one kind of mix support of so deep so he can be. Elected in november 2020 so this kind of give and take between both sides was was working very well i would say at the beginning of 2020 i think for the mic and corona crisis it was was invading the world i think the saudis maybe did not read it well or maybe the they wanted to pressure the trump to do something when it comes to the some regional issues including get on and i think they misread. The american politics and there are a trump they think hes expansionary cant do everything he would not be you know calculating it stepped it up you know appears to be actually you know and this year he was actually reading in the steps and he was thinking about some of the steps when it comes to the region he said i would not fight instead of anyone saudis they have to solve the problem and we remember what happened and. He said im not defending saudis and that was a very clear message to the saudis i think i would say the saudis got a very clear message that make a they would not fight on behalf of them and they were not actually and said a confrontation with iran on behalf of them i think that was these and i would say pushed so the im a decent man to do you know to to play with the oil price and to do this to pressure the american the station more and more maybe. Assuming that they would be changing on you know in american politics i think they miss adults as you age joel in maryland is it maybe country into it if because it seems to me that whats happened is that donald trump because of the Oil Price Situation has been put on to the same page as a sizable lobby of serving sentences and congressmen and women in the United States and you know there was this report out of middle east i dont know if it was true or not where m. B. s the crown prince was so shocked when he got the phone call that he sent his aides to the room and he had to absorb the new some self so where does this leave the relationship that triangular relationship between donald trump mohammed bin solomon and jared cushion a cause those 2 men in their early thirtys theres an axis of getting on with each other we think yeah and thats lurking behind the scenes in terms of assessments here in washington about whats really driving the truck the ministry sions policy toward saudi arabia because they dont have the support of the body politic of the congress and they really dont have a rationale for many of the decisions regarding saudi arabia and the murder for example of market where its still under resolved from American Perspective and a President Trump seem to want to kind of bury that and so hes taking continual political risks President Trump has for 100 been some months and its just not gaining him many fans here in washington but you want to also know that its very important for what the current ministrations do its not you miss read by ron either this is not any move to somehow abandoned american concerns about iran in the region as well and just last week we saw nearly 400 members of the house of representatives from both parties sign on to a letter calling for an arms embargo continue rage continuation of the arms embargo against iran so there are real concerns across the spectrum but when it comes to america. Saudi relations i do think that the pandemic is now creating of whats your point for america in the middle east we are not going to be looking the same at the region Going Forward as we were in the past years and decades priorities are going to have made hard choices are going to have to be made resource allocation is going to be very difficult with all that weve now gone from the economic collapse your home so the saudis may have pushed in a bridge too far and burned your best friend in washington mohammed in tehran coming back to you if i may is there one aspect of this that might actually play to saudi arabias advantage and buy some time until it rebuilds the relationship because clearly washington and riyadh will probably try to rebuild that relationship and its this critics slash analysts of the Iranian Regime say the revolutionary guard likes to act with autonomy it likes to act fast but theres a slightly abrasive relationship with the Foreign Ministry in tehran because the line from the Foreign Ministry when it comes to the relationship with saudi arabia is no slowed down think about what were going to do next and wait and see where we go naturally now 1st of all i dont consider iran to be a regime a regime implies some sort of illegitimacy and instability the iranians have a constitution and the revolutionary guards the armed forces and the foreign minister and foreign minister of iraq within the framework of the constitution the supremes National Security council makes the final decisions on all of these issues so there is no independent actor here involved i think though the key problem is that saudi arabia is being run by a person who has been destroying the country mohammed and someone from the beginning when he kidnapped and beat that then Prime Minister of lebanon siege on contact. The murder of jemaah chee inside their own consulate and of course the list goes on and of course what they have now done with the oil market this has damaged saudi arabia both politically but now economically and ironically the only country in this region let hasnt been hurt by the koran a virus except for because of except for the direct impact of the virus itself is iran iran hasnt been hurt because iran has been prevented by truck ironically from exploiting the oil and because of the sanctions iran has not had a very powerful tourist industry or the Airline Industry it hasnt been able to trade easily so its been increasingly producing at home being independent of the International Market and the international finances and Financial Centers and Financial Sector of society of the International Order so iran has been largely business as usual except for the problem with the virus itself which everyone is dealing with on the other hand irans adversaries countries like saudi review have been badly damaged by the United States its an economic catastrophe and therefore relatively speaking irans position in the region is and its allies by extension is much greater than before ok mohammed thank you for that jill you want to come in that yeah i think thats completely inaccurate and dangerous to say that iran has not been impacted by the coronavirus iran has over a 100000 cases according to the world. Helped organise thousands died many iranian americans met many many many iranian americans here are very deeply concerned about their family members in iran and iran has also been seen as the source of the virus in parts of europe so we need to have that debate im not im not going im not going to debate whether or not iran. Regional perspective right now as a result of the saudi move has gained a bit of an advantage but coronavirus not something we should be playing politics with lets go to mexico it was windy here in doha will the relationship come back not given whatever washington does not given whatever the crown prince in riyadh does but given what the oil price might do i. E. When that stabilizes the relationship might improve if only because since hes been in Office Donald trump has only issued 6 vetoes in his political history in the white house for all of them what to safeguard the relationship with riyadh its that strong of a relationship i think peter. Were in. A major shift in many come but i think you know being democrats again at the white house and that that may be actually the influence future political decision from now toward november and so many have impact on the nation but the damage in the nation took place in the last 24 months absolutely strong and i think the saudis has to do a lot to buy that damage and its fortunate that you know economically there are collapsing i mean duport the press conference of the minister of finance was absolutely. Painful to the saudis and the what would they need to do i. I think this will affect the Foreign Policy of so these and their you know any or all they will play in the future that egypt but the major thing when it comes to washington riyadh we may in some change we may witness some changes but this will be very very very slow and it will need a lot of efforts from both sides ok to rely basically on pushing their. Dissent man sort of nations in particular ok mohammed very briefly because were heading towards the end of the show do you get the sense where you are into iran that as far as the governments are concerned there is an appetite or not for what would be perceived in washington as more threatening behavior towards their friends in saudi arabia well 1st of all id like to point out to that the United States has been using the virus as a weapon against the iranians through the sanctions so and despite that the situation in the United States has catastrophic and the situation in iran is much better and with regards to the spreading of the virus iran has far fewer flights whether to china or to europe and the chinese the europeans or the americans i think its quite clear that that accusation is not true and i think that when you run a saying is that the United States has to recognize that his policy in this region is destructive it has helped the saudis destroy yemen it has allowed this at the saudis to do this it has allowed the spread of extremism across the region whether in syria or iraq afghanistan and elsewhere and the United States has to rethink its policy the region has changed and many of these peoples are resisting the saudis and the americans and the americans can blame iran all they want but the fact that they cannot suppress the people of yemen and the faster fact that they cannot impose their will in iraq and running elsewhere shows that the United States is a declining force rather to be speaking and it should start. So respect ok the players didnt dominate ok lets put the last word to joel rubin in maryland joe i mean the war in yemen little or nothing over the past 5 years of an endless conflict that no one site is winning no comment really or no desire for an apparent movement or change of direction out of the Trump White House the death of Jamal Khashoggi that was incredibly awkward for the trumpet ministration he went to such lengths to basically say it wasnt mohammed bin solomon who either orchestrated all greenlit or indulged in some strategic ignorance when it came to the death of the Washington Post columnist could the oil price or the oil price going through the floor be the last straw in the relationship between this is ministration in the oval office in the white house and what who runs riyadh i certainly hope so in terms of making the this white house wake up i agree with the assessment here that our policy right now in the middle east running yemen regarding these kinds of. With the fall of the conspiracy a fair policy towards iran which is not advancing our goals these need to be right sized and weve been following saudis lead and certain way to go thanks its well over the years weve been following so obviously without question the white house but not through congress and i think thats required only seeing an end point here with different votes bipartisan pressure recognition now in the actual voting constituency of donald trump that there is a problem here my hope is that this will be a wake up call that the ministration will straighten out our policy and get us back into a position where we can really sirte our goals rather than the problem in saudis we incent disastrous outcomes that is the hope of course but in the Election Year in the midst of a pandemic its going to be hard to see the whole ships year but certainly this this narrow recent episode of the patriots does indicate. Should be an indicator the mob events on monday theres not much time left for him to change the way saudi arabia in us in terms of how we activate our our interests in the region gentlemen we must leave it there thank you so much thank you to i guess they were joel rubin mushrooms where he and Mohammad Marandi and thank you too for your company you can see the program again any time on the website l 20 dot com and for further discussion to check out our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at age 8 inside story or you can tweet me im peter be the one for me peter dolby and the team here in doha thanks for watching all season. 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