Saw that document for the story we listen dr to world war saying youll be in to go build you need to stage a view but we will not be with you we meet with global news makers the stories that matter on the edges era. Where resuming warfare those are the words of colombias largest army who after a month long ceasefire the National Liberation army says the government isnt willing to talk so what does that mean for peace in colombia this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program. Were talking colombia today the National Liberation army better known as the e l n says its resuming its 5 decades long armed activity after declaring a ceasefire exactly one month ago the countrys Largest Rebel Group says it agreed to a truce to alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic and as a gesture of peace more than 6500 people have tested positive for the virus there and nearly 300 have died but the rebels are now accusing the government of showing little or no enthusiasm for revamping the long stalled peace talks or for combating the virus the government has condemned the decision to resume its attacks colombias high commissioner for peace against the bio says the government demands from the yelena permanent cease fire and the immediate handing over of all abductees all minors who have been forcibly recruited and an immediate halt to the installation of antipersonnel mines. The l. N. Is the largest remaining Guerilla Group to wage war against the colombian government but how did things get here lets rule want the colombian conflict began as a rural uprising 56 years ago the fark became the leading rebel group to oppose the government declaring its intention to install a communist regime in 2016 the fark signed a Peace Agreement in the sense of all that into a Political Party peace negotiations with the e l n began the following year 1st in the ecuadorian capital quito and later in havana but colombias president yvonne to cave into the talks last year after a bomb attack on a Police Academy in bogota that killed 23 people the violence has killed more than 220000 colombians and displaced millions of others. All right lets introduce our panel in bogota capital of colombia said hill guzman director at colombia risk analysis a political consultancy in manchester Collin Harding editor at latin form a consultancy and Information Service and also in bogota seppo a director at said iraq a conflict Analysis ResearchCenter Welcome to you all d sit here let me start with you is there any chance this cease fire can be renewed or is it more likely now that the e l in will will dig in and it will not feel pressure to negotiate going forward. Mohamed is a pleasure to be here with you and commentating on this issue i think the l. N. House already manifested that it will not negotiate in good faith with this government and although its unilateral action of a ceasefire was a positive you seen by the rest of the world now is trying to extricate a better negotiating position with the government so this all makes it more likely that they will then will begin in the short term armed actions to pressure the government into a different negotiating position a call in the at the l. And beyond colombia also has a powerful presence in venezuela so im wondering how much does that contribute now to the Group Feeling like its in a rather strong position. Thing about probably is the case i mean that they have astonished a very cozy relationship with the moderate government in venezuela have a big presence on the border between the 2 countries. But also in other parts all of that this year as well its actually in the gold mining area they are now kobes and their result and all manner of. Activities and in venezuela d illegal gold mining and drugs to cool especially as well as narrow. As our transit point for drugs from south america to the rest of the world. Says i may enjoy the protection of the miter or a government which sees them as a sort of Strategic Asset if the United States is threatening venezuela. Well if i stop and trip like that the l. M. As a sort of buffer between them as i was here youve got about a Majority Court me to assess so far as the i was there and you have abundant resources coming from their activities in venezuela and i dont think they feel under particular pressure that they would like. In negotiations with the governments and the not under any any any seeming to that they need to move quickly because they see whats happening to her and the fox the other Guerrilla Groups that its reached an agreement as the government of the number of people has either come back to take your arms away or theyve been killed so i think be happy really it feels fairly comfortable. U. N. Secretary general antonio terrace had called in march for an end to all Armed Conflict around the world and the l n a had responded to the call by announcing its ceasefire the un was quite happy about that but the terrorist was ignored by the Colombian Military why is that. Well you see there is no. Exchange of seizures between the yellin and the government. What occurred nevertheless is that this is something that i reckon we need to recognize here in colombia and internationally need to be recognized the war meant and has not been dosed though these way they cannot devastate forces stop any type of of pensive action at that or operational activities from the military against the euro and we in fact. Plead frozen conflict for the past 345 days with the leg that is very good news but i have to say this is not a negotiated agreement its simplified that the colombian estate forces decided choose to redirect their resources to their patient of the day meek and also to tackle other Security Issues that we have here in colombia most of their related organized crime groups then in fact the government did comply with the request of the un but without making any public announcement or former pronouncement said hill while this ceasefire was in effect how much were levels of violence actually reduced. It depends where where youre looking at because while in some of the conflict areas of violence between the military and the young men was reduced criminal armed organizations continued to improve in different territories throughout go throughout to cut the book through of different parts of the. Agile quote theres been mass displacement theres been a sauce in asian of social leaders so this is not by any means a triumph or or a return to peace it is a complication of the Current Situation on the ground in many places where the thirtys tied up in other matters call and the end of the ceasefire comes just weeks before Health Authorities in colombia project that the pandemic is really going to put the countrys Fragile Health System to the test so how much will the resumption of the attacks further diminish the governments capability to respond to the pandemic. It cant help can assume that the pad as it has used more than 6000 cases in colombia d getting on for 300 deaths reported so far. The government is at the yellow and accuse the government im not such a going at it very much to alleviate the effects of the undemocratic and not sure thats absolutely true they are trying their best to take measures to to to deal with this. But that they really dont want it to return to scale military actions against they are yellow and of course it was inevitable that hasnt been any trash is a troll since the middle of march before they they had a self. Cease fire by b. L. M. Start it. Went really taking actions vote against against the atlanta based in the weeks before. The ceasefire and of course that they are trying to. Cause the resources to change the constraints on getting a stable undamaged that they that having both syria with the same time can use them they would rather avoid jorge i saw you nodding along to a lot of what colleen was saying so i wanted to give you the opportunity to jump in but i actually have to say that we never seen him in the history of the human which you know ranges almost for 60 years. And more than 40 days of complete absence of activity and what were seeing now are one we saw on t. V. Yesterday evening was the longest period of illegality in that conflict between the state forces and the ear and that is a very positive news its him a stranger and for an organization that has been called by the rate it would have a very large ri of brand out on a me for each one of their own needs we let me so. It was a remarkable display of unity and calm. By the Central Command of that organization of that control over their units that is very possibly nevertheless that it was a risk in human gharyan and security terms but only temporarily at what we are seen now its a return on a very high degrees both in humanity darrent there in security good terms and especially in terrorist terms their risk of terrorism of korban terrorism has risen since yesterday and although its a small i will not be scart that the un will make some sort of terrorism straight like they beat last january here what were we to major it there is the fact that left 22 policemen and student killed said hill i want to focus for a moment on some of the more vulnerable communities in colombia refugees those that have been displaced internally because of conflict what are the implications of the kind of toll that covert 1000 could take on those communities especially in light of the fact that the ceasefire hasnt well absolutely i think i think called it 90 targets vulnerable communities without access to Health Services that most this is namely not just venezuelan nationals here in colombia but also a lot of colombians you know rule areas and now that the virus has spread throughout the country its going to be very difficult for authorities to be able to cope with the demand for medical services ventilators intensive care units in rural areas even demand the cities like but what about as you got me is already stressed i can only imagine how its going to be but i wanted to address something that or you were saying on the terrorist attacks. I buy that yeldon because i think the likelihood of an attack is more likely but it is important to remind that the l. N. In many of its actions you start getting Critical Infrastructure as well and Public Authority and Public Security forces not generally the public it self or civilians but it targets. State and Critical Infrastructure assets collen how much control do armed groups like the l. N. Have over different populations in various parts of columbia. Well the present in about 90 minutes which of the provinces of colombia. Massignac under 908. 00 municipal districts where b. L. M. Has a presence there particularly strong and the choco is the jungle era quite a funny one youre from chair in the cow corralling and also in the cast timber area of the bite from st louis that was venezuela but that there are present in other parts of the country as well and where they have their armed fighters and there are about 2 and a half 1000 of them. They clearly do have ready for a considerable control that will be the the lives of the local population. And it cost of it that the government has not really been challenging this in many costs that it could be one of the triplets the internal complaints in cologne theres the government is not really trying to large parts of the country in the area and have moved into areas particularly capital other areas as well where. The fuck was present at the much war was a much bigger the Guerrilla Group which has the sound integrate d the government a Peace Agreement to lay down their arms but the hand has moved in both to the areas controlled by the previously controlled by the father also into the activities that. Previously controlled and mosul a Drug Trafficking and mass mockery across the frontier into i dont know from if you will smuggling across the frontier is particularly important so yes that they did that you have that right considerable influence there and in large parts of the country. If i could ask you for a moment specifically about how much corruption and mismanagement has hampered the reaction of the government to combat covert 19 well thats a difficult question i would say that. The days of corruption that we have seen throughout our research are investigators very. Different. Support and soffits and other. Institutions to do with corruption at the local administration levels i would say that we have not seen any type of Corruption Case at the National Administration vs been a decentralized government. In my view there has been a remarkable display of efficiency you need to be on board the nation despite differences between the local and the National Authorities it has been a remarkable whiting or it and display of actions to tackle the. A but may i add something to your private question mohammad yes please go ahead. Very briefly i will add to what collins set in terms of the regions where they yell and its operating also to other 3 years apart from got the im to call. Your not in your on but there is a point at which is really important they hilang do not have control in those areas in all those areas ah plus alcohol was for getting the 6 done in these 6 areas they delays in all of them disputing the sources of grains from narcotrafficking from its origin not being illegal logging gold mining illegal gold mining that theyre disputing that we organized criminal groups in those areas they dont have a settled precedence and that is what makes a yell and so. Damaging for the communities and so threatening in terms of. Because healing carries with it these type of violent activities which are very negative for the communities and in terms of a humanitarian impact those communities which are more vulnerable to the presence violent presence of the un our indigenous communities which happen to be in 4 of those 6 areas said hello i also saw you nodding a lot the last few moments and you want to add to what jorge was saying. No i think it has absolutely right i think looking at. The lens also now that the migration flow is turning a little bit from olympia from venezuela to colombia now venezuelans are returning to to their country they had then and many of these are groups that horton reference fight over the control of some of these informal crossings and this is especially a place where the brits are vulnerable to harassment to abuse dr drew as oliver. Frequently mentioned how women especially vulnerable to to Sexual Harassment and rape in this crossing so i think its important to mention that as well colleen there are political analysts who have said that in colombia there are 3 separate pandemics going on theres coronavirus theres hunger and theres corruption and theyve said that the Current Crisis is really pointing out just how inequitable things are there would you agree with that assessment well yes and theres actually no doubt the climate will suffer as we best and across a certain cost the country are are quite prosperous social groups prosperous to clean the big cities but also theres this great deal of to take us a new group of areas so that they have an awful tenderness and also in addition to the presence of of literally millions of refugees the reasons yes some of them as it just means that not to be tenants in their own country but there is still plenty of that in and out and. On that they have to be accommodated just well so to have that as the current virus on that make as well as last year because that to greatly increases the burden only on the government jorge let me ask you the government has started saying in the last month that they were going to be delivering subsidies to millions of impoverished families millions of a vulnerable populations has that help actually started arriving to these families and these populations. Yes i mean over the past 3 weeks there has been noted that the leary of at least 4 different packages started to alter people to families with children and people died to belong to the Informal Sector and have lost any ways of earning an income they have reach at least 10 percent of the population you know what i refereed before to a remarkable display of fish in sea for rather all are an inefficient and ineffective state theyve been able to mount this program as well as in other latin american countries like they have been able to address these lack of funds the problem in my view is the sustainability of these programs i reckon the state coffers wont be able to afford more than 2 months of this type of subsidies to the poor in colombia so hey i see you nodding as well so i want to ask you you agree with that that its going to be sustaining these programs that was going to be the major challenge. Yes absolutely that and also reaching the workers that are outside the social safety net of the state because libya has more than 3000000 families that are currently enrolled in the conditional cuts transfers programs that the government finances every month and those are the 1st ones of the government has tried to reach with this you get as a study of your program but then theres also the network of more than 10000000 people who dedicate themselves to informal work reaching then has proven to be much more difficult than then some would argue that although the government has displayed a remarkable. And unity in doing so this is the most ambitious conditional cautious for program or unconditional customs for program the government has ever done there still have been some technical glitches which observers have pointed out with some measure of reason that they mistrust the government financing some of these some of these individuals and how the government that counts for the resources that its spent so i dont think its necessarily be no flaw in this exercise but i do think that the issues of corruption are going to become much more heavily scrutinized by the Public Opinion in general col and i know weve touched on this a bit in previous answers but i just want to dig in a little bit more on what any kind of potential negotiation might look like i mean what kind of concessions with the l. N. Like to see from the government. Well via land this is in the case of a separate is not. Want the political status recognise they want full of shit with which you recognise that position and i dont think that they feel this is very likely to happen and this is because theyre against a president. Who are. It was a really busy event and them he was rather close to maybe the shop to go she ations hes he thinks the terms that were reached were too lenient to say reduced me to on the guerrillas and now although he did continue. Talks as weve heard they were cut off after the car bomb at the state Police Cadet College student Barbara Starr in january last year. But i think the president do care really would just individual deals with. It to encourage guerilla fighters to lay down their arms under special terms and i dont think theres much chance that but happenings that there have been several 1011. 00 fighters over the years who have laid down their arms and returned to legal activities but i think at present its question lightly and the guerrillas regard what theyve done as a humanitarian gesture and they want to put that peace proposals back on the table but i dont think theyre going to go very far are we have run out of time so we are going to have to leave the discussion there thanks so much to all our guests on call in harding and Jorge Restrepo and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website under 0 dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a. J. Inside story for me im a gentleman and the whole team here by for now. 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