As economic pain starts to bite worldwide here to the coronavirus pandemic many countries are now beginning to ease lock downs and reopen their economies but what are the risks of a blitz soften the Financial Impact of the pandemic this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program im Adrian Finnegan its been described as the great lock down by the International Monetary fund and it could have created the worst recession in nearly a century both rich and poor countries are affected by measures taken to control the coronavirus pandemic and governments are under pressure to stabilize markets and prevent job losses that are weighing Public Safety against restarting their economies although many countries are reopening stores and schools there are differences over where and when businesses can resume operations for many of the prospects that the world may be returning to normal is a relief but Health Experts say that relaxing too much too soon could trigger a 2nd wave of infections heres a look at how countries are beginning to roll back their lockdown measures germany and norway are among countries in europe lifting some restrictions on shops and nurseries but others like france are holding off governors in the us are discussing plans to lift some constraints but some americans have taken to the streets demanding that they be allowed to reopen businesses South Koreans are returning to work and shopping malls and some restaurants are now begin. Who opened but other Asian Countries that didnt impose strict restrictions from the stoplight singapore and now tightening up iran has allowed some shops factories and warehouses to reopen its also lifted a ban on travel between cities but elsewhere in the middle east restrictions remain tight. Lets bring in our guests for todays discussion from washington d. C. Were joined by jeremy can indic a senior policy fellow at the center for Global Development from bond better spot managing director and head of research at the German Economic Institute and from ottawa diane cheery ak and economist and city a fellow in the Global Economy program at the center for International Governance innovation gentlemen welcome to all of you jeremy lets start with you how do nations come out of lockdown is there a one size fits all formula or does it need a specific approach do tailored to each individual country and economy well i think every country needs to adapt some common principles to its own setting and figure out how it can implement those but you know what were seeing is a few Common Threads you need widespread testing so that anyone who has who is a suspect case can access testing the need you need large scale Contact Tracing and quarantine that you know that large scale Contact Tracing it allows you to identify the people who have been exposed in a very specific way so that you can quarantine only them instead of courtin your whole economy and then its very very important as well to scale up hospital readiness so that if there are future surges the Hospital System does not become overwhelmed but as is germany coming out of lockdown at the right time has it i mean its dealt with the pandemic very well but does it risk a 2nd wave of infections by lifting restrictions to serve too soon. My remote already accepting the lockdown restart easing the locked on very very very small steps 1st subs to open b. If some 1st class is going back to school those are going to do their final exams soon but thats not not a very quick exits and what our government is paying attention on is exactly trying on the one hand side to improve capacities to test and trace and then then to to bring people into isolation if necessary and on the other hand side to keep medicare capacities high but so far as but its a far from over rent and thats a good thats good news dan when is the right time to come out of lockdown obviously its prudent and sensible to have a plan in place but when is the right time to put that plan into action at what point in the curve. Well definitely you have to have the curve flattened if you try and open up the economy before the population is confidence that it probably wont work anyways and that does risk then the theres the reemergence of new clusters and new concerns. Were looking at were just talking about how to do it but i think were looking for a protocol that will allow the factories to get reopened the looking to the models that have been developed were already hearing it in germany about how to practice social distancing within a factory setting the wearing a mask and so forth and obviously because this bug is. Very different impacts for the elderly versus for other people you need a protocol that will still protect your most vulnerable population while you get the economy reopened were talking about this now were still not doing it jeremy weve talked before and i was here about the fact that you had a hand in writing the obama era playbook own on handling a pandemic did that playbook contain advice on post penned that pandemic planning. That playbook is mostly focused on being ready for 2 the pen demick when it arrived. It didnt focus as much on exit ing from a scenario like this it was it was really focused on avoiding a scenario like this boy in this kind of large scale does need to have a large scale sustained shutdown of the economy and of human mobility because it it kind of laid out advice and guidance on how to how to avert this scale of cases that weve now seen in this country i want to just pick up on one other point that the last commenter made which is the importance of all noble populations i think that has been a huge lesson frankly a predictable lesson here in the United States that much of the much of the mortality many of the worst outcomes weve seen have been in Long Term Care facilities and elder homes weve seen that in a number of Different Countries now but not just here i think even in singapore a different kind of marginalized population there migrant population which has been left out. And more peripheral to the mainstream thrust of their Public Health effort thats now where theyre way discussed as a cases are so its very important to take a holistic view of everyone whos living in your society in order to in order to be ready to be an accident that has to extend his is trust in the authorities key to lifting lockdown restrictions as well have been how how much faith the people there are germany have in the government and its handling of the pandemic. What i think so far faith is good that the government did the right steps in order to bring the bring the pen demick of the epidemic down but we start so we see the starting point of a discussion whether these restrictions are necessary or not and. S. S. Number of active cases is going down as the number of us. Medical professionals tell us that are relevant for. 2 to assess the situations are Getting Better people are getting more and more. Well anxious to to go back on in the street and to do they go back to their daily life their normal life more or less and in some parts i think its easier than others i mean bringing people back to the top floors for example thats a question of safe and. Health and safety in the factories and that can be organized but for example commuting public transport that that starts to be a much more complicated as there are a lot of people close to each other and more possibilities for infection and then scoots cannot guns even more problematic but on the other hand side very important for families to be able to to get to get to work again to have people to have their children back back at school and then finally as it has been mentioned rightfully this specific problem off. Of risk risk part of the of the population elderly homes. In germany yes but one of them caught sorceress off. Severe cases and sent mortality rates down what supports your view on that had a couple months balland balance the need to get that economy moving again with the potential danger to the public in his 1st opening schools kindergartens and low risk shops and business is the way to go. Well id say that you need to have a protocol call it of how to do this for example. Opening schools seems to be one of the areas where there is the least risk overall to the population but nonetheless if these students are coming back into the homes and interacting with elderly parents or grandparents you still have that issue so the question is how you do it do people go back to school but now with face masks do we go back to school you have fever testing or other kinds of tests at the at the door before theyre allowed into the school those kinds of things ultimately i think the population will need to have some confidence from governments that that we do have the situation under control we have now becoming a guess the dimia logical model the resume with the 1000000 with the the models and we see you know people like Angela Merkel case that could chancellor merkel explaining the basic rate the direction number to the population i think were going to want to see our experts telling us that they we have the situation the control that they had that the models are now telling us that it is safe to go back in the water as it were jeremy on the issue of having confidence in governments handling of the situation what do you make of the protests that weve seen in recent days and some u. S. States calling for these shelter in place restrictions in the u. S. To be to be lifted. Well you know i think you have to start by saying thats a represents a pretty small minority the population the polling very consistently shows that the public at large with republican and Democrat Supporters are supportive of the shelter in place restrictions and they recognize that theyre necessary for safety and there is a very vocal minority and one that unfortunately is being actively stoked by the president and by fox news that has been showing up and protesting but i dont think thats thats representative of a groundswell throughout the country it is really unfortunate and frankly its dangerous because of course the these protests are practicing the opposite of social distancing which is a lot of people many of them high risk clustering together no masks close in together you know their their their their their poor politics but theyre also very poor Public Health or at the president s apparent support for these protests. Its irresponsible is an agenda that is not an example of Good Governance and how can people who dont trust then the kind of trust in the thirtys that is required to open up economies when you have the president acting in this way even though State Government has. Some of them being pretty exemplary. Yeah i think you know what the president s basically doing here is refusing to sate responsibility to do the right thing shifting that responsibility onto the governors and then criticizing them for doing that and blessing the people who are criticizing them for doing you know weed or ship would be to say to stand up for them and say theyre doing the right thing frankly what theyre doing is consistent with the policy that has administration has laid out with with their own guidance on the 30 day closure of the of of the country so you know what the governors are doing is in line with what the president s own administration has said and many of these people are his supporters there were they are waving trunk flags at these at these protests so you know if the president were to show some leadership and say to these people this is the wrong thing please stay home for your and your and your neighbors safety i suspect they would listen hes doing the opposite jeremy i mean you said that these these protesters are are in the minority but as far as testing. Contact tracing and continued social distancing are concerned with i think everyones agreed that that these are going to be with us for quite some time how those measures going to play with this this kind of people and how will they d be effective if you have a certain chunk of the population is just not going to go along with them. Well i think it remains to be seen how much resistance there will really be to some of these measures i think the more that you know the more that there are voices that are stoking mistrust and stoking fear about them i think the worse the Public Health outcomes will be. This is where we need all sides unified in showing leadership rather than the president shirking the leadership role that he has and i think in you know in past crises this is really not been a partisan thing we have seen president obama take on leadership in serious crises we saw president bush and the other president bush show it or ship in these kinds of crises you know its not normally a partisan thing and the president is choosing to politicize it i think ultimately thats going to harm his own followers most of all because those who dont trust the president are going to be inclined to listen to their governors and listen to the medical professionals those who do trust the president and do trust fox news who are putting themselves at the greatest risk. Of bettas war will the post pandemic Global Economy look like how deep long will the recession be will Global Growth will business ever get back to what it was before. Thats a good question and no one really knows actually but i think we must face the fact that the economy of the future will look different to the one we knew until a couple of weeks ago and what we see is extremely big and large sense of the value chains invented networks that there are globally we see for example in the european Automobile Industry which has been closed down a couple of rigs ago now the 1st plants reopened this week but it takes some time to have that organized that all the the supply our steel wanted to supply us back and back on track and back in business and so that that would take weeks and weeks and probably months with. Lower g. D. P. And up production and then we have had last year for example in the global scale what can happen for example is that we receive a really severe crisis in many emerging economies where the medical situation might be much worse at least that medical infrastructure is set much less equipped to a crisis like this compared to to europe and north america for example and if these. Emerging economies dont grow anymore that also is going to have effects on the advanced economies of course so what we probably see is lower lower growth rates and probably nothing like what we would have probably would not be back on track this year of course and probably not next year so maybe 2022 again on oats old growth rates but what we need i would like to come back to to the crest of trust in confidence i think its a very fine line for policy make us on the one side to to introduce restrictions. When necessary and that people that follow them but on the other hand side making. That restrictions lifted when theyre not necessary anymore and i think both confidence on the one sides confidence that we will come back to a more or less our normal life and confidence that there will be no 2nd wave or if another set of restrictions are locked down in autumn this year both is necessary for companies to invest is this if necessary for consumers to to to buy a car or do something at their home or whatever intends to to. To restart the economy so thats really crucial to to do what is necessary but that but not to be too restrictive and not to take. The people to. The positive outlook dan what role do organizations like the i have the world bank have to play in a post pandemic recovery. Well theyre going to have certainly a major role to play in providing Financial Support for the emerging markets which are facing a debt crisis this isnt an extraordinarily unusual situation that we have in that usually we have different parts of the world have different problems this one is were having the same problem but a different time its rolling around the world and the recovery is dependent upon what happens elsewhere so canada for example you can always forecast a comedian economy based on what the u. S. Economy is doing if the u. S. Economy is unable to get its a sup back on its feet our out quickly just dependent upon that china for example after having a very severe drop in g. D. P. In the 1st quarter and now was facing the fact that there isnt any International Demand slowing it down in the us in the middle of this year so and also we need to have this trust element at the International Level if we dont trust other countries to be containing the pandemic that International Travel d will not be able to resume. And a so d this this issue also comes out in terms of the what were facing a paradox of prudence if if consumers dont have confidence that this economy is going to take hold they will be all saving for the rainy day and of course if everyones safe for the rainy day at the same time then we guarantee that that rainy day will come so the this is a major challenge of getting confidence back to the consumer its also a major challenge international a comedy on this on having cooperation and of course thats exactly where the plate down is happening were not seeing that kind of cooperation germy one of the dangers for economies as they begin to open up again to what extent will the week both in terms of countries and businesses and communities be trampled on by by the strong and the rich will vulture capitalism make a killing. Well i think its hard to predict exactly what shape this this is going to take i think what we what we can presume what were seeing already is its that is that its that the economically marginalized who are bearing bearing the worst of this so far. You know i suspect that the richer economies will wrote really will rebound more quickly the poor weak economies are going to really struggle and theyre going to need a lot of help from International Students like the i. M. F. And the world bank you know you think of the amount the amount of money the u. S. Government is pouring in to prop up the u. S. Economy 2. 00 trillion dollars a few weeks ago theyre talking about now another half a trillion dollars for Small Businesses thats being debated in congress right now you know thats a massive amount of money for 1. 00 country if you begin thinking about what that looks like cross the whole worlds economy begin to get a sense of you know the size of the effort that will be required and i think to avoid the kind of predatory economic cracks its going to be very very important both to have some International Solidarity be quick between countries around that and to have the International Financial institutions step up but as i need a brief answer from you if you can please under a minute if germany is hurting its in no place to help the rest of europe is it but germanys it is a view to have to risk if youre a Public Finance its a good safe. So we and some other countries have to have to also pay our part in order to keep keep europe running and keep those countries running that so much growth whod like to tell us big danny it could be argued that the Great Depression fueled naziism the 2008 financial crisis feel populism what happens after the pandemic and recession of 2020 you nervous or optimistic is the world going to be a better or worse place for the coronavirus both economically and politically. Well thats a really good question theres a lot of big cheer thank yours out there drafting a scenarios i say that 1st of all what were seeing is a a pandemic shock layered on a trade war shock which in turn is also layered on a Digital Transformation shock and the coat crisis i think is accelerating a lot of things that we would have been expecting to see with the Digital Transformation in terms of the way business functions business meetings International Travel so forth so the world is being reshaped dramatically and on top of that you have the United States which had structured the Global Institutional framework at Bretton Woods in San Francisco back in 1940 s. Its pulling the rug out from that institutional order and the europeans are struggling to find new ways to to keep the. Going on with this dispute resolution mechanism and other ways to keep some kind of International Structure going but i think well see a new world order that can use that word emerging from this and it will be driven heavily by technology it will be driven heavily by the kinds of risks that this is showing up for example the emergence of export restrictions 1st on medicines and medical gear and now laterally on even food and you have japan for example subsidizing of the petri dish of its supply chains so this is reorganizing the world in a way which is less cooperative than know us before and on top of that the the cold warriors have seized on the covert crisis to intensify the the the cold war with china so that the the world is not shaping up to it to come out of this in a very. Strong coordinator response is shaping up to be coming out a bit fractured indeed in europe weve even seen within the Single Market orders being shut you see lineups of tractor trailers at the old air enroll me and border as if this was the also good times so a lot of concerns id say and it will take. A lot of new thinking and a lot of developments on the grounds that you know what this will look like just about the we must end our discussion many thanks indeed for being with us i really appreciate it jeremy could indyk over to spot and sure iraq and thank you for watching dont forget you can see the program again at any time just by going to the website at aljazeera dot com for further discussion join us at our Facebook Page youll find that at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter our handle at a. J. Inside story from be adrian for the good of the whole team here and oh thanks for watching ill see you again lie to them. 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