Saw. The 1st story we listen to after the war saying youll go. With. The stories that. Hello im Darren Jordan this is counting the cost on aljazeera look at the world of business and economics this week its been a little more than a decade since the financial crisis will the pandemic push the banking and financial industry into another meltdown more jobs are lost than joining the entire Global Financial crisis and millions more on the line as 2000000000 people go into lockdown. As rich nations pick up last paychecks those people on the margins of society that have no safety net from former workers in developing countries to migrants in rich nations who is looking out for them. Well from a Health Emergency to an Economic Disaster as the world grapples with the coronavirus demick unresolved old wounds may trigger another financial meltdown as rich nations spend trillions trying to keep businesses afloat theyre relying on banks to maintain the flow of cash to industries and offering learned repayment holidays to consumers well in europe where banks have yet to recover from the 2008 north Atlantic Financial crisis despite a trillion euros from governments to prop up businesses there there are fears bad loans will topple some banks and Financial Institutions in the United States president Trumps Administration has been rolling back safeguards to prevent another crisis relaxing rules on the. Much money banks should have on hand to cover losses weakening stress tests allowing more proprietary trade remember when banks would bet against their own clients well for more than a decade banks stopped using their own money to bet on markets but they had lent money to hedge funds to do just that well bloomberg calculated president trumps tax cuts that saved americas top 6. 00 banks 32000000000. 00 at the same time these banks cut jobs they slashed borrowing and ramped up payments to their shareholders the financial crisis has cost u. S. Taxpayers an estimated 23. 00 trillion dollars thats about 70000. 00 per america and in europe despite politicians saying taxpayers would no longer be on the hook for bailouts theyre still happening in December Germanys 4000000000. 00 rescue of nor Deutsche Bank 0 centrally was approved by the European Commission and thats where were going to start this week the German Government is abandoning its policy of running a balanced budget it plans to borrow a 156000000000 euros to protect business and industry from berlin out of there as dominic cain reports. Its a scene thats being repeated around the world patients struggle for life medics struggle for resources and governments face growing demands for cash in berlin the answer appears to be borrowing lots of it fully 156000000000 euro ministers say they could do nothing else this is us miners. In my view it cynical if some people now start discussions their Health Issues should come 2nd and the Economic Issues take priority for the top priority right now is to limit the rapid spread of the pandemic to ensure that our house system is well prepared. But just as the virus attacks the population so too doesnt the economy felix plessy operates a cinema in bomb he worries coronavirus could kill his business from asia its going to talk about its does it what so not for me as a cinema operator the situation is very better since big march we are no longer allowed to have visitors the fixed costs continue we do not have any possibility to generate an income this means that there is a loss every single day. Felix can access direct government money as part of the new package announced but he wonders is it enough. The moment under both the state aid currently on offer is a step in the right direction weve already tried accessing it however there are a lot of server crashes because everyone is visiting the same internet site of the relevant authorities at the same time to put this new borrowing into perspective its worth remembering that for the past 6 years successive German Governments have insisted on balancing the budget praising the virtues of the socalled shorts and black 0 effectively putting money aside for a rainy day which is why economists say at least in the short term this borrowing round is different what it was always meant as a as as having you know a balanced budget in normal times to make sure that in a serious crisis germany has the room to spend so if youre wondering whether you know this has her soft and those who are insisting on fiscal austerity in the shorts and no thats not the case that extra strength and emboldened them to say the reason why we can spend so much to save our economy in this difficult time is because we saved in good times so the shots and it was not valid and its just temporarily on hold. Another aspect of the government policy is to allow firms to move to whats called courts are bite short working which Means Companies can use federal money to help pay their wage bills in the short so that they dont necessarily go to the wall in the long term. And then there are the companies who depend on Seasonal Workers such as in the Food Industry germany is about to enter asparagus season and normally hundreds of thousands of workers from Eastern Europe would be crossing borders for the harvest now many cannot and firms like Hubert Herndon in bavaria are feeling the pain in the. One to prove today we have seen some 20 to 25. Send loss we preemptively have announced reduce working hours in order to make ends meet and not to miss any time limits we have sent people on leave and weve tried to prepare for everything that chimes with many firms across germany who hope there is an end in sight to the Coronavirus Crisis one which does not kill their business dominic cain aljazeera berlin well joining us now via skype from edinburgh is. Chair of International Banking or and finance at the university of edinburgh and emilios has written extensively on Financial Regulation i mean its great to have you on the program let me start by asking you is the Banking Sector prepared for this pandemic do you think no nobodys the Banking Sector is in a much months but this shape. Than it was in 2008 but nothing like these and of course the biggest problem is this the exposure sold off balance by corporates law from corporates to corporates and even one of the defaults as you understand. The same corporation will be fought on its bank loans and then the stress on the Banking Sector will be imported in directly and thats the biggest the biggest said to me yes there is that corporate default on their Short Term Loans to other corporates this is a form of shuttle banking activity that was not regulated for 2008 and has created serious fragile vulnerabilities to the Global Financial system the other side that the banks face is that the spun they make and the fall in g. D. P. And the nation of Economic Activity lasts for a very long time nonperforming loans are accumulated and the stand by income capital is. Not sufficient to deal with this kind of of crisis do you think lessons have been learned since the 2008 financial crisis that we always fight the last crisis lessons had been and lessons have been learned and measures are in place to fight it is that the similar to the 2008 says that started from the Financial Sector its impossible to say whether the shock the impact of this type of crisis with nobody could predict a self crisis that would shut down the economies. Accounted for in the bank risk models in the bond capital reserves because it is not. For sure is there is a lot of a lot of resilience in the event of a number of defaults in the event or sun your brilliance and their willingness of Central Banks to support. Whatever it takes unlike what happened in the early stages of the 20072008. Let me of pandemic loss and loss of g. D. P. Is massive then the Banking Sector will face serious solvency problems as well and companies during this crisis are already asking for bailouts immobile of the big problems with the 2008 bailouts that was despite the massive cash injections into the Banking Industry very little went in to help the real economy and most of it went to dividends it went to bonuses and investing in the markets i mean thats a big problem isnt it. It ts and one hopes that this time whats going to be bailed out quantum is especially because there is no moral hazard problem nobody is really responsible for this type of just crisis and the 4 in the g. D. P. The 4 in Economic Activity so one hopes the government money time will go to bailout. Households not that you support Household Incomes and demand so that not to have a demand shock as well as the supply supply shock that we face today but we are economy in serious injections of government money and that should include selfemployed people with yourself insurance no pension no entitlements and households with of course still in need to face their day to day bills food bills the mortgage their credit card loans and so on and its an interesting point you make a 1000000 about the bailouts because the European Central bank has asked banks and other Financial Institutions to skip Dividend Payments so that they can cover their losses there are others that yeah but there are others who wish to go ahead i want to go ahead with these payments that doesnt look good that doesnt you know because what you do when you pay dividends to your shareholders job on shift you take cash out of the bank and this is going to be cash that will be needed will be required further down the road for the bank who will stand the pressure to withstand the shock and awe. That could be used to rollover loans to Small Businesses or individuals or startups in order to avoid the wave of default its very selfish. And the responsible in this environment to defy the European Central bank or the bank of england or the other regulators and go ahead being born and shes and the evidence should be all together in this and we should all share the pain otherwise companies will become morally bankrupt as well as financially i mean us this time around the governments are trying to help businesses directly arent they i mean should governments take stakes in these businesses and make sure they dont pass on the money to shareholders thereby enriching them. No but they can put Strings Attached to the cash that they are pushing the businesses they can ask the business not to eliminate capacity for the postcrisis period for a period say of 6 months or 12 once you get the same amount of employees the same output and so on so its very important that the money that goes into the private sector is safe because jobs and safeguards individual incomes as well as the viability of the Corporation Just a final point to you emily us this is all very well for rich countries but what about low and middle income nations how will banks talk there and what can governments or pretty stretch with big debts anyway what can they do to help the banks and keep them alive well thats a big question and obviously what i said about the resilience of the Banking Sector this time around at least for a time. Doesnt apply to the emerging markets what could happen there is that the world bank especially would and own organizations would help the state too with the loans that do not have a conditionality this is not the time for steady this is not the time to showing that they shove and smile and shit this is a time of fiscal expansion so International Organizations like members like the World Bank Regional banks all members of the g 20 should be prepared there is a wealthy countries members of the g 20 should be prepared to lend money to this smaller countries that we can trace in order to stabilize the Financial Sector and their economy the same. The same should be the case with the i. M. F. The big fear we have is that they might impose on this there is some senseless when we shouldnt i even though this gunderson have done nothing there on its a Global Pandemic there is going to be or there is a 3rd of the Global Financial crisis and they receive money because. They wont care if they stay afloat to stay solvent at the end of the day what is going to be the benefit for the Global Financial system for them well good luck there are financial organizations and it didnt end it can do this if we face 6 months down the line or a year down there oh it wave of sovereign by groups is ok whats going to be why that would be many what was gained so they should do the most for their countries in order to allow them to support their finances so i mean yes we have to leave it there thank you very much. For talking to counting the cost thank you. Well as the world grapples with a global recession its also witnessing the fastest pace of job destruction since the Great Depression tens of millions of jobs could be lost despite trillions of dollars spent on saving businesses and industries the hardest hit sectors are the Airline Hotel and Tourism Industry many millions on low pay and short Term Contracts well in the United States more than 14000000. 00 people could lose their jobs thats according to experts Goldman Sachs says the economy could contract by as much as 34 percent and unemployment could rise to 15 percent with unemployment already at a 45 year high many workers in indias informal economy stand to lose their jobs as 1300000000 people remain under lockdown its a similar picture in many low income and developing countries in the u. K. The number of people seeking universal benefits saw. To a staggering 950000 again there are similar numbers in spain and italy well as people around the world struggle with new anxiety is around the kobe 1000 pandemic theres great concern among groups in the us who live and work on the margins of society like undocumented workers and their families aljazeera is rob reynolds reports now from los angeles one son tionne is a day laborer. I work day to day so i have to work. Its them if i dont work with i want to have enough to cover the basic necessities in a city that has nothing. At the nonprofit Outreach Center where something beyond goes to find work staff are preparing bags with soap tissues and information packets about covert 19 but were really concerned specifically for workers that are elderly were really concerned about them we look at that we have a Huge Population of workers that are 60 and while it work many undocumented workers cant even practice basic virus prevention workers who dont have access to Running Water can even wash their hands at the month senior osco romero clinic in los angeles dr don garcia treats low income families many of whom are undocumented they live in the shadows their exposure i could very well say on an epidemiological site could even be higher than the ordinary resident or person of the United States just because of their employment standards garcia says some undocumented people ovoid interacting with Public Health systems for fear of being caught like immigration authorities and deported doctors say if the situation remains in which undocumented people stay in the shadows away from the Health Care System during the pandemic it poses a grave risk to the population as a whole theyre becoming a transmission vector to all those other individuals that theyre exposed to unless government policy encourages undocumented people to come out of the shadows the danger of infection could increase for everyone robert oulds Al Jazeera Los Angeles now the International Labor organization has estimated the pandemic will eliminate 6. 7 percent of working hours globally this quarter thats equivalent to 195000000 full time workers well im delighted to say we have via skype from geneva sung helmly hes the director of employment. The department at the ilo sang were living through extraordinary times arent we and im guessing our best estimates as to how deep job losses will be huge in the crisis is obviously going to keep changing whats your prediction then in terms of the actual job losses and how difficult is it to compare this pandemic to past events. I think this is very uncertain and also its very hard to predict whats going to happen over the course of this year. Actually about it 2 weeks ago we actually made a prediction about around 25000000 job losses actually by the end of this year and at the time there was the opposition is based on the our over a. Prediction about the g. D. P. And also the password direction of these pandemic and also how the employment will be sensitive to this economic shock so the whole these are some so we made a 40 hour initial actually prediction turn us to be rather optimistic so that u. D. P. Is moving fast and also the pandemic crisis will last longer than expected and also more importantly it the way at employment is responding to the this economy shock in the lockdowns are large and quickly and you know large scale and was a very immediate so the this actually put us in a very difficult situation to put data as to whats going to happen so we actually changed our methodology a little bit to look at the whats going to happen in the next 3 months thats something we did the same time looking at just the employment i mean have enough so you see the unity of the workers who manage to get you out but their working hours are shorter and sometimes on the paid leave and sometimes people have the temporary laid off so the improvement of figure doesnt necessarily come they have repeated of the reality on the ground thats why they actually start to actually use the working hours so young so then whats your advice to governments during this time especially as more than 2000002000000000 people are about to go into lockdown i mean theres a lot of people who stand to lose their jobs yeah exactly thats the thats the irony. Concern i mean its a very important this is a crisis of fact opposed to labor demand and supply side a centime and a centime deal because we were in the business to mathematical passed you call it this crisis themselves so its crucial and very important for the governments to take immediate actions to support them. And so timing is everything of course the lot of governments are actually making very impressive move to announce the stimulus packages. Not a part of that is actually for exporting the business and workers but we have to move very quickly timing is everything and also the we should put in place a very strong delivery mechanism to make sure the workers and businesses are actually benefit from this extra support in kind of the manner without any today lets just talk about developing countries if we can because the problem is a lot more difficult to get a grip of isnt it because of the huge Informal Sector economies in these countries how do you catch and support these individuals that i think this is basically the important question is specially for the informant workers as you notice the and then hes now spreading to Different Countries where typically more than 60 percent of the workers are informed workers normally in the crisis situation in former workers assume managed to actually do their Economic Activities but this time is different because the or kind of lock down the arrangement with or to restrict the movement and also the Economic Activities so they involve more jobs is not actually something actually these workers can can actually manage at the moment for this reason we think that the some sort of protection or income support from the government and community should be the key and International Community is moving very quickly to provide the necessary support for death so young let me get a final thought from you when we come through this what should our priorities be and whats your advice to governments. I think the is for us the job is to create because when you actually provide these spores to business and also to the other person measures for example through these stimulus package our recommendations or ways that the you have to give priority on the jobs and employment we know the we have regular girl lessons from the previous crisis for example over a final surprises in the 2008 and now. You see it is germany actually they are actually putting lots of emphasis on to making sure the workers maintain their jobs and that that is the focus of the sporting business as you are and other countries they are the less emphasis put in thats after says on the top they mentions the the alcan is another contrast in in germany the improvement of the problem and the situation actually somehow is quite ok and then. We have a very quickly but in other countries nike u. K. And also the United States are you taste it took quite a long time to actually getting back to the normal level of employment and when it comes to the incomes and also over or the wages for example it took almost 10 years to get back to precrisis a lever so i think what kind of recovery we want and its very clear i mean we have to make sure the joshua with our priority good means that you could incomes and thats a good life for the workers and thats what it will the society wants so he only thanks for talking to counting the cost thank you thank you so much. And thats our show for this week but remember you can get in touch with us via twitter use the hash tag a j c t c when you do all you can drop us an email counting the cost of aljazeera dot net is our address but theres more for you online and aljazeera dot com slash c t c that will take you straight to our page which has individual reports links and entire episodes for you to catch up on. But thats it for this edition of counting the cost im daryn jordan from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news and aljazeera is next. Greece the birthplace of democracy but ethnic turks from the northeast tell a different story they. Believe their religious leaders jailed journalists silenced schools closed and a surge in the far right they say that if you dont like you can both hurt you why im doing what im most of the people in power investigates western thrice contested space on al jazeera Award Winning programming from international till may because. Its here we are going to wife in 2nd life if we carry on this work just the arrest sets the stage that hes no longer in the night even if he is no longer and hes giving voice to the voiceless so are we ready to go for local expats and discussion that culture still exists in your batting that today open your eyes to an alternative view of the world today on aljazeera. Counting the cost from the Health Emergency to Economic Disaster could the world be heading for another financial crisis and us workers lose their jobs at a faster pace in the Great Depression what can the governments do to help and who is falling through the cracks. Counting the cost on aljazeera. The. Aljazeera. Carried this is the news hour live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes one month on from the declaration of a pandemic we go back to where it all began what markets of asia that are being blamed for the crisis. A rush to the shops in turkey ahead of a lockdown taking effect across the country. Cameroon launches nationwide testing officials brace for a surge in confirmed