Is the spread of the coronavirus out of control increasing numbers of cases are being reported around the World Governments are taking measures but often how do we prepare for a pandemic this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program im Adrian Finnegan from a wildlife market in china as well han says he with a corona virus is believed to have emerged to the city of calm in iran the disease is sweeping around the globe but Health Experts are warning that we could be on the brink of a pandemic more than 80000 people and over 40 countries have been infected the number of new cases inside the country at the center of the epidemic china has been overtaken for the 1st time by new infections outside now the focus of the outbreak is shifting to europe in particular and the middle east in that region iran appears to be the center of the spread of the disease cases in bahrain iraq q. Ways lebanon and oman have been linked to patients who travel to iran recently at least 139 people have been have been infected there and the iranian government is struggling to contain the outbreak on wednesday the country reported the largest death toll from the virus outside china with 19 people dead. Governments in neighboring countries are taking stricter measures to try to stop the corona virus spreading saudi arabia has announced that its temporarily halting visas for the pilgrimage and for people entering from affected countries iraq has closed schools universities and banned public gatherings as well as flights from several nations has ordered the evacuation of its citizens and q. Eightys from iran q 8 bahrain and the u. A. E. Cases have been reported and theyve also imposed strict travel measures well its only a so far been the worst affected country in europe the number of coronavirus cases there has jumped to 400 and the death toll as of thursday morning was 12 thats despite measures to contain it cases in other European Countries have been traced to italy but a 61 year old man who returned from there to brazil has become latin americas 1st case the u. S. Has halted joint military exercises in south korea and donald trump has put Vice President mike pence in charge of americas response to the outbreak trump has played down the threat from the virus to the u. S. Census for Disease Control had warned americans to prepare for a possible outbreak. Lets get the thoughts of our guest joining us here in doha is dr patrick tang division chief of Pathology Sciences at sidra medicine from nairobi via skype were joined by dr abdullah a medical doctor and Research Scientist at the african population and Health Research center and from oxford dr Dominic Wilkinson medical doctor and director of medical ethics at the your hero center for practical ethics at the university of oxford gentlemen welcome to the program lets start with you dr. At what point does this become a pandemic with the already with the disease spreading so far from the original outbreak we are certainly at the verge of a pandemic we are not technically in the midst of a pandemic yet but for all purposes we need to prepare for a pandemic and you know everyone in all Different Countries need to prepare for that eventuality does it matter what we label it i mean it its spread around the world already the label that we give this outbreak is irrelevant at this point given the spread in so many Different Countries around the world all citizens in every country around the world have to prepare to talk to their other how to prepare is a country like kenya for an outbreak of this virus. Is very difficult to see countries prepared or not prepared is a very big economy to have to but weve seen in the last from armed are not struggling to contain the leak so definitely i would say this is there are 2 you know 2 issue issues around screaming that made be easier on the outward taking peoples temperatures we know that it just keeps on going to reduce our billable the last few cases that weve seen on the continent now how to take samples out of the country to do have the testing done that to. For now we understand that im over 40 countries now have ability to do the testing locally but the other issues images we get to consider and Community Transmission is what happened with contact trusting what will happen in the isolation i think those facilities on the continent are going to be needed. Dr wilkinson how do we contain the spread of this virus globally what sort of measures and restrictions are justified to stop the spread of in corinth hitting towns and villages isnt 100 percent effective do we put for instance a temporary suspension on air travel well i think. The difficulty here is both knowing what would be effective. And then in trying to weigh up what justified we. Each day the new cases there are a new. Virus seems to be spreading fear that despite the measures that have been taken and i think you can take 2 opposite reactions to that you can say well whats the point in restricting Peoples Movement its not working its not working with for example. Very significant restrictions on Peoples Movements didnt stop the virus from spreading so whats the point or alternatively maybe we need to go even further as you say perhaps having quite draconian restrictions on on travel would that make a difference part of the difficulty is we simply dont know and also we dont know quite whats at stake although this is. A very serious outbreak of infection causing very serious illness we just dont know how bad it could be if it were going to be devastating globally it would be would be ethical to take some very drastic measures pressure why is the such concern about this particular virus when i mean if the winds appears to be far more deadly why the histeria if we can call it that or the 1st thing is this is a brand new virus we dont know that much about it yet definitely has a significant case fatality rate whether its 0 point one percent or up to 2 or 3 or 4 percent like were seeing in some parts of china so its not a virus that we can ignore and if you think about the Health Care Systems around the world weve established these Health Care Systems over the past few decades to handle the diseases that we already know about when you have ever had a new disease in the mix it can easily overwhelm the Health Care System especially if too many people are sick at the same time so its potential the were particularly worried about at the moment in that we we know we think we know what it does at the moment but it but it could go on. And becomes something much worse yes and i think its more than just the potential but its also the rate at which we let the virus spread so if we let it go uncontrolled it could infect many many people at the same time and too many people are sick in the same place at the same time the Health Care Systems in any country would be overwhelms like the flu patrick is this virus. Like influenza is it going to be an ever present threat from from now on the world is this something that can be eradicated its a virus is new and once its out in the wild thats it. Well there was probably a chance at the very beginning when the virus is still contained in china to contain it and potentially eradicate it the same way we did for sars at that with the Current Situation it looks a very unlikely if not impossible to eradicate it using the measures that we have right now things like quarantine. So. The only way to address this virus is to control it spread right now and prepare the Different Countries and populations around the world for the eventuality of becoming acted. With an outbreak of this virus affect a country like somalia what hope with. Preventing a spread right through the population. Are not right in somalia but we know that somalia situation to quiet where it was compared to many african countries theres an interesting publication recent publication by the by the lancet where the Group Countries by the risk of input tension variance these are the that billy t. Of this is due to respond and it is obvious that the countries that have moderate or high risk but the capacity to respond is quite is quite right which somalia is really dysfunctional politically economically and the Health Care System is also dysfunctional so i would forbid if an outbreak happened that. We cannot exactly predict what happens. We dont know about for example in china would that happen in other countries people respect i dont read them to do. And lucky breaks out because of the restrictions on the people we we dont know so. I dont want to imagine what might happen but i think it is probably. Going to be rebranded have been that and in minot african countries because the last 50 or the ability to respond to alya is quite limited days system theyre already struggling with the existing. Existing but included is now one about a new strange as weve seen in china and then a assume that that if you if you do get an outbreak in a place like somalia which which goes unchecked because of the countrys inability to suffice it that has a knock on effect for a country like kenya which is reasonably well prepared definitely its not just a knock on effect on kenya think about all the countries that time around the region. Fade and the need bad all these african countries will be at a high risk so this is a problem that nebulous aid we need all countries need because i think the question is when not if this is going to happen. Dominick. If the rest of the world it is is distracted with its by its own fight against this virus and then you get a country like like somalia francis will take as an example that gets a severe outbreak who and who prioritize his medical resources and what goes where around the world. Well i think you are pointing to the fact that there is a need to think locally as well as globally and one of the challenges at at present is that each country is is having to invest very significant amounts of resources into their own population to prevent spread but as as weve alluded its possible that the greatest impact of this disease will be. In in countries without. Will structured Health Care Systems and and i think they were both selfish reasons and selfless reasons that those developed countries need to support places like somalia but other than the developing countries. Both to reduce the spread globally and also they reportedly to reduce the impact of this piracy in those places to reduce the numbers of deaths that we might prevent if if we can. If we can pressure it would read you agree with that yes i totally agree with that we have to balance the needs both locally as ones globally because the world is so interconnected now that we cannot ignore any region of the world. Dominic. Come about something you said if you a few moments ago about about the spread of the disease and how we are the virus and how we contain it the e. U. Said on thursday that blocking Cross Border Movement of those who who show symptoms within the block would be counterproductive why would why would they say that well. I mean theres a fundamental issue which is the tradeoff between individual freedoms and liberties and the possible. Benefits to Public Health by preventing Peoples Movements and at the moment i take it that the you concluded that. That they dont want to restrict Peoples Movements because thats a fairly. Common fundamental freedom within within the European Union but as as weve seen. Being timid in response to this virus. Allows it to spread and its possible that they may need to radically revise its approach to questions like that. Because if were going to. If were going to make a difference and prevent. Prevent deaths from this virus we may need to take really radical steps. Other lessons that we can draw. From the fight against a bowler in west africa when it comes to this virus yeah i think. The key one i can quickly think about is and really hard netted International Response. Diseases dont respect Others International borders the they do can cause what has and now when that happens. Then in many countries will be different after tips or accord noted International Response is very important the 2nd point is a Public HealthEducation One of the reasons why the beginning in west africa really went on to one out of control with the issue of misinformation people who are understanding what they ought to do and what they who need to do and that made their contre they didnt it made it harder for the Health Care System. To the point i could quickly think about is they did issue. A balance between the impact of the epidemic on their qana me and this russian setup of the country these are really the prevention i think it is and it days we do not know whether the very restrictive measures taken in china has worked because right now we know we have information that. Much as china has the highest number of cases it has there is number of new. Cases compared to the rest of the world. It put the question whether those measures are working and even if they are working and they work in other parts of the country so local response is of course guided by evidence i. Think is the way to go and definitely countries you to be in they were trying to be sure that it would get to the 1st cases in time and i should read a capacity to transfer cases that have been exposed to danger actions. Your is a couple of interesting points that let me just speak to patrick and dominic about them dominic the media have covered the spread of the this virus extensively for weeks now and it seems to be whipping up almost near hysteria times is the spread of the virus a concern of course for concern for the likes of of you and me is it is a course to panic almost to some Media Outlets which would have us believe just how worried should we be. I think right to the moment the risk to. The individuals is small particularly in places where there are few cases we we know that that the majority of people who have this virus have minimal or no symptoms. Its a serious concern that this virus can cause some people to be become very seriously life threatening me you know and to die and i think the biggest concern is the number of patients who might be affected and what impact that might have on Health Systems. But i think from a personal perspective the risks are pretty small. Small relative to the other things. Much more likely i suspect today or tonight to to be hit in a car crash than than to contract coronavirus so we have more reason to worry about that. In the Bigger Picture of the global picture i think coronavirus is a huge concern ok patrick a ordinary citizen not as a doctor do you do you concur with that how worried are you about this i totally agree with those statements that the risk to people that are not in these heavily affected regions is still very low extremely low but i think we have to keep up with this Public Health messaging that the pandemic is coming and that people need to have plans and to be prepared and institutions have to be prepared because. Through all of this messaging no matter what theres going to be a lot of fear in the beginning we saw that with sars we saw that with the pandemic flu in 2009 so thats its inevitable we always try to see how can we reduce that initial panic initial fear but after that these people become accepted. Of the fact that theres going to be a pandemic with that there is an outbreak and that becomes like the new normal and then people take the appropriate measures to protect themselves as well as protect others and think thats really important that we have to establish this new sense of of alertness for the virus in that it that we we if everybody is thinking the same way then we can start to trust everybody else so we have to trust the other people or stay home when their sticks we have to trust other people that they will wear masks if theyre sick and and not infect other people may have a different perspective i dont know how do you feel that speaking from from from africa from east africa yeah i agree that. The risk is going to be you know compared to our priorities but the potential for that to get out of hand is very we know that this is a new virus and governor it comes with a little misinformation and dogs around and to prevent and without risk and what are the consequences of getting it was so yes going to messaging barbequed you question particularly education but also most important it is for countries to prepare and have the capacity. To savage a response when you know reasons not to be quote an awareness group. Countries should be prepared to accept the fact that the me she comments will cases if the outbreak so happens. Dominick is if as asthma looks likely the virus spreads further in the coming days and weeks what impact is that going to have on Health Care Systems businesses and society in general this point the birth patrick of the dollar were talking about there and it terms of medical treatment should medical professionals be prioritized in terms of treatment and access to any any potential vaccine that comes along. Well i think the hope is that a vaccine will come available but the worry is that it may not be available soon enough that it may yet be and more than a year before a vaccine is is going to make a difference and i think the concern as weve heard already is that Health Care Systems the ticket li in low resource countries may be crippled by a very large number of cases and really struggle to cope and that can be compounded if Health Care Workers are concerned for their own health in china more than 1500 Health Professionals have contracted the virus 6 doctors have died including. Reports young and otherwise healthy Health Professionals i think that may mean in some parts of the world that Health Professionals are reluctant to be caring for patients with the virus and then that of course will compound the problem because it will compound the problem of the Health System is being able to care for patients so we need to be able to reassure Health Professionals one way of doing that is to make sure they have access to the personal protective equipment to reduce their risk another is by giving them Accurate Information about the virus and the risks and then said hes addressing. What happens if those Health Professionals become unwell we need to make they need to be sure that they will get access to medical treatment but economically very very quickly because were running out of time here what is the Impact Likely to be economically. Well i think weve already seen signs. Both locally and globally of the potential Economic Impact of this infection and i i think its very difficult to know just what impact it might have clearly if this virus spreads as far and wide as is feeding it and causes major disruption to. To business isnt the movement that will have caused a dramatic slowdown globally and of course that itself ok will have been a negative impact on peoples lives over and above the effect of the virus patrick we got just a few seconds left here there be a lot of people who are watching this who are very concerned very worried about the spread of this virus what can you say to reassure them how how can they protect themselves and ensure give themselves the best chance of not acquiring it in the 1st place i think we have to go back to the commonsense measures that the regular person can do washing your hands not touching your face and being aware of your surroundings and not being around other people who are sick and and if you are self or sick dont go out and dont go to work dont go to school to infect other people and if we have that level of trust trust of other people trust of the government and then we can prevent panic doctors patrick tang dr abdullahs a robber dominic Will Wilkinson many thanks indeed for being with us today on inside story as always thank you for watching if you want to see the program again you can go to web sites aljazeera dot com for further discussion about the virus join us with our Facebook Page youll find that at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter handle a. J. Inside story from me adrian for the good of the whole team here at the thanks for watching ill see you again and. I. As a weapon of war leaves the very deepest scars. Scars so rule that the victims men and women can barely talk about it. They are the only witnesses who can help bring about justice aljazeera follows human rights campaigners in libya investigating right since the 2011 revolution. Libya unspeakable crime on aljazeera its the day that will define the democratic race for the white house. 14 states get to make eventually its own who should challenge donald trump in the president ial election join us for americas super tuesday. Special coverage live on aljazeera. He started as a modest man. Carry a soldier whod never imagined he might one day become president of egypt. He had an ambitious wife and son he became an algebra and was imprisoned for the unlawful killing of protesters. 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