Who runs afghanistan after the disputed president ial Election Results and how will that impact the talks with the taliban with ashraf ghani declared the winner by the smallest of knowledge and his opponent top Dollar Dollar says hell form a parallel of ministration the us wants to pull out while pushing for peace at the same time after 40 years of war and conflict how will the key players result this latest crisis this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im peter dalby now in 2014 their rivalry resulted in the u. S. Brokered deal to share power which was punctuated by 5 years of bickering and now ashraf ghani and Abdullah Abdullah are again disputing an election result danny is officially the winner but only just and thats rejected by abdullah who shares power with the president as chief executive he is now threatening to form his own parallel government this political showdown couldnt come at a more critical time for afghanistan the u. S. And the taliban do appear close to an agreement that could lead to a planned reduction in violence and if that posture is largely maintained it could be a precursor to afghan politicians sitting opposite the taliban but how can any of that happen until we know who runs afghanistan were a challenge sets up our discussion. Since september afghanistans Election Commission has been sifting complaints and contested votes trying to work out whether ashraf ghani has the 50 percent plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff he does its finally announced but only just but that she has said i had to open it according to the constitution we declared mr ashraf ghani who recovered 923592 votes which is equal to 50. 64 percent of the countrys total vote in the election as the president elect of the government of the Islamic Republic of afghanistan. The incumbent is naturally celebrating. The matter. But im dedicating this victory of the people to the people and as the 1st servants with our united seem we will always safeguard the rights of the Afghan People but although the decision puts months of electoral uncertainty to rest it opens a new chapter of danger just like when gandhi was ruled the winner in 2014 his main rival Abdullah Abdullah is calling the result illegitimate that t. J. Dickey in the result they announced today was the result of election a coup against democracy the betrayal of the will of the people and we considered it to be illegal. In 2014 the u. S. Brokered a power sharing agreement with danny president and of diller chief executive. This time around the u. S. Is doing deals with the taliban there near an agreement in doha which could be announced soon if an initial reduction in violence is successfully observed the u. S. Wants to bring its troops home. With the taliban also says gone these reelection is illegal and contravenes the Peace Process will reach alans aljazeera. Ok lets bring in our guests joining us today from kabul is tommy massey hes formally deputy minister of defense and the executive chairman of the institute of war and peace studies a kabul based think tank and joining us from islamabad is symbol current political and security analyst welcome to you both coming to you 1st i mean weve been here before 2014 but this is a little bit different because of the dynamic that surrounding the taliban now we have been here before but the difference is basically tree 4th 1st. We havent had a peace deal hanging on the horizon the 2nd reason which is different is we dont have a foreign mediator like john kerry former secretary of state to come to kabul and mediate between the 2 candidates and the 3rd factor which makes it very different is you have a president who has been almost isolated politically without a big Political Base and that is why i think this time it would be much more difficult in terms of reaching. Some sort of an electoral agreement but my believe is that we run into either of the 2 scenarios. 1st we will go to what i call of National Unity government 2. 0 or some sort of a participate or a government again another one. Or the 2nd option is you will have the current president leading the government but he will have a limited term until the Peace Agreement comes to some sort of a conclusion and then we call for an early election symbol in islamabad a National Unity government 2. 00 how would that work indeed could it work. I i really dont think that is going to be an option now with the way it since the situation has done for the specially some announcements today has moved from the law of the law calling to the interior ministry to intervene and stop the independent Election Commission from leaving the country although i dont know why that happened because we have no information whether the independent Election Commission members were indeed planning to travel out of the country or not i think with just a bit of muscle flexing it is very dangerous this kind of mustnt lexing which indicates some kind of an institutional split among the state and their institutions that it seems that this announcement that the left a lot of intake that he does control of. Security that they did institutions that you know and a ministry of various kinds of security and under security instruments up until 5. It is traditionally supposed to have been Going Forward by people from the from the militant party the from of the love thats factions so not a very good sign or for that i think the unity government doesnt seem to be something thats possible now i do agree with my friend from i missed on that miss some kind of the resolution but he might be allowed to continue in an internet im kind of a set up. Might be something that look a little i think my friend from governor also mentioned that there is no involvement of a high level but its not a deal but i think thats going to probably change very soon not well i think that is going to be more involvement or i definitely very strongly feel that there should be more high level involvement right now so i think that kind of provide fighting is going to happen the confident interim setup was there for some time i may i think there it was there before the elections happened and i think even pakistan bites any govern and put itself into a big. Troubled by a Prime Minister and grandson saying that such an event and set up should exist and im not ready to go into an election thinking. Were going to look for a 2nd term emergency in kabul we should however in theory be heading into intra afghan discussions which should dovetail with the taliban quotes Peace Process is that now completely in jeopardy no no no thats not and youre pretty we havent started in traffic in talks yet and we will have to look into who will be didnt go shooting team what could be different layers of negotiations and how a deal would might conclude it took americans almost one plus one year and plus some months to come to some sort of an agreement now initially with the taleban i think the interest in talk would be much more time consuming much more of a bumpy ride and much more complicated but to clarify a few things i think i need to mention it 1st of all the Afghan National defense and Security Forces is truly National Professional force right now there is no more Northern Alliance or a southern or i dont know eastern controlling the Afghan National defense and Security Forces is a National Force a professional force and it has a state away throughout all of the elections for the previous elections which all of them were one way or another disputed state out of the other thing is that yes abdullah wrote a decree trying to bar the commissioners to get out but that was a political maneuvering Everybody Knows and today the interior ministry of afghanistan basically said that yes we respect what heroes but we abide by the laws and its the attorney general of afghanistan which decides who should be on and make that. Control less that type of thing that exists in pakistan or the other issue which is i think very very important for all of us and terms of the implications of this electoral crisis on the peace. Process is we need to have a government 1st and here we need to have a president we need to have somebody in charge of the africans were tired for the last 5 months of this fiasco has been going on and now finally we have a president and i think with all its problems we need to accept that there is a president but we need to show some sort of with this president. Who came. Through the. As the winner has to do 3 things 1st form a broad based government. And reach out to different political actors in afghanistan the 2nd thing he needs to do is engage with our neighbors because some of them have serious reservations about some of the policies that our government has been pursuing and the 3rd thing is put peace on a high on the agenda in terms of the interim government no afghan will accept an interim government we are not going back to squares iraq. To square one basically the afghans want some sort of a transition make an ism under the existing republic how would that come out would be a decision or an agenda item in the interest can talk ok but definitely not an interim government an interim government is going back to the present if i can just come in and interrupt i think when he met its its a matter of semantics and he said im set up a Transitional Government is again something i Transitional Government is also kind of and he said im set up for and the dialogue starts and this would be end of the dialogue with some kind of a p. C. List me and as you yourself are pointing out that you dont think this is going to be interrupted that its going to go on. Any reporting to the neighbors also there are lots of concerns that the neighbors right now have specially one of the neighbors pakistan which is what a lot of its a lot of. Its a kind of value to stop of the negotiation of the medicine and of diplomatic as well as Political Capital in helping start these negotiations over all the neighbors that one neighbor that has really been pushing it has been parked we are right now with the mechanism that was decided with this 7 day partner thought it was always a has also been the main source of the problem pakistan has been a safer back. To the taliban leadership so short im just want to move on and talk about the peace deal that the Drop Administration was then he signed with the taliban in the next days and then theyd have to be a mechanism to when you talk about reduction in violence there has to be a mechanism in place which would judge how you validate or not elevate this reduction in violence with the up people thats going on right now in an honest with the consigns around how how all these institutions within a panasonic what do you possibly think are these processes will continue uninterrupted by the disruption that youve just seen to me like come back on that point well. Yes i think we appreciate with pakistan is doing for the african peace but part but lets not forget history a little not forget the taliban leadership frequently flies to pakistani cities to consult with their leaders should lie with us. A lot of but no i will come to your question but i would like to say that if pakistan is doing anything its because of they need to do it because they are the source of the problem and they have been for a brain many many years and thats why hundreds of keeps travelling to g. H. Q. And talking to you know of the chief of ok you need to i dont particularly want to get into your relationship between the taliban in afghanistan and the taliban in pakistan and who gets sanctuary where thats a different discussion which we have had on this channel and i dare say will have it again symbolic coming back to you assuming that these 2 men ashraf ghani and Abdullah Abdullah can Work Together is there another dynamic that they have to be aware of rewind to the election 56 months ago 2000000. 00 people cast their votes but democracy is not alive and well in afghanistan because potentially 1600000 people could cast their vote so theres something very wrong there to start with i think ill come back to me are you applying to sponsor this that you know that was not just in pakistan i mean around the world this does actually the u. S. State or does it tell you that in baskets believe god and other people look very large specially the european a lot of European Partners that like the germans everyone was not the opinion that the time wasnt ready because of the problems that you pointing out because of the problems with how the democratic system has been unfolding last 15 yards in an amazon its not really the floor of the dolphins its basically trying to build a democratic system within a conflict zone within along what is on these problems are quite indefinite because of those shortcomings elections should not have happened and because they will post. It is that there are reasons which was why i was sorry elections should have happened elections should have happened and what i mean not that i want to intervene here because the elections should happen its not for the neighbors its not for the neighbors and analysts to tell girls elections for the house and afghanistan undermine our constitution zz and again i just finished i am not trying to blame the desire specially post by any administration to have elections as some think as something evil that plenty of ministration want to do i do understand the frustration that president any face to this unity government that brings on nothing really actually work during that time i thought also too tremendous not but a number of our on commentators like yourself everybody was respected because of the lack of progress that was happening within with services of the everything because of this problem of the nonconstitutional unity government that came to because of the last 24000 election process ok lets see about risk just let me just let me stop you there and im serious question for me out of these 2 men ashraf ghani a bell of delhi which one of the 2 is more predisposed to talk to the taliban for the good of the country. You know beloved you know melissa i mean yes well i think what i want to talk to the family but i dont think this issue is about talking that i live on it or the issue is about where to side and then how its i would there not i miss them and how the system is functioning that you would mean that it is not to be used ordered around the docks that ok and to mean a c. In kabul the u. S. Defense secretary for hinting just in the past 24 hours there is some wriggle room here because its not the timetable in the choreography isnt necessarily set in stone so whats the conversation do you think thats taking place between the trumpet ministration that wants to get out but knows it cant leave a vacuum in afghanistan because at the moment theyve got about 13000 u. S. Personnel on the ground in the country from a peak of 100000. 00 and it cost billions of dollars every year to the trumpet ministration it wants to be gone from that situation but whats the conversation to keep it moving forward well right now the trumpet ministration would like to reduce its troops in afghanistan but they definitely as markets spur and others have also indicated as well as secretary pump air they dont want to leave afghanistan and if you have read times Magazine Article there are secret antics that is within this agreement which will pave the way for a long term u. S. City presence and taliban have agreed to that. Acourt if Time Magazine is to be believed which is a very very credible source based on that of interviews there are within the us an inspiration now the question is what who who within this within the afghan side will be able to come to some sort of an agreement with the taliban it should be the Islamic Republic of afghanistan the government the sitting government leading the talks in traffic and talks and reaching to some sort of an agreement with the taliban on various terms and there has to be hard compromises made there from one side to the other and simple can in a slum about why is it in afghanistan it is such a difficult problem to solve talking to the taliban i mean the u. S. Has spent overall 900000000000. 00 fighting the taliban in effect but the taliban is still so strong it still controls 50 percent of the country. Yes true i think that that that that fact that theyre growing up on everybody can tell you something thats wants to do you through that reflected in u. N. Records as well as u. S. Military is on reports on that but why why the issue of dialogue with china by missile difficult i think its basically this more of what ive hinted before this kind of a far more discrete this on struck between who will actually follow in the uk and government that is a big factor that is stopping the negotiations but there has been a lot of consensus building within a lot of fun over this issue of negotiations a few years ago and this there was a big factional split will who actually really wanted to talk to the taiwan with an openness and but although they lost the especially the last in a more kind of incremental increase of dialogue between the u. S. And the i mean. These opinions have changed and there is a growing consensus among the actors inside of imus and we do think that when it even was given with dileep on it is something that they are interested in and i think that im sense is it ok but basically if it does which hard to. What would a lot of the divine is the real issue would have presented the government of understood i mean is that is talking to the taliban to me the only scenario and bear with me on this one is it possible to get beyond the taliban or do they have to be dealt with some thinking 179 the soviet Union Invaded 1909 the soviet union leaves but in 1909 that government went on to last for what 2 to half or 3 years. Well i would like to before i answer your question i would like to say a few things 1st number one the taliban do not control 50 percent of this country they dont even control a single provincial capital they control around 17 districts and we need to it we need to be very careful when we throw out those the statistics and the statistics are based on threat assessment not based on control factor the other thing which i would like to mention all afghans want peace the survey that mine is to toot the survey that the Asia Foundation that this survey that the afghan a city of studies that more than 80 percent of afghans including areas controlled by the taliban population control by the taliban say that this war has to end that there needs to be a political settlement and i think both the taliban and the Afghan Government have realized that there is a military stalemate in terms of the comparison of the soviet to the American Experience i think that the circumstances have considered the historical circumstances are very different and different than what we see but that the americans invested in afghanistan or fought in afghanistan because of al qaida and because of other terrorist groups which were based here ok not because of this certainly of the taliban the taliban were host to the to the to these terrorist groups ok to me im going to push there because we are heading quickly towards the end of the program symbol can in islamabad forgive me if my next question sounds incredibly naive bordering on stupid what would peace in afghanistan look like you have to be 455055 years old to remember a time when the country was basically at peace. I think basically peace in a lot of time realistically it would look like where the big complex between the taleban and the up on biggest factions in the minus one specially they are on state comes to an end and there is a limited International Presence present as i mean was saying i believe there is possibly going to be for some foreseeable future some limited presence of International Troops that they are still there but there is a larger peace negotiation which succeeds in the end and there is an end to large hostilities i dont think they will be complete these and im as they had a smaller and bigger group still there fractured there might be some greens migrate but the best possible scenario would be that there is this larger negotiated end to the big wall between the up on taleban and upon government and the state and some of the other political actors as well i think thats the best possible scenario when you look at these a lot of insecurity still in august not instabilities which you need a bigger developmental onset than just of course the last point to use i mean what were talking about is ending 40 years of war hundreds of thousands of deaths in effect thats what were talking about a country that that has been at bottom for a long time is the direction of travel despite the election result despite the relationship between Abdullah Abdullah and ashraf ghani is it still moving in the right direction for you. It is we are on the right track pieces there we are on a peace track i think we have invested for the last 18 years and before that on war lets invest on peace and what i do agree is that it is a dream. For everybody or for anybody who thinks its almost like Wishful Thinking to think that the afghan war will completely vanish with the peace deal with the taliban i think the big scale war will go away you will still have some sort of you know skirmishes around the country because this war will transform into a new war but the scale of it will be much much less are we already see that some of the taliban ranks are switching sides and becoming basically changing flags in flags and becoming ice k. P. And to other groups but they will be manageable once the big war between the taliban and the Afghan Government comes to stop sort of a political settlement so in that regard i totally agree but thinking that this war will finish overnight because theres a peace deal between the taliban and the Afghan Government and there will be some sort of a limited presence of the you know the interNational Forces here to do City Operations that is. That is doable but the war will not finish the war will transform into some sort of a list of scale. Skirmish ok thank you for that we have to leave our discussion there thank you to our 2 guests they were to me as the and symbol khan and thank you too for watching the program you can see the show again any time by going to our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion to check our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a. J. 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