a potential political shakeup in pity and poll said the irish a shifting away from the 2 main parties towards shin fein so how might this affect the next government and could it redefine island's politics this is inside story. hello welcome to the program i'm adrian finnegan islands governments of long been dominated by 2 center right posses phin a gale that's the posse of current prime minister leo varadkar and finn a fall but this appears to be changing opinion polls show shin fein is now the most popular posse of arabica is in 3rd place it means he might not be able to secure a 3rd successive and saturday's general election could produce a part of us where neither of the main parties has a majority that opens the door to shin fein playing a major role in any future government i was 0 snaith baka reports from dublin. the past 9 years the government led by prime minister leo veronicas presided over a period of cultural change now abortion is legal and so is same sex marriage in this traditionally catholic country but leo veronica's also been accused of missing the mark when it comes to dealing with key issues like homelessness health care and housing and now for the 1st time in island's modern political history it looks as if they could be a shift away from the centrist parties to the left wing shinn fame party during 30 years of violence in northern ireland a period known simply as the troubles in which 3 and a half 1000 people died shem fein were regarded as being the political wing of the paramilitary group the ira the party now says those old distinctions no longer applied have set tackling some of violence biggest problems at the heart of the party's campaign also want to hold a referendum on unifying arland within 5 years something that the centrist parties say it's too soon a referendum that could have a destabilizing factor on the whole of the island of ireland no single party is expected to win this election outright coalition building is inevitable the question is whether these parties can work together to form a stable government if barca for inside story well here's a look at some of the main campaign themes in this election in a recent poll voters said that health care worse that top priority hospitals are facing staffing shortages at a struggling to meet demand waiting times to see a doctor and for hospital beds have tripled islands also experiencing one of the most acute housing crises in europe and the capital dublin rents have doubled over the past decade 6000 children are homeless gross domestic product a sword but so too have tax bills and many people have been angered by government plans to extend the age that they can receive a state. by 2 years to 68 by the a 2028. all right let's bring in our guests for today's discussion we're joined by who is an associate professor of political science at dublin city university school of law and government he joins us via skype from could is in spain from dublin with joined by devlin the braden a political columnist and author of power play the rise of modernization fein and from newcastle in england we're joined by. in history at northumbria university and an expert in irish fest gentlemen welcome to inside story on let's start with you if the polls are right and shin fein does well will feed a full go into government with shin fein as a coalition partner i mean if those polls translate into seats for shin fein who else could fit a full forward government with i mean could it. they say they won't go in and i think a leader of uniform a whole martin this in syrian saying when he says that he won't go into government with faint it will only take a couple of days before we know how they folks are actually translated into seats and it's only then that we really see what options are open theater fall would prefer to form a coalition government with the green party the labor party and the social democrats those sort of center left parties it may mean that they may not be able to do that they it's quite probable in fact that they want their numbers and it's possible then. shipping coalition might be warned us is a possibility. in the past when parties are said that never go into government but other people very often they will immediately did so take it work it takes a little bit it certainly take a bit of work because both parties ship a no fear or to pass through the party come to allow the barriers to go into cuccinelli hope easy for either ship train or can afford to do something like this . because i just happened you mention michel martin of course a fierce critic of shin famous let's let's face it i mean this this is possibly his final chance to become prime minister to show but he's not really going to turn the tide way from that if she in famous keating to him becoming the leader is. no uncertainty counts i mean there's nobody else there to become leader and so you have very few people who make it all the way to politics get offered the job of t. shirt and our prime minister and then say no to us so my suspicion is that while it would be difficult for both sides both beautiful and for shit fate to do this if that america's made us such that it was really the only viable option i suspect that they would stoops declan would fain a fall enter into a grand coalition with finn and finn again hail amid the rivalry dates back to what but the civil war policy wise has this not much between them or it is it appears that a political and possibility. oh i don't think it's an impossibility i think it's highly unlikely i mean it would be i don't know it would be like sendek and rangers . says take. farming one football team you know it's just it goes back so far around us tied in with old class divisions you know and it's such a tradition especially with the centenary of the civil war coming up and what they did to each other at that time there are supporters so i don't see it as a as a possibility i think it's highly unlikely also it would not find favor with the establishment of the financial establishment for example because they would be. very own and twos yeah stick about chin fein becoming the mean party of opposition and the alternative government so what do you think is going to happen who will find a full go into coalition with i can't i thought moment i think the strongest possibility is that they will have enough seats to form an alliance with the green party the labor party and independents there are a lot of independents probably there were probably be about 16 or 17 out of $160.00 in the new dog parliament so i think it will be possible bill maybe difficult to form a cone a clear majority another option would be to have a minority government which would be. a tolerated by finegan in opposition in other words every enactment of what we've had for the last few years but with the roles reversed where this time finegan would be in opposition and pheno fall would be in government instead of the other way around. feigns current leadership is from that the peace process generation y. to the main. stream parties in ireland still regard them as talks will they ever be able to shake off their baggage it'll be very difficult i think part of the difficulty is one of the reasons why shin fein replaced gerry adams with mary lou mcdonald was to lose this tag and news this is o.c.a. sion of the past but this is that these objections are actually very much based on the present and what kind of a government should fame might be involved with so instant fame has some decision making or power around coal it's around policing given their ambivalent attitude towards this what's the what is the special criminal court and also in terms of other general legal matters you're still dealing very much with a party which has these associations and what that spirit too which is haunted this election is of a young man named paul quinn who was killed who is lowered to a farm he was from oma but he was known to fall in county monaghan on the 20th of october 2007 which by the way i was in had was a time when the executive and northern ireland and know that on december they had been back up and running and this young man was killed by people associated with the i am right which is the wing option fighting and so therefore this is actually very much about the president as well and about the kind of decisions that sinn fein would be around and able to influence the rights how do you explain the popularity of him fame with votes in the south. it's to do with that young young generation of voters i actually think it's quite a global thing in some ways and certainly you know european context you're dealing with a generation of people who know that they will be poorer than their parents as you alluded to earlier in your program essentially those policies for the last 90 is the largest to irish parties faina farland finegan have slipped and alternated in power and it's regarded some implication is that it's been a foil it's turned now and a lot of people have said well you know the last time seen a follower in power they didn't make such a good job of it and we actually don't feel that we are a wealthy country small european country we feel that we are a we are actually our access to health to housing especially which tends to be very expensive is not being belled and it's not very good we're not actually going to put up with this and actually we would like to change we would like something different the final thing i wanted to add to this was don't underestimate the referenda referendums that will pop in 2015 for same sex marriage marriage equality and also in 2018 for portion rights essentially what that shin fein were involved in both of those though of course there was a coalition of parties and interests and activists but what those votes showed was that there's a younger generation of people who if you get them involved in politics can enact real change at the ballot box and influence the politics of violence in a very profound way oh it i don't want the whole of our discussion here to be about shin fame but there are a couple of quick questions on a lot of laws what would shin fein in government if it came to that mean for a united ireland how far apart on the issue feet of full and shin fein they were not as quite as far apart as insofar as that they are if they're both the favor of you know i got it all parties that's not your view people are in favor of. i would say that there are a. in favor of the north are they will differ quite profoundly though this is the to which the us happens out of the way in which it happens in feigned seem to be moving it to war it's a position where they're almost post good friday agreement that was the settlement in 1986 between the parties that 2 parts of who have an art and 2 communities in order and in which both sides said that they have to give each other almost a mutual veto. shin fein are moving to a plate position where they just think that if we can get 50 percent plus one of the voters in northern ireland to say that we will have a united ireland they would be in favor of most of the other parties in the republican party and would be wary of that way of which achieving a united ireland and wants to bring in its parts communities along with them rather than just a problem or agree at that i suppose the issue is is the timing of a is there anything in fanfold manifesto about a on a referendum that would that would preclude doing any sort of deal with sinn fein on it. no and through a loss of thena faller support which kind of viscerally like this sort of which share a lot of shouldn't feigns position on the north the thing about it is that. fame can surely called for a border post but it's not in the gift of the irish government it is the u.k. secretary of state for northern ireland that can say when a border post happens and so it will it won't really affect us. who's in governments as such ok certainly should change if they were in government public environment could push a u.k. secretary of state towards this but they're not going to be moved so unless there's a real sense that this is a time where maybe more than i could get more than 50 percent well it's definitely over sinfully probably also don't really want i mean it's something that is easy to ask for and it's good for men when they refuse because they can say well we've been asking for a porter who look at us we're interested and the rest don't seem to care but it a border problem might be something that they actually that they don't actually want because it's not certain what the outcome would be and if they were together order. that would put some of the prospect of you know. ok. you spoke about the fate of full possibly mannish and to pull together a coalition that doesn't involve shin fein how how stable a government would that be and one last question on shin fein. could shin fein pull together some sort of coalition with left wing parties and independents is that even mathematically impossible and what sort of government would that be. well the outgoing government was only expected to last 6 months but in fact it lasted about 3 and a half years so sometimes shaky coalitions actually last longer than people predict at the time so i think seen a fall could do that and could keep that kind of make some gather around coalition together far a few years out for shin fein i don't unfortunately for them they haven't run enough candidates to win the number of seats that they could have won otherwise in other words they've only 42 candidates whereas phina fall of 84 and i think like everybody else they were and they were not expecting to be doing so well in the polls now in terry on a very good day for shane fein date codes maybe cobble together something i think it's highly unlikely. and i think it probably wouldn't last very long but i think definitely they're going to be a major force in the next next parliament. conal why hasn't the far right managed to get any sort of foothold in in iowa and how do you explain this wave of popular reason that we've seen elsewhere being almost completely absent in island what is sometimes it said that when populism occurs in ireland it actually tacks more towards the last than the right and i think there probably has been a slight leftward shift in the population if not i don't think that that's going to going to create the nucleus of a new government at all necessarily but at the same time there's no question that that there's been a little bit of that and a reaction against those 2 larger centers center right parties there are it's not i think you should be aware that there are some right wing elements and certainly quite voluble populist individuals who are former chairman lists and and other figures who who are quite prominent on on social media and so on and one of them is running and it's actually amounted to cases running in 2 different constituencies down south and then up north and not and also and on a go as well so there are. he wouldn't describe cases right but he's that kind of populist figures for sure are good comments he's made about the traveling to mena t. and i didn't so i think that those elements of that but there's probably an argument to say that senior 4 and have enough of a conservative agenda to be able to sweep up some of those out and send probably similar to what happens in the u.k. with the conservative party see them off and also don't forget in this question that also the effect of breck's it which you know hasn't been discussed so much it's not actually been abraxane election no sort of bipartisan. sort of credence and respect that people have expressed towards we have ratified. bracks it and so it's not. in a case of that and it's actually sort of you unify and the country to some extent this election has been about something very different it has been about 9 commissioners it has been about housing and health care childcare. i would pick it up on on something that connell said right back at the sort of that on so the island's pretty unique in that this traditionally been no. swing towards the left or right in from election to election but with the shin fein on the rise is is that about to change and will left now become a mainstream political force in irish politics one might argue that should faine wyler spaces lots of left to any political policies a it's not actually a left wing party it's primarily a nationalist party whose ultimate goal is you know if you are and anything else is . really it's interested in a very good left wing policy but it's it's no it's. kind of an ideological or doctrinaire left 'd wing party it's got to be quite a pragmatic part we could make a comparison to actually feel whole some of the party in the 1930 s. which came in at a time when everybody was scared but there were kind of people talking about you know who have they still the cones. under there under their coats. and what it did it was hidden by the radical social program. and so in many ways shouldn't they might be a replica of people isn't thirty's which would be a pragmatic progressive but not ideological in any way and so in. we might be seen move to a left right. but it actually could be a continuance of a crowd of pragmatic parties which is i think a lot of people seem to be afraid of very if they were to get into government shouldn't be quite as many people here and they certainly won't be as good as some of the. dogma. is it too early to write off feet ago electrically now well i think they're going to have a bad time in this election but i mean they would they will come back i mean they're there is. based stammer and on they're still quite popular with the with the middle classes. as i say they're going to have a bad time they have been in government for 9 years and there's a lot of still a lot of problems that have had the health system under housing and so on and well i don't really expect the incoming government to do to perform much better than the outgoing want but just get tired of government after 9 years and. decide to take a risk on the on the opposition so this is this is electoral fatigue where new or fatigue with the with the incoming incumbent government it's nothing to do with the politics. well it's you know the sinn fein in particular have some really excellent spokespersons and there's a. member called a peer starting from tony gall in the northwest who is a very clever and very good eloquent speaker on taxation and other such issues and he's. very impressive also a gentleman called owen o'brien who's based in dublin who has been very vocal on housing and has even written a book about the housing shortage and he's a very articulate spokesperson as well mary lou mcdonald the party leader is also very very eloquent and very good performer on television so. their talent bank on the other side of the house isn't that it isn't about ok great so she does one of the research and fein are doing so well connell are we going to get a minute and a half left on the program as you said briggs it hasn't been much of an issue in this election campaign but ireland's political and economic significance is about to change dramatically now isn't it with it being the sole english speaking bridge between the e.u. of north america. yes for sure and it's very interesting not relationship generally the kind of those island tack more to europe or does it look more to the united states and an islander sometimes between those 2 things but it also has a very prominent nation ship with with the u.k. and that sort of anglo irish relations that you know have been a huge part of the country's history and a part of its ongoing identity to a degree the interaction between these islands as as we say so it's going to be very interesting to see how that pans out and i think that you know it's i also do appreciate that it's come becoming more of a left right if it does become more left right politics i do i do agree with the point made earlier that actually you know sinn fein probably probably similar to the s.n.p. uses left wing rhetoric now and then to become popular and actually becomes quite realist when they're in government as they've proven in and the north so it's going to be very interesting to see if that left right normalcy actually develops in our judgment we will find out in time many thanks indeed to all of you for being with us o'malley deck of the braden and connell pop and thank you for watching doesn't get you can see the program again at any time just by going to our website you'll find that at al-jazeera dot com for further discussion about islands joined us on our facebook page you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story and you can join this conversation on twitter handle at a.j. inside story from a avery and finnegan and the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us we'll see you again i thought island. the race for the white house has begun. to see 4 states have their say on their wants to face donald trump the next i'm. sure to ask you to continue coverage of the fast to the 2020 u.s. election. only to see. the dissolute mother waits on the border between ukraine and russian occupied crimea. for news of her missing son. numerous young 3 men have disappeared following her arrest these disappeared other victims of a crackdown on the top population of crimea by russia since its occupation in 2014 . before the invasion of 2014 crimea was a part of another country ukraine really formed when the soviet union broke up into separate states but many russians including the president of the emir putin were unhappy with this. russian is determined to keep its alleged abuse of human rights away from public scrutiny. as the only indigenous group still openly opposing the tradition russia sees this muslim minority as a threat. is you 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