Donald trump has always said hell be tough on china and now hes signed a deal with beijing he says it will correct what he calls the mistakes of the past but this is really the beginning of the end of the trade war between the u. S. And china and who stands to gain or lose this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im Richelle Carey after more than 2 years of escalating tariffs and a seemingly never ending trade war the u. S. And china have a grade on a 1st step towards a truce if it holds it could be a boost for u. S. President donald trump internet lection year but who will benefit the most from this initial phase of a broader trade agreement china has promised open up its markets and buy more u. S. Goods and exchange the u. S. Will lift some tariffs yet most will stay in place and thats where the problems start well get to our discussion with our gas shortly 1st mike hanna reports. It was another white house ceremony crowded with have to remember the whole bake this and executives from large u. S. Corporations President Trump hailed the deal as remarkable. Today we take a momentous step one that has never been taken before with china toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade as we signed phase one of the historic trade deal between the United States and china together we are righting the wrongs of the past and delivering a future of Economic Justice and security for American Workers farmers and families and which are the sentiments echoed by chinas signatory to the deal. Draw me down war for. China and the United States with the larger picture in mind have taken a serious approach to our differences and work to manage the inner appropriately reaching the phase one try to greenmount it is good for china for the United States and the world the reality though that this is just an initial deal and many problematic issues in the Us China Relationship remain an address i think that it has moved the needle a little bit with with china and it has made some progress but at the same time i dont think that it achieves the fundamental structural changes that are going to need to happen for us. The u. S. Tech sector in particular to really feel comfortable for President Trumps political opponents insist hes been outsmarted by his chinese counterpart i greatly fear that president xi is laughing at us behind our backs for having given away so little at the expense of American Workers farmers and businesses the administration in order to get a deal at all costs before the 2020 alexion has thrown the American Worker and American Business overboard and theyre going to be the ones left to face the consequences and thats the smiles and celebrations the awareness that this is not an end to the trade war as it is at the stage merely a truth. By kind of aljazeera washington. Lets bring in our guest now in beijing we have dan wayne shes an analyst for the Economist Intelligence units access chinas service and stockholm on skype we have full sickly bucky he is director of the European Center for International Political economy and a former swedish representative to the World Trade Organization at in new york phil caruso hes a member of the Defense Council at the Truman National security project and a former and telethons officer in the u. S. Air force welcome to all of you im going to start with you dan how would you characterize this new deal this new agreement to me this is a very shallow deal is still in is because basically its about china committing to buy more stuff from the u. S. And in a way it is a Mission Impossible because theres no way that china can buy this 200000000000 from the u. S. Without jeopardising is a relationship with other trading partners and at the same time china also said it wont increase domestic physical suppose subsidies and it can achieve this goal in the trade to you at the same time and those 2 things can all be done simultaneously so you any case i think this is actually more wind to the u. S. Side rather than to china ok you have described this as a as a ceasefire more than a deal how so. Well it is a very short and shallow agreement but is also a start of an agreement its moving the opening a process that will actually allow the United States and china to actually work towards a more comprehensive deal and he does since this is a very very american trade agreement in the sense that traditionally u. S. Trade agreement focus on comprehensive outcomes with a balanced and then bishes outcomes in all chapters whereas what we are seeing now hes basically a framework in the world it is of the trade retaliations and against each other fail how would you characterize this this deal this agreement i would say that in the short term its a win for both president xi and President Trump president xi is facing multiple crises at home in hong kong a recent election in Taiwan International criticism over shin jiang and Economic Issues including a corporate debt bubble in a slowdown President Trump is obviously in an Election Year and wants to claim a big win on the economy ad of the election and also to create a cease fire now that would prevent anything happening to the u. S. Economy in the time between now and the election but over the long term i think this is more of a win for china than for the United States and certainly for the American People i think that the deal failed to address some of the most pernicious issues that are affecting the bilateral trade relationship including National Security issues like Cyber Security. And i also think over the long term what the deal is done with the trade wars done more broadly is poor call into question the ability for Chinese Companies to rely on the United States for Agricultural Products and for critical components for technology which is which has created incentives in a focus at home in china to be able to to develop internal domestic supplies of those types of products and to shift trade relationships elsewhere sawyer for example one of the United States largest exports to china historically a lot of those producers you know in the United States while they were sitting idle were losing business to brazil and other countries are providing those products and those trade relationships that have been established will continue to exist and so United States companies and farmers will be less competitive over the long run because china is sourcing those those supplies and components elsewhere so do you think farmers will see it that way that that that this really perhaps doesnt benefit them the way that donald trump has tried to present it in clearly during this trade war their Foreign Ministry has been subsidized because they have been losing phil. Yeah theyve been theyve been subsidized but you know it not not entirely i mean plenty of farmers have been hit very hard by this a lot of Logistics Companies have been hit hard and with the agreement itself it provides 2 years of commitments and even those commitments are called into question vice premier lou said that you know china would only buy what the market demands and there is question over whether or not u. S. Farmers can even provide the supplies that were agreed to in the in the trade deal so dan i want to bring that back to you something that you would also mention that some of these numbers just dont seem realistic so is it that china has no intention of honoring these numbers it has phillis that some of these numbers just couldnt be achieved anyway why agree to Something Like this well and this looks to me more of to drag a bit longer and to buy more time for chinas domestic reform and financial opening up because for china committing to this 200000000000 in exchange for. Letting go of the december tranche of the tariff and having some of the existing tower being halved on that is in a way a very good thing and there is a saying call one bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the air so for china that is committing to something is going to do in the next 2 years and exchange it for something thats happening right now in a way this is a Silver Lining to committing this large number. What does this mean for your americas allies how have they been affected by this trade war between us and china. Well. The truth is that germany in particular but also friends in the u. K. Has been extreme in some bending though so back was an offering concessions left or right to china because they have been anticipating probably much worse outcome for them than they expected you have to remember that on the Chinese Market the biggest the competitors that european have are they are actually all american firms so in that sense actually this could be a crucial blow to european competitiveness i think there is a probably a lot of sigh of relief across the european continent right now theyre realizing that aside from the Financial Services and in and agriculture there is probably not that much that will actually threaten them in the short term but also in the long term we have to remember that china is now playing a very assertive and asking for a concession particularly for example for huawei and 5 g. Companies that they want to actually secure Market Access before they offer any kind of a reciprocal. Conditions or similar as a concession that as they have offered to United States ensure we can probably expect that well china is now taking over agenda on the u. S. You know china relationship and using the phase when the greenman in the world had to basically accept as much concession as possible from europe Going Forward. Phil you have said that there are a lot of things that werent addressed former time out electoral property tech things things like walk away that maybe were they kicking the can down the road but donald trump has tried to say that this this situation between a china and the u. S. Is of National Security interest how so. Well i mean so the United States and many other countries around the world have questions about huawei and its connections to the communist party its requirement to under tinys law to comply with the Chinese Government and Security Services which creates an intelligence issue associated with the technology but as of as far as the deal itself you know the United States and china excluded the discussion of law away from the deal. And separated as a National Security issue along with Cyber Security which is what the United States wanted. But along with the deal though i mean the deal itself it symbolizes i think a broader cease fire and the bilateral issues for the rest of the year and you know president xi in the letter that he wrote to president shop that was read aloud during the signing ceremony yesterday president xi expressed that he expected that the United States would respect you know free markets and Chinese Investment and he and he even specifically cited the collaboration between chinese academics and researchers and in american universities which has been another National Security issue so its clear that although the deal itself doesnt deal with wall way i think its appears that the expectation of the communist party is that the u. S. Is not going to be particularly aggressive against wall way and that in the following months following this deal even though there will be continue to be incremental steps you know that the United States will take with us will probably continue to pressure allies over allowing wall way to install 5 Years Technology in their networks but i think instead of the major blows the larger steps United States has taken over the past couple of years i think were going to see that progress or that pressure start to slow because it tries it and trump does not want to call this deal into question over the next year and dandiya agree with that raid. While in a way i do but at the same time im not so optimistic about the tax future because for example some see the Taiwan Semiconductor manufacturing corporate it is only one i can produced as kind of processing chip that china really needs especially holidays and t. Those Electronic Companies how Communication Companies today as im see is right now under huge pressure from the u. S. To stop supplying to china so although on the surface both sides seem to push the pause button but behind it the made in china 2025 is still going on the Technology Competition is still going on and i just dont see how this can be solved just a way the trade deal hosack i could tell by the look on your face distant a minute ago he wanted to get in on this as well go right ahead now i think 1st of all. It will be somewhat premature as soon that trade deal will be linked to access while away i think it traditionally both china and United StatesNational Security matters very compartmentalized versus. Versus trade interests you have to remember that that link is very very weak i know for attractive chinese and leaders have accused the United States of protectionism but there is a flaw in that argument in the sense that the United States doesnt actually have any manufacturers in this field there is not a single u. S. Manufacturer of a 5 g. M. Tennis so it is probably the case that its more likely that the issue will get a link in the face to 2 wars u. S. Offensive interests for example like in telecom. China still applies a strict for an equity cap on the event that Foreign Investments in telecoms actually old Telecom Companies are state owned im talking about the operators not the manufacturing and also there is a very strict rigorous licensing requirement for ecommerce and the and for Cloud Services so its well more likely that the well china will musically as we quid pro quo that these companies in that wall Data Processing ai and telecoms will be provided access in return for chinese access to the u. S. Markets. Like i want to stick with you and ask you another question the fact that this situation has developed over the last few years and really amped up under the Top Administration between china and the us directly having these talks directly trying to work out this deal what do you think this says about the future for broader trade pacts like things a bit have gone by the wayside t. V. Etc etc is there any implication a broader implication to you. Well 1st of all i think the United States has taken a slightly different trace tragedy compared to the past this is not a typically american trade agreement i would perhaps even call in more asian asian trade agreements tend to focus on process diplomacy and a lets say a step by step approach whereas the u. S. Looking for a grand bargain so in a sense you can say that the United States have returned or turned towards a more asian approach to trade agreements and this is also of course extremely american to list and you could even call it a managed trade the or rather the free trade deal it sets a lot of objectives i think on life will give her an impact from the other commentators i think it is possible to reach out to these targets on the counter purchases simply because you know while china is currently there is a huge demand for especially the ivory Food Products and the 2nd point i think the most important are here is that the United States have taken a really clearly unilateral approach where he has realized that the strategy of relying on allies like for example japan australia canada in order to open up china is just diluting their interest in other words United States have taken a very deliberate stance and saying that they dont need a tepee agreement they can actually go alone and actually working with allies like iraq and other east asian economies along the reins of the chinese border will basically weaken china United States interests because they have to basically accommodate other allies in the room and fill cant can the u. S. Go it alone i mean what about this this radically different approach from donald trump and the fact that this is a bit of it and it is intervening in a way that past president s have not. Yeah so i dont think United States can go it alone and i agree with the point that historically economic and trade issues have been decoupled with National Security and bilateral diplomatic issues over the course of past administrations but i disagree that thats the case of the trumpet ministration i think what the troubled ministration has done and received a lot of criticism for fairly in my view is put everything on the table when the u. S. Took action against z. T. You know a couple of years ago President Trump explicitly relieve that pressure in part due to trade issues in the issue as e. T. Was National Security in nature. But the real issue is you know as far as is the u. S. Ability to to to face the National Security threat with way is its presence overseas and with allies in the u. S. Can go it alone to deal with that problem because the presence of wa and all those countries threatens the u. S. Security military intelligence relationship with those countries so for example the us has threatened to stop sharing intelligence with its allies including in europe if they install a 5 g. Systems and as far as bilateral trade i mean the trouble ministration want to point out of t p p did say that have you that if you had Bilateral Agreements you know in negotiating those agreements is more favorable than being in t p p but the United States has not taken broad base action to replace t p p with a comprehensive series of agreements negotiated a few agreements with key trade trade partners like korea and japan but p. P. P. Was much broader in the pacific with a lot of different partners and so d the United States hasnt replaced c. P. P. Entirely and it remains to be seen whether or not the trumpet ministration has plans to do so so down so down what does this really about i mean it what it is it really about trade is about information what this battle that between donald trump and china what is it really about as you see it. Well right now if we just look at the studio it is actually very hard to figure out what to donald trump wants from china because in a way it looks like it is almost a sanction to china by forcing him to buy so much stuff from the u. S. But at the same time i would also make china the largest the client for a lot of the u. S. Domestic Industries Manufacturing energy agricultural goods and a we all know that as the single largest customer actually have a lot of say over suppliers and over time this is not a good trade deal for even the United States and this certainly cannot be the ground for our larger or larger isco trade deal especially one involves other countries because you know Donald Trumps framework its a basically a 0 sum game forced china to sign this by jeopardizing the interest of the u. S. Allies and theres also political struggle here as well because it will be complicated by chinas relation with taiwan or with hong kong and also possibly with iran so this is a competition not just between trade off between from a finance technology its also about the political power globally the markets want that thrilled about it they seem to be at 1st but then it seemed that a lot of the rhetoric that donald trump had didnt actually match what was in the devil is in the details that the market wasnt that excited about this what do you think this is really about aside from the fact that United States have decided to go on my own its also marks an end to the multilateral trading system meaning that its not the rules answer to a dispute on that or on the low end of the World Trade Organization thats going to solve the matter is Going Forward everything is up for negotiation and basically its all of our brief program were moving towards regularly as well as a more transactional environment and so in that sense you know this might have. In the United States last chance to deal with the trying to problem whether it was the right deal that was struck or not we will say perhaps for the few years down the line but the big picture here is also i think that china is also very corner of this so its a start very hard on chinas macroeconomics but also in terms of selfconfidence its has found itself very much cornered we have no real allies. Or what may might that have been Donald Trumps point. Ah you have no expertise to figure out what the whole trump thanks yes i think youre just reading it my my expertise is in trade and not necessarily psychology or World Leaders but i think if you look at what its really negotiators were thinking i think they were very much looking into this might be the last chance saloon as far as United States having some kind of an average and also you have to remember that all these tit for tat that we have seen over the past year or is that you dont build out this much leverage without knowing tension of using it it has to have an outlet so im not surprised that the us struck and im not mercer prize that its a very light weight agreement they have to remember at a Free Trade Agreement that usually runs in a 1000 plus pages and were looking at a less than 180 of the manics is in this completion of the document and so therefore the real question is whats the next step whats phase 2 going to be along and thats where to they jails are going to be really crucial and im sure we will have this discussion again when phase 2 comes out and how sick i will not again ask you to explain Donald Trumps thinking thank you all for the conversation appreciate it very much dan weighing ha sickly lucky me and phil korea south bank you and thank you for watching the program you can join us again any time visit our website aljazeera dot com for further discussion on our Facebook Page facebook dot com forward slash a. 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