Hello im Barbara Starr youre watching aljazeera live from london also coming up a ukrainian plane crashes moments after takeoff from irans capital tehran killing all 176 people on board. These allegations are untrue and i should have never been arrested in the 1st place this sounds former chief makes his 1st public appearance since skipping bail in japan ahead of his trial on allegations of financial misconduct. Hello thank you for joining us the u. S. President says iran appears to be standing down after it launched a series of missiles on american bases in iraq the attacks are in response to the u. S. Killing of a rainy and general costs and soon the money donald trump flanked by his Vice President secretaries of state and defense as well as military leaders warned iran that u. S. Military missiles were big and powerful and accurate and lethal he said he would be imposing further economic sanctions on tehran iran appears to be standing down which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world no american or iraqi lives were lost. Because of the precautions taken the dispersal of forces and an Early Warning system that worked very well as we continue to evaluate options in response to a rate in aggression the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian Regime these powerful sanctions will remain until iran changes its behavior lets get more now from washington john hendren joins us live so john it was a quiet a far ranging speech there what more did trump have to say well the president say started out by saying that as long as he was president of the United States iran would not have a Nuclear Weapon but it was generally a conciliatory talk in which the president despite some harsh rhetoric did not threaten to retaliate against iran again in fact suggested that the Nuclear Agreement that the u. S. Had pulled out from would need to be reworked and that the other parties to that agreement would also need to pull out of it so that they could renegotiate a new one and that was actually something that a lot of people took as a hopeful sign it appears to be a point from which the United States and iran could go one of 2 ways they can either go toward more conflict but it really sounds as if that is not what happened around cause no casualties in those strikes which mustve involved some perception of weaponry there and the United States is not threatening to retaliate so at this point it appears to be in the realm of diplomacy but we have been here before. And john Trump Administration officials have actually been briefing us congress on fight his assassination of castes and soon the money went away expecting some reaction. It will be very soon just now 100. 00 senators walked into the full briefing of the senate and everything is being carried out by the administrations top Foreign Policy and military officials and includes gina haskell the cia director mike pompei oh the secretary of state mark milley the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and mark esper the defense secretary all of them are going to present the evidence that they had that constant sulaimani was posing an immediate threat to the lives of americans according to esper that is within days he was threatening american lives and they are expected to lay out the evidence they have but so far democrats leading into this meeting has said that they are unconvinced Chuck Schumer the Senate Democratic leader said the American People do not want to wage war with iran and the president does not have the authority to to launch one. There are also concerned democrats in congress that all of these military actions are being carried out not with new Congressional Authority but based 182001 authorization of military force the Congress Wants the president to come back and ask them for permission for any military action that could involve iran and the democrats are saying that 2001 agreement isnt enough the interesting to see what reaction that does come out of congress when those briefings are done for the moment thank you. Irans president says the real resents for solomon is assassination will include seeing the u. S. Kicked out of the middle east. Yes says soleimani as easy a motto all day cuz of the hand of our dia soleimani and you saw his revered hand me his body in videos and pictures the revenge for this is to force america out of this region the real revenge in the ultimate response by regional nations is when america is expelled from this region and its head of aggression its counsel for reeva. By joins us live now from the uranium capital tehran a. Supreme leader of the speaking. That the missile strikes were a slap in the face for the u. S. What else. Will the Supreme Leader tell us how many the speech was carried live which is unusual its usually recorded and then typed on state t. V. So but this is following the missile strikes and people wanted to hear from him he said that iran was well equipped to deal with the bullies of the world but required a more than just a military response to deal with the United States he said that a group a Smaller Group of people can defeat a larger group and very much he used fear logical references and thats very important in iran in terms of how they view themselves very much they see themselves as the underdog taking on this great evil but he also praised general cos and for the money who was his friend he said that he was a brave and wise man he said that he was brave not just only militarily but also politically he was non partisan and thats been reflected in terms of how many people have come out onto the streets after his assassination to join this funeral procession but also how its united the different political factions here in iran in terms of a condemnation over his assassination and also asking for revenge but he said ultimately that the United States should leave the region. As a President Trump also announced a further punishing economic sanctions on iran iran of course a country that is already bearing the weight of economic sanctions so what reaction has there been to that so far. Well wrong had sanctions since president from unilaterally took the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018. The oil sector has sanctions on it the Banking Sector this office of the Supreme LeaderAyatollah Khomeini and also the foreign minister has sanctions on him right now people will be looking at the United States and say what else is left to sanction the economy has already suffered greatly theres been increasing inflation a rise in inflation but right now. People were kind of expecting get especially after recent tensions but i just want to pick up on some of the things that President Donald Trump said he said looks like iran is standing down but thats not the feeling that were getting here from from inside iran that in fact the language has still been very strong president rouhani was speaking and he said that if the United States was to react there will be a response from the forces a crushing response but also President Donald Trump said that iran should have been thankful the United States gave them 150000000000. 00 but in fact that money was seized iranian money over decades of sanctions so that was the United States just returning irans money that they had seized over 4 decades i said big with the latest from the rain in capital tehran now said thank you. Meanwhile satellite images have been released showing the extent of damage caused to one of the u. S. Air bases with the rain and missiles struck in the early hours of wednesday morning several facilities on the last side the base including aircraft hangars appears have sustained significant damage in the attacks u. S. President trump said the strikes have not harmed any u. S. Troops stationed there probably the son has more now on those strikes. This is irans promised response to the u. S. Assassination of top iranian general Hossam SoleimaniBallistic Missiles soaring into the night sky there target an Iraqi Military base housing thousands of u. S. Soldiers iranians are taking the crowd there to hit back directly they wouldnt even leave their proxies to deliver the message that their american. Kind of saving faith order for them because killing soleimani is its an insult from the americans to iranian establishment to iranian a state as all and therefore i think youre ronnie and has to retaliate the question is whether that military will be used to retaliate against these attacks u. S. Troops are based at the alena sardi a base in iraq one of 2 talking its hit by missiles ever since president scuttled the. There has been to. Get an escalation and that you know either side can afford to give in because i look weak the leaders of both sides are committed to this escalation and its hard to see how it out you know where they are i dont want the u. S. Says its killing of cars some sort of money in an air strike was in response to an attack in iraq in which a u. S. Contractor died and for which the u. S. Blames iran and iran huge crowds have been in mourning. And demanding revenge for some of these death and immediate diplomatic solution to the crisis seems unlikely. Both sides have to be rolling through gaijin diplomacy and right now i fear that i do not see that i do not see either side the iranian or the american willing to do the things necessary to engage in diplomacy. Iran wants u. S. Forces to power minutely leave the gulf region and it says there will be a harsh response to any further u. S. Retaliation rob matheson aljazeera. Irans foreign minister jens that he feels emphasize that tehrans the next steps will depend on the reaction from the u. S. People said very clearly that if the United States takes any further action iran viewed respond accordingly and we would respond in a very harsh way but proportionately very we did not start this process of escalation the United States raged an economic war against iran the United States has to come to its senses the presence of iranian people in the streets of many cities unprecedented in the history europe can play a useful role by informing the United States of the serious error in their analysis that they should stop listening to clowns that they should base their policy based on realities and not some evolutions of some clowns who have ambitions or spread theres more news ahead here on aljazeera including calls for urgent cease fire in libya turkey and russia want to see peace by some of the. Indian workers take their anger to the streets tens of thousands strike of a Government Economic policies. Hello again its good to have you back what here across western parts of africa were still watching the remnants of blake this was a cycle own that made landfall but were still going to be seeing some very heavy rain across much of the region there the clouds right there and the rain is going to continue as we go towards thursday as well all the way down towards the by now the system is leaking up with a cold front this is a cold front right here that is going to continue to push its way a little bit more towards the east and with it were going to be seeing some very gusty winds over the next few days so here on friday the fronts going to be pushing through adelaide pushing across tasmania as well it will bring the temperatures down but were going to see some very windy conditions across much of this area and for sydney here is your 3 day forecast as we go into the weekend we do expect to see those temperatures starting to rise of course the smoke and the haze is still a problem but it will be the winds as we go into saturday that of course we dont need anymore winds for the bushfires here cross parts of japan though a big system is making its way here towards specific things will get better over the next few days in terms of the rain but we do expect to see those temperatures beginning to come down so here on thursday tokyo were going to give you 15 degrees there but as we go towards friday a little bit cooler with some rain in the forecast and over here towards china we do expect to see some rain all the way down to spar so hong kong with a temperature of 22. 00. But. The story of the british italian and experiencing life comes up in a Palestinian Refugee camp in the its. Coming face to face with the daily lives of its residents some of whom have lived there for 70 years. Has been there a few jomo so desire its not been on the show 7 days in beirut. On aljazeera. Youre the the earth. Time after reminder of the top stories on aljazeera u. S. President donald trump has called for a greater involvement from nato in the middle east following irans attacks on american bases in iraq trouble speaking several hours after iran launched more than a dozen missiles at the bases retaliation for the killing of leading military figure customs. And other news a Ukrainian International airliner has crashed in iran killing all 176 people on board the boeing 737 aircraft went down shortly after takeoff from the capital tehran the crash isnt being linked to current tensions in the region the airline described the plane as one of its best and the pilots among its most experienced neve barker has more. The passengers and crew a flight p. S. 752 didnt stand a chance. Minutes after takeoff the Ukraine InternationalAirlines Flight from tehran to kiev went down in the city suburb recovery teams pick 3 whats left of the plane and peoples lives. Most of the dead are rainy and cold and 60 canadians were also killed many reportedly students returning from break asian. The boeing 737800 was less than 4 years old and had been recently serviced. Video and social media shows a light hurtling to the ground and then a fireball. Iranian Officials Say there was no distress call. But fortunately it didnt question the reason into area but the wreckage has scattered around the gardens of villas within a large radius nobody has divided. A spill airport in kiev the arrivals board bears the grim news. This mother and father had been waiting for their son to arrive missing so someone probably knew my son is a senior Flight Attendant my daughter called at 615 this morning to say that in the us they were reporting that a plane had crashed a Ukrainian International airlines plane. A makeshift memorial now stands in the lobby of the airport at least 11 ukrainians died in the crash most of them crew members. Sweden also lost several nationals on the flight its joint ukraine and canada in calling for a full investigation ukraines now canceled all flights over iran the countrys embassy in tehran initially blamed engine failure for the crash later remove the statement doors useful widely approaching we made our decision to suspend all the activities of all you creating ideation companies in iranian airspace until the causes of this tragedy become clear. The crash comes amid heightened tensions across the region following a u. S. Drone strike that killed top iranian general has money in a sign of worsening ties irans Civil Aviation authority says it will not give the black box flight recorder to u. S. Plane make a boeing for analysis its not clear which country iran will send the box to. The safety audit and it had no accidents whatsoever so there they really do theres a very very good airlines but i do believe it will be mechanical or possibly it may possibly be a terrorist act its too hard to tell at this stage. The crash is a major setback for boeing but struggled to regain trust after the grounding of its 737 monks and craft following 2 fatal and crashes within 5 months. The boeing 737 is one of the most popular aircraft in the sky with a good Safety Record investigators must now determine how and why so many lives ended here. Russian president Vladimir Putin is in turkey where he has met president threat of type at the heart of the leaders have called for a cease fire in libya to be implemented by sunday they issued a joint statement saying that they wanted stability and the normalising of daily life in tripoli and other cities and could raise the plane troops to support the internationally recognized government in tripoli in their fight against the warlord after the russian and Turkish Foreign ministers also called for an end to hostilities. I want to emphasize the appeal of the russian and turkish president s addressing all sides of the conflict in libya to stop calm but actions immediately to declare a cease fire forbid lights on the january 12th. Well the joint statement was issued shortly after the turkish and russian president s met to inaugurate a pipeline in istanbul its known as turks stream and then allows russia to sell more gas to europe bypassing ukraine seen emco segro is in istanbul she says the pipeline is one of many areas of cooperation between turkey and russia. The spite of violates roll prices back in 2015 after turkey shots on the russian fighter jet white southern border and this project was halted and back in 2172. 00 leaders decided to build this project again and this is the 2nd direct pipeline carrying gas from russia to turkey and it is seen as a seal of unbreakable turkey and russia relations and the 2 in the name text stream actually was given by the russian president Vladimir Putin both leaders are gone and put in see this project the spy line as a connection between the 2 countries not only for providing Security Energy natural gas from a rush out to europe but also as a secure line of political relations Turkey Russia relations are not only based on and are just supplies or economic relations as you know 2 countries have been allied in the region when it comes to syria when it comes to iraq they are actually keeping the different forms in libya and turkey supports the u. N. Recognized government d. N. A. It rush hour supports the house certainly for health start in libya but it seems to leaders discussed libya the tension in iraq the humanitarian condition it and turkey and russia are also expected to provide mady ation for libya as well. A car bomb has killed at least 4 people in somalias capital mogadishu it exploded at the 1st security checkpoint leading into the area housing the Parliament President ial palace and the interior ministry another 6 people were injured the Armed Group Alshabaab claimed responsibility for the attack last week it carried out another bombing in the capital killing 90 people. Tokyo prosecutors say claims made by miss and former chief that they conspired with the car company to remove him its leadership are false and unacceptable call us go and made the claims during a 2 and a half Hour Press Conference in beirut where he maintained that he is innocent on the charges of financial misconduct against him xina holder is in beirut with more. Its his 1st public appearance since he jumped bail and escaped from japan the former nissan and renault chief carlos gone arrived in the lebanese capital beirut over a week ago his case has Brought International attention many were waiting for the businessman to disclose details of how he reached his country of origin but gone who is facing trial in japan on financial misconduct charges used a News Conference to reiterate his innocence it is important for me to emphasize that im not the above the law and i welcome the opportunity for the truth to come out and to have my name been ticketed and my reputation restored. Not escape justice. Justice. Political persecution gone who was detained a number of times in japan was under strict house arrest when he fled he says he did so because he didnt believe he would get a fair trial japans judicial system has been criticized by human Rights Groups gone who holds lebanese brazilian and french passports says conditions during his detention were harsh and he was bound to access to lawyers and his family hes believed to have arrived in beirut via istanbul on a private jet turkish media released video they say show him being transferred by vehicle to a 2nd jet turkish authorities have made arrests and International Fugitive but Carlos Vaughn is not being treated as a criminal by lebanons or sorties they say he entered the country illegally the caretaker Justice MinisterAlbury Sarhan conferred levanon received the interpol red notice and would take the necessary steps but at the same time he stressed lebanon and japan dont have an extradition treaty gone has been summoned for questioning by lebanon state prosecutor and japans ambassador to lebanon asked for more cooperation but it seems tokyo officials have few options even if the extradition treaty exists the decision to hand over someone is in the hands of the lebanese authorities and they still need to question japan has also issued an arrest warrant for glistens lebanese wife for giving false testimony but gone is a man who has friends in high places and believed to enjoy political cover. I am proud to be bunnies. And lebanon is the only country in the world that stood by my side the businessman turned fugitive doesnt hide his confidence and his words hes ready to stay a long time in lebanon. Paid a lot. Millions of workers in india are on strike protesting against the governments economic policies the Mass Movement follows an increase in the number of farmers who have killed themselves because of financial debt and now many in the state of punjab are calling on the government to act so raman reports now from bob vanguard infringe on. These farmers are singing for their rights theyre just some of the many tens of thousands who are protesting across india on wednesday against what they say is government inaction towards the farming industry. And their leaders have a clear message for the government not the time we have to demand a fair and profitable price for all farm produce it should be bought on time by the market and then theres no reason for the farmers to convert to say. Experts say at least fall farmers commit suicide across the country each day. Those they leave behind like hunt broke or are forced to deal with the financial problems that drove them to suicide. And she tied these up shes constantly reminded of the family shes lost 3 generations of farmers who kill themselves over a crippling debt her father in law husband and last september her son had a really my son would often say. What are we going to do about it i told him not to worry he was a child he was only 19 and my only son he kept saying why did the government not help People Like Us they only had the powerful and the rich she shows me the bills the pesticides and seeds as well as the amount due for fields they rented unemployment is so high one senior academic and all thought of the farming crisis says successive governments have failed to offer the Farming Community viable alternatives youll find that the source of the income has not been coming up where you can find that. Are going to go to other operations which are even if those operations are available they are not of them in there to that extent where you can find the attraction and the shift the from the farming who are going to going to vocal versions. The government says its launched a dish it is to help farmers including easing interest on their loads and set up missions for Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture but farmer say thats done little to help farmers have put job often stop work to protest about their financial woes but nothing on the scale one of the main highways has been blocked in the state and theyre hoping that many more people will join them on this day of action in punjab and across india one scholar said it reminds him of the eightys and ninetys in the United States when distressed farmers there also decided to strike and then started to elect people from their own community as lawmakers as the decades unfolded. But even though to the us president s the problems of you really to say well intensified demonstrations like this if you delhi fails to address their concerns so hill robert aljazeera probably got the job. British Prime MinisterBoris Johnson has met with the new leader of the European Commission in downing street to begin discussing a post of brecks it trade deal or so have on their lane says access to the e. U. Market after breaks it will only be granted with major compromises britain is due to leave the block on the 31st of january and negotiations for a new economic relationship will begin almost immediately but under lane says the negotiations on a 4 trade deal will not be complete in one year the more divergence there is the more distant the partnership will be and without an extension of the transition period beyond 2020 you cannot x. Expect to agree on every single aspect of our new partnership we will have to prioritise spains socialist leader pedrosa inches has been sworn in as Prime Minister a day after narrowly securing parliamentary backing for the countrys 1st Coalition Government in decades sanchez took his oath of office before spains King Philippe in a brief ceremony at this as well a palace he is expected to announce his cabinet next week and it will include members from his Coalition Partners the anti austerity we need us for their muscles went. And the reminder of the top stories on aljazeera us President Donald Trump says iran appears to be standing down following its attacks on american bases in iraq from call for a greater involvement from nato in the middle east and said he would be imposing greater economic sanctions on iran. Iran appears to be standing down which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world no american or iraqi lives were lost because of the precautions taken the dispersal of forces and an Early Warning system that worked very well as we continue to evaluate options in response to rein in aggression the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian Regime these powerful saying shoes will remain until around changes its behavior a trump for speaking just hours after iran launched a series of missile attacks on bases in iraq hosting u. S. And Coalition Troops no one was injured in the attacks which iran said was retaliation for the killing of senior military figure costs and soon the money irans Supreme Leader called the attacks a slap in the face for the u. S. Also in iran a ukrainian passenger plane has crashed moments after takeoff all 176 people on board were killed the crash isnt being linked to tensions in the region. Russian president Vladimir Putin has met his turkish counterpart today to type at the one in is the bowl where they have called for a cease fire in libya they issued a joint statement saying that they wanted stability and the normalizing of daily life. Foreman is some boss carlos ghosn has spoken publicly for the 1st time since fleeing house arrest in japan he says prosecutors in tokyo conspired with the car company that havent removed from its leadership claims that japanese lawyers have described as false and that acceptable news hour in half an hour counting the cost is the next play. Taiwans president seeks a 2nd time placing hancock you know advocates restoring closer ties with china will the selection move the island closer to the mainland who continue to resist beijings push the unification taiwans 20 trying to prevent selection on aljazeera. Hello im Adrian Finnigan the and this is counting the cost our aljazeera youll we can look at the world a business and economics this week 2020 we pick through what could be the heart geo political and cio economic topics of the year from the most important election in the free world will President Trump wind another term up on what does that mean for trade wars in dispute could the world come together to tackle Global Warming and globalization and will we see more people on the streets of it can see but wealth is unequally spread across society the International Monetary funds new managing direct crystal a doubt hell give a has describe the Global Outlook as precarious trade tensions could copped Global Economic growth by nort point 8 percent or 700000000000. 00 now thats roughly the size of the swiss economy central bankers of been pretty clear that any slowdown this year would require governments to step in with stimulus packages wipe welp because Monetary Policy that is Interest Rates and quantitative easing theres that the limits of what can be achieved at there are so many variables the u. S. Selection a lack of leadership as the United States steps back on the world stage and Climate Change and if 29 teen is anything to go by will seem more protests over a stair as he of the economic model that has led to wage growth stagnation over the last few decades weve got together a panel of experts to cost an over the year ahead and to give us some insights as to what to expect joining us here in doha i park on whos senior director of Asset Management to our right investment bank. Condo whos the residence professor at Northwestern University at castle and alas in america analyst and from london joining us is charles heck a jones is a sydney apart the at control risks gentlemen welcome to you all charles lets begin with you the u. S. Election of course is going to be keenly watched thats an understatement weve had a president but show little regard for the liberal world order attacking allies the World Trade Organization hes demoted the the reassuring of industry whichever way you look at it how is that going to change the way the world works in 2020 you know age and absolutely right people are going to be watching the u. S. Campaign more closely than ever and its probably one of the more important president ial campaigns in recent memory and before we even know the final candid it pairing the very fact that theres a president ial campaign in United States next year runs the risk of changing geopolitics a little bit there are a few things that were watching particularly carefully number one of course is the relationship between the United States and china the u. S. Economy is fragile and facing a bit of a slowdown and you think that that might force the president s hand to sign some sort of at least preliminary trade deal with china the risk there though is that the deal could be superficial and wont hold up to scrutiny if the president doesnt sign a trade deal with china and the trade conflict escalates of that presents another set of both economic and Political Risk and the other thing that the president has to be careful about in the coming year is that everyone understands that during a campaign the appetite for military conflict is incredibly low and that may encourage some other actors to take a. Action around the world and and understand that the United States may not respond so were looking at north korea what if north korea starts its missile Testing Program again and sort of pushes the geopolitical envoy lope a little bit knowing that theres not that much the president may be able to do in a Campaign Season same thing in iran and perhaps iran may consider some sort of tactical military activity in the gulf of with the understanding that the United States will have its hands tied in terms of how strongly it can respond militarily during the Campaign Season. For most of 2019 there was tension in the middle east when isnt there but it seemed to be much higher this year it ratcheted up throughout the year then we had those attacks on the Oil Facilities in saudi arabia and suddenly. Everythings much quieter so globally when you have nations that have had disputes with each other. Resolutions which are sustainable are generally those which involve which which where the rest of the solution actually comes from the players involved there are some cases where external help or arbitration can provide a solution but those are generally the exceptions so if the players involved in a dispute are the ones that are finding a resolution and are finding their way through whatever disputes they have thats probably a point to a more meaningful and more sustainable solution are you talking about the gulf crisis in particular here with with the blockading of cancer or are you talking about that the world of religion in general you know you can talk about the gulf crisis you can talk about issues of the iran. So i think i think if the players in the region who have more to gain or lose depending on which directions things go in if theyre the ones in control of the conversation you probably have a more sustainable solution so they dont need trump were going to have to sort extent hes the sidelight is hes out of hes out of their calculations. I think you can no country can ever have the largest country in the most powerful country in the world out of the calculations but i think if youre trying to negotiate and find a solution between your neighbors its probably helpful if youre talking to each other directly then into an intermediary and thats whats happening as far as the blockade of cancer is concerned as well in that seems to be some sort of for we have of course the the gulf cup the football tournament here in cast on all of the blockading nations participated and that seemed to go pretty well it did i mean to incent since june 17th when the blockade began thats probably the most significant step where you had a final. In the where saudi in bahrain were playing and thats thats pretty newsworthy just by itself so you know clearly thats an interesting and positive development but i think for there to be movement on the blockade weve had several false dawns before i think all the countries which are against that there need to be united in seeking in wanting to move forward so thats important it doesnt seem to be the case at the moment or of the trumpet ministrations through its weight behind the opposition in venezuela in 2019 what can we expect in 2020 well 1st that. I think that things will continue the same for a while so we can wait for a serious or far move in terms of male c. H. And rather than pushing the for regime change so i think thats going to take longer that the u. S. Administration really thought in fact the economists unit Intelligence Unit changes forecast from mother losing power to mother are staying in power and i think thats going to be true for the next few months at least but i think women are in the context of latin america is in terms of comics and politics is rather irrelevant now were talking about there are 3 Major Economies which are mexico or brazil. Will in argentina are facing very difficult a very difficult challenge 1st of all those economies which failed in the past 20 years to reform really to restructure really are still very dependent on commodities and in the face of a fragile International Economy this fragility is going to start showing up the economy that you prize has not really move and in many cases come of the key ones have fallen down for example cooper that affects a lot of chile chile on the other hand which was the really the engine of growth for Latino America is now facing huge economic political true moyles which means that the forecast for growth of chile is dire saw Latino America is. In a crossroad at the moment you know has a new left wing press in from and theres a write. In from on this is want to have the room of maneuver their nest or christmas have theres nobody now like charles did in its time in his time to buy the bonds from chile they are from argentina they have huge debt and they will probably have to go to the i. M. F. Again and this is going to be very unpopular because that goes against all the promises he made to accompany him in brazil and also not has failed to reduce significant the deficit and is facing huge problems with the pension and thats not moving either and hes starting to see his base to erode so that with their big challenges ahead for latin america. There are you know you dont paint a very rosy picture lets go back to the london and charles 2019 as we saw street protests around the world we were talking about what was happening in chile and elsewhere in latin america its hard to think of a time. The has been such universal outrage at the political classes of a Climate Change of inequality over Wealth Distribution how is that going to play out in 2020 your absolute learoyd i mean i think you have to cast your mind probably all the way back to the 1960. Yes to see a time when almost the entire world was convulsed with social unrest driven by a sort of social and economic and political causes and while all of the social unrest weve seen around the world this year has had different triggers most of the underlying themes are exactly that as you pointed out its Climate Change its income inequality its creeping authoritarianism around the world and all kinds of social and political challenges. For 2020 v. Risks are are several 1st that this will continue and will worsen and then we also think for companies we think that theres a chance that theres going to be a certain amount of contagion and that these issues will move primarily out of the political arena most of these activities have been aimed at governments but there is a risk in 2020 that this sort of social unrest and civil unrest will be aimed in the commercial sphere and that companies are going to have to get on top of their games and ahead of the issues when it comes to. Slowing or acknowledging or dealing with Climate Control or in lets say gender representation on boards of directors or indeed in how they compensate their most Senior Executives and their most junior executives but companies are being forced to take stances on issues like gun control and so we think that theres a serious. Possibility that companies will become political actors in these spheres and 2020 as well its fascinating its sounds also expensive is that going to affect the bottom line and how does that sort of change if you like in in it as youd in direction go down with with shareholders. You know youre right theres always a bit of a tradeoff and calculations that ideally need to be made in advance about what the costs of understanding Political Trends and social trends are and i think i would argue that the costs of misunderstanding or misreading the social winds of 2020 will be much more expensive to companies theyre anticipating and getting ahead of events or getting ahead of protest movements we have seen a fair share of protests to win the of social change blowing through the middle east in places like lebanon and iraq. What about the situation in lebanon right now theres a big deadline for the country coming up in march when it is expected to repay its debt is it is going to miss that deadline thats a 1000000000. 00 question actually 1200000000 to be precise. Yes the so clearly lebanon has the ability to pay the question is about the willingness if you look at their gold and Foreign Exchange reserves they are more than 45000000000. 00 so clearly they do have resources if you look at the value of all outstanding sovereign debt not just the one that thats a maturing in in march of this year its about 28000000000. 00 now the interesting thing is theres been discussions about what their options are should they simply default should they do a heck of it should they just they is normal. 20 of that 28000000000. 00 is actually held by domestic banks and its held within the country so youre not going to be hurting the foreign investor youre going to be hurting yourself so it would make a lot of sense for lebanon to actually make the payments so that they dont. Inflict further damage on themselves its easy politically to say oh dont worry lets not repay the foreigners the problem is the Banking Sector who owns a lot of that 20000000000 would would have significant problems and just generally the last last resort for a government is to default on sovereign debt you do that and youre closed for Capital Markets for a long long time you make repayments you then have the leave the door open that at some time in the future you may actually go back and tap the bond markets again and raise more money but that would that door would be closed if they were to do a default so from our perspective it makes a lot of sense for them to make that repayment they have the resources lets see what they do and you mentioned the new leader in argentina as well as to extent is is there a similarity between argentina and whats going on in lebanon now how will he balance the budget how will he deal with these calls the street protests at the end into a sturdy well its i dont think theres going to be an end of austerity this by the restoring that he used during the campaign i mean no politician goes to the i. M. F. For their own will it has a political cost so when our mockery the British Press and went to i. M. S. He had delayed for some of the reforms he had to do early on the early stage and he had to pay that and its going to be the same with from on this difference this time with a pedo needs more in power contd to wynette or krishna or you really came to power is that in that time the venezuelan government was very wealthy and they bought the bonds so argentina didnt have to go to the i. M. F. Argentina now will have to go after the situation there of National Council very weak they will have to go and that is. A very big challenge because when you go come to power promising that you want to do that and then you end up doing that thats going to be the big problem well unless we see a big bailout from china which i really doubt. I think the positive stories in latin america is more its going to be in the near future mexico despite the rhetorical of the anti u. S. Rhetorical of the Mexican Government i think theyre very near to sign a trade agreement a renewed trade agreement with kind of in the United States and thats going to be a huge impulse to mexico a lot of the business i actually am very pessimistic with regards to the will with china and i think the United States in that case a lot of the companies are pushing the administration to to sign the deal to mexico and start moving some of their operations into mexico in this case so i think mexico in terms of my perspective for 20 years 2020 has a more positive outlook all it will depend on how much Lopez Obrador managed to reconcile between his restoring and the reality of the economy but i am more more in the south and the continent brazil argentina and others have a much different will have a much more difficult Time Next Year i want to talk some more about china in just a moment but but 1st charles lets turn our attention to the Global Economy the risk of recession in 2020 is that off the table now or are we expecting a slowdown. Well you know for our political and Economic Forecasting we work with a Company CalledOxford Economics and oxford tells us that the risks of a potential recession in 2020 are rising but that is not the most likely scenario and so so far we do not forecast a Global Economic recession me that said Global Economic growth next year is going to be sort of in the 2. 5 percent area under 3 percent globally and that is grindingly slow 2019 was one of the slowest growth years since the start of the Global Financial crisis in 2008 and it looks like 2020 will not be much much better we forecast fairly slow growth in the eurozone fairly slow growth and dropping growth from 21000 in the United States and so while recession is not yet on the table it may be you know getting its elbows ready to rest right there. What extent will china be a drag on the Global Economy in 2020 or does that very much depend upon what happens in the trade war trade was clearly critical but also whats also important is chinas ability to to reflate to stimulate their own economy the resources that they have now available are more limited than than previously they several years ago they spent a lot of money and did a fantastic job in not only stimulating their economy but kickstarting some growth globally. Now they do have the ability and theyve been make taking some measures in the last few months particularly as as the trade conflict has has escalated we would assume that that would continue perhaps not quite as powerfully but also saying earlier look you know we have an election come. Up in the u. S. Later this year politically it would be expedient for the u. S. Equity market to be rising in ahead of that for that to happen you need to have some positive outlook for the Global Economy which would suggest that the trade dispute should be deescalating on that basis if 2019 is when china bore the brunt of the of the slowdown they should be from a basis effect some growth in 2020 ger agree with that is there is the trade war deescalating i mean look at how you are talking about how china is extending itself. Economically throughout the world right now while they actually in latin america they are actually retreating and one of the reasons its happened a lot erick is they burned their hands in the case of innisfail or they invested over 25000000000. 00 in the or were enough almost anything have been paid and this was in exchange of oil and the oil supply house. Decreased over the past few years the only people that for example in a smallish pain there are the russians but not the chinese so they lost a lot of mother losing a lot of money in place of venezuela brazil has started to reduce and limit the for investment for china in that country. Lets see what the new government in argentina does but what you can see is china is not as intense in terms of investment as it was or is it is for example in africa so i think in latin america they have less of a your political investment and less of our less of a return and thats probably hitting back home and i totally agree that there have less resources now to go into this breed of investment in the all over the world trying to change your political i think the chinese governmental authorities on the piano have become more savvy business obviously theyre making the investment in political terms and the long run and more to get returns on the on the shorter term or at one final question for the 3 of you here and its on Monetary Policy charles always says. Being a limit to what Monetary Policy can and cant do will governments have to step in in 2020 with fiscal policy you know i think thats a problem on a couple of fronts i mean our view is that Monetary Policy has basically sort of run its course and may not be able to do whats expected of it in the coming year thats thats one problem the 2nd problem is that in the event of a serious recession or in the event of any kind of serious economic shock in 2020 were very concerned that there will be a lack of coordinated policy response around the world i mean were looking at a period where politically and militarily of multilateralism is under enormous pressure and we think that thats probably also the case economically as well and so in 20082009 when you had fairly close and important policy coordination between the Federal Reserve in the bank of england in the European Central bank bank of japan for example were a little bit worried that in the event of serious economic problems in 2020 youre just not going to get that sort of policy alignment whether its Monetary Policy or fiscal policy these Multilateral Solutions are going to be much much harder to come by i thought would you would you agree with that well weve got 15 trillion dollars worth of investment if you like spending from Central Banks globally since the financial crisis began and the result has been effectively been a lost decade. So it hasnt really done a great deal of but from a massive inflation of asset prices which has led to inequality which is that the political problems which is you know so well see where thats actually ended up leading. It has got to the stage where you can only stretch a piece of string that far and we do and in the Central Banks while the Central Banks have been working overtime in cutting in easing Monetary Policy its allowed governments and politicians to basically be asleep at the wheel not putting in the reforms that are needed not making hard decisions about fiscal spending you can own i think the Central Banks i do agree are in the Central Banks have pretty much got to the end of where they can if we need to somehow stimulate us out of this. Growth and this Global Economic slumber then we need going to have to have some spending and more importantly some some reforms and that means we now have to worry about politicians not central bankers ok and who coordinates the politicians i mean the world were living at the moment with which is one of of isolationism if you like moving away from globalization is globalization that well i dont think is there and you know we the things tend to be cycle or if you look at the long history of the things i totally agree with with my colleagues here of of their abuse i would think that to me more as a from the political side the big problem is the erosion of trust theres so much in turn turn out of time people think that governments can do when they for example inject money or wanted to ease into sort of 2 economies but were really wanted to is it does to the rest of society is just generates trust and that trust is simply not there anymore and that i saw it really big problem and challenge for all governments to move to too tight to try to recover that trust from people so even if we get another crisis and governments intervene massively in my view it will have little effect because people just dont trust and if that trust is not there thats the basis of our economy growth in a comic prosperity the fact that people do trust and thats the big challenge ahead well gentlemen to use the old cliche only time will tell i wish you all a happy. Prosperous and healthy new year many thanks indeed for being with us act but cant hide oh look at a condo and childs head and thats it for counting the cost for this week if youd like to comment on anything youve seen you can get in touch with a fagan on twitter use the hash tag a j c a t c when you do or you can drop us a line count of the cost aljazeera dot net is our address and as always theres plenty more for you on live at aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That takes you straight to our page and theyll find individual reports links even entire episodes for you to catch up on but thats it for this 1st edition of counting the cost to 2020 thanks for being with us im adrian for the good for the whole team here and there are by for now the news on aljazeera is next. Violence is power. Tools its the political wild card that counts symmetry shapes world order the structure that is defended at all cost. Each with the support of the people fall through the crushing of their will. 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