A listen what is the proposal of spain for. We meet with global news makers and talk about the stories that matter which is 0. Growing fallout over the killing of iran stopped military leaders Iraqs Parliament votes were expelled foreign troops now President Trump is threatening sanctions against baghdad so what will this mean for the u. S. Presence in iraq and what consequences for the wider region this is inside so. My to go and welcome to the Program Fully back to the middle east is grappling with the United States assassination of qassam some in monny in an extraordinary session on sunday Iraqs Parliament voted to remove foreign troops from the country caretaker Prime Minister idol abdul mahdi says the government is preparing legal and procedural steps to implementing that resolution has provoked an angry response from u. S. President donald trump is threatening what he calls a very big sanctions on iraq if american troops are forced to leave nato ambassadors meanwhile held an urgent meeting on monday to discuss the escalating events the alliance suspended its Training Mission in iraq fearing soldiers could be attacked in reprisal for killing from baghdad Simona Fulton explains what happens next each one of the countries that has troops here in iraq including the u. S. But also other countries like the u. K. And france they have their own agreements with the Iraqi Government that govern the presence of these troops and those agreements to pollute exactly how is the how these agreements have to be terminated what happened was that parliament passed a decision not a law calling on the government to draft legislation to expel foreign troops now what would have to happen next is that the government would actually have to draw up a bill that bill would have to be sent back to parliament to be discussed and to be voted on the thing that. Complicate this further is that the government is currently in a caretaker role after Prime Minister abdullah the resigned in the ongoing antigovernment protest so we would also 1st have to have a new Prime Minister nominated that Prime Minister would then have to form a new government and that government would have to draft this bill now under the current agreement between the u. S. And iraq that also governs the presence of military troops here there would need to be at least the year notice to cancel this agreement so it doesnt seem likely that we will see the departure of foreign troops anytime soon and lets also remember that while there was sufficient majority in parliament to vote for this decision the sunnis and the kurds did not participate in the session and they are calling for a time to discuss such to decisions they dont believe that such decisions should be politicized and taken in haste what was significant however was that Prime Minister out of them at the himself attended the session and he spoke out in favor of the expulsion of foreign troops and that is something that we havent really seen since 2014 when the government invited u. S. Troops to take part in the fight against iceland so far we have seen Prime Ministers take a more balanced position to manage their relations with both the u. S. And iran but with essentially seen here is the current caretaker government clearly taking a side and asking for u. S. Troops to leave. Now here are some of the countries with troops in iraq the u. S. Has at least 5200 soldiers as part of the International Coalition against eisel it announced the deployment of 3500 x. Or stroup so the region to boost security. Manis killing 400 british personnel in iraq canada has 850 soldiers supporting Iraqi Security forces and leading the nato Training Mission australia has about 350 and france has a 1000 in iraq and syria combined to help the fight against. The a or less introduce our panel now in washington d. C. Richard bites a u. S. Defense analyst in geneva by skype rickly head of global risk at the Geneva Center for Security Policy and here in doha zaid on our middle east sam listen an independent research on identity politics in iraq welcome to you all gentlemen thank you for being on inside story richard in washington d. C. Let me start with you the withdrawal of u. S. Troops in iraq was something donald trump has wanted since he took office over 3 years ago it was a Campaign Promise he promised to get u. S. Troops out of the middle east so why is he now threatening iraq with sanctions should it force u. S. Troops to leave. Well even if he wants to you remove u. S. Troops now he doesnt want to be look like theyre being thrown out but more generally the President Trump has as he said campaigned on reducing u. S. Foreign military interventions getting allies to take more of the burden financial and otherwise and was not did not favor the original u. S. Intervention in iraq but in office he has like many previous president s moderated his position hes listened to pressure from the National Clergy security establishment from the u. S. Congress from u. S. Allies and partners and kept troops in afghanistan iraq and even syria longer than he might have life and i think thats what were seeing now that hes being advised that withdrawal of u. S. Forces from iraq abruptly would open the door to isis would encourage sectarianism in iraq and so on and so hes trying to make getting chop of the decision if theres going to be a u. S. Withdrawal a session he would want to make it on what he thinks is the best timetable on the one point of view of the pentagon in the Iraqi Defense situation so easy easy likely to go ahead with this threat to impose sanctions on iraq if they were to go ahead with this withdrawal is that just rhetoric because of course the risk would be here to further push iraq into iran say of influence. Right well so another feature of president francois policy is that he often will use a strategy of escalate to deescalate so hes making a lot of bold rhetoric moving u. S. Forces into the reason and so on but the ultimate goal is to d. S. To lay the crisis and ideally eventually get the security situation when the u. S. Forces can withdraw from iraq so thats how i see these threats i dont think that he would implement them or at least that he plans to do so at present unless something changes but they do have the effect he thinks of persuading the iranians iraqis and others to be more responsive to his demands before i bring in our other guests richard i just want to pick up on what you just said that if if the ultimate goal of President Trump is to deescalate the crisis as you say why then risk killing confidence in him money. Right that Decision Making process isnt totally clear yet from media reports he was given a range of options in response to the killing of a u. S. Contractor and a siege in the u. S. Embassy and he chose this as the optimal response there are some administrations represented her saying there is a risk of an imminent threat to the u. S. Forces there were other i mean this the target had a wrong record of being involved in antiu. S. Activities held responsible for killing of a number of u. S. Forces so that may be why we dont precisely know yet what the Decision Making process was all right is a done i cannot let me bring into the conversation the resolution to expel foreign troops from iraq barely passed in Iraqi Parliament the session as you know was boycotted by most of the sunni and kurdish members of parliament so they are clearly divisions in iraq within iraq as to what the way forward should be it is the government in a position really to to say that it wants to end Foreign Military visit presence in iraq today of course a lot of sun a position to do so that is the very same Political Class or the ethnic sectarian quota class and those installed by those use u. S. Troops that is just a political show to satisfy the iranian influence interests in the Iraqi Government and in iraqi Domestic Affairs the Iraqi Government to realize that the Iraqi Government must give something in return for the loss of general silly money to the iranian government in the way that in that way they will must stand up against the u. S. Even if its in a symbolic way while they would realize that the u. S. Wouldnt withdrawals are truly doing just what is involved in their ways easing this is just symbolic and that the government will not i mean this is a caretaker government of course so automatically the decision will lie with the next government do you think that the they will not go ahead with this though they might go ahead with it but they might realize that. This wont happen without the blessings of donald trump donald trump made it very clear that if he ever wants to with withdraw the u. S. Troops from iraq he will do it under his own conditions and not in a way where he would be kicked out of iraq and even if they did withdraw even if the u. S. Troops would withdraw from iraq there are still military bases in iraq so the question is that the Parliament Vote against the withdrawal of all the u. S. Troops including the ones in the military bases or only the temporary ones that came throughout the contemporary partnership during the war against isis if its only the troops from the 2nd option then the troops on the 1st option would still allow the u. S. To have a very prominent military Strategic Influence in iraq whether its against the iraqis the iraqi peoples destiny or against the iranian influence in iraq right john locke rickly European Forces on the ground caught in the crossfire of this escalation between tehran and Washington Well they have any influence on any withdrawal process if it was to happen. Well the ill inference that the europeans have will be diplomatic if we have a few months that europeans have very little leverage on the politics in the gulf weve seen that when them trump announced with throwing its forces from syria although the operation was maintained to fight isis a de operation and led by the european had to be scaled down because the european relies on the backbone of us need in the region we also see. The defect that european where powerlessness when they try to. Implement this barter system in order to gura u. S. Sanctions against iran does but barbarous mechanic can call in sick with sort of a euro going generates doesnt mind teen and has been. Not workable since then so the europeans are totally rely militarily on the american to exert any kind of leverage in the region all right richard your fonts in washington what consequences for him to switch lead iraq the state Department Says that the presence of the socalled Global Coalition is needed to defeat eisel but already that suspended operations again feisal following the death of customs funny money right for the u. S. Troops are there primarily for 2 purposes one is to combat terrorists and protect lay isom theres a fear resurgence in iraq and it along the roxbury border in particular and there to train the Iraqi Security forces to form this role and become develop other skills so if the u. S. Forces are confined to base for force protection reasons or a withdraw then. The Iraqi Security forces wouldnt have the support and i still would be faced less resistance so what would probably happen is i think the iranians would try and fill that gap but if they do that just going incurred the sectarian split in the Iraqi NationalSecurity Forces that alarmed the kurds and the sunnis so i think it could be counterproductive so this is why i think that theyre you know the iraqi Decision Makers are weve got a tough got a balance there need to as our previous guest said appease iran versus the danger of what would happen if you do pull d out all the western forces from iraq but if u. S. Troops were to leave iraq that would leave their forces in the region in syria in particular vulnerable as well would it not necessarily so they leave iraq but the only moon i mean they have bases as as throughout the region much some much larger than iraq so they could pretty much perform any operation other than perhaps some Iraqi Counterterrorism and Training Missions so if they needed to engage in a war with iran for example they could easily do so not using iraqi bases so that would be the main cost would be for the counterterrorism in iraq and then secondarily in syria because iraq Syrian Border so porous and i think what you know flows across that still they dont is every iraq he behind this decision to expel foreign troops from their country because the protests that weve seen in recent months in baghdad and various other iraqi cities has not Just Announced the presence of foreign troops of u. S. Troops in iraq but also even a new an influence in iraq so if iraq ease today i cornered enough force to choose between the u. S. And iran was the safest choice for them the safest choice is to have both of them. Leave iraq the entire reason why why this escalation or this the tension escalated between the u. S. And iran is because both of them were trying to orchestrate something that would pull the attention away from the iraqi uprisings that began in early october the iraqi led a rocky Youth Led Movement that began in early october 2019 flip the entire equation the equation of the balance of power between several Regional Power players in iraq where beyond the u. S. And the iranian rivalry in iraq but if we were to look at both of them if we look at the consequence of the sequence of the of the events starting from the base in a kind of cool corner the American Contractor civilian got killed its very obvious that iran try to orchestrate something to pull the attention away from the protests that carried a very heavy anti iran sentiment a very heavy sentiment against the iranian dominance and influence in iraq and of course that influence came along with the u. S. Invasion in 2003 just adding to the point that richard mentioned the reason why the u. S. Would like to stay in iraq is not because they want to fight isis or because they would like to support the Iraqi Armed Forces which they themselves destroyed when they invaded iraq if if if the Iraqi Security really mattered if the Iraqi National security really mattered to the u. S. They wouldnt have the story the armed forces they wouldnt have the story the police force in iraq and thats a militarily vulnerable iraq to iran the safest choice to the majority of the iraqis is to have no external factors being present in iraq but they dont let me ask you that if that if you say thats the safest choice would iraq be in a position to defend its sovereignty without that u. S. Presence the presence of foreign to stand any raw iranian fact because as we saw what happened with with i still you know iraqi forces needed that external that external 8. That external aid what was what was it was in addition to the fight against isis if we look at the numbers of soldiers and the numbers of sacrifices in the war against isis most of them came from the iraqi people themselves despite of the components of the societies whether they were shia ours so news or even kurds most of the people who fought in the war against isis where they rocky people of course theyre going to receive the support of d Regional Power players or the u. S. Or the International Coalition the u. S. House have to stand up against isis with iraq since it was a country that allowed a vulnerable iraq to be attacked by a terrorist movement of course iran would support to the iraqi people or the Iraqi Government in its war against isis because it fears that that expansion that isis expansion would have reached iran or it would have limited the powers of its very own pro iran militias on the ground and in the iraqi political arena they iraqi people can definitely face any challenges and obstacles ok it is the iraqi people that double the equation which allowed the u. S. And iran to go become so aggressive and send it to the extent that they even killed one of what their top generals are just for somebody ronnie is im not directly do you agree with say don is iraq in a position to defend its sovereignty today if for him to swear to leave well that would be very complicated i think because the iraqi forces have been depleted up to us invasion in 2003 also the Iraqi Society is deeply divided and therefore that will be very difficult to come up with a strong government but beyond domestic factors if the american troops the west ready to leave iraq without leaving iraq as well then that would prob least trenton disappearing divide into gold and straight into position in iran in the middle east and that would be perceived. As. Being prepped to do a radio very unstable situation in to go from there for we could 1st see robey and his colleagues of violence in the region richard your thoughts they don seems to think that the problems lies with the foreign presence in iraq in that iraqis would be able to to basically assure their own security if these foreign troops were to leave do you agree with that thats possible i mean i still was severely weakened there is there are some reports that its reconstruct in itself but you know it is possible that the Iraqi Security forces have been sufficiently trained they can work with the kurds or other forces to do this but the what the scenario would probably happen though is if the u. S. Leaves its not i dont why would iran leave i mean i think what would happen is the u. S. And what nato forces would leave but then the iranian presence would grow and that would strengthen icefall that would lead. Sonys to join and so i think thats the scenario more likely to get rather than if you withdraw i mean it would be in for in principle a great if you could draw Foreign Forces and have iraqi untalented guaranteed in security interest carrots or any guarantee but its hard to see how you get there from where we are now the u. S. Certainly until now is upping the threat against iran even though they say they want to deescalate and dont want regime change here and i think its very difficult for a lot of people to understand what the ultimate u. S. Strategy is here is day one to stop with. Well you know the goals of the u. S. Are stated so its counterterrorism counterrevolution train strengthen the rock and sovereignty work with allies and partners elsewhere in the middle east and so on balance to get a call that are a Call Security situation and how you get there is a hotly debated topic so the strategy paper hasnt changed that much but some of the recent developments have made it very in there certainly much more complicated and now i think you know the u. S. Wants to retain a military presence for now in iraq it wants to to counter a rainy attacks on u. S. Forces that have and passing could occur in the future in iraq or elsewhere and then its just a question of tactics but i think as i said i think the President Trump strategy is to make the fear of war so. Strong in the minds of the rain and Decision Makers and others that we will diffuse the crisis just to avoid a major concert gratian say dont do you think this is a strategy that could work in this region in iraq and in other countries. Of course it could it wouldnt work in that way because the us in itself is using iraq as a playground against the iranian influence iraq is being because it is becoming a battlefield between iran and the us so in the end of the inventor of the day the us never looked into the region whether it be iraq syria or lebanon or yemen as places where they would like to impose their soldiers to defend them from an evil or an unhealthy influence such as they rein in the regional influence the the the us presence in iraq today is to maintain its power in the region its to maintain its military muscles across the world the same the present the us military presence in iraq is based on the very same reasons why it came in 2003 when i ran into one yeah let me ask you about other arab countries i. E. Saudi arabia would they help iraq to keep iran at bay of course they wouldnt that the reason why you are one of the main reasons why you iraq became so military vulnerable to iran and politically and socially vulnerable is because iraq never received an arab support to support the arab identity or the if there is such an r. A persian rivalry between iraq being the gate of the arab world against iran iraq had to face the rainy and had your moniker regional expansionism due to the to do to due to the destructive us invasion by itself saudi arabia was never there for you iraq if we were look for an arab country that ever supported iraq against iran turkey was never there for you iraq against iran if we were to consider turkey to be the the Regional Power player which is more interested in creating a unified a sunni front against iran in an in direct way so no no one stood up for iraq right ill give you the last word in geneva do you think its too late for diplomacy to avert a major escalation in this region following the assassination. Theres been a lot of talk in the last few days of a major conflicts possibly between iran and the United States is can diplomacy still work. Well there are too late for the promise it took to kick in i fink that it will be difficult that was mentioned in washington its collation to deescalate the probably a strategy is that the retaliation now by the iranian and the level of retaliation will define the us response so european sweller russian and cheney is will have a really hard time to convince both already to back down if one is considered as having gone to all 4 and this is the case for now with the killing of slim mammie we have to wait for the iranian response but you prefer being doubt it would target you where its true ups or even american civilians into region it will be very difficult for our. Allies to to put pressure on president to to back them gentlemen thank you very much for a very interesting discussion im sure well have the opportunity to further explore this crisis in the coming days here on aljazeera which advice is it on our mark or a cli thank you very much for being on inside story and thank you as well for watching you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera dot com for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com for slash a. J. Inside story you can of course also join the conversation on twitter handle is that a. J. Inside story from the fully back to born whole team thank you for watching but for now thank you oa. 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Canny find a way to bring the 2 worlds together life smoke while harvest on aljazeera. We understand the difference is in similarities of cultures across the ground so matter how you take it out using your brain the needs and Current Affairs that matter to. Count is there. For. A final farewell huge crowds in iran for the burial of general qassam son the mahdi who was assassinated in a u. S. Drone strike. Hello im down in jordan this is our jazeera live from doha also coming up confusion over the future of u. S. Troops in iraq the secretary of defense denies plans for withdrawal despite a military letter stating the opposite. Cyprus court hands down a 4 month suspended sentence to a british woman found guilty of lying about being raped. And also showed