Competition for gas in greece cyprus and israel sign a pipeline deal in the Eastern Mediterranean but turkey is also expanding its influence there so well still feel the rivalry and how is it shaping politics in the region this is inside story. Of their very warm welcome to the program im Julie Mcdonald worldwide demand for natural gas is growing and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are changing the use policies on its Energy Supplies for decades its relied on russia for gas but israel greece and cyprus have signed off on a project for a pipeline that would lessen europes dependence on most school well the supply will connect israels offshore fields with europe and is expected to meet about 10 percent of the e. U. s demand for natural gas but that unites the 3 signatories in all positions at sarky and libya last month on korea and aaa agreed a new maritime boundary that they call their exclusive economic so they say this gives them full rights to exploit actual resorts in the Eastern Mediterranean and that includes or oil and gas well lets have a closer look at the east made gas pipeline itll link cyprus and israels levantine big sin offshore gas reserves to greece and then to italy and it will bypass turkey. Meanwhile turkey is deploying soldiers to libya to back the un recognized government in tripoli and thats fighting forces loyal to warlord Khalifa Haftar our anchor says its troops will protect its rights in the mediterranean and its interests in libya where war has escalated in recent weeks and have to a declared in december what he called a final and decisive battle for the capital hes trying to seize the city since april libyas been torn by violence and conflict since the fall of longtime ruler Moammar Gadhafi back in 2011 thank. You. Well lets bring in our guests Gabriel Mitchell is a policy fellow at the Victim Institute think tank he joins us by skype from west jerusalem Mehmet Ojukwu who is chairman of the London Energy club and a former turkish diplomat he joins us from london james moran is an associate Senior Research fellow at the center for european policy studies and former e. U. Ambassador to egypt he joins us from brussels a very warm welcome to each of you gents so what does all of this mean i want to kick off with you minutes to help us unpick this potentially deeply complex situation from your perspective how realistic is this pipeline project given the turkish opposition. Well i dont think its only related to turkish opposition if you look at the merits of such a pipeline of course there is a great value in bringing and other gus corridor to europe in addition to what we have you know russia north africa no way f. S. R. You us l. N. G. So theres a theres going to be a gust to gas competition coming from different sources if this new pipeline will bring guys which is affordable cost competitive to other ones and it also overcome this job political tensions which might hamper the progress in this project of course its over welcome a new addition to european guster also you have to bear in mind that in transition to a low Carbon Economy in europe there are going to be significant challenges for new gusts to be brought to the European Markets there isnt also a strong appetite for near infrastructure Pipeline Infrastructure to build dont forget that we have now turned up tap which will bring gas from caspian through Turkey Greece to italy which has already been signed and progress and the guys was brought all the way to the Turkish Border then top is completed this will carry gus to italy then you have trucks stream 2 which will bring us why it. All the way to baumgarten and then you have north stream true under the baltic sea bringing us to Central Europe so there is an abundance of gus supplies coming then the question will be of course how realistic is to have some additional gas. At what price and also politically complex strain whether this will constitute and the risk so also financing will be a huge hurdle because e. B. E. Are the European Investment bank they made clear that they are not going to fund natural gas projects in the future so there are so many complex issues at hand and i hope that this will be resolved and this pipeline project will go smoothly and dont also forget an example that we had in the past number of projects started in 2002 abundant in 2013 then transformed into turner the lessons that we learned from such power plants you can sign all this Intergovernmental Agreement m. Or use and whatever you have but the realisation is very very very difficult you need a very strong lead country in this case i dont see who will be delete country is going to be italy which will be absent in the meeting today signing Intergovernmental Agreement in huttons what about egypt egypt is against this pipeline as far as i can see because it wants to be the main hub for gaza exports from the region and then of course u. S. And e. U. Are supporting it but whether they are going to put also Financial Capital behind this project is in addition to Political Capital then the agreement signed between turkey and libya tripoli based government. The maritime boundaries and military cooperation skirting the exclusive Economic Zone and also continental rights of crete which is in the middle of this pipeline so these are a lot of question marks that spring to mind and then im going to start an item in a 2nd well definitely get to all of those question marks but i want to bring in Gabriel Mitchell at this point and gabriel had heard it said by an analyst at that this particular deal smells of gas but it stinks of geopolitics which i thought was an interesting turn of phrase from israels perspective what does it stand to gain from this deal. Well what were talking about is the 7th summit between israeli separate and greek heads of state you are asked to not have yours so 1st and foremost were talking about a political process a diplomatic process that even over the course of the last 2 or half years has roots that go back nearly a decade so from an israeli perspective politics is perhaps the ultimate prize i mr netanyahu gave an address last night to the israeli public in which he was talking about efforts to create immunity for himself from any kind of criminal charges but in his speech he spoke about how he would be going to athens in order to secure a gas deal that would reward israelis with billions upon billions of dollars now i agree with a lot of what mehmet said that ultimately were talking about an m o u between the Political Parties but not between commercial actors and certainly needs to check off technical feasibility boxes not to mention the commercial ones so the aus i think is framing it is about economics about commercial opportunities but everything about this process right now is geopolitical and it cant be ignored nor can it be to the room which is turkey was not a part of these conversations and hasnt been a primary actor in these processes but nonetheless is present even if those 3 states would prefer not the teams moran past and present rivalries and a tightening gas discoveries in a new bill and of contention and that theyd fostering division rather than cooperation how do you see things. Well it is certainly case the wild east if you want to put it that way given the tangled web of interests between the different parties but i think as map was saying there is quite a strong common interest between the suppliers and the consumers here i mean the e. U. Has already put money into the project almost 40000000. 00 went into feasibility studies hes right to point out the problems down the line in terms of the finance of the infrastructure itself and that will be a challenge but theres no doubt that there is a common interest there what is whats lacking is some sort of regional or Multilateral Forum to bring the different parties together there is in fact one initiative which i just want to point out which is the smell gas forum which was formed about a year ago which is headquartered in cairo and includes 6 of the parties doesnt include lebanon of course turkey hasnt joined but nevertheless that sort of organization could be perhaps used to bring out the different contradictions of interest and so forth and keep the i on the prize which is without question for europe anyway diversification of supplies and hopefully a contribution in the longer run to greatest ability in the region that mehmet i want to look now at the situation in libya will it Turkeys Parliament sending troops to libya to protect as it sees it its right in the Eastern Mediterranean its obviously recently signed that maritime boundaries agreement with libya but how much of a gamble is that for turkey and what implications does it have. Well i think wanting is quite clear turkey feels being ignored sidelined excluded india bigger is military nongame and this 7 nation military and Natural Gas Forum for example doesnt include turkey but if you look at these pictures on a very objective basis turkey is the largest country in east met to reckon with and by we are 2 of its economy military culture intelligence and Energy Consumption and transportation lines whatever you look at it and it is also the longest costa line in is at and if you exclude turkey in the equation is matt i dont see how many countries exist there doesnt matter much its going to fail this way or another it will never lead to any collaboration or settlement of the disputes we will always have tension and confrontation so one way to make it a win win streak for all coastal countries in the region is to have a meaningful dialogue because if you include turkey in this equation and then things might work better because turkey is also after securing law because natural gas for instance appliances one of the largest markets in europe about 48. 00 to 50. 00 museum of gas consumption per year coming from russia iran as it is john f. S. R u n g u s l n g as well you name it theyre poor it is difficult but we need to the pulled his size decision old a bit because there is a perception in uncorrupt that there is a sort of. You will front in quotation marks against turkey formed by israel egyptian cyprus greens and also supported by saudi arabia and United Arab Emirates so this creates a sort of clear which in the region against which turkey is trying to struggle and make room for itself and the agreement with the government legit image government in tripoli is a sign that turkey is changing the game making some waves i agree that there are some serious difficulties especially in terms of skirting creek from the scriptures which i believe by International Law it has its own rights but turkey i think has done a maximalist. Approach in terms of bringing itself to the pictures and then making statements especially present undergone made a number of statements which was a surprise to me saying that we are open to discussion dialogue negotiations on that so i think at this stage if you ignore this turkish approach you like it or not but only focus on what this 34 countries can do together i think old f. Was unfortunately no matter what support it will get from us or even you will be bound to fail so libya and also turkish determination to send to libya military advisors support technicians and Logistical Support whatever you name it and there will be the beginning of a quite dangerous a gambit in that country because opposition forces. General have fair and supported by another opposing camp and so this way a nato member country turkey will be opposing couple of other nato member countries and then regional countries so this means spreading the risks and tension and conflict from syria to is mad and then to libya so i think there is an urgent need for this measure powers to sit down. And find a way to overcome this difficulties otherwise my concern is that this is going to explode in such a way that we may not be able to control it is not going to be in the interest of anybody its not also time to exchange blames whos to blame for this or does i want to be in using him as a liberal as a kind of interested reckons member i just want to bring in james franks i can see you nodding there james so weve got a situation on the ground as mehmet just lying there which is potentially explosive in the and we have a situation where turkey will be giving support in several ways but it will also to some degree be facing off against egypt i mean in regional terms thats a real tinderbox isnt it. Yes and its been that way for far too long you cant blame frankly the. Legitimate government in tripoli the internationally recognized government in tripoli. Saraj for doing what is done with turkey they do feel isolated when it comes to support security support and one of the problems frankly has been the lack of a common position in europe which has a huge interest in trying to calm down the situation and there with the new leadership coming in now here in brussels i think one of the greatest challenges they have in the southern neighborhood of the European Union is to. Bang some Heads Together in particular in paris and rome france and italy who have been up a supposing size in libya for quite some time now even if they give lip service to the United Nations process which would bring these 2 major Member States together and to forge a common position to support the United Nations led process leading to some stability hopefully long term stability in that blighted country sooner thats done the better and that might also take the pressure off the government there and the other part is to not to turn to agreements of the kind that theyre just forge with turkey 2nd thing i want to say and i agree with none of these projects are going to be successful in the long run unless. Efforts are made not to isolate turkey turkey is a player theres no question about that in these the mediterranean and again its understandable that they feel a little bit isolated in this story so i think theyre there to another challenge for the new leadership here in brussels is to try to find a way forward on easing the tensions in the relationship with turkey and the e. U. Does need to tread carefully at the end of the day turkey is an absolutely key partner not least on migration then of course it is still a candidate for membership in the much longer run even if with the other one of ministration that is not so easy. At the moment but ways need to be fined found to keep turkey on board but right now the challenge is to get behind the un process in libya to provide a longer term stable settlement in that country and to do that i think is a top of the agenda for the e. U. Gabriel michel from everything that im hearing here there is a certain amount of common sense and pragmatism to keeping turkey on side does israel believe that that sim porson so or is it a priority right. I think that the israeli position is that. The door is 000 is been open for turkish troops stationed in any kind of regional processes and i do think that there is. A very basic architecture for some kind of regional form as a bastard moran mentioned he said gas form is perhaps the most basic rubric but an important starting point for regional dialogue not only on at Energy Issues but all different kinds of issues that can bring the parties together at the same time from the israeli perspective there are clear red lines that it has seen in asian peculiarly in violation of what it sees as the rights of the interests of other regional parties and partners specifically cyprus and greece israel has had a better relationship in the past we dont have to go into all the particulars but the bottom line is that Energy Cooperation was at the very least rhetorically one of the primary reasons used for reconciliation between israel and turkey in 2016201728 extension 00 negotiations about a potential gas pipeline fell through at least in theory over price but i assume that there were some political concerns as well that it is it is what it is right and bassam are and mentioned that turkey is still at least in theory and you cant do that i think we should all be realistic and say that you know if that if were talking about the heir to one government then were talking about a government that oftentimes prefers having a type of combative relationship with a lot of neighboring countries that includes israel but it obviously includes other respect countries as well cyprus egypt greece you know and of course the are. Pinions so one of the leading or finding some kind of middle ground on the political issues is challenging so long as president everyone is an hour and so long as he has an interest and in finding spirit issues to distract his domestic base of the james mom i want to know more about where egypt stands in all of this women in that it wants to be a gas hub in the region so where does it stand. But i know that egypt is not very keen on the east med pipeline it sees it as a some sort of competition to its own aspirations to be a major hub energy in the region im not entirely sure that that is the correct analysis i think there are complimentary. Aspects to all of this after all if egypt is going to be exporting to the European Market it will not be through pipelines they will do it through liquefy the energy and the rest and its not for now because the domestic needs in egypt are enormous and it will be some years before egypt could become a major exporter herself egypt is also i think in a difficult position because of in libya where its certainly been giving support. If not officially then certainly through the back door to those forces in the east of the country and finds itself i think up against. Problems in that country understandably so they have an interest because of the enormous border long border between the 2 countries i think egypt finds itself in a in a rather nuanced position is also there are a member of the eastern gas forum and of course which is headquartered in cairo so egypt is participating in this. Early. Multilateral process and i think as gable i think mentioned there. That could actually be the seed of something a little bit more productive and constructive Going Forward and egypt will have a role to play in that at mehmet i want to ask you will economic pragmatism across the old historic rivalries boundaries in borders cannot prevail. Well we cannot wait for the political troubles disputes and impasse to go away before we launch any commercial project and i believe that not only in is made case but also many other Pipeline Projects unfortunately it they are not becoming sort of an instrument for peace building and also in a win win propositions wherever you look in the world and such resource will open sharing transportation costs frictions tensions and our hope that in east mats despite all this difficult is whether the commercial economic realities could prevail from that perspective i think the option of bringing in cypriot as well as israeli and the greek gas through turkey 20 existing infrastructures you know and then top country into europe or to extreme to would be economically more feasible but i recognize that given the current circumstances in which turkey doesnt have any permanent relationship now with cairo and have great difficulties. Netanyahu government in tel aviv and then Cyprus Dispute continues its quite difficult to do this right away but still im optimistic that. With some work tourists coming from other regional countries in such a way that turkey is not antagonize or cornered and it will be seen as part of the one of the major partners in this scheme buying natural gas from the region investing in it facilitating it and then also if it could to bow as well as basically to National Sharing of the Maritime Resources and boundaries in the region i think could be a step forward so we need a positive spillover effect or otherwise my concern is that economy benefits relatives commercial interests maybe sideline and they will have the hard facts like gunboat diplomacy that the softer if you is exercising a feeling that there is no other instrument in the sound so i strongly believe that there is still array of hope in is met for parties to come around the same table because such projects as you know doesnt happen from today to tomorrow and it takes sometimes dictates as we have seen in the case of snow book or didnt turn up and nor stream turks stream it will take long time and it is not also related to erdogan or whoever it in the are or techies it is to stay at least half a century in place therefore there has to be a sound basis for if such infrastructure to be built and operated sense of get out of a star larger dreyer force like the fact that i have learned a lot lets hope that economic pragmatism does prevail thank you so much gents for joining me with your thoughts thanks to all of our guests Gabriel Mitchell mehmet chill and james moran and thank you of course to you for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion of course go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a. J. Inside story for me to the madonna and the whole team here apply for that. January on aljazeera president dont know trump is that that president in history to be impeached what does this mean for the future of the u. S. Leader on the brink of an election before much earlier and president ial candidate explores the defeat of left wing Political Parties a close match in america a look at how this years World Economic forum to focus on ways to tackle the impact of Climate Change than expropriation of family links to the sydneys regime examines if its early may now be embracing fascist ideologies most believed gone forever with the general election out of the way breaks it is now certain how moving you can proceed with a transitional period in the coming months january on aljazeera. 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