Mogadishu suffers its worst attack in the years raising a question mark over transition plans are wrong groups making a comeback will National Institutions be able to take on more responsibility in 2020 this is inside story. Hello welcome to the show im sam is a than nearly 80 people were killed on saturday in the worst bomb attack in the somali capital in 2 years president mohammed of the law he has condemned it as he nears acts of terror hes blaming it on. The armed group was forced out of mogadishu in 2011 but still controls large parts in the southwest of the country the United States has intensified as strikes the African Union has long been on the offensive in somalia but that hasnt stopped the shabaab from carrying out deadly attacks there and in neighboring kenya and uganda this latest one has raised concerns about whether somalias forces are capable of maintaining security as African Union troops begin to withdraw well talk to our guests shortly but 1st this report from how to. Cheering morning rush as many people going to work and University Students heading to campus the bombs exploded at a security checkpoint by many coming into mogadishu. A truck loaded with explosives was detonated at a busy checkpoint the explosion led to many deaths and injuries most of those died here students who were going to the schools and universities. This explosion is like the one in the junction back in 2007 just a few steps away from where. Officials believe the target was a building next to the checkpoint by Government Troops the group was pushed out of mogadishu several years ago but it still targets high profile areas such as checkpoints and hotels. Also carried out attacks in neighboring kenya and uganda. Is trying to stop attacks like this from happening. Saturdays tragedy has become a Lesson Learned since the country is in a state of we need to be vigilant against terror attacks since the primary goal of the terrorists is to cause maximum damage to everybody. Not only targeting those who work for the government but the entire population for those caught up in the blast and those who lost family members and loved ones thats a little comfort now. Lets bring our gas into the show then we have joining us here in doha in the studio is the last man an assistant professor at the university of leicester and author of media and the somali conflict mohammed had more gay is former head of Strategic Communications for the Somali Government he joins us from mogadishu jealous man is a somali journalist who joins us from london welcome to all of you folks and start with it ill here in the studio so does the bombing show that somalis government small is government has failed already failed to even control the capital. Its a very difficult situation sami on one hand you have a an insurgency thats reinventing itself and they have been driven away from many parts of that they controlled previously in south south and central somalia they used to have a stronghold in mogadishu they no longer do the same with you know several key cities in South Central somalia but whats happened whats happening here is a number of key issues that have sort of come together on one hand you have a government who doesnt have the sophisticated arms to actually be it to have a more sophisticated warfare with against them on one hand because of the the weapons and barker on the other hand you have a very flexible and immobile insurgency while shabaab doesnt have a base particularly they literally are in the woods and they can quickly mobilize themselves to to organize attacks and things like that and then i think the bigger problem here is that the public neutrality so you have a public that thinks this is a fight between the Somali Government on one hand and al shabaab on the other hand and so they dont realize that in fact they are the biggest sufferers when it comes to these attacks and weve mentioned in your headline introduction that you know close to 100 people have died all of those are civilians including those that the were from from International Community such as the 2 turkish engineers so i think where the government probably need to do a lot more work is creating Public Perception and creating an incentive for the public to feel that this is in their best interests to actually get out there for anything security though. Its not just about creating the Public Perception well yes but these things need to go hand in hand right because you actually i was not separate from the public they literally are coming in they they are staying in peoples houses they are creating these bombs and i. E. D. Attacks this is assembling them within. Cities in place and they have people within the public that they can find support and hiding places from so i think these things need to happen in conjunction surprising then lets take the discussion if we may to jamal in london how much support. Does a group like al shabaab get from the public to carry out an attack like this its it would seem given that the casualties are civilians are people from the public students innocent people just going about their ordinary lives its quite shocking to think theyre operating assembling their stuff in the homes of of other civilians i mean it is true and i remember 10 years ago exactly 10 years ago a similar part happened and people were saying of shabab will be defeated al shabaab as we can but i dont buy this narrative that al shabaab has been weakened i think al shabaab by still very strong they control large territories of southern and central samarra yes they have been pushed out of major cities but in villages and towns and rural areas the military this knowledge is i still a strong they know what theyre good at look conventional army they dont face conventional armies but theyre good at guerrilla tactics so they are there they are very strong and i would say their supporters i would divide them into 3 types one. Young man who grew up within the ideology who genuinely believe in alshabaab and there are thousands of them and then you have much people who belong to minority clans who for a generation were used and discriminated an outcast by the bigger clans who were liberated and alshabaab rule who would not accept the bad and then you have big clients who are not happy with the government who feel badly treated by the government who are loyal to al shabaab when they have to be loyal to sew up about half support they are very strong militarily they control large parts of somalia and in fact even in mogadishu they they collect taxes they do whatever they want literally so i dont buy this idea has been weakened they are you know the extra let me if i may bring in mohammed youre a former Spokes Person of course or head of Strategic Communications for the Somali Government has the Somali Government i mean the it sounds like from talking to our guest in the show so far it sounds like the Somali Government has failed to heal some rifts really within Somali Society between clans at least and that is feeding support for a chabad. But sunny i think to be honest its not the best of time to analyze the governments efforts to our security when just slightly over 2 to 4 hours ago you could make a case for the government today i mean if youre asking this question to 3 days ago given you homes which most of the people would agree with me but then again theres the emotional aspect to this there is the adrenalin aspect to the desert. And theres a supportive government failure every time theres an attack but then again thats what im sure ive always uses they usually i mean its a Terror Organization the more theres operandi of a Terror Organization is to see if i hear him and when is that a good time without the security performance of a government or when is the appropriate time if not when you know civilian lives are put at stake. I mean exactly i mean this is a government thats up and does dr isnt right you put it this is a case that you see in government against al shabaab which is very wrong i mean the public have to take sides the public are making i mean are the biggest casualties look at yesterday look at 14 october intern 17 his mission 10 years ago at the University StudentsGraduation Ceremony i mean look at all these i mean the thing is al shabaab is and it me for the Somali Government you want to topple the Somali Government the people of the bank bystander its our security in this country who require sophistication tons of technology and not only that it would require a lot of preparation thumbs intelligence gathering so but some i mean i can jamie just theres a number of things that we need to identify 1st of all you know when you have a carnage like today like yesterday when you have a con its like the one that happened in october 2017 with scores of people dying obviously its going to look like the government has failed but i think we need to look at the larger picture on one hand if you look at the number of suicide attacks the number id bombs attack that used to happen this time 234 years ago it was on a regular basis i go to make this you at least 23 times a year for the last 10 years since ive been doing research there and one of the things that used to really really worry us is the. That these attacks were happening almost on a daily basis and weekly basis whereas now if you look at the spread between these colleges it shows that there are months in between you so you have this one thats happened yesterday before that it was you know could come so theres a compliment that maybe they need a spell that shows the hate of 4 years ago but is it is the thing the only thing is that you hear a lot of it becoming bad on that obviously its not going to be at the level that is required to provide security some of them are country lets allow muhammad to finish his thought come back him. To be took it to took to be exact and in detail because it is a good point look at the entire november there was you know incident of the entire 12 others you know incident of attack it doesnt you know shabaab on the holiday they dont they dont take us with breaks i mean every time a shabaab is preparing something is always planning its always in the movies always governing always want to do something but again to assume that we had 60 days 90 days or are under soon that all what guess what and then i mean you need to bear in mind its not just a lot of arm thats going off in these kinds of carnage is youve got a number of people that benefit from the status quo youve got aggravate you know aggrieved Business People youve got the International Community youve got all kinds of shady people that benefit from the state school and so therefore having peace and stability in somalia is not going to be at the best interest of many people including us all right let me bring jamal and ask the question does the scale and location of your bombing suggest at least some degree of info tracing in the state through the security forces. Here there is the front of the un infiltration were being told that they were targeting these turkish. Engineers though we cannot confirm that but i would say the government has felt if 100 people were killed who would you blame yes i have been accused they were expected this is what they do on a regular basis. And if we are void the government and i mean telling the truth then i dont think there will be any solution the normal sort of procedure you hear when a parts like this happen is the government can do they send condolences and then they weigh the next up top and i would disagree with even though its not the government thats preventing suicide attacks i think al shabaab has changed its is trying to do they used to do and the sort of lets say scare up types but now they are going for the big attacks and i think the bigger impact has no i wouldnt i wouldnt say the government has managed to prevent any of these attacks i think its alshabaab that has changed its strategy so i would repeat again the government has failed of somalia or i can say 100 wants to come back in lets give you a chance to finish your thought the the later of some of the nature of al shabaab zaatar is that the shabaab by its very nature that accomplishing is not conventional they would and conventional warfare they are the arm of us theyre shapeless they are focused and thats how they do the activities and not only does government any government in somalia today really struggle with cutting with preventing all. But then having say that that does not negate the fact that this government has tried to do a few things i mean for example anybody who is well vast of the geography of this country will tell you that there are significant inroads in security i mean even in movement of the Somali National army look at the bridges near mogadishu there are towns and villages that are very significant to al shabaab coming. Into the towns that have been taken their number of efforts we live in mogadishu as a city that has been taken i mean there are these city commerce all of our there is the biometrically destruction of the Somali National army all these that not been there im not saying that enough they cannot be enough its a work in progress lets give governments where the hardware are where they make some inroads but then again lets also blame the government for the gaps and thats why i was telling you earlier on thats not the best time to analyze saw billy objectively well the government has done with regards to security in the budget bucket drop off reasonable target a scheme of 81 people most of them story does the bombing also raise some question marks about the effectiveness of all those Foreign Forces and African Union forces in somalia i mean for me one of the big concerns i see is the lack of coordination amongst all of the people that are involved all of the agencies that are involved in the security and stability of somalia youve got the Smaller Government thats obviously taking the lead on this but then you also have number of you know western countries a number of middle Eastern Countries that are involved in training the police units and training the military personnel so the specialists the forces that have taken over the liberated cities that was mentioning earlier for example where then taken over and stabilized by small a force that was specially trained by the american or the British Military but on top of that you also have private security you also have a you know a number of. International agencies that are involved in Security Operations and what im seeing is a lot of activity and lack of coordination we need more effectiveness we need want to streamline and there are laws in the belief amongst some somalis that all these foreign agencies or forces are really looking out for their own National Interest rather than that of the Somali People is that what youre getting i think there are a number of conflated interests here so you have on one hand the u. S. And the western society and the west in its National Community that are largely operating on a policy of can. A moment and so its very much keeping things within the somali borders and trying as much as possible to contain it and that also is then in you know fueled by the fact that you have an arms embargo which means that the Somali Security forces only have a k 47 is to fight when they actually needs a period weaponry to fight an insurgency like on the other hand you have security personnel by private companies by private businesses and all of them obviously looking for their best looking out for their vested into this is why im pointing out to the fact that the government really doesnt they need to take leadership in stream now streamlining all of the Security Operations that are happening in somalia so that you can have a much more effective effect if approach 100. 00 do you think the what somali are you will be ready to take on more responsibility to see a drawdown of African Union forces and 2020 as was planned meant turn to 20 is just too soon i mean doubles just a very ambitious. Very very ambitious keen to not in the hospital but then we today chris a little bit. Before where do you think the Somali Government is going to ask you to extend the store down is not going to happen well well i dont speak for the government no private enterprise or do you think was my question would have to say i mean. I think i think under some is there to stay for a little while and i dont think 2020 would be a time when there will be a complete or a draw complete draw down on this and but then there is aspect of correlation between the African Union forces and my own National ArmySomali Government and International Community ill give you the very list of examples is look at the statements i mean there is not even sense or a statement of opinion has a statement the un has a different statement even condolences even if in games when they make the Somali Government has a different statement so people who are not able to consolidate a basic statements Something Like this are we going to move all this our condolences or this is meant generally thats not there its an aspect of coronation we looked at it as rightly quote and how elaborated on but then it is too soon to answer your question 2 of the African Union forces. Move out or even draw down for now because where us the Somali Government has made huge inroads in ensuring that this my leisure armies organized and there is the there is the head count of the Somali National army that is now going theres about letters to army which have which is the rowing i believe and which had actually given the government there really are a template of how to and how to know where this thankful lie or where or how to plan ahead in their restructuring the Somali National army but then again 2020 is just 3 days to come i dont think right is the right word and that is that raises then jamal that raises some more questions than about what might happen in 2020 such as can Credible Elections be held as planned 2020 i think before also the election let on with your question. Yes. Let me let me answer the initial question Somali Forces ready to take over the country and the simple answer is no and i dont think the African Union forces are going to leave somalia any time soon simply when you hear Somali Forces there made up of clan militias there is no such thing as Somali Forces unified Somali Forces and they are loyal to their clans 1st the idea of nationhood is an abstract idea to most of somalis so i dont think the African Unions will leave anytime soon and if they do is there to take over the country they are there they have the army is the system is still exists so that coming back to your question of an election now what are your elections and there doesnt seem from as well for the whole 11 hour how how will all the jamal jamal if one army are. Going to take the country because we know al shabaab they do it is not very popular anymore theres already a stream of new recruits polish up and they keep making losses why have i in one video i have a. Rather that they are not popular this is this is false narrative in order to learn Something Else or mali have they are popular they have supporters they are loyal supporters who are willing to die for their cause doing why or how is that it is acceptable if their own house above has already new string of. Or has a point of release team of new recruits. Already before they do anything go they do have supporters of the fight so im so obviously very strong i have run away from our sort of territories over the years i have seen or if they have huge fighters they have supporters lets move on to the question of elections and Going Forward well bring it to deal here in the studio or how does the expectation for elections look like now well youve got the government and the International Community that are both pushing for the one man one vote approach its own interests event can happen in the right way i think theyre going to face and some real difficulty on one hand youve got obviously the security challenges the fact that the government doesnt have control over all of the areas within the smiley territories the 2nd issue is the fact that you have the federal state members who dont all agree with one man one vote youve got put land thats again said you got your bill and thats against it you can go on with it thats against it and so to to actually be able to realise on having a one man one vote within one year the law is in there are exactly a lot still needs to be done and on top of that i think the best thing in if they had a realistic expectation without asking for a Term Extension the best thing that they can do is probably look for a way that moves away from the 4. 5 formula where you had the clan elders electing the Parliament Chair of parents who then elect the president but perhaps look for ways that you can have the public chip in on some of the a little more and you all rather than a one man one vote after all right let me bring in if i can im a beginner and talk about another issue thats on the horizon there is some doubt about whether the Somali Government is going to get debt relief from the i. M. F. And world bank in the spring of 2020 namely because one of the biggest growth is the u. S. Accords with the u. S. Were told didnt get congressional approval for debt relief and some of the spending bills how was. Of the somali authorities in your understanding about that scenario what would it mean for the country wot why dont the fund then he worries within the Somali Government says he gets there to live in this one thing is government could be proud of is there for its to add to their debt leave the house all the support from the United States and the International Community the aspect of congressional debate over whether there may have been a simple oversight on the side of the United States had been in the news the government did not come out and clear their own that if anything the un been very late if anything they have been very optimistic that that by march of this year next year probably somalia meets the the fast really there truly for them and if the United States take the lead if theyre able to correct the oversight as reported by some papers in the United States i dont think its a worry for the government would have been awarded for the Somali Government if the office late had been from their side but as far as this goes theyre very clear on this and they have they have they have made the right calls on this and i think theyre theyre just waiting and hoping that will be corrected as well if anything theyre very hopeful or i think weve got about 30 seconds left let me give it to them on the ask the question what does the humanitarian situation look like Going Forward in the in addition to fighting of course weve had the recent floods. But you might be humanitarian situation in somalia its always dire where the it rains or we have a drought i have reported over the years droughts and rains and unless we have a credible government thats there to serve the public i think we would see a more humanitarian crisis over the years. All right were going to have to leave it there lets thank our guests very much for this discussion here in the studio and of course hamad and jamal and thank you too for watching you can see the show again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com further discussion head over to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a. J. Inside story from me sam is a balance of 3 here but ill just go by. What happens when plans for a new life are brewed and derailed by committing serious crimes from Drug Trafficking turn agree to. 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