Push to take control of this land rebel held region how much of a chance do they stand this time around what will the human cost be this is inside story. Hello welcome to the show im sam is a than opposition rebel groups in syria have been trying to overthrow the president for the past 8 years now could become the final battle between his forces and rebels the region is the last rebel held stronghold dominated by the armed group a at the height of the sham the government with russian help launched a new offensive to retake it live last week dozens of people have been killed in the past few days and tens of thousands more displaced a day in cities have repeatedly warned that attacking it live could trigger the worst humanitarian crisis of the syrian conflict Government Forces are now making steady gains as they advance towards the town of moderate and nor man they want to capture the crucial m. 5 highway which links the capital with syrias largest city aleppo. Syrian Government Forces advancing from the east have surrounded a turkish observation post in the region turkey backs Syrian Rebels and has 12 observation posts in northwest syria as part of the agreement brokered last year with russia turkish president ial spokesman Ibrahim Callen says ankara is talking to moscow to reach a new ceasefire for quote from the numbers are the russians have informed our delegation in moscow they will try to achieve a truce and stop the regime attacks within the current 24 hours were of course a fall and a part of an end to the attacks and these attack should come to an end immediately and implement under the new ceasefire this is our main expectation from the russian side a cease fire agreement in 2017 led to the creation of for the escalation zones in syria one of them was lip and as we mentioned earlier turkey and russia agreed in september last year 2 aces sation of hostilities between rebel fighters and pro forces in the province the Syrian Government backed by russian air strikes launched an offensive in april to retake the province but the new fighting comes despite an agreement by the leaders of Turkey Russia and iran to recommit to deescalation efforts in the area meanwhile turkey has said it cant handle a new wave of refugees from syria because it already hosts millions of displaced Syrian People. All right lets bring our guests into the show joining me here in the studio in their heart is you here lardy the hes the spokesman for the Syrian High Negotiations Committee mehmet cherokee is managing editor at the daily star newspaper he joins us on skype from istanbul and Pavel Felgenhauer is a defense and military analyst he joins us from moscow in russia welcome to all of you let me start with you here here in the studio so is that the escalation deal basically dead. Well. It was dead from the very beginning because we felt from early on that. The a sterner track was meant to abort cease fire agreed upon by the Security Council resolutions that there was there were periods of of relative calm at least right was there is an angle a sion going on but violations start the next day the agreement or signed at libbers you said was the last one among those the escalation areas but the issue is not between the rebels and the regime it is one between the people who are being the main victims of all this deescalation thing and now tens of thousands of them are being displaced and they dont have any place to go why will it kill anyone bombardment were going to come to the humanitarian aspects of this but 1st before we move on to that im curious to know what you think can the fighters hold on to it live. Well i dont think so because they dont have any until iraq to. Devices nor do they have planes in order they have heavy weapons they just trying to defend themselves not only the rebels but the people themselves there is some sort of control over the rebels themselves because the one who is mobilizing them has other priorities in northeastern syria now with the excuse being a. And and giuliani and they are they are not being targeted themselves and muslim people are being targeted and thats the real problem really hold i dont think so because you have the power of the regime with the airplanes and of the same time the power of the russian bombardment of noise on daily basis lets talk of russia lets bring in pavel from Moscow Russia is supporting this current Syrian Government offensive is moscow no longer committed to this deal this deescalation deal well the situation is rather complex because well right there are different opinions about that in the russian establishment because of course the mostest the Syrian Government they dont like turkey at all and they dont pry occurred the gun and they would want that turks out and theyd live kind of finally pacified is all the other. Zones socalled of the us go away sions and the south and close to damascus and parts of the Russian Military would work closely with the Syrian Regime most likely have the same opinion but the kremlin and the Russian Foreign policy from there is run by personally by president Vladimir Putin he has other priorities and which is to the base just once was back in the picture and i believe that this may be a small specs. Powell roster of russia will russia not lose. Mattick face if this deal which its brokered as you hear presents is continually continuously violated and the russians now are supporting the escalation against the escalation deal well yes that they are there are of course the same thing happened i mean in good. Provinces the russians and i mean they didnt they didnt moscow didnt see much very much problem and that the problem right now is and what president putin is going to deal with is the his relationship with turkey which are more important than what happens in the per se so if theyre dug on will be insisting that the offensive against stops then its most likely are going to stop but you know is going to stop it because turkey and relationship with turkey and see the relationship between turkey and the United States and with nato are much more important geo strategic way. Militarily for russia and the kremlin than the problem of. Per se ok i believe in that sense if i get a low and then run thing indecisive ok were for we get there method seems like everything now hinges on what he may decide to do in a large part well a little while as possible put it in the system that this offensive must stop. Well i dont think this is this that did the Decision Making about stopping this you know indiscriminate attacks on civilians is a decision that turkey will be making because turkey from the get go turkey has several priorities when it comes to syria particularly and that is to achieve somewhat a political solution to make sure that there is. You know civilians are protected and make sure that those refugees who have escaped from Syrian Civil War are able to go back to syria now you know it is and this enjoying those things are not achieve those goals if the if that to its put the you know the foot down to the russians so to speak well that is something that turkey has worked since 2017 to achieve that through us donna and sochi and other bilateral meetings with between president are gone and president putin you know out on president out on has been pushing very hard to to establish somewhat of a cease fire in need and even the eclipse deal was based on the aim to to to stop attacks on the civilians how whether this has been successful its a question to ask however turkeys position has been. The same from from the beginning it hasnt changed but it has been the regime and the russians who have actually violated the deal on it live and the regime is able to attack civilians. In front of the whole irrational commit is not something thats a matter of turkey alone but the International Community is also responsible to achieve some sort of a world innocently point is that an appetite in syria is rather questionable right now before i before i come back to you here let me just go back to pavel in moscow and ask the question from your analysis of the complex thinking as you put it in moscow right now is there a certain expectation that perhaps ankara has to be a little bit flexible shall we say with moscows designs for it in return for russian flexibility over turkish action against some kurdish syrian kodesh groups in the northern syria. Well yes its thats about the socalled red china situation its also connected turkey is there and russia has interests there and russia has deployed some troops there and of course it also takes into account whats happening right now around tripoli and were bad well again turkey and russia may have different opinions so its a very big break on which are the gun and bullets and have to kind of feel to move the pieces and find some kind of quid pro quo and again theres the more important position from Russian Point of view is turkish relationship with the west with the United States and nato and turkish threat because that interleague which is so important for russia russia could sacrifice of many other things to achieve that goal to see the americans out of injured expect so its going to be a very complicated negotiation interesting yeah it sounds to use the metaphor that pavel used that a big plate with a lot of very big players at the dinner table but it sounds like the Syrian People may be the ones to get the smallest bite out of the dinner when its absolutely betrayed you are correct. Things very accurately actually we the victims of the. Big powers trying to settle their conflicts the expense of syrian. Civilians. They have their own priorities now from. Statements. That put. Has problems with other departments in his Administration Defense or the communist thinking this way the Defense Ministry is thinking another the Foreign Office is the 3rd way and another. Thing syrians do not like the turks now if they dont want if they dont like the turks should make should should they kill their people this is another thing at the same time turkey wants russia wants turkey to to to to detach itself from nato and would that require the this this inhuman action in killing civilians displacing tens of thousands and but you said the you came to syria to fight terrorism a few if you intend really to fight terrorism you should target those rebels those what you call terrorists not children not women you look at the picture now when people are just flooding into into the borders and they are not allowed to get into turkey no one accepts them this is a real catastrophe in front of the world with people talking about their priorities they have political priorities regarding this regarding that at the same time we are plagued by an irresponsible regime that does not care about its people and unfortunately it gets the support from a superpower called russia and trying to settle their conflict with the west at the expense of syrian blood thats very well thats thats clear right now is no but im curious i mean your the spokesperson for the Syrian High Negotiations Committee what is it youve just told me that you dont think that the fighters can hold on the n. T. As said forces can hold on to it live. Whats the future well the Syrian Opposition whats the future for negotiations for committees for well the lincoln isms you represent work ok well its not a matter of jerk its not a matter of controlling this. Is trying to tempt that he deemed that he jeems subbrand t. Depends on its control of the so you and your graphic while the revolution will be over wont it when it is it is not all that old the illusion in you that evolution is inside peoples hearts and minds they do not want oppression do not want aggression they do not want this regime that has treated them in. A tragic way all these years with the support of. Alarm militias with iran and with the russians as a superpower doing what the regime wants so they wont be able to do anything about it militarily if theyd live for us right thats pretty much would be game over well armstrong no its not no no its not its not that world where you go into the patient of the region were people who are loyal to the regime you would find them resenting all these things that are happening not in terms of fighting but life has become so miserable the next few ation is deteriorating for social fabric is. There is torn up all these things are happening inside syria its not a matter of jirga its not a matter of so and if if if russia wants syrian sovereignty it should at least stop supporting aggression righted the ship ok let me bring in mathematics i can in from from istanbul. Nominate people already flooding towards the Turkish Border turkey said it doesnt it cant accept any more people but ultimately what will turkey do will turkey really turn away all of these people turkey has never actually turned away any oppressed people when and when the opening its doors a last option it will never do so once the thirst are reduced. It is definitely not the 1st option because it is what is the name of all options are at it while i think the establishment the 1st option is to make sure that. You know they can they do what it can to their best ability to stop this aggression whether that be being with diplomatic negotiations with russia and other partners however if thats not the that doesnt stop then i think containing the refugee flow within syria and in some of the safer zones will be the 2nd option if it comes down to you know either these people will face death by the hands of the regime and the Russia Russian Forces or your pen to door for them i dont think joe turkey will turn away anyone that isnt escaping the death thats dead thats a different issue thats true when it comes to the military and for one project and he will never turn away anyone but i think there is other options and the 1st one 1st for foremost being the the attacks needs to be used to come to an end on on women on on children and on civilians as a whole how in holes namma forgive me for jumping in again but how important is that or how much of a priority is that ending the assault on it live when you as pavel pointed out there are much bigger geo political questions at stake right now including for turkey i mean if turkey does move ahead with with closing the injured link and base for nato one imagines turkey is going to have to look further towards some kind of alignment with russia in which case would turkey really you know what its who we say its appetite for standing up to russia or in lib. Not be weakened i dont think thats a very sustainable speculation at this point when we look at turkeys Foreign Policy because turkey has already moved away from facing one way or the other joke is now having its relations good relations with russia has ordered trade energy and security related relations between the turkey and russia but it also one needs to maintain its relationship with the west saw it has the time has already changed for turkish one sided Foreign Policy theres multiple partners that turkey needs to align its interests with and now its not about whether to protect the russian interests through turkeys hand or the western interest through turkeys head now turkeys seeking. You know securing its own interests through dialogue and through partnership through sitting on and on the table and negotiating with what are on the east or or the western partners however when it comes to a humanitarian issue like whats happening in egypt i think its a matter of a matter of saving civilians from a bombardment rather than. You know or prioritizing the list of issues between turkey and russia ok let me bring the level into the discussion the the the regimes shall we say reasoning for going after the escalation zones it has often been well there are groups that the regime considers to be terrorist groups located in there however it will it is a very densely populated area right now with people from 11 from the rest of syria who have moved to adelaide are we heading towards or is putin driving the Russian Forces towards a sort of grozny 2000 bloodbath scenario where the only way to to to stamp out any resistance is buys stamping everybody out. Oh most likely maybe not grozny there was much closer to the situation then good that close to damascus where this was also these coalitions and it was actually a question taken over by syria and the pro ring in forces with a lot of Russian Support and that happened in that battle and. So russians of course are not directly involved that much of the special on the ground there but the moscow of course and the cape most likely some kind of action i really believe russia has been carrying out a lot of ass talks and if they dont have Ground Troops right on the right of the regime the strikes have been criticized but he got yes yes yes well theyre told in civilian life you you know no doubt now of course that happened but of course theres also the syrian. Air force has been reestablished by the russians so the these are both and each side can say that that its not them its the other one right but i knew i believe that theres going to be some compromise that they get the regime will kind of bike off a bit of the most southern part of the. And then theyre going to settle for another uneasy cease fire oddly thats the its not i dont think that this is a kind of good to style a final kind of solution of the problem that there is going on behind it or like an daria kind of offensive to the border. Im doesnt look like that there would be much more assets deployed than maybe other tactics used to cut it in pieces and yet not just simply press forward and one point. Yeah hell militarily i believe its just going to be again another bite bite off right yeah hell lets not forget this the escalation deal came together not only with turkey and russia but also iran whats happening to the iranian role or theyre being squeezed out well as you know they are in a stun. Gun to use their word they were joined. To stand in the 3rd round and now they are going to lose on the part of the regime now due to the fact that good deal of pressure on iran on the part of the United States states russia iran and israel this in time iran is somehow squeezed out but at the same time the main support some in support are on the ground the battle everybody about for the regime however there is one. Issue the good that was mentioned by babel is completely different from it live it live now is a miniature is a slowed syria you with the old the escalation. Agreements that were struck on all those people who wanted to have some sort of compromise were thrown or brought into it live and now it live is it has become. A part for civilians from different parts of syria and on daily basis they are being bombarded this is a tragic situation and we believe that russia talks about finding a peaceful solution and at the same time carrying out military action on the ground should be consistent with itself and at the same time there is a great deal of talk against turkey. Now its because it is many people are showing it is letting down those who it got on t. V. Talk about it and amongst the Syrian Opposition they feel let down the people in general and i told you its not a measurement ergo it is not everything that turkey can do everything in syria cannot do anything about it everything i mean you know we placing too much responsibility and well we dont want to push more more weight or more pressure on turkey but the same time there is one thing that those could be enabled those who were taken to the northeast in syria and these things could could could have ordered the 5 the regime hora im afraid we are out of time so well have to thank our guests very much yahia pavel and met and thank you too for watching you can see the show again any time by visiting our website how does iran dot com and for further discussion head over to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle there is at a. J. 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