The u. N. Is again pushing its peace plan for libya but warlord hell if i have to is threatening a final offensive on the capital tripoli and turkey is planning to step up its support for the internationally recognized government so is the situation about to get worse rather than better this is inside story. Hello there im james bays 8 months ago warlord holy for half his forces defiantly march towards libyas capital tripoli that aimed to unseat the internationally recognized government of fires alsa raj but after several bouts of fighting the battle lines havent shifted much and at least a 1000 people have been killed and many more displaced now haftar says hes launching a final push to tip the balance that offensive could lead to both sides getting more military support from Different Countries in violation of a u. N. Arms in bargo on libya turkey says its ready to send troops to boost the rochus forces this is what president russia tired otoh i had to say one with these agreements the rights of both turkey and libya will be protected in the mediterranean the individual cold huffed are is definitely not a legitimate president or Prime Minister he is just a person who have his to be illegitimate the the move by turkey comes just a few days after the wall of hell if i have to announce his latest plan for the offensive to take the capital and i know im. Not in an america that has the amount we announce the decisive battle and the advancement towards the heart of the capital to set it free it will break its chain as hostages and spread happiness in the heart of its people tripoli will return to the historical light it once was becoming a capital for coach or we will raise the flag of victory through squares closing the pages of injustice misery and defeat with victory we are now its the birth of a new era so advanced now advanced now advance our heroes. So lets start the discussion and bring in our experts we have was tougher for turi an independent libyan academic and contributed al monitor he joins us from paris mehmet selleck is the managing editor of the daily newspaper he joins us from skype from istanbul and joining us from london is not a vico carlino Senior Analyst for middle east and north africa at chess market that is a consultancy what we have 2 important developments in libya one of them is the announcement from general haftar that hes going to try again to retake tripoli and the other is the deal thats been done between the g. N. A. T. Government in tripoli and turkey if i can start with the yuma stuff or 1st to talk about general haftar and his announcement last week he 1st tried to take tripoli very defiantly in a surprise attack in april he didnt succeed will he succeed this time. Thank you for having the game is 1st of all. I doubt he will give up the 1st point but whether he will succeed or not i think he is determined to succeed in the eye and the possibility of him succeeding in taking tripoli soon. You know demands and many factors but we have to remember james very important point here that the foreign minister of the government of national cordon dribbly mr mom but syria and the 7th of the 7th of december just a week ago an interview in iran he mentioned which is something very rare usually really says and that is when he asked about the fall of tripoli to have today said its very serious was ability and i know from my sources on the ground its very serious was ability but. The only thing i can say with 100 percent certainty is that the staff there will not give up but when could he actually marshal to the heart of tripoli inside the city itself. Given things so many other factors but. Its very difficult to absorb it its as we have seen so far ok a little vico if i can ask you whats your assessment of the military situation around tripoli right now in the balance of forces. I can said that we are face of pretty much stalemate from a military standpoint and if we look at previous which is the coalition of militias that the half that is leading oppression today have been conducting their pasts in cities like men ghazi and that it took a very long time and a massive destruction of the cities before declaring a victory and i think that we have seen in this case that it is not going to give up i agree with that assessment but i think its going to take time and my view is that much more destructive conflict of a tripoli is going to happen is on there who rides on in this is not just because of the ellen de trouble in capability to take this city and the strong resistance that we have seen in this month but is because of the increasing foreign involvement that you know is now characterizing the libyan conflict just a follow up with you we mentioned the l. N. There the Libyan National army but its not really a united army is it is not an army yes this correct is much more kind of plethora of different millys shas which so far been known united by the half that and his idea that hes bringing into the for a much powerful able to counterbalance what we have on the other side which is the u. N. Recognized government of the day which in the same way doesnt have a not a me so we are in a situation of should different coalition of different switch at fighting for the control of the country mehmet can i try and get the view there in turkey because clearly they are worried about tripoli otherwise they wouldnt be announcing some of the measures that they are now in announcing. Well i think that these new measures will basically they are whether or not they will come to. Materialize it will depend on how how far the government in tripoli is able to stand on its feet because if the our forces are able to actually eliminate that government then turkey will have no partners that they can cooperate with in libya so it is very significant and crucial for turkeys position and its cooperation with the u. S. Backed government and how far can. How far after i can move and whether they can actually take tripoli or not ok mehmet autobahns you should perhaps you should explain for our viewers what turkey is actually discussing with the g. N. A. T. Government and Prime Ministers soraya tell us 1st up because those 2 elements is a maritime element in the military and would tell us about the military on them and so the military element turkey has agreed with the u. N. Backed government in libya to enhance their cooperation with regards to training with regards to Defense Industry with regards to actually establishing a Quick Response force which can even lead up to turkey deploying forces to leave to support the next government so thats one part of the do you want of the one of the deals turkey has achieved but also turkey has agreed on a maritime deal which is basically. A designated zone between turkeys and libyas contentious Continental Shelf basically it would be across from each other where they can actually. Kariya that joint economic. Economy venturous together and be able to control that it so really when you look at these 2 agreements they are a result of what has been happening as a brother in a broader scale in the mediterranean. Waters and in the east mediterranean for Eastern Mediterranean for example and with regards to the at alliances between greece israel and egypt and and also if we look at the Bigger Picture we can see there gyptian and and there you see rivalry against turkey. In the in the region which also has an effect and in the fight in libya so whether or not these will actually materialize are really dependent on how far or how long the name will will stand against after our forces ok let me can i bring in can i bring in mostafa now moustapha already so many Different Actors have interests in libya and now with this maritime agreement youve got greece egypt and cyprus 2 of those countries werent really heavily involved israel is taking i think some serious concern about whats going on this is going to even further drag in other powers in the region isnt it. Well lets my very likely and most of the countries you mentioned particularly greece are not very happy about what happened and they are questioning. Not only the legitimacy of the of the deal itself but also their legitimacy of the government jna bart the government in tripoli that signed it as we are the from the egyptian foreign minister last week and we have to remember also i think is expelled the libyan ambassador to athens about 10 days ago i think over the days but its very james its very complicated issue was was very suspicious what the government of the National Corps than 2000000000 has done with the turks for several reasons i will mention just couple of them one of them is the when you look at the map and the eastern med chain youll find the greek island of crete is actually which is graphically very close to libya about 200 kilometers east north northeast of libya i think its in the middle of this. Socalled exclusive Economic Zone jane jane i and turkey is trying to draw up and the overall picture is that my own analysis and the information as well mr gandhi used the this this this didnt feel like as a tangling it before the eyes of the government in tripoli which is desperate for any help and there was a security and. Military help in order for them to an order for him to get them to actually blacking blackmailing them to find the Security Agreement which they did and then of a coincidence i can bring you back and bring in a little rico now because the military part of this turkey potentially sending a Quick Reaction force to tripoli actually how we see would that be for turkey to deploy that force one assumes that have to try and do it by sea potentially because have to mainly controls the air is that right. Yes thats correct but i mean ships coming from and supplying weapons to or. Have been calling a music art in tripoli for such a long time now that i dont think is going to be a problem arctic i think that the main problem here is going to be deckard sequences of deploying troops in libya is not the 1st time that we see foot in troops in libya presence of russian medicine and hes been documented to we also are not dead sudanese for to send child young master notice of the fighting in libya the u. A. E. Has a big role as well but this will be the 1st time that a country or plainly will send troops in libya and this is probably going to trigger a new escalation in the in the sense of foreign involvement in libya and i think that is this is the much complicated he sure because hes gone out slowed down even mom i diplomatic process that at the moment is completely that yeah you mentioned some of those details or whos involved in libya this very interesting report came out finally was published last week although im normally based at the u. N. And most of us journalists there managed to get a copy of it in advance its a panel of experts this is set up by the u. N. Security council to try and find out whats really going on let me quote you from this report jordan turkey and the United Arab Emirates of routinely and sometimes blatantly supplied weapons implying little effort to disguise the source of an auto identify the presence of charity and Sudanese Armed groups in support of forces affiliated with the g n a and. A like memet quite damning stuff there because of course turkey is supporting the internationally recognized government but the other part of the International Law or there the numerous u. N. Security Council Resolutions is theres a total arms embargo no one is allowed to send arms to any of the parties in the. Well 1st of all i want to clarify a point with regards to the exclusive Economic Zone between turkey and with you know with regards to the maritime deal 1st likely there is it depends how we interpret International LawInternational Maritime law whether we take the the the islands as the mainland or do we take the mainland and countermeasure the Continental Shelf there so thats a point with regard to the greek islands when it comes to be sending troops to support the Libyan Government i mean this has been the demand argument of russia president in syria the fact that ever and a government whether we recognize them or not or you know a government in the u. N. Has invited russia to support syria on the grounds of turkey when it is you know if there is an international arrogant is going to be ok with them as and then that is my met moment you make your point stuff how you want to have all the most points you can come back and i went to the point where you can in the moment stuff ok but im not well i always thought i had made my point you know the idea ill come back to the caribbean i can tell but grant. Let me let me say one recognize this this sentence we always have receiving the name of the government in tripoli there are the u. N. Recognize gum government was the source of legitimacy is the National Organization of the government itself where there is whether there is has been. Was you know what are done on by the illegitimate. Legislature which is about limits in Eastern Libya and we have to remember that the. The the political agreement that was signed isnt spread out and morocco in the 70 december that there are the diversity which is tomorrow. Insisted in article 3 of the 3 men that the government when the president ial council actually is not the government should gain the confidence of the parliament in Eastern Libya by vote by open war that never happened thats one thing the other thing is if we are going to stick to the idea that because this government is acknowledged by the un which was a big mistake in the party of the on then the whole thing would just collapse it doesnt that mean that they had to mysie of National Governments in any country does not mean anything and anymore we dont ok ok mr cain was in apparent story of going to iraq you know to have a say and weve got to get this moving on a dozen of us and i want to bring them about i want bring them back in a bit before i bring them back in you say internationally recognized where does that come from it comes from the u. N. Security council and their resolutions which are legally binding memet well i know but we are a much tougher we have to all have a go we have never met her. So i so i mean i dont know where we have left the discussions at this point but what i want to underline is that turkey has made a deal actually 2 deals one maritime deal and a military with libya with the Libyan Government which is like you said internationally recognized. And legally binding when and when decision is made by the Us Security Council so if we look at the small details on the ground we can we can actually lose ourselves in it because this is too asian like my previous speakers said very conflict i mean very complex on the ground but if we look at the Bigger Picture we can see a huge foreign involvement youve mentioned some names of the countries but theres actually more countries like france for example has also theres been reports that for you know exposing their involvement in libya so lets look at the Bigger Picture we can see a huge foreign involvement for at least be a to actually reach stability and National Consensus and you must be established around you know internationally backed government and international. Actors in libya must and this is why im not going to let mr holder out his door and does not permit as i have time crimes that you are come on i want to where im not able to poke a put my points across no doubt but what you have put you have put your point across and we have to bring what everyone into this this person caution because then we go back to that panel of experts report weve mentioned both of the other guests of mention all of the Different Countries that are now involved in that what is interesting is that theres no mention of those russian mercenaries that we know are supporting have to in this u. N. Report and ive done a bit of digging at the u. N. And im being told no the panel of experts are working on that they just didnt have the evidence together but how much of a game changer do you think is the involvement of russia supporting after this stage. Well i think that if the level of russian involvement in the sense of the bargain at a company is reaching the level that we have seen now on social media spent of evidence and they suggest that Russian Troops or Russian Wagner companies troops are actually fighting on the front line in southern tripoli that came be a kind of game changer in giving d. N. A. Much more power to finally and to tripoli but we also have to highlight the fact that the bio allows shots of the u. N. Resolution and the arms embargo for libya is not something new is not a fast rapid by the u. N. Panel of experts are highlighting these continuation of violation we drag us to believe and this is something has to do we remember go has to do with the validation of human rights so we are in a very complicated situation in which everyone is actually not abiding to International Law moment id like to bring you in again specifically on the russians because the dynamics between the russians and turkey not just on libya but syria as well its a most complicated love hate relationship isnt it. Our day youve put it very well it is it is a love and hate relationship so but what good thing here is how is the fact that mr add on it mr putin are able to use their pragmatic. Diplomatic. How do you see a person out there and theyre able to actually communicate this fight their disagreements or how this will unfold in libya i think its something you know we have to wait and see because yes in syria they have been on the opposite sides but they have been able to agree on certain terms to in libya in egypt for example there or in the Northern Syria but how this will of hold in libya is something that will again depend on i think the leaders the leaders of the 2 countries how they will be able to keep the diplomatic channels open and whether they will able to compromise from each others position to reach a solution there otherwise if turkey can act turkey comes to a confrontation with do russian backed forces and there is a direct involvement of the 2 of militaries there that will complicate things between the 2 countries ok let me bring in more stuff for the person who clearly i think has the hardest job or at least one of the hardest jobs is the u. N. Envoy gas on sanaa may he had a plan in april it was completely torpedoed by have to as actions now hes planning to have an International Conference in berlin thats been repeatedly delayed then hes trying to get the libyan parties together then he sposed to organize a constitutional referendum then hes supposed to have an election is any of that going to happen moustapha. Well i doubt that very much i doubt that plus the fact that what what is really Missile Defense and im a sucker from the malaysian governments whenever it takes place is due to important issues you know regardless what the political gross inside libya itself one is the international recommitment if you like again to reinforce the embargo on libya from live arm and supply fighters and im asian and to the country should be stopped and should be ferried in a verifiable way and the other one is a bully most likely if he can get all countries concerned about libya like turkey into nice and more like france local regional countries like egypt in the eyes armies if he can get them somehow to keep away from the hot potato inside libya as a stub rowboats ing even ideas for him he has enough ideas to form the bosses they come to like if only he gets the help from from those those countries ok most of the power coming towards the end with the underbelly coming towards the end about this is gushing and i like very quickly because this has been an appalling time for libyans 42 years of gadaffi almost 9 years of conflict and chaos really just an assailant seach do you have any hope that things are going to get better or are they going to get worse petrol for worst mustapha well i think it will get better but only through for some point 33 hours on their way. Mammals this man it even every started it will not go well i said he had to be brief mehmet do you think its going to get better or worse any hope for libyans. Well i always like to keep my keep the hopes high but it may we after going through a difficult road for a better or a better day in libya lodovico your prediction of where things stand do you think things are going to get better or worse. My view is dead it will be actually had a correction of this huge question in libya up to the conference that the u. N. Is trying to organize thank you to all our guests mustafa tory mehmet sialic and of eco carlino a fascinating topic on the worrying situation in libya you can watch this another editions of inside story any time by visiting our website look down there aljazeera dot com were on Facebook Facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story and find us on twitter where at a. J. Inside story from all the team here in doha of louis james bays see you soon. The fact. 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