Transcripts For ALJAZ Saudi Aramco The Company The State 20240713

To the lawyer for. The horrendous over the 1st notice to know the. Whole long. Term a lot more of this thing more. Devoted to terrorism well the of the takesh president said he would oppose a key nato defense plan the Baltic States if Member States refused to recognize kurdish fighters in syria as terrorists. They said needs to act in a proactive manner against 3 its pros by the terrorist organizations its inevitable that nato is in need of readjusting itself against todays terrorist threats we expect our allies to display strong cooperation with us against the 3 pts we are facing and President Trump has also warned the European Union to shape up trade trump says the u. S. Is being treated unfairly and things will get very tough for the e. U. If it doesnt change donald trump has threatened tariffs on french products and responds to a new french tax on Technology Giants trump believes u. S. Fans like google being targeted Iranian State television has acknowledged for the fast time that Security Forces shot and killed people it describes as rioters during antigovernment protests the demonstrations began after the government increased fuel prices. Police in democratic republic of congo say 5 people were killed during protests in beni on monday demonstrators are upset about what they say is a lack of u. N. Protection from armed rebel groups catherine so is in goma the largest city in east india and she explains how the government is responding to the unrest. Have been talking to. Our producer there who say that its calm this morning. All day yesterday of you know running battles between Security Forces and protesters the military effectively taking over control of the streets in that press conference we heard yesterday from the Army Spokesperson saying that now the protests have dangerous because theyve been in the process have been infiltrated by these armed elements who did not mention from which group this people are coming from but i did speak to the governor of north who says that they believe its my my own mexicos moderate hit historic levels with 127 deaths reported on sunday thats the highest number in a single day since records began in 1907 many are now questioning the new president s strategy to tackle drug cartels hong kong leader kerry says new u. S. Law supporting protesters are an unnecessary interference the law was signed last week could limit trade with hong kong if the chinese territories autonomy is jeopardized months of antigovernment protests have plunged hong kong into a recession for the 1st time in decades for the malaysian Prime Minister najib razak has been on the witness stand for the 1st time to defend himself against corruption allegations the High Court Trial has to do with a multibillion dollar scandal at malaysias state fund known as one m d be accused of illegally receiving about 10000000. 00 when he was in office hes pleaded not guilty to all the charges which include Money Laundering and abuse of power. A powerful typhoon has struck the philippines main island of luzon forcing almost a quarter of a 1000000 people from their homes its the 20th typhoon to hit the philippines just this year well those are the headlines do join me for more news here after saudi aramco the company and the state stay with us. It seemed like a great idea the Worlds Largest Oil Producing company pumping millions of barrels a day to become the Worlds Largest ever traded stock on porsche can have just met the highway see it for yeah were not looking. To be asleep and over ambitious prince eager to make his mark as a reformer wanted to partially trade saudi aramco for a fellow you ation of 2 trillion dollars but the venture failed to get off the ground and the princes vision 2030 now seems blurry. Saudi aramco is almost like the basis of politics in saudi arabia they are always intrinsically tied everybody in saudi arabia in one way or another is a beneficiary saudi aramco. Arabia needs a strong rand paul and vice versa as well the history of saudi aramco is the history of saudi arabia transforming itself from an isolated Tribal Society into a global presence. Get it right you reap a windfall get it wrong and the risk is huge the whole saudi economy whats at stake. All the balance the hollow that you face the greens and the living. And the way they run the risk of being toppled royal family could be running for the whole. Issue is really you know is an i. P. O. Best for the company and when you look at graeme coke the company you have to realize that unlike other companies. Operated for years without ever imagining and. So theyve never had to make decisions. For somebody maybe going to be publicly listed or wed like to publish this heres how we need to have our finances a great heres the kind of growth that we need to be showing in our Financial Statements to make investors see our value. Analysts have never followed around because it was never seen as a potential investment and now thats changed around for many years to have a strategy of form tar growth and long term revenue because their idea was that they were making money for the benefit of the saudi state if theyre going to i. P. O. Then theyve got a sudden they think about their quarterly reports and that make change how they invest and that may not be the best strategy for saudi arabia. The kingdom holds about 16 percent of the worlds oil reserves its the largest exporter of petroleum among opec countries and that means its economy relies heavily on oil 90 percent of exports 87 percent of budget revenues nearly half of g. D. P. Comes from oil. Towering over these numbers is the company which digs out refined and exports that oil it pumps one out of every 8 barrels of oil in the world and its the only company which can produce a barrel of oil for less than 10. 00. Says it employs 65000 people but creates direct and indirect work for hundreds of thousands in the came so if its doing so well why let it go. I think there was a strong case for the i. P. O. And there still is for the selling off the stake of saudi aramco and there are lots of reasons for it now its been talking about diversifying its economy for years i think the specter of. Climate action has finally made the saudis get serious about it and really the only way to diversify is through aramco i mean aramco is the source of revenues that saudi state needs to build other economic sectors even and the reason is big and i took on these you know in the middle east but still this deeply deeply starts that some day a sample of the oil will be depleted pretty exhausted so they have to thing that you know you have to be fired here and have to get the economy was kind of ironic youre going to be relying on oil to diversify away from fossil fuels so if you think about saudi risk its 100 percent owner of this company that supplies almost 100 percent of its government budget ok if they if it sees a risk to to that Company Going to far off risk its do you need to start diversifying that risk and passing some of that along to Foreign Investors is one way of doing it. Concerns about radical changes in strategy put a spanner in the works for saudi aramco is public listed for the 1st time in its history the company would have to disclose everything i think when you consider the size and scope and the opportunity theres a lot of emotion and also a lot of momentum and sometimes a momentum and emotion get rolling you may lose sight of the reality of what you had to do when it came to. Affectively being now an open Public Company before my. Vision 2030 was unveiled as a master plan for Socio Economic reforms as a result women can drive cinemas have begun to pop up. Mohamed bin so moms aim was to reorient the saudi economy away from oil and reassure investors that saudi arabia is stable and progressive. A lot has changed since the princes International Public relations drive the efforts to convince businessmen to feel comfortable working in the kingdom also faced a blow when top saudi business kingpins were put under arrest in an opaque Anti Corruption drug and as a cascading effect there has been flight of capital reduced Foreign Investment increased saudi borrowing and a halt on saudi aramco its i. P. O. The increase in internal repression inside the kingdom you know locking up of folks inside the the ritz carlton a lot of those were heads of Family Businesses or Large Companies or big conglomerates you know that gives for investors pause. The murder of one journalist has washed away the veneer of change and quashed Investor Confidence you know its tough going for democracy im asking for people to be allowed to speak for that we need to make. The interest of a stakeholder never get priority over the kingdom the privatization process would mean saudi oil reserves will be up for scrutiny and to ramp those finances will be in the public eye. You go from mining a business where you have endless resources and no oversight to one day having to register your company with the exchange and have to disclose every single number. The companys had over the last 5 to 10 years every piece of cap ex every decision thats been made every partnership every single thing you john is now in the public purview why the move. On. I think begin by. Because. If youre a private company thats run so well its painful because you have answer a lot of question but not nearly as painful as after you take peoples money. Those saudi economists who dared to raise concerns about the princes ambitious 2030 plans are in jail now you. Need to know that youre not a candidate couldnt know that you had. A day before the murder prominent economist is samo samo was indicted on terrorism related charges his crime was providing analysis some of which explained that a high valuation of aramco could mean that the kingdom will not get any oil revenue for decades because all of it will go into a ramp oh controlled by shareholders. In the beginning stages you have to take anyones money because it is just disclosing to the exchanges heres how we run our business heres why you should be comfortable listing us you then go out to raise capital. And once youre taking someone elses money they own those shares and youre a company for the people by the people you know not a company for the Management Management or the or the king. And the transitions massive. That changeover from state control to a public list which began in 2017 is now shelved for years to come here rahm coexecutors have also left or been moved. So that process for a company like this probably a year and a half so like a tech start up for you have a slide presentation and some hope you have a business that changes Global Markets for decades and decades so its a process that will be expansive. It will be intrusive. And it will be transformative. Saudi aramco places the kingdoms reserves at 261000000000 barrels of oil but that magic number with no real 3rd party audit has remained more or less constant for nearly 30 years since the 1980 s. There have been rising production changes in technology and no announcements of Major Oil Discoveries in the kingdom other oil giants such as shell and exxon have revised down their reserves during this period. If on average saudi production was at 9000000 barrels a day in the last 30 years a ram co has pumped out nearly 100000000000 barrels without a dent in its 261000000000 reserves and the jurys out on how much they actually have and what its worth. Looking at their reserves figures you know makes if you look too closely at it you start to wonder how it can stay roughly constant from year to year when theyre theyre producing an export and so much oil every year this closure of the reserves its a top secret in saudi arabia and i think thats a significant concern on the part of aramco executives they treat their reserves with kid gloves bare duty is to get the most out of these reserves in the best way possible the reserve confidence will only be consistent with 3rd parties verifying the information thats got to be done through regulatory fashion that everyones comfortable it cant just be something a company says and and hopes is the case youve got to verify. Whatever other qualities god may have given the saudis he gave them a lot of wealth in the ground and thats not going to go away so we want might quibble over the over the reserves. But you know the saudis have the ability to do fracking. They havent even started basically. But would the possibility of higher reserves be enough for investors to finance a room cose i. P. O. Probably the biggest downside is the transparency that would have resulted around saudi reserves saudi oil reserves that doesnt change very much from year to year and really hasnt changed much over the past couple of decades it doesnt give much insight beyond the single number you know around 260000000000 barrels if saudi aramco would have listed shares in the New York Stock Exchange of the london Stock Exchange the regulators would force saudi arabia to come clean on all of its reserves you know how much of that is proven probable or otherwise i think thats a tough sell within the kingdom within saudi aramco and within the ministry and all the way up to the head of state i dont think so do you arabia is. Not trustworthy when it comes to their reserves i think their reserves are there but the capacity is another question the saudi aramco has never produced 12 and a half 1000000 barrels a day and has never come within about a 1000000 barrels a day of that aramco says that it can reach that level of capacity after a period of about 6 months of additional investment right so it cant just twist a few valves and crank up an extra 2000000 barrels a day i can remember on one occasion. Sitting in the office of the. Minister petroleum we did not know that i understood arabic. When one of his hades came rushing in. And said weve got weve proved the reserves in this particular new field theyve found and he said well how much is it made the 3000000000. 00 barrels and he said oh its too small cap it well thats twice the alaska reserve. If you had full access to to ramp those reserves figures and you know other inside details about its Revenue Streams and whatnot you know anybody with a smartphone could could 2nd guessed saudi minister you know right now when the when the oil minister goes to vienna to speak in public at a you know tech meeting and you can see him surrounded by hoards of reporters each shoving their voice recorder in his face to catch a cold you know snippet of you know what he says about you know saudi plans saudi reserves saudi Oil Production. You know sort of saudi Market Strategy the world would be is quite is dependent on the oil minister for information you know sort of on the walk the. You know the secrets of whatever and co was going to do also you know you put those there with that information out there its out there for everyone. We should just be dynamic and responsive the reserves matter because the reserves and output give saudi arabia the regional and International Clout as the largest producer in the Oil Producing club of nations known as opec vacation travel watching billions and billions and billions of dollars of industry get moved by opec. And opec being a saudi driven organization they have to be meticulous the company is so good at what it does that that also brings its leaders a certain amount of political clout when it comes to opec and when it comes to other dealings with other countries a practice about the capo and. The early ones boost their belies the oil price at the some extent in that it you need therefore bag i think its still a bought them through how then we can bring the best applies at a price but its the. Not the prize that benefits are going to produce or at the prize that also benefit the producer and consumer. The studio for the were going to come aboard in a situation with everything focused on fundamentals focused on addressing the Global Markets needs quarter reliable supply is literally them saudi arabia is the keystone in opec it is the big dog its the ringleader if you will within opec opec members maintain a little bit here and there no one has more than 1000000000 Barrels Per Day of Spare Oil Production Capacity that that i know made chains that that kind of level of spare capacity. At you know as as a policy that saudi arabia saudi aramco typically maintain you know a w2w barrels 2000000 barrels a day of Oil Production capacity that they dont use ok so no profit Oriented Firm would ever do this you wouldnt invest all the billions in developing oil fields and pipelines and Storage Facilities and production infrastructure and then just leave it dormant saudi aramco has done it at the behest of the saudi state. And you know its the key aspect in the saudi u. S. Partnership the ramp those ability to bring more Oil Production online in its willingness to cut back at times and markets are oversupplied its going the crux of the the u. S. And Saudi Strategic partnership. Saudi arabia if we broke with them i think your oil prices would go through the roof ive kept them down theyve helped me keep them down right now we have Lower Oil Prices are relatively id like to see it go down even lower. Billions of dollars are treated at the Worlds Largest Stock Exchange its business as usual on wall street but like other exchanges around blue. World also tried to sway saudi aramco to live in new york even the u. S. President weighed in on his preferred medium of communication but the strict requirements remained a deterrent for the i. P. O. Which was being called the Worlds Largest offering it would be a double whammy for mohamed been so modest to not get the 2 trillion dollars valuation and having to compromise on not listing on the Worlds Largest stock market. Youre the Worlds Largest oil producer and you dont list in the Worlds Largest Stock Exchange thats definitely something i definitely lesser access to capital new york is terribly complicated by virtue of the 911 hangover so i thought from the beginning it was quite you know it was a nice thing to dangle before the americans but it was probably not going to come to us you know there arent that many exchanges that can do this so london and new york were the 2 main ones that you know that they could really handle Something Like this both of which have pretty stringent transparency requirements new yorks more south. London was signaling that it was willing to roll back. Some of its transparency requirements and make a special deal for aramco the princes i. P. O. Hit the brakes from a lofty 2 trillion dollar valuation to uncertainty about the size of saudi reserves for litigation risks to stringent requirements from Stock Exchanges but the reality was different from the political statements. I think that 2 trillion dollar number 0 is significant for the saudis but not significant for the rest of them are talking about a business that dwarfs almost every business in the us and p. 500. 00 i would say 2 trillion dollars is a high valuation its not unachievable when you look at what the size of it is whether its a trillion trillion after 2 trillion. The scales all relative its massive and so if you have a business earning 23400000000000. 00 a year theres a multiple put on it. And the markets going to say well even though youre a trillion dollar business give or take whether youre one trillion or 3 trillion is going to be dependent on your earnings and your decline curves and your gross strategy what type of growth percent is going to put on your business its a huge number theres no question about it whether you look at the high level we look at the low level its huge its a huge i. P. L. Huge company and so i guess what youre asking me is how do they expect to sell it i think theres enough money out there that can cover it but if on the other hand the Global Economy should begin to take down would then its going to be a hard sell they would have to lower the price putting a line in the sand is is strong and smart from your own perspective but the markets going to determine what they feel comfortable about buying. Your stocking thats worth what someone tells you its worth but we hope so when my have been someone announced the remco i. P. O. And he basically said were looking for a valuation of 2 trillion dollars thats the largest valuation of all time for any company and thats of those for the whole company they were never talking about selling any more than 5 percent so it seems like theyre looking to raise 100000000000. 00 which is a large amount but not that much so the quip but the question is really is a ram co valued at 2 trillion dollars what are their oil reserves which is really tends to be the bulk of what makes up an oil Company Valuation now were also has a lot of other assets around the world not oil not upstream oil assets but they own shares in refineries in china in south korea they own oil Storage Facilities in japan that they own the Largest Oil Refinery in the United States and they also have a lot of research and development things going on theyve also got petro chemical and Oil Refineries in saudi arabia so the company is worth more than what they dig out of the ground and sell but does that get us to 2 trillion dollars the answer also depends on what the price of oil is at the time of the i. P. O. And when they announced the i. P. O. We were in the midst of a very period of very low well prices so you can see i would be very hard to reach a 2 trillion dollars in say 2017 when the price of oil was you know 50. 00 or 55. 00 a barrel. Its an indirect devaluation of the saudi economy which is reliant on a whim. So its not just a company with a proposed 2 trillion dollar price tag. Theres a major problem with valuing the company. What is it thats being offered some slice of the overall company. But no direct ownership of any part of it how much are the reserves after all are they understated or overstated what level of efficiency does saudi aramco have in comparison with other oil companies. Where is the future market. Mohamed been so months vision was to take the money from the i. P. O. To revamp the Saudi Public Investment Fund which would play a leading role in developing non Oil Industries but that fund has already started borrowing money instead of stacking up oil revenues the 10s of billions expected from a ram code never arrived and global banks provided their 1st ever loan of 11000000000. 00 the i. P. O. It seems to be from what people say was designed to generate cash for the Public Investment fund of saudi arabia which is designed to make investments for the future not to use for the saudi budget not to use for those kind of projects but really a Sovereign Wealth Fund to rely on you know when oil is no longer foreign commodity here you have a company which has been deliberately nontransparent its not listed on any market it has no shareholders other than the kingdom it self to which to report in saudi arabia is not a notably free press environment and it is not a democracy and accountability is uncertain. This decision to make the heroes of Europe Asia Africa the middle east oceania. Welcome to a stage made the legends make an entrance and makes a mistake pete for the us becoming one its best to take such a short to say i want to be. This the protocol to. Make cuts youll go. Out and im in doha with the top stories on aljazeera u. S. President nato chief u. N. Stoltenberg have criticized the french leda ahead of the opening of the alliance as some as in london they have taken issue with among remarks that nato is brain dead never serves a greater purpose in going to be unfair to the United States because the United States is very disproportionate. And i married into a president who grows at nearly great i think its very seldom seen a lot of difference. But in many regards the. Well the turkish president said he would oppose a major nato defense plan for Baltic States if Member States refused to recognize kurdish fighters in syria as terrorists nature says its trying to resolve the dispute the us. Needs to act in a proactive manner against 3 its proposed by the tear is doogan as a sions its inevitable that nato is in need of readjusting itself against todays terrorist threats we expect our allies to display strong cooperation with us against the 3 pts were facing. While President Trump has also warned the European Union to shape up on trade trying to saying the u. S. Is being treated unfairly and things will get very tough for the e. U. If it doesnt change donald trump has threatened tariffs on french products and response to a new French Digital Services tax trump believes u. S. Firms like google are being targeted Iranian State television has acknowledged for the 1st time that Security Forces shot and killed people it describes as rioters during antigovernment protests the demonstrations began after the government increased fuel Prices Police in democratic republic of congo say 5 people were killed during protests in beni on monday demonstrators are upset about what they say is a lack of u. N. Protection from rebel groups mexicos moderate historic levels with 127 deaths reported on sunday thats the highest number in a single day since records began in 1907 many are now questioning the new president s strategy to tackle drug cartels. 4 malaysian Prime Minister logic has been on the witness stand for the 1st time to defend himself against corruption allegations the trial has to do with a multibillion dollar scandal at malaysia a state fund known as one m. T. B. Well those are the headlines now its back to saudi aramco the company and the state stay with us. The kingdom is home to the most important religious sites for muslims but saudi arabia is a real source of power is it spoiled well into remco converts that black gold into dollars and riyadh so. Many academics experts and Oil Economist either refused or refrain from speaking to us as soon as they heard its about the kingdoms most potent economic firepower. The saudis can use oil as a weapon. Opec did it in 1973 they put an embargo and what happened to the price of oil. It shot up over 100. 00 a few years ago we saw oil prices tumble. Created that. It was the saudis. They flooded the market. Why they wanted to put shallow oil out of business well it backfired. The partnership between the u. S. And saudi arabia rests on linked interests many of which have either disappeared or are now problematic they basic bargain of. Preferred access to energy in return for Security Protection but the United States is now the swing producer internationally for oil given fracking. And we are an Energy Exporter now dependent on the go the support that the saudis provided by making American Foreign policy i doubt that acceptable to most things. Now the muslim world is so divided the United States is there islamophobia if that bargain is gone saudi arabia also controls of vast media empire for decades its been tens of millions of dollars to lobby cultural institutions think tanks universities even government all to improve the kingdoms image thats jumped from 10000000. 00 spent in 2016 to more than 27000000. 00 today used to fuel a sophisticated saudi influence machine that money shapes policy and perceptions and it also covers up criticism of the kingdom much of this was revealed in 2015 when wiki leaks published thousands of cable exchanges between saudi diplomats posted abroad and the foreign ministry. Houston texas is an oil town. Its a testament to saudi soft power and how big saudi money is securely invested in the us regardless of what saudi arabia is accused of or even a local marathon here is sponsored by a ram come but whether its 911. 00 or the murder of the saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi it old continues to cast a shadow over the kingdoms image abroad. In terms of jasta which is the law that was passed basically saying that for the says can sue the saudi government for the role and 911. 00. That has been put forward as a reason not to list on the New York Stock Exchange. Im not a lawyer but it would not be a real concern at all evidence that at least thats available that the u. S. Government has presented an declassified is not significant enough to probably convict or to get. A ruling you know to be able to sue the saudi them so theres that but say it was. Then the question is ok so what kind of assets can you go after and if youre saying that aramco is an asset of the saudi government and therefore should pay well theres already a lot of aramco investment in the United States that they can go after they can go after moti by the largest refinery they have Research Centers all over there is around Headquarters Services company in in america i think that thats a convenient excuse to give but if they wanted to list on the New York Stock Exchange its not really a significant barrier. Motif as the largest refinery in the United States which goes through old whopping 6 100000 barrels a day its more than 2000 employees work near the gulf of mexico but this behemoth facility isnt u. S. Its a subsidiary of the centerpiece of Saudi Crown Prince mohammed bin vision 2030 he wants to expand the Petro Chemicals business instead of the kingdoms heavy reliance on oil sales motif is so influential in port arthur that bill tiva security sent a policeman to stop us from filming they even called the police to hold us until a very good question why journalists were filming their facilities. Despite tight control over media and any opinion which doesnt fall in line with that of the kingdom efforts to privatized had been a hard sell at home. With very little accountability of the ruling family radical changes are viewed with suspicion by many ordinary saudis. One of the major objections by people in the kingdom was their fear that the money would go into the pockets of the royal family rather than be used in a transparent way to provide Government Services to the people in other words waste fraud and responded front our concern on the part of the public theyre also concerned by foreigners i think the conference is trying to create an environment conducive to Foreign Investment but events things keep happening questions keep getting raised that make that difficult. Geo political power is to is the exclusive access to information about saudi reserves they hold that information very close and they let it out and in dribs and drabs its almost like the strategic ambiguity around the Israeli Nuclear weapons capability they release what they choose to release when they choose to release it thats a source of power very similar with the oil reserves in saudi arabia. This is not the 1st time reforms have been promised in saudi arabia or the 1st time when those promises have been left up by western powers and lauded by the media. Since the 1950 s. The New York Times which likes to be called the newspaper of record has given similar coverage to saudi kings and princes the media has given them titles such as trailblazers and performers similar to the current crown prince even the glitzy 2030 roadmap hints at promises. Well the vision itself is hardly new this was largely drawn out there by consultants mckinsey in particular. And they were able to do that quickly because the ministry of planning in saudi arabia had all these ideas. There to be gathered up so the vision isnt new the drive for change in the kingdom transformative drive was also not new in many ways i had been so many resembles his grandfather abdelaziz of sewed different methods of blows these United Kingdom with tribal marriages bewildering number of marriages and divorces brought different groups in the society and it into his family he conducted a war in the saudi south. Which is on a sea of which took land from yemen and made it definitively part of saudi arabia he suppressed religious uprisings there are many similarities one could say and it worked whether the current drive will work or not is unknown and so really not the 1st time claims of reform have been made in saudi arabia for example king feisal when he became king he made a lot of very important changes and reforms in saudi arabia that before that the government had been spending very recklessly and carelessly under king his brother king so i would it was from a port actually that he would carry around in his pocket of the budget and whenever he would see a minister say in the halls or something he would question that many would say how are you spending this money what are you doing with it so this is not the 1st time that that reforms have been tried probably every previous king in saudi arabia has announced it to some extent and there have been one of the key aspects i think that a lot of the reform plans always include mega projects. And in my mind those mega projects never really pan out and so those thats always something to be wary of you can hold up the ramp i. P. O. Is the key example of that but there were lots of other privatisations that would have really helped kind of. Move saudi arabias economy from various state status based shoe a much more diverse and vibrant private economy so for example they wanted to sell parts of the airlines of of Different National companies and it really almost seems like the reverse is happening that the state is actually more involved in the economy as opposed to less involved and that i think is probably not a good sign for developing a diverse and vibrant private economy but at the same time there are ships in the whole channel and social expectations that have to occur in saudi arabia and so those changes i think a setting a year of 2030 is probably very. Ambitious i think the saudis realize that the time has come that they must change the way they run the economy where they do business otherwise what would happen in. Iraq look what happened when i read what happened with libya its not too far fetched to think that that can happen with saudi arabia. Yemen or they just want to know and i wouldnt say yeah i mean you know that could tell you the good work done to them you know overall its a whole city below me and the leadership is not spotless but there were not this one with him 100 other she kind of the time of them that are now that she come to help you know have a she can be a you. Did you make them. Help. The ongoing mourning in yemen is not just creating a global pressure but also a strain on the saudi economy in addition tens of thousands of Foreign Workers have been expelled from saudi arabia the governments reduction in subsidies for fuel and utilities has become a burden its had to borrow aggressively to plug the budget deficit. Well the budgetary crisis is not new i did have a conversation with the late then crown prince abdullah later King Abdullah who made a real effort in the late ninetys had to institute a tax system other than that. And the conversation went like this i said to him you know i think you have a problem here because for example in the United States if i take a section of desert thats a part of nevada and i either invest my own money or i borrow money from a bank and i build an Industrial Estate a park and a related community and i dont ask the government for anything the government still has to come up with all sorts of Services Police education and Waste Water Management road maintenance even if i build the roads initially and so forth. And the same is true in saudi arabia if except even more so because at that time at least saudi arabia was heavily subsidizing electricity and water and other things that people needed so i said you know the difference is that in nevada every cent will come back in the form of increased government revenue. And so that the even the debt will be replaced by a stream of revenue that makes the government whole that enables. Higher level of service whereas in saudi arabia not on how it comes back basically you have a sister and i said in rich private prosperity impoverish is the government the opposite of normal economics so ive said to people. Ill give you a real nigel if theyre Real Parliament and a role in allocating tax resources but in order to do that youve got to pay taxes and he said i came very close to getting a consensus on this in the end i failed the merchants particularly in the Western Province would not agree so its difficult to to rationalize a Big Investments in a country thats already a hard sell for investors anyway because of you know the visa requirements and red tape and you know lifestyle issues in saudi arabia a lot of a lot of foreigners its not a you know considered a great destination for you know 2nd homeowners or for you know foreigners who are looking to move their families and put their kids in the local schools you know they would go to dubai or abu dhabi or doha to go to the region. So its you know sat here has never been a real easy sell for Foreign Investment for the size of its economy f. B. I. Flows there arent proportionally as big as they are for some of the more open economies around the region. Perhaps the biggest challenge to the saudi economy comes from the wave of change in the way the country is being run through the muhammad been so moms pursuit of vision 2030 has upset the traditional order in 2015 when. Things on my own ascended the throne in short order within a year old power was essentially transferred into the hands of his favorite son prominence of mine this destroyed the consultative tradition. Within the royal family and more broadly in the kingdom here you have a young man who has great ambition drive imagination. Determined to change things impatient and not willing to wait for consultation so a lot of egos have been bruised a lot of interests have been shaken many people have lodged objections to this fundamental change in the Constitutional Order in saudi arabia this is before you get to things like. The added corruption drive which. Exacted huge amounts of money from the wealthy elite in the kingdom. Kings on mon will be the last king of his generation it had always passed from brother to brother to brother and its clear even though there are still some living brothers or signs of up to ozzys it has been decided that samana will be the last of that generation. The next generation there are a lot of princes there and a lot of them had a great deal of control and in certain segments of the economy and and of Saudi Society and there always been kind of a balancing act that went on between these different segments of the royal family there been a lot of tensions produced basically traditionally in saudi arabia and again gulf arab societies general lady. Of the king or the or the i mean here the leader has the same responsibilities as the sheriff in a tribe theres really 2 responsibilities one is to. Ensure that decisions are taken by consensus after consultation he proclaims a consensus does not. Make a decision then impose it 2nd responsibility is to ensure that the less fortunate the poor share of the wealth so its a the government or the this case the leader must distribute columns charity to the needy the saudi state is built on these principles the 1st one has been that the compromise as power has been gathered into one man surrounds or perhaps to. The proud prince and his father the members of the family the ruling family who were previously consulted i feel excluded in many cases from the Decision Making process they would have all be and had to agree together on things almost like different shareholders and it does appear that that process is changing i would be cautious of of saying well its now different everything is different now its a one man show that may be the image that they would like to present to everyone but that doesnt mean that all of the other sources of power have necessarily been eliminated. In fact you know if enough brothers decide that the harvest online is not the right way that that couldnt be changed i think where its too early to write off that process and to say that he has fully consolidated power. Idealise again please tell us that that is what was said to be a good 533000000 dollars 545000000 dollars theres been a 3 year period from lucrative military contracts to support for each others wars there is a special relationship between the us president the saudi king and mohamed been some on the list right right there but that special relationship has been under stress like and i love the king king solomon but i said king. Were protecting you you might not be there for 2 weeks without us you have to pay for your village and. We filmed this during the period when the saudi government was officially denying that its agents murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi the government later confessed to the killing of the saudi consulate in istanbul and admitted it was a premeditated murder. A lot of fingers are pointed at the crown prince for allegedly ordering the killing in turkey but the u. S. President still has unwavering support for muhammad bin salma i dont know if anyones going to be able to complain that the crown prince there but i will say this i dont know i dont know but whether he did it or whether he did he denies it very manipulative his father denies it became very adamantly. The case remains open regardless of saudi denials and criminal sentences it risks the princes grip on power for an investment vision to. 2030 and aramco spy p. R. Despite several attempts and its subsidiaries did not respond to our request for interviews for. The killing of the saudi journalist that has put them in the spotlight and if they come forward and tell the whole truth of what happened. Then that will be a sign that theyre really ready for change if not. They may be faced with harsh. Economic sanctions. And if thats the case the market. Seems to be saying well saudi arabias economy is going to fall off a cliff on the Foreign Policy front the kingdom has flirted into a series of adventures none of which have turned out well it is stuck with a garrison along with others from the Gulf Gulf Cooperation Council in bahrain. Where unrest continues and shows no sign of abating. It is it has become. Really battered by syria which has been a transformative situation in the middle east brought the russians back in as the major foreign player for example. Saudi arabia has relationships with turkey have been badly damaged. By this it has. Seen fit to divide itself from qatar. And conduct a blockade which again shows no sign of going away and rich essentially divides the Gulf Cooperation Council irreparably and finally of course it is a gauged in a war in yemen with no clear objective that is feasible and no more terminations strategy. Saudi aramco said failure to launch and to Young Leaders stumble from one crisis to another are directly linked there is an urgency to rush into things but also a lack of experience. That is really like planning for the growth of a nation. Not the. Exit of an i. P. O. And the growth of the nation takes a lot more planning. And a couple months. Old to middling you see theyve pulled back i would guess because they recognize that this is a transformational moment its going to take. A lot more time and energy to get into the realm of the Public Markets if they ever get comfortable they may never be comfortable with i know there are elements within so deciding who dont want to see that change and they feel that this is too much and too soon and too big and the pushback from the government has been they need to be dragged kicking and screaming into these changes and fast is the way its going to be i see that as a much bigger backlash than even the religious or conservative people is really unemployment and saudis not taking jobs or on theyve made a big push to get rid of foreign labor and saudi arabia but the problem is that if youre not replacing that with saudi labor then youre not going to have a. An economy and people arent taking jobs and unemployment remains high despite there being jobs then youve got a significant problem and i see that really as the biggest threat to the changes they can make all the decrees they want but if people dont work people arent working and making money and they dont see that as a valuable part of their lives that and theyre not going to pacify people with movie theaters. Its all to me a function of how fast they want to get to their end goal which none of us know that the more theyre in the street is obviously the oil they need to be more open and thats to keep saudi arabia has to make it on its own for an extended never do and so far it seems to be having difficulty right now theres no substitute for oil so its not going to go away in the short term you know the writing is on the wall and. Saudis have ever read it. The Saudi Crown Prince is adamant that he is the harbinger of change he may have the desire but what he can actually achieve remains the big question. Thank. You. Had. Much of central brazil heavy rain so that all the crawls into colombia i would say we could well see a few shots pushing into one is there is also savile row over the next couple of days 33 on shoes day its a little bit cooler as we go through wednesday will some rain showers in the forecast but it should stay mostly dry in rio for the next couple of days rains they have it to the North Columbia also across into panama and also some rain on tuesday working its way across pleasure rico and on into the Dominican Republic a better day on wednesday and a warm day sun in kingston jamaica 31 celsius 24 and ivana in cuba no particular woman to the northeast of the United States monday was not a good travel day a huge winter storm working its way into the northeast this is how it looks in albania upstate new york plenty of snow around some areas whole ready picked up 30 centimeters according to the National Weather service on the sunday more on the way so as we go through choose day it does push away but not before its left new york with about 7 centimeters maybe 15 across into boston and then you can see here have some rain and some cloud on its way to the southwest of california 16 celsius and i on wednesday with a chance of showers on a cold day new york at 5 celsius. Whether sponsored by its own. New yorkers are very receptive to al jazeera because it is such an International City theyre very interested in that global perspective that al jazeera provides. 0. 0 again i missed and this is the news out live from coming up in the next 60 minutes. To essentially 28. 00 including this one youre going to be divisions over funding strategy and trade overshadow natures 70th anniversary summits and months. And takis president has warned nato he will oppose a baltic defense plan unless the alliance recognizes p. G. Fight