They are hub partners but germanys social democrats have just elected new leaders who want to leave and the locals grahams coalition so to the chancellor save her government and what does this uncertainty need for germany and for europe this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program im adrian figure in germany a social democrat so s. P. D. Have chosen to leaders who want to leave Angela Merkels grand Coalition Many of the Party Members say they want to focus on rebuilding support in the opposition the coalition between Angela Merkels christian democrats and the s. P. D. Was formed last year at the s. P. D. As new leaders ran on a joint ticket with a promise to renegotiate a Partnership Deal on issues of spending and Climate Policy its congress is expected to decide by next week on whether the policy will continue to support merkel but should the s. P. D. Decide to leave the chancellor has the option of leading a minority government or forming a new coalition with smaller opposition parties a snap election is also on the cards for one of the s. P. D. S new leaders dull but volatile boyens spoke about the importance of keeping his party strong. We are very aware that this is not a question of victory or defeat but this is a question of keeping this great social Democratic Party together and bringing together again where it has already moved apart a bit i think that this is not only something that is great fun but also a great challenge meanwhile chancellor merkel seem to use as the results have not changed the coalitions agreement because. We want to rule to a new world we have created a foundation for this and this internal decision of the does not change anything on the conversation of the coalition. Now we must not discuss a party but to look at the challenges germany is facing and to govern this country well and for that there is a foundation the correlation treaty between s. P. D. And c. D. U. And nothing changes that. Lets bring in our guests then for todays discussion from berlin were joined by thorsten bet up director of the Global Public policy institute from amsterdam via skype julian managing director of vocal europe a Foreign Affairs think tank and from london were joined by max for trap or thought of angle of merkel europes most influential leader gentlemen welcome to you all thorsten lets start with you does this change in leadership at the s. T. P. Mean that germany is now heading for an early election. Thanks for having me no i dont think it means that germany is heading for an early election at least not anytime soon if the social democrats actually decide under the new leadership to leave the coalition and thats a big if because the Party Convention still needs to decide in favor of it and then also the members of parliament the Parliamentary Group that has voiced some doubts whether they would follow such a vote they need to agree then the s. P. D. Ministers will just leave the coalition we have a budget for 2020 already agreed on and im going to america will just lead a minority government through our 2020 her argument will be this is out of a sense of National Responsibility germany has the e. U. Presidency in the 2nd half of 2020 we cannot afford to hold elections now plus there is a big constitutional hurdles anyway to have early elections in germany so i dont assume that merkel will leave office any time soon but shell govern with a forecast of c. D. U. Ministers if she has a minority government she can promote the c. D. U. Party leader and id come combo or 2 vice chancellor that can russia her image so in very much works in the favor of merkel and the city or if the social democrats decide to leave the coalition judy and the leadership of the s. T. P. Says that it wants to renegotiate the terms of the grand coalition what does it want and are its Coalition Partners willing to give them what they want so whats happening now is that the split there wants to rejigger should the Government Spending and the Climate Change policy which di so they do on the michael democrats have said is not on the table at school so was like a. D s but there will try and push for this whereas just now mark africa under said you could decide to push ahead for a model to government on berts also im going to mark. Ok matt can keep the grand coalition together would she try to struggle on with a minority government when we havent had a minority government before in jameys that would be a new departure but then again you new things can happen but i think. I think. Probably more for the social democrats to decide whether they want to to force the breakup of the coalition theres no guarantee that there would be a minority government if there were to be under some sort of scenario using some sort of constitutional shenanigan to get a new election they could become the 4th Largest Party i was reading an opinion poll from 4 from. This morning when i was driving in here and they actually behind the f. T. In the opinion polls so the social democrats even if theyre relatively strong. Lenda level at the state level where they have i think 7 out of the 16 premia ships in germany they are not in a strong position and for them to rock the boat would be the you know a callous act and also coming back to the question from before would they be able to negotiate any new Coalition Deal with the c. D. U. I think its extremely unlikely and it could come. Looking over her shoulder to the rights of flirtation math to the challenge oh could be the challenger to so theres no way that the cd you could give way on issues on the left of the party man what is going on within the s d p then this this shift to the left why would the s. T. P. Want to risk losing power and influence by putting the coalition at risk. I think one has to sort of perhaps even look at the labor party in britain and look at the internal workings of a Political Party like people join a Political Party because they have strong views now who lost the leadership election is actually the 3rd most popular politician in germany but a Political Party does not reflect the people at logs they reflect the membership and a lot of people in the social Democratic Party feel that they went way too far when. It was chancellor they have embraced many their right wing policies especially in social affairs issues and therefore i think they want to go back to basics they want to go you know solidify the base as its called they want they want to win votes back from the left party possibly even from the green party and they are looking towards a period in opposition where they can sort of cleanse themselves of of the being tainted by the by the but by association with the. Cd u. S. C. s you do you agree with that because the s. T. P. Find itself in embroiled in some kind of internal turmoil could could division over the direction of the policy be destabilising for it could end up tearing it apart. This is already happening i mean the this election is the result of this its a result of a very deep for teac within the party the social democrats have been in power in germany at the National Level for 16 out of the past 20 years they started out 20 years ago with more than 35 percent of the vote now theyre pulling a at about 13 to 17 percent so theyve flossed the popularity tremendously and the many Party Members just want out they want out of government they think they need to go in opposition but they dont really have a path there this election that brought to relatives nobody aging nobodies or lightweight the candidates to the to the helm of the of the party in a sense was very much a read its a geisha in off the gas shortages the reform that cut some while for spending that already thats when the when the Party Started tearing apart some of these wounds from the early 2000 set still havent healed. The challenge or the other candidate that last. Shot is very much an embodiment of the shorter centrist agenda now many just to long for return to whatever kind of core the s. P. D. Is supposed to be out about the leftist core and they hope that then they will fare better but its very hard to see if they jump out of the window nala say goodbye by a grand coalition we were tired of government of germany then in fact headed for elections whats the offer of the social democrats to the population say please vote for us we want to be an opposition thats not exactly a winning winning formula is quite tragic that none of the 2 canada to the pairs or dual is really off for the past what the future what social democracy in 10 years should be all about what what germany wont want to achieve in the in the coming 10 years none of the 2 fine. Honest to do all this really offered any sense any sense of that and neither does chancellor merkel for that matter so germany is very much adrift and dealing with its own internal divisions and much rather than looking to what the future at the moment ok julian i mean before we move on lets ask one more question about the s. T. P. You heard what torsten and matt was saying there is the partys dwindling popularity with voters simply because the party has moved too far towards the Political Center are its leaders right to do they need a reset i mean thats going to be the impression that people are going to be taking from this for example all of us has been said it is not doing very well the polling behind me going up they are almost level stuff on the there and some people could draw from this conclusion that theyve strayed from below them not taking enough socially democratic policies and putting it forward to the membership and pushing up towards the general public in germany and of course the problem when youre in coalition and we saw this and u. K. Where the dems thats quite frequently you become tainted by the brush of having the d. M. Majority party dictate in syria what exactly it wants as army goals to be and yes but there have more than likely been dragged so the sense of being seen as most of the party which is going to impact the popularity and we see that this could we could see that this is a move to attract the. To bring people back from the bring people back towards the local sensible social democratic policies and politics so id say this could be an explanation or. A think theres consensus among us here that the lection is possibly the least likely option but if there were to be a general election in germany who would benefit most to the greens the f. T. Which at least under its new leadership looks as though it will be moving further to the rice. No i think they if they would would do relatively well but they are in some ways an irrelevant thought because they are so far to the right that its inconceivable that they could join a coalition that might be people who sort of privately in the c. S. U. And possibly even a cd you would contemplate that but that would would would would really not go down well in germany at large i think the party that would would really do well its a green party we have had to pay nion poses a just in the green party could be even bigger than the c. D. U. Theres a lot of sort of focus on Environmental Issues the green party have. At the state level have have done well theyve showed they be efficient manages and so i think the green party would do well and i think in some ways almost like a realignment in german politics where the green party is going to be the main party of the left and of course what will be then interesting is to see if well get the socalled Jamaica Coalition or a coalition of the green party the cd you see as you and the liberals now they try to do that last time the liberals werent werent terribly keen and pulled out but i think that would probably be the the future but the a if t. Dont have coalition tensional and they dont have black my a potential so even if they were to get 15 percent of the votes. They will be politically speaking relatively irrelevant. After 10 years of stability and the angle of merkel where is germany headed right now will it be able to maintain its dominant. Economic and political position within the e. U. Thats a big question mark germanys very much adrift ever since the elections in 2017 germany has been extremely inward looking this called the socalled grand coalition was a very unhappy marriage from the get go only born out of the failure of the negotiations of the socalled Jamaica Coalition that then failed to come into existence its german is the current government doesnt show any path forward germans are divided still on issues of migration Climate Change and. Were wasting precious time actually to invest in a stronger europe a stronger europe that can defend itself also against an ever more aggressive china and were investing were failing to invest in our own in the strength of. Our own Industrial Base germany had a fantastic Economic Development for the most part over the past 10 to 15 years weve had a good run but its very unclear whether germany is well prepared for kind of ensuring prosperity of our economy in the future we should be investing and discussing this right now but rather we are in the kind of dealing with this kind of petty internal domestic political turmoil and germany is very much adrift its still a default big country in europe it wont just to become politically irrelevant way too big for this but right now were not assuming any sort of leadership role that weve kind of given that to french president calls now the more active figure on the european political scene. Julian. This this petty domestic incident internal turmoil is as thorsten put it to what extent is that diminishing germanys reputation for political stability and leadership within the e. U. Do you think well the problem is that its not simply d. A. P. As you domestic politics are going to be having an impact on this is the shift of balance thats occurring across europe so for example since the election is going on. Its very much been the case of microns been taken and the front seats in the european politics of the whole bunch of all of his commentary with his most recent comments on nato from has almost changed position of germany and that is becoming a far more active and far more visible presence and i dont necessarily think that is purely going to be an issue of germany becoming irrelevant germany losing its power its whats were likely to see is france and germany will switch places compared to where they were 5 or 10 years ago for example with france was seen as the problem child in europe the sort of the not very helpful partner who always made grandiose claims and graduates promises and never really delivered in german these case right now its the one the most powerful economies in europe if not the most powerful so thats wont go away unless germany somehow fulls into a recession in the coming year or 2 or the pending on how it becomes next chance for example if it because if its aka its likely that germany is going to loose lucky more presence and primarily for the fact that our cut tends to have lots of bits of agreements of president michel and may end up following in supporting his plans how ever i just want to go back to the point on the green party becoming more powerful its true that i think that the green party is the single highest Polling Party in germany right now if it wasnt for the city to say yes to a coalition thats happened that takes place every election. The governor would be the Biggest Party in the bundestag. Must undertake but that is going to have an effect on how the german politics is shaped and the us to these of the china russia the us even within europe with the Green New Deal luna may have even more power than we expect and this need may lead saddam having a more prominent position on maintaining its prominence when it comes to syria european politics man its going to go back to to the 1st part of what your view was saying that this this this potential for france and germany to to switch places almost within the e. U. But to what extent is france looking to exploit this this diminishing of germanys reputation. Well i think it frankly is quite fanciful because the French Economy is nowhere near as strong as the german one i. E. Think does does a good talk but im not sure he does the same kind of walk he can say slightly know what 2 things about nato and about europe but hes got his own problems hes never quite recovered from the she dacian situation he has in that a number of reforms which he was able to do because hes got a lot of majority in that samba nationality but they would also at some stage be french elections he is france in some ways is a great a problem child because we have 4 nationalities we dont have anything like 4 nationality i mean a if be appropriate to the right of whole notion of they would would not in any way gain power so france is not a state of i think the problem we have in europe at the moment is that we have a very chaotic situation in britain which in a years time could probably to a heart breaks it because i wont be a deal its a lead has not exactly a stable government spain is trying to find a government germany is wobbling a bit and france is doing a good talk a macro is doing the good talk but the stability in france is in the longer run its not to be taken for granted so i think the problem we have throughout europe is that we really need now to have stability in germany so as the other ones can get on with us squabbling and i think relatively speaking i mean stability in germany is not catastrophic is just used to having absolute stability in germany and therefore we panic a bit and we should probably be concerned but i think we also need to put this into perspective matt what extent is all of this this turmoil within germany that ultimately to deal with and Angela Merkels leadership i mean shes still chancellor of the she no longer needs. Policy. No thats not is a problem of course schroeder also stood down and when he didnt lead his own policy he lost some sort of influence i think again we need to put it into perspective Angela Merkel is still by by some distance the most popular politician in germany the 2nd most popular is what happened who is the green one of the 2 green leaders and then all of the most popular so but i think the problem is that hes very much in the sort of lame duck position if you saw the conference the c. D. U. Conference most this time she didnt talk she was just sitting there checking her phone and the problem that we have in europe is that were not quite sure who will be the next contender and the leader of the c. D. U. Or the its when i was sick a question in germany you know whos going to be the candidate for the chancellor for the for the c. D. U. And i mean come on bow is is is not a charismatic politician noise Angela Merkel but what shes shes struggling even if she was able to to you know go for this will you know back me a sacked me approach at the conference she doesnt look as sure footed as she could be and therefore people and talking about you know pseudo from from bev area could be a chance to candidate hes not that popular generally in germany and clearly schmetz could come in and hes a question of whats happening in the christian democrats you know rather than in germany the thing is a problem julian would would you agree with that very briefly yes and some what i would agree that its it is a case of. Europe we dont know whos going to believe. That that lack of civility which has been a bedrock of europe that sort of. Decades now is very much a it camp has a problem because if you lose confidence in whats up in the country then as people say we see a wobble and sometimes some markets going to react something thats going to react some people could see the also said dude there are a dangerous person for gemma politics for example and i could have an effect on how people are viewing germany and this is problematic because all it takes is for example we end up in a situation as is pointed out where. The i have to maybe exploit this war and push quite hard and have a very lucky election i think you have to respect the public ok im so sorry to interrupt you julian. Im sorry thorsten weve got about a minute left on the program we have mentioned Eastern Europe that we talked about france germany switching places perhaps what about Eastern Europe particularly poland where does poland stand in the jockeying for for influence with it within the e. U. Very briefly please in the polish government very much pro promotes its nationalist agenda cracking down on the rule of law domestically the same goes for for the hungary and Prime Minister are bansal they will of course promote their own national interest. And try to Work Together also with the new Commission Leadership for where that leaves europe its very much up in the air the same. Way its very much up in the air who will be the next german chancellor right now none of the 3 parties the main 3 parties have a clear candidate for for chancellor if we had. Elections tomorrow theres a lot of uncertainty in germany and thats just the name of the game at the moment gentlemen were out of time many thanks indeed for being with us on todays inside story. As always thank you for watching the program dont forget you can see it again it anytime just by going to the website at aljazeera dot com for further discussion join us on our Facebook Page at facebook dot com ford slash a. J. Inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter our handle at a j inside story for me Adrian Finnegan and the whole team here in doha thanks for watching ill see you again i for. My. 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Peacekeepers accusing them of failing to protect them from attacks by rebel groups of syrias producer and. He says the situation remains volatile we get a very very heavy gunfire idea and