For the 1st time in more than 10 years israel may not have a Prime Minister named Benjamin Netanyahu he has failed to form a Coalition Government twice this year the door is now open for his rival benny gantz to lead but will it be any easier for him to form a government and how might all this play out this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im Richelle CareyBenjamin Netanyahu is the longest serving leader of israel he has been Prime Minister twice his 2nd stint lasting more than a decade some of even called him the magician of israeli politics but hes but are they able to convince his rivals to join him and form a government thats after 2 elections this year failed to produce a clear winner the Prime Ministers setback is an opportunity for the leader of the opposition blue and White Party Benny Gantz to form a coalition of his own but this doesnt mean netanyahu is out completely so lets take you through what could happen benny gantz will now have 28 days to form a government hell have to get at least 61 members of parliament or the knesset to support his bid for a majority government afghans cannot form a government and this time the president could then invite anyone else in the knesset to assemble a majority and if that fails elections will be initiated automatically the 3rd vote for israelis this year the blue my party says the time for spin is over and its time for action a minister netanyahu has playing the partys leader for his failure to form a unity government. In the past weeks i made every effort to bring benny gantz to the negotiating table every effort to establish a Broad National government every effort to avoid another election to my sorrow he simply refused time and again if gods will come to his senses and free himself from. Grasp of Lapidus Lieberman if he will abandon the idea of a minority government together we will be able to form a government that the state of israel needs so much at this time. Bring in our gas and now my 1st terry fast that has that date from leicester and. No doubt this is a big moment in israeli politics the 1st time in more than a decade that anyone other than Benjamin Netanyahu is said to be given the opportunity to try to form a Coalition Government benny gantz when asked about his prospects on Tuesday Morning said he was optimistic but added that optimism was a way of life for him baps a recognition of the scale of the task confronting him by most measures even more difficult than that which confronted Benjamin Netanyahu is efforts and did in failure on monday there seem to be 2 avenues potentially open to benny gantz in his blue and white party forming a Minority Administration with the assistance of the many palestinian israeli joint list members of the knesset the Israeli Parliament from the outside but selling that to his own party and even more importantly to the right wing party led by Avigdor Lieberman seems pretty unlikely just as unlikely trying to get likud the ruling party to jettison at least at this stage its leader Benjamin Netanyahu so that would seem to rule out the prospects of a National Unity government between the 2 biggest parties so if guns does fail after his stint it trying to get a government together then were in the prospects of the president handing the ball to the knesset itself and finding another member of the Israeli Parliament to try to come up with some kind of a coalition of their own and around the same time making all that even more could be the decision by the attorney general as to whether or not to indict netanyahu in 3 separate Corruption Cases the best prospects that seem to be available to him would be that one of the charges the most serious bribery is downgraded potentially enabling him to convince people to get together into a Unity Administration or at the very least buttressing his position against a legal challenge to his premiership in the run up to what could be a 3rd election in less than a year kerry force it for inside story west jerusalem. My lets bring in our guests in tel aviv Dalia Sheindlin a Public Opinion x. For and political analyst joining us on skype from acre in northern israel amal jamal a palestinian its actually professor of Political Science at Tel Aviv University and western hofmann chief Political Correspondent at the truce on post and knesset insider so welcome to all of you thank you for joining us dalia i want to start with you are you surprised that Benjamin Netanyahu has found himself in this position. I not all surprised because it was fairly clear from the outset that nathaniel who had no easy path to creating a coalition especially i think when he formed this bloc of parties and. Basically got the all the right wing parties to agree to negotiate as a bloc as a single unit that was something the other parties didnt really count on it was never there was there was never any real reason why other parties especially blue and white would agree to go into negotiations on those terms and so he never had an easy path to forming a government thats in the short term and in the long term im not entirely surprised because after all he didnt win the elections his party came in 2nd of course by only one seat but it is part of what looks to be somewhat the climbing fortunes for natanya who after a very long time as Prime Minister his party alone lost about 20029000 votes between april and september elections and if you add on the potential votes that he could have had once his Party Incorporated another small party called the new he could theoretically have had 39 seats and he ended at 32 and so something is you know not going well for his voters theyre starting you know many of his voters are some potential voters are starting to think its time for the beginning of the end thats compounded by him being in power for so long and of course the encroaching legal charges. And i think just the sense you know of many people that the. Likud maybe doesnt need their votes thats what i heard some voters say all of these things combined meant that he came he had a weaker showing this time so because you are era political a Public Opinion expert i want to put this to you what you kind of touched on a little bit what what do you know that was driving the voters this time you know the 1st tier of Decision Making for the israeli voter is there self identification in terms of ideology when people define themselves as right left or center in israel that is the best predictor for which kind of party theyll vote for so if a person says im right wing very high chances that person is going to vote for a right wing party we dont necessarily know which party and that ideology is a whole worldview its not just a slogan and that worldview doesnt change overnight or even necessarily from election to election and so you know we often say this election is about its on yahoo we said it in september we said it in april but the tonya who represents a right wing worldview for mitt for the right wing voters there about 50 percent of the Adult Population and only about 42 percent so somewhat less are either centrist maybe 25 percent and leftwing who are about 20 percent. Thats the reason why people will will vote for a Center Left Wing party if they identify a Center Left Wing those things essentially break down based on attitudes toward security and the conflict before anything else and only after that do we see people expressing their feelings about things like corruption or Economic Issues or rule of law or any other issue that plagues any society but 1st of all its ideology and ideology is 1st of all around issues of security in the conflict thats almost always the case and of course religion and state is the other i would say 2nd main issue that divides the ideological voters ok im all how would you say Benjamin Netanyahu exploits those categories those divisions that dalia justice brought down for us well he managed to do that the very well for a long time. Since that was at the nih and he was even he managed to build a coalition i think is is is power is we not because its going to change but actually because of the legal charges hes facing now and Everybody Knows even is. Hes doing everything in order to suit himself and the president lovel. And thats why i. Said he lost out of his power in the last looks at them elections. And i think the fact that he was not able to build the coalition. In the polar back to the president means. We began action and you put it in israeli politics. The post and you know. Each politics so go what of that what is really at the psychological impact when i was preparing for this for this broadcast today i saw several authors that specifically use that word psychological the psychological impact this potentially being the end for an Benjamin Netanyahu how do you see that what your analysis of that. So israels been controlled by medicine now now for more than a decade with 3 years earlier as well and their lot of people dont remember anybody else being in power they dont remember somebody else being given the chance even form a government and they have to realize that life goes on that we were around for a long time without him and will be have to move on to somebody else who doesnt have the kind of experience that its in now did israel as a country where people really value experience in a politician and theres no one alive today who has the experience thats now does politically and so were going to have to deal with having a less experienced leader at a time where were facing significant security challenges especially after Donald Trumps decisions that he made about syria and netanyahu has been either brainwashing or using remarkable persuasive abilities depending if you look at it negatively or positively the people of israel for many years that he in only he can make them feel safe and thats why people would indeed need to make a psychological adjustment to having somebody else in power and thats especially among the people who are the people most loyal to him as in the out who will have to accept that the person who theyve come to a warship in in one way or another wont be there anymore and the reason that he wont be there anymore is because not of competition really but because of his own mistakes had brought himself down dalia you had said that you think that netanyahu might be willing to sacrifice some of his coalition right i think hes got 55 members of his bloc to retain his position is how how so why do you think that. Well im not sure if hed be willing to sacrifice them but members of the block on some level might be willing to peel off one of the possible scenarios and there are so many scenarios at play here is that blue and white is trying to form a government i dont think anybody really prefers the idea of a minority government with the joint lissa porting from outside thats politically very sensitive im sure that blue and white will try to tempt some of those parties from the right wing bloc to peel off when it comes to his own Decision Making my thinking is that he has 2 major demands that he seems to have really wanted. To achieve which is which are the conditions that he set when he was supposed to form the government one is to keep this big block of right wing parties together and the other is that he continue being Prime Minister preferably 1st if there is a rotation my thinking is that if he has to give up on one of those i imagine that he would be more likely to give up on the right wing bloc if he gets something that you know acceptable in his terms regarding how he can continue to be Prime Minister despite the fact that the legal challenges are closing in around him its the kind of thing that the president himself ruben rivlin proposed to the parties when its on yahoo was supposed to have the mandate when netanyahu had the mandate to form the government and blue and white didnt seem to want to negotiate about that. The reason might simply be that blue and white you know held the perspective of we won the elections we might eventually reach this kind of compromise but on our terms so maybe they were just waiting for the mandate to come to them so that they could reach some similar kind of compromise that would involve the tanya who agreeing to split that bloc in return for some fairly comfortable situation with regards to continuing to be Prime Minister even during the Legal Proceedings so this is a lot of speculation there are many Many Political elites who have to make unpredictable decisions here ok gil you mentioned this idea that perhaps there would be some sort of rotation of power how likely do you think a scenario like that is how would that actually work. Extremely likely in fact theres not really another choice at all were not going to a 3rd election its not going to happen the people of israel will not let it happen our economy cant sustain that theres too many decisions that have been holed now since last december and so a unity government is really all there is theyre going to have to swallow their pride and break Campaign Promises which is not easy and run the country together the president gave a compromise that i know people in blue and white told me initially the they would want to accept they just didnt want to accept it immediately their tactic was to accept it later on and the so thats whats going to happen but nobody in israel doesnt think wave a for a deadline you know the deadline is going to be december 11th or 12th and here we are sitting in the middle of october still weve got a long way to go and im all. The leverage do the arab parties have right now. Well 1st of all you have to understand that its a new reality in. The center left parties need better parties in order to. Build a coalition and the willingness of the joint list to join at least from the outside support such a government is on the rise there is a majority in the joint list of 4 supporting such as well that sion i think this creates a very good but the have a good impact and the last elections have shown very well i mean the comparison between what happened well and what happens themba trust very much that. Citizens would like the joint list to be there and to be a very active player and to actually play according to the whims of the game in that moment the interest of the community and to have an impact and is only part of this i think the joint that understand very much the situation when you hear an audiogram at the speaking about it you see very understand that its a very big historic if were going to be either to support me. Minimum coalition from the outside or the at least 2 countries of that in the out or who are to become the head of the opposition within the parliament which is also a good game gives them a new platform in order to practice that part i think this is this is very well known also took a whole of one to 2 and white and white is trying to maneuver between. Of course the right wing parties a lot of what became bump up of the lot of the now is blah. Blah and white i mean you think im trying to use the joint less or that to force right mean beyond these to break away from it and you know and join the coalition would have to wait and see what happens in that next year dahlia tell us more about that the spike and voting voter turnout for for arabs in israel now i mean you know ever since. The history of the state the arab arab citizens have participated in voting often times under duress because they were living under military government until 966 but after that they continued to vote at a very high rate close to the jewish vote what happened was during the when the intifada broke out in 2001 the 2nd intifada at the end of 2000 and then elections special elections were held for 2001 after 13 citizens arab citizens had been killed in a protest there was a general boycott and only 18 percent participated in those special elections for Prime Minister that legitimize the idea of way cutting and ever since then turnout among the arab citizens has never been as high as it is for the jewish vote it has hovered around the halfway mark it went up when the joint list was formed a couple of cycles ago to just over 60 percent still lower than the jewish vote reflecting a general worsening of relations an increase of tensions between the arab and jewish populations or i shouldnt even say the populations but on the political level in terms of you know a government that has been very aggressive in its approach to the arab minority in israel palestinian citizens when the joint list reconstituted itself in time for the september elections meaning several arab parties came back together after they had broken up the for the april elections that led to a surge of support so in the april elections only about 50 percent 49 percent of the arab population voted and then in september that rose by about 10 points to close to 60 percent that reflected a belief in the need for those parties to reconvene as one bloc but i think it also reflected the sense that they were not satisfied with what they had done in april in not participating fully and having the port turnout of or poor showing i should say poor results of only about 10 seats you know i think that the community and the political leaders came together with a much more unified message as a model said that they are that the leadership understands how. How much the arab palestinian citizens of israel want their Political Parties to participate in the electoral system in the government in the governing system and maybe even in the government itself and support greater integration into israels Political Institutions and they are they really ran making that a part of the debate making statements during the campaign that they would consider being part of a government that was much more in tune with the Public Opinion among the arab palestinian citizens we know this from fairly consistent and extensive polling showing very high support as im all pointed out and those things together i think combined with again a very aggressive negative campaign by the likud and its own yahoo himself against the participation of arab citizens almost blaming them before the elections for preparing to steal the elections in many ways the legitimizing their participation in the political system led to an additional layer of defiance that said not only do we want to be integrated into the political system we reject the fact that youre trying to keep us out until i saw you nodding there and that of course led to a strong result with 13 seats ok go i saw you nodding through some of what dalia was saying that you want to add something to that. Oh the analysis is brilliant but in the end the politicians make the decisions and benny gantz cant make himself look too close to the arab population or he loses potential of getting a right wing party to jump out of the 55. 00 and enable him to form a government and also make it harder for him to eventually with the likud if its in you know in deed gets harmed by the charges that are going to be. Officially indicting him during dances 1028 days that he has to form a government there needs to be enough heard right then went against all has the exclusive ability to form a government to get the likud to oust its now which is not going to be easy to do so even though there was a report this morning against going to be negotiating with a joint list of arab knesset members its not going to happen it is going to meet with them cordially but those will not be negotiations and what amal said about them becoming Opposition Leader thats not going to happen either even if they end up being the largest faction that isnt part of the government it doesnt automatically go to the largest faction all the parties that would remain outside would unite together behind the jewish candidate so little by little the arab population has moved forward during this election because of the citizens that ive been over the leader of the journalist has made but you cant bite off more than you can sure right now so they said there are many scenarios that kill you youve been clear that theres not going to be a 3rd election as she see it amaldi do you agree with that to that that this will get sorted out. Well at some point yes i think nobody wants to go for elections now most of the parties actually want what they want liberman want that action to enlarge it to. Go to a Largest Party in the parliament he forced the last elections and he has no interest to go for another actions if they dont the see the ultraorthodox want is the same and therefore i think. Were going to see that. Why have now is a psych up with you trying to maneuver as i said before between the out of party the journalists and that i mean parties in order to enforce. A new reality and youve got the should and i think we have the consideration that at some point at some point there has to happen something in the likud in order to take the sure that the other way out without that i think because she can and cannot happen and there is for going in for the election i think will. Have its own impact on the end hammocks there will be parties have in the coming few days and dahlia how much more of these charges this met on the minds of voters have how is that affected all of this. Well theres 2 layers here and i just want to you know with i deeply respect my colleagues analysis but i think we need to leave open a slightly bigger option for the possibility of a 3rd election im not happy to be saying it but this one i would have expected the political leaders to be showing some cracks in the armor of these very 0 sum promises and so far they are not and if they keep sticking to their guns. So to speak you know liberman is even digging in and saying i wont even go into a coalition practically with Democratic Union another small Left Wing Party so something has to give if we are to avoid these 3rd elections ill just put that out there and you know in terms of. The question. About. Corruption. Corruption and russians are it is yes i was trying to stifle it i was trying to stifle the question because theres no good answer i can tell you that from the perspective of the political elites i think its weighing very heavily i think that the leaders of blue and white are saying lets play out the time that we have because the more time we the more time we leave to get this you know got a Coalition Formation done the closer we get to the possibility of a decision from the attorney general about an indictment or more than one indictment which is supposed to happen sometime in mid december or late december and i think the more you know they are probably banking on that happening around the time when theres really significant pressure because the mandate is about to run out and that putting again psychological pressure for the no to compromise however in the voters minds i have to add that this is still a very divisive issue you know a large portion of the right wing voters believe these charges are essentially trumped up so to speak not very serious probably could apply to any politician and or some sort of you know collusion slash conspiracy on the part of shadowy unelected legal media and other left wing operatives to get natanya who out because i sort of personal vendetta against him and for that reason doesnt necessarily. Pack their vote that much that will be the right word of think that will be the last word there and thank you to you and to all of you for joining us im to discuss this im sure well be discussing it again within the next 28 days for sure adele you shiela a multiple and gil hoffman thank you all very much and thank you for watching you can see the program get any time visit our website aljazeera talk on for the discussion on our Facebook Page facebook dot com forward slash a. J. And side story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at inside story from the Richelle Carey the entire team here and so hot right now. 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Driven by outrage and spanning generations the real hinge of demonstrators gathered on the very day a widely criticized repatriation agreement between the governments of bangladesh and me and more was to begin the anger was all too apparent and the fear was palpable if you dont like were so afraid that if they send one of us back to myanmar today tomorrow theyll send back 10 and the day after tomorrow theyll send back 20 idea if we were given citizenship in myanmar then there would be no need to take us back there we would go back on our own we must remember the rancho among the most persecuted minorities in the world. This is aljazeera. L. O. L. Come on peter dhabi youre watching the news live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes after meeting between the leaders russia and turkey agree. Northeast of syria. Joint military patrol. Hello im Maryam Namazie in london with the top story from europe. Are voting on the 1st of 2 crucial bills that will determine whether the u. K. Leaves the e. U. At the end of the month Prime MinisterBoris Johnson is threatening to call an election