But. He was defiant but now Boris Johnson looks caught in the tight corner the u. K. Leader was told he cant force brags that without a deal hes got the parliament suspended but his bid for a snap election is rejected so what are his options now this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im homage enjoy him only a few days ago he said he would rather die in a ditch than ask the e. U. For an extension to briggs in negotiations but it seems Boris Johnson may have to admit defeat and find another way to deal with his deeply divided government his attempt to call an early election has been thrown out and parliament suspended for the next 5 weeks he needed more than 430 votes to get a snap election he only got 293 thats left him in a tight corner if he wants the u. K. To leave the block on october 31st so where does this leave it could there be a 2nd referendum and what will opposition parties do next we have lots to get into with our guests but 1st lawrence lee reports on a dramatic night in british politics. Mr speaker the lords will also right by how much is this mission to declare to declare how well it said to ask how 55 this is and so also declared the prior great follow bands these are the prices of this honorable have really no. Choice what the outside world makes of the purchase parliament shutting down for 5 weeks when the u. K. Is going through the biggest political crisis since world war 2 is anyones guess its most certainly less than popular among the opposition and peace on the speaker of the house of commons this is not however a normal part of geisha it is not difficult it is not standard its one of the longest for decades and it represents not just in the minds of many colleagues but huge numbers of people outside and to be executives be asked. As conservatives file doubts they were heckles by opposition m. P. s who refused to leave they tried to stop to speak up from leaving and then signed protest songs in the chamber. To demonstrate only too clearly the collapse of traditional politics here government ministers of offered no explanation of the deal they are seeking if there is such a deal less aching let alone any work type proposals presented to Parliament Scrutiny no wonder they are so keen to baroque so early to avoid any scrutiny of doing the right 293. 00. The left 46 johnson had lost his 6 votes in 6 days even fewer and ps casting their ballots for a sober election but had done when. Tried it the 1st time and so well the opposition accused him of cowardice for suspending parliaments he accused them of the same thing theyre right on the bill james remove his cronies together with those other up opposition parties have been trying to disguise their proposed risk cowardice by coming up with every major excuse to slow down then you know an election until the end of october or perhaps november when hell freezes over. In lead to the 2 lead a and procrastination that has become the mark of the opposition before parliament was put in so they say enthused koma the opposition was able to force Boris Johnson into a corner he is now going to have to seek some sort of compromise with the European Union if the u. K. Is to leave the block by the end of october as he insists must happen but that in turn will infuriate the most pro brecks it right wing of the party and will inevitably cost them seats whenever the National Election happens with his cabinet holding its regular meeting these calculations will all be in play rumors abound of the potential for more resignations from the ruling party as johnsons many critics say his grip over bricks it becomes ever weaker lawrence lee aljazeera london. Alright lets bring in our panel joining me from london Bobby Freedman political commentator on u. K. Politics and the author of berkow mr speaker rowdy living in the tory party from birmingham on skype alex to reuter director of the center for briggs and studies at Birmingham City university and also from london sonny upon our journalist and author of just boris a tale of blonde ambition welcome you all to the program sonia let me start with you Boris Johnson has lost 6 important votes in 6 days just how damaged is he right now. Thing any other time insert has ever gone through us he has i mean he does that quite often like a a man defeated a man whos had the rug pulled out from under his feet and interestingly actually last night he he performs slightly better in the commons and he has done to date but i think he doesnt like a man who knows hes in a corner now we just have to guess or possibly trying guess how he gets out of this corner will he resign a some people say he might will he call a 2nd referendum on brets it as other people say that he might its a perfect storm so many avenues are now closed hes going to have to do something really radical to get out of this mess otherwise he is going to be a very short lived 5 in 7 days bobby moores johnson tried to outsmart parliament it seems now that hes the one whos been outmaneuvered by parliament wouldnt you say. Well certainly things have not gone quite as boris would have climbed so far but theres an orphan a long way to go in this very sort of got to escape route really the 1st is to go and get a deal from the e. U. s still think that that is possible and what he has successfully done i think is change the mood music in polymer so that if he does bring some kind of deal back to the house of commons hes much more likely to get it voted 3 something that reason may his predecessor the Prime Minister was unable to do the house of commons has passed legislation requiring boris not until october 19th but requiring him to send a letter to the e. U. All saying for an extension to the bracks it date something he said hed rather die in a ditch than day but i do think that hes got 5 weeks now in palm and he isnt sitting 5 weeks in which he can twist in all 4 of alms and try and maneuver himself into into a better position saving your certainly right not been an easy few days for Boris Johnson but i still think he does live to fight another day at least for now alex from your perspective did Boris Johnson really believe that suspending parliament would or could be a Winning Strategy considering how divided politics are right now in britain how do you get a sense its difficult to say and i dont think theyre standing or sitting some happy guy but looking at the nature of his instrument cummings thats a expect that to be religiously dr bio soothing aides you know for parliament to consider this problem in. Effect quantity grades so a basement and theyre going to need for the 20 or 22 rebels including and a rod that is just a much and they just need you to put country before. Theyre not i dont think or a squad anticipated. An outbreak of option just missed on a test i would say. Bobbie you mentioned before that Boris Johnson had stated publicly that he would rather be dead in a ditch than to ax ask for another extension on bridget from the e. U. But of course there is this new law that compels him now to ask for an extension if he does not do that what happens. Well hes got 2 choices really he can either resign or he will have to offer that extension if he if he were to refuse to in the face of the law what would happen is that someone would go to court get a court order requiring him to send that letter some people saying that bristols will go to prison i think frankly thats a bit funny its a full probably Wishful Thinking on the part of some people whod like to see him go to prison and thats because what would happen would be the court could itself sign a letter or nominate someone apart from doris to sign the letter and theres another stage that would have to be gone through before boras could even be threatened with being sent to prison so that isnt a likely outcome but the one thing you have to factor in is that the curiosity of this law is that bars doesnt have to send that request now ecomog wait until october the 19th and so he can within that period of time try to make it deeply unattractive for the e. U. To grant that extension or perhaps to grant it for quite so long because he could say to the you for example that britain wont nominate a commissioner that it will veto the various laws that the other e. U. Countries want to put forward and then the e. U. Is then left in a position where its thinking do we want to allow britain to remain in the e. U. And there are some countries particularly fronts which are rather nervous about giving us a long extension others such as germany more in favor of giving that extension so that is the crucial period of time for Boris Yeltsin over the next 5 weeks but you are right said that if he gets to october the 19th and he hasnt got a deal that he could put through parliament and the e. U. Has indicated that it will offer that extension either he does have to resign or ultimately he or someone nominated by the court will end up having to send that sonia what do you think about this point i mean i heard you mention earlier that there is. People there are people asking questions about would Boris Johnson potentially go to prison if he if he does not ask for this extension you just heard now bobbie talk about the fact that there is speculation on this point as well is there a scenario that exists currently by which Boris Johnson could perhaps go to court could perhaps face prison time if he actually breaks the law as Prime Minister. Well listen were in totally Uncharted Waters here in britain has never had politics as tumultuous as this for the hundreds of years i think its really difficult impossible even to say how things are going to pan out technically yes he could go to prison if he refused to obey a causal that he would then be in contempt of court which is something a crime in this country that can carry a prison sentence so it is possible that that said i think it is actually unlikely however he is such a long way from finding a deal that the issues that face reason may his predecessor face him still now the only deal that has been agreed by all sides is the was draw agreement the problem is that the British Parliament doesnt like it but the you wont change it so we just go round and round and round and round in circles and something has got to break this now i mean if some can i dont believe he can really come up with a different deal then maybe he can find a different way out of this i mean there are many people who signed up to support him when he was going to the leadership of the conservative party believing that he might potentially call a 2nd referendum now i know that looks unlikely at the moment but we had all of the let when a very senior tour in our tory rebel only this morning saying that he now backed one and that many others do too could this potentially be a way out it would be an extraordinary one but its a possible one alex i saw you nodding so it looked like you wanted to jump in im going to let you have the opportunity now but i also wanted to ask you if you could expand on the point that was made there by sonia i mean a lot of people watching whats going on in britain around the world are wondering why a 2nd referendum is not possible do you think it is possible. Yes i do think a 2nd referendum is possible stephanie i think that if it was an alternative government you know say for arguments sake that an election resulted in a labor theyve got a moment like this you know come out and say that they would back the referendum and that been put remaining on the ballot boxes an option this is still the green for example a set you think thats a possibility of a sitting is the only way to break this for exit in insensible prospects they still for because only ready going to be approved you know weve had this suggestion a misstep perhaps forest much longer to be a user regional proposal 20 kate Northern Ireland under the provisions of the cycle that stop arrangements for the expiry of a transition period at least would allow him to escape a bit of an e. U. Customs union independent trade policy the problem again from it was this candidate if he were to try and approach that direction it traveled the day use a bit of state and labor vehicles their preference has been to keep the customs in mini you intact and plus a lot of the Single Market and then of course youve got the stock with your famous distributor oriente sue who i think will be on like it was for the well so its deeply problematic to see any good it will ready be going through and therefore you know youve been looking at the scenarios of the general election to climb right the pollen intrigue deadlock on the short necessarily would to be honest mean that the polls put the tories on a bad 3rd that they probably exposing intentions is that enough to secure a majority dave if they died in tandem with the brits im not so sure a socket certainly would induce them out sick of a referendum in the referendums thats being and by the right this bob you just heard alex talk about backstop now this plan this has been one of the main if not the main Sticking Point when it comes to accomplishing braggs it now on monday we saw Boris Johnson with his irish counterpart Prime Minister leo found the car in dublin and they both acknowledge that no new ground had been found how does this problem get resolved can it get resolved. Well there are only 2 ways one is if new technology is come up with them and thats what. I was talking about with Boris Johnson last month there hasnt it seems been any concrete progress on that but thats one way of doing it the other is alec says i think this is a more likely outcome is that instead of having a u. K. Wide backstop you just have Northern Ireland having a backstop and thats obviously more acceptable in many ways because Northern Ireland is part of the island of ireland with with the republic it was a politically theres just a sense that the rest of the u. K. Great britain often doesnt so much mind if Northern Ireland does something a little bit different so as long as the rest of the u. K. Had left the Customs Union that probably would be politically acceptable alex was mentioning before the issue of the deal you pay the Northern Irish policy which is in a supply and confidence arrangement propping up the conservative government at the moment but interestingly on television a couple of nights ago one of the senior members of the of the d. P. Said that they would consider that and when you go back to 1st principles on that theres no reason really why it wouldnt be acceptable to have just Northern Ireland in the Customs Union they were all sorts of ways in which Northern Ireland is treated differently to the rest of the u. K. For example when it comes to utilities things like electricity there is a Single Market for that just for the island divine and it obviously makes sense because it is an oil and so i think that might be one way where people are moving towards some some kind of compromise and you have to remember this is where things are very different from when to reason may go back before parliament because her deal i think a lot of people particularly labor side moderate labor m. P. s who didnt vote for it attention he now regrets and we even saw the other night a group of them asking to have another vote on to reason maze to so thats why i think if there is some kind of compromise with that kind of backs. Yes it is right that powers would not win all of the votes of the right wing of his party but a number of them are part of his government now theyre bound by collective cabinet responsibility and would probably vote for it and you then have a whole series of labor m. P. s who have been worn down by everything thats happened since the reason may still fail the lack of progress you have the country people are sick of brechts it they want some kind of resolution and so i think m. P. s are now much more willing to go for a deal so i do think that if boys can come up with something it doesnt have to be everything he doesnt have to shoot for the moon it just has to be a deal with a few tweaks compared to what we had before and i do think that could offer him a way out sunny do you think theres a chance we could see Boris Johnson in the weeks ahead go to the e. U. With a modified version of to rescind break the deal. The rays of a say a chance but i was in no the nons at the weekend talking to people that it could well be a problem with the side of the so set the treatment of no the not in the maybe turns in the good friday agreement which was the to Peace Agreement that break could this 1st back tax really successful piece and all the non that least until now the maybe problems with thats agreement make it counted to that also are sensible have in his mind that if he does go for that kind of amended deal what does that mean for scotland you can imagine that the scots immediately going to say well if Northern Irelands going to be able to stay in the Customs Union the whiners cant weigh in scotland and that will push the independence of scotland. That issue the agenda hugely so then you start having this whole idea you know will the union will be United Kingdom kingdom actually managed to survive the whole crisis of red states and i think you know Boris Johnson himself is has appointed himself minister for the for being a minister of the United Kingdom well that would see that cause huge damaged so again none of these socalled solutions are really easy or all straightforward and i still fail to see that that will definitely just come back again and again and again do we go back to 2 reasons Mays Dale Dewey perhaps attached to it they sort of idea that people will cost as long as the lungs the population can have another vote. And informed consent if you like this is now become a more fashionable. So will say alex if Boris Johnson does go ahead and seek an extension from the e. U. How likely is it that that request would be granted. Not withstanding the cabbie its the put up earlier i do think it is i mean lightning created the economic consequences of no deal would be negative c. Will stay the u. K. But we could set a base in germany and france for example as well sod i think its in anybodys decide to want to stay yet and no doubt come. You know the question may well be intensive what length of extension would be off the same reports just as a french for example toying with it an extension of 2 years has been proposed so that the brits could quote still without brakes that have to fly. So you know i think a lot of an extension being granted that the monument a human is always that any further extension would be conditional on stump some critical cianci can it be it for example the general election or another referendum as it were i think we can just see this this never ending series that extensions dont want all that long and bear in mind in the back end will this that they come up with rule gains on the table and its not been renegotiated as it stands the transition period in that youll grant was on the schedule to last till the end of next year and of course the process on both sides wants to then extend that transition right about at the give a 6 month waiting period that will always have bracket creep thing into the length of this but there will need to answer the status quo still applying the new membership conditions alex so certainly looks like i just want to follow up with you it does look like elections are looming but not the time from the Boris Johnson wants right. No i mean it looks like you know especially now that hes pro the parliament and it might rethink things on the 14th ready of october except in a time for a never quite but in the have an october election given that he hasnt got a majority in parliament to get one through but the fixed and that calls for crossing must do the same to 2 thirds of and they didnt want to as they do not fall into that now but parroting parliament for 5 weeks but until opinion piece written in the 14th study but if and they were to agree if they play to the election at that point you know the minimum period really youre looking at is the best 6 weeks that would take this towards the end of November Bobbie i know that were dealing with a lot of speculation here but from your point of view who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose from an election. Well i think both sides have huge amounts to gaining huge amounts to lose i mean i think theres a genuine prospect of Jeremy Corbin becoming Prime Minister after the election thats because the conservatives do have a clear policy on direct it but they face a challenge from nigel farage is directed policy which could potentially split the vote and the conservatives will do badly in a lot of marginals in the in the southwest theyll do badly in scotland they will lose seats that they will expect to win some seats back from from labor in the midlands and potentially in the north but. It comes to it i think Jeremy Coleman has a real shot and particularly also it also the election if the conservatives dont have an all out majority then i think the other parties will proper Jeremy Kuhlmann Boris Johnson on the other hand i mean this is really the last roll of the dice for him when it comes to an election because ultimately he is asking for one because he cant get anything through parliament a moment it feels that the status cant go on and he as i say doesnt need to win an outright majority to stay in power now my view but not means doing better than to resume a did last time around bobbie im sorry to interject is just that we only have about a minute left i went on sonia one last question and sonia briggs it has obviously really fractured british politics things are so divided right now how does the country come back from this. Oh i think its really very difficult and i think that all the ideas about its just going to make it worse even more long lived if there isnt a deal thats just the beginning of it we have years if not decades of mourning casey ations if we even if it goes through a day to resume a dail thats only the beginning of that too again we have years and years and years of negotiations i mean i think honestly i think there was a way of remaining im reforming than actually funny enough that would probably be the most healing option but its a big sell to do now i mean im probably being that great salesman could do that job if he so wanted i just wonder if theres a very very sly not that he might go for it all right we have run a time so were going to have to leave it there thanks so much to all our guests Bobby Friedman alex to reuter and sonya. And thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a. J. Inside story for me have a gentle and the whole team here bye for now. If you were in beijing looking out the Pacific Ocean youd see American Warships when mess was that somehow tine is aiming to replace america and around the World College chinese are not that stupid things guys want to dominate a huge chunk of the planet this sounds like a preparation for our 1st president George Washington said if you want peace prepare for war the coming war on china part one on a just. A 15 year old boy tortured in the worlds most notorious prison finally released after 13 years i wouldnt who is this experience on anybody but i have a hard time thinking about wishing that i havent gone through this experience in an exclusive interview almost tells his epic tale. Witness presents guantanamos child. On aljazeera. Hello im daryn jordan in doha with a quick reminder of the top stories on aljazeera one of the most powerful people in the white house is out of a Job National Security adviser john bolton says he resigned but u. S. President donald trump says he was fired because of disagreements of a Foreign Policy trump says a new advisor will be appointed next week helen fisher has more now from washington d. C. I think youre going to do a fantastic job and i appreciate that there had been growing divisions between john bolton that his boss but the end was brutal even by the standards of this white house
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