A weaker you one was expected at some point in the past the u. S. Has been hesitating with the currency manipulator label over concern that it could trigger a trade war but were already in one so the consequences are low and the negotiations with the International Monetary fund could take up to a year and some feel that the i. M. F. Wont act against china despite the u. S. Accusation of manipulation when he starts mentioning the i. M. F. The question is what could he do there the i. M. F. Is a consentual organisation theyre not going to take sides in fact 2 weeks ago they already issued their own statement about chinas currency and they said that it is and why with International Standards despite the arguments the us says its still planning for a visit from a chinese trade delegation in september. Now a better place to talk about all things currency then patel is joining us now effects and global macro strategist at i care a good to have you with us so lets just deal with the very basic simple situation 1st about currency manipulation it isnt easy. Name i guess to label the chinese with in your view of a currency manipulator its i think if its a technical question and a logical question the no if its a literal sense of chinese officials actually intervening and work in the currency markets then yes they are a bit its more of a its more nuance than just labeling a country of china of chinas size as a currency manipulator i think the u. S. Have to sort of take a step back and realize sort of why in the history of sort of chinese currency and you know yes one could argue in the i. M. F. Is that this is where the country of chinas size should not be having a managed currency or managed Interest Rate system they should be a fully flexible system but the approach from the us is completely wrong as soon as you apply tariffs as soon as you take a sort of more grass of stance on china they become defensive and i think you know just its sort of his counterproductive to china beijing sort of 2025 vision of opening and liberalising the currency so it really becomes a political call them because actually didnt the us treasury report just a few months ago say they will buy it stands no china wasnt a currency manipulation exactly so from a technical perspective and you know even based on u. S. Law their latest 2015 act was nowhere near sort of labeling current china a currency manipulator you know how to dig out some really old trade law here in 1990 going back to 1908 using some of the similar sort of laws that were played when china was 1st named coats in place of back in the early ninetys so look at think you know this is more of a political state. And the scariest signal for us from from this is that she the fact that the u. S. Administration and both if the u. S. Treasury are willing to sort of bend the rules here to make a political statement the question for us is like how far they wouldnt sit bend the rules and what could come next this is of course part of why this is a slight pivot but its part of a wider trade war which we know about between beijing and the United States when something is described as a war that implies there would be a winner and a loser im suspecting the more these tariffs are going on either side and then china saying were not going to be part of us our cultural imports either. Can anyone win a war like this the unintended consequences of this war and the longer it goes on could be quite damaging both for sort of risky assets and equity markets and i think is fair to say that you know at some point someone has the euro to but theres just no end in sight yet so any thoughts they dont want might come next either trade wise or currency wise or actually is it a fools game trying to predict its yeah i think the last is pretty much the sense of trying to get into the mind of the u. S. Administration is always a predictable look weve got the terrorists potentially coming through on september the 1st theres always these sort of threats of us effects interventions accounts of the chinese sort of currency manipulation claims we put those risks is nuke warm but you know these are policies that 12 to 18 months ago we thought were unthinkable and now were sort of coming to council and think about them for us its you know as long as these threats remain on the table is going to be pretty. Non benign scenario for Global Markets if heres a scenario excuse me that donald trump were to interview or the United States were to intervene in the currency markets how do you think that might play out so it really depends on. The firepower that the us have. On its own if the treasury was intervene without the Federal Reserve then we put it we put it as a 0 effect sort of impacts we think about the 4 trillion dollar daily turnover in global effects markets the us have barely sort of 18000000000 worth of capital supply you with is so you know on its own no chance about having having a more than a signaling effect in sort of curb in the top of the dollar with the backing of the Federal Reserve they may have great sort of. Impact on dollar markets you know if you think about the fed sort of buying more assets in sort of new fresh round of 20 states of easing but you know then were in the realm of losing in terms of political and u. S. Institution credibility so theres always going to be a cost to any sort of extreme policy like this whether its economics or politics but either way you know it just seems as if 1. 00 of those sort of illogical and irrational moves from the u. S. But weve been used to seeing some of these are an illogical and irrational moves in the past 12 months just a quick thought john your neck of the woods in london obviously briggs it is looming the pound is falling your broad thoughts on the state of the currency there and whats next yet it doesnt really seem to be much lower for the pound right now in the International Markets i think you know when we look at sterlings move there is a strong game going on in currency markets of guessing what the right probability for a new brics it is comforting 1st of october so we look at betting markets they put it about 35 percent we look at sort of the currency markets where we back out we think its around 50 percent or 5050. 00 based on positioning so a lot of negativity is priced in it makes me nervous when the market so one sided soon adds a fresh sort of stern and shorts from here i cant blame the market for sort of being pessimistic on the outlook for u. K. Politics again no end in sight but it makes me very nervous in chasing sort of cable lower when youve had such. An immense and sentiment driven move historically when the currency is trading at this disconnect from fundamentals theres always a bounce back and maybe were seeing a bit of stabilization now were waiting really for the next move either from the you in you or the bush cabinet when it comes to the brics it sort this this requires maybe a little bit of opinion on your part but do you think theres a chance that some of this is deliberate letting the pound actually fall yeah i think ive misread sort of what the sort of johnson tactic would be post coming into power you know my my thesis was that maybe theyd be running over city e. U. And trying to sort of get a deal and sure a pursuit of markets maybe this is a game of chicken and egg whos going to blink 1st whether its going to be the e. U. Kayo e. U. My baseline view is that really like you know the odds of a trading terms coming through in 1st of november seem much less than what the market is discounting right now i think the political cost of moving to that regime would be too high for either side of the the u. K. Or the e. U. So you know whether its a last minute save the day deal or something to kick the can down the road maybe thats where things that go in here but even then you know starting messes wont find much joy because what comes next for u. K. Politics do we get a general election do we get more sort of uncertainty this just doesnt seem to be a a majority view on what happens come the end of the year when it comes to u. K. Politics plenty to keep you busy then viraj patel thank you for joining us live on the slopes of the most active volcano in indonesia obviously has its dangers 275 people in fact were killed when mount merapi erupted 9 years ago since them survivors have returned to their villages and farms and as for once they found out some have found new ways to make a living. When the weekend arrives so do the tourists hundreds of them by the bus note the pollen to off road trucks and head bumping along dusty trails Close Encounter with indonesias most active volcano the alert level for mt merapi is now low its 9 years since the last major eruption. Turrets allowed to go into the danger zone as close as 4 kilometers from the crater. Monteux used to be a cattle farmer but turned to off road driving after his neighbor persuaded him to give it a go. We know where theres been an interruption tourists are a bit weary and stay away but they come back when the government says that say a volcano is dangerous of course but theyre also being a fit. He sold some of his cows to buy his 1st utility. Now he has 3 this toll has become so popular that there are now about 900 jeeps that cater to visitors the highlight is that driving through a river and fans from the 2010 eruption. Its not just nature and the spectacular views that attract the tourists this museum of sorts is a testament to the power of. A collection of Household Items destroyed in the eruption in 2010 that killed 275 people. And doug is on his 2nd visit to merapi. Remember i was very happy and excited my 1st time here but this trip i feel a bit sad thinking about the people who died but its a good tour it educates people especially for people who live in disaster prone add yes they know how devastating such a cure insists can be. I see knows just how deadly merapi can be. Hes the volcano spiritual guardian a traditional role going back generations. He succeeded his father who was killed in the eruption 9 years ago. People still come to pay their respects to him. Though. Take grass from a rap be we take rocks and sand to build houses we need to love more rapidly its terrifying when it explodes but when it comes down we need to come back and take care of it. The people of morocco know they live in the shadow of danger but have learned to adapt and even benefit from it. Now if you live in a big urban city youve probably noticed the increase in use of electric scooters in the past year or so they dont come without controversy there are accidents theres the how recent felt by pedestrians but the overarching theory is that this kind of tech can help move away from the conventional internal Combustion Engine and berlin for example of stories of approved the latest venture a sharing scheme for a scooters which will augment existing electric powered mopeds can it help reduce the Carbon Footprint of the german capital from berlin dominic kane reports. This is the latest legal way to travel around the east scooter which uses no fossil fuels and leaves a very small Carbon Footprint but so far there are relatively few in the german capital instead there are lots of these electric mopeds which can reach from 45 to 50 Kilometers Per Hour and which can be hired on the spot for as long as you like and which increasing numbers of berliners are using to move around people like christoph hes an engineer living in the fleet of this area of the city for him having a vehicle he can use the touch of an apple is very convenient he showed me how it works and the scooter thats there next to go for backdrops and im yours so its just 2 minutes walk 3 minutes walk once at the bike the principle is relatively simple but whats the whole experience like in practice there is maybe a one or 2 negative points so the one point is you just have one home at other. Companies they have 200 so if you try for a 2nd people you need a 2nd term and then its a problem if you just have one home up. And the area regular you can use it its limited so it would be a good if there if the area would be bigger but all in all its really cool coffee. For the firm running this this the green dividend is key so we really take care about offering Sustainable Services which are better ways with green energy and you know basically our customers dont need to worry about charging the school just because we do the job for them and which charge the batteries internally and then drive to each and every school day with a lot better a level and exchange the battery with full budget for the moment these bikes are still unleashed market but its pretty clear that the companies concerned have major expansion plans and they see bikes the. These contribution to the overall fight against Climate Change want to aljazeera. And that is our show for this week but wed love to hear from you you can tweet or message me directly. We can drop us an email accounts in the aljazeera is the address there is a few online as well aljazeera. Takes you straight to our home page with individual reports links and entire episodes catch up on. This edition of. Maria from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on aljazeera is next. This is al jazeera. Hello im adrian forgotten this is the news i live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes. As a people to file lockdown in indian administered kashmir to voice their anger against the removal of its autonomy. Frankly. Intelligence background. The us president calls for stronger checks on gun ownership but will americas powerful gun lobby blended support. 20 People Killed in southern yemen as fighting continues between forces backed by saudi arabia and the united arab emirates. At a vigil as a form of protest activists in hong kong is religious symbols to voice their anger against the. Process of broken out in indian administered kashmir for the 1st time since the disputed region was stripped of its autonomy thousands of poured onto the streets of the capital sort ago after friday prayers defying an unprecedented security lockdown as Priyanka Gupta reports now from new delhi. They came out in their thousands defying barricades at checkpoints. Tear gas and pallets all infuriated by the Indian Government for taking away their autonomy protests began after friday prayers in srinagar the largest city in did added a stick to. Secure. It was eased for a few hours but by friday evening the 5 day lockdown was tightened again. 4 lines are dead so is the internet gated to see a doctor its difficult it was another long walk for the families of patients outside st augustine largest hospital. I cant even explain the hardship i had to face to get here theres no food or milk for children we are suffering there are no doctors in the hospital. Here in new delhi a majority of politicians in the parliament but the governments position are provoking autonomy of the indian administered kashmir but there are some who are skeptical about the timing and the way in which its been implemented. Indias economy is slowing tens of thousands of factory workers are losing their jobs all the issues around the economy have obviously taken a back seat i mean nobody is discussing that except business newspapers which will be so essentially yes the performance of this government in this town as well as the previous town has always been overshadowed by something or the other some believe its the range of modi trying to leave his mark after winning the 20 9000. 00 election with a massive mandate the more the mandate was not an economy mandate it was not based on the dream of fulfilling jobs economy but it was a National Security election mandate and this is a legacy to him from within this is where he wants to leave a mark on india in the way the 1st one was me merely a preparation for this more the leads they had the nationalist b. G. P. Repealing article 370 autonomy has been one of its core ideologies theres nothing claimed this time about is this i think he did the border did nothing apologetic being apologetic about it weve done what we had stood for all those 5 we dont offer what we have coming. It ourselves to all the more the looks like hes fulfilled the long cherished dream of his party but its not clear how his government can win the hearts and minds of kashmiris living under lockdown. Al jazeera you delhi kashmir is split between india and pakistan although both countries claim the entire territory is their own tensions of spike to the ceasefire line that divides the divides the region. Has been monitoring developments in indian administered kashmir. This village is about 3 kilometers from the line of control the defacto border separating indian and pakistan kashmir this entire village was evacuated about 2 years ago was hit by shelling between the indian and Pakistani Military from over there now despite tensions being high right now many here say they intend to stay put this time if anything happens. We will move their children from here but we have the bunkers. And any moves because we are dependent on them many villagers are building bunkers like this one in case the shelling resumes believing its better than evacuating their homes but small arms fire is still being heard at night live also been launched protests across pakistan islamabad has launched a diplomatic offensive against new delhi has moved on kashmir pakistans top diplomat is in china to try to muster support because there is a solid job reports from was a. Freedom at any cost thats the most popular slogan in pakistan administered kashmir. And many towns and cities throughout the region came out to protest infuriated at indias decision to move special status and the military lockdown of the most in majority region there according to my local 12000000. 00 muslims have been made hostages we appealed to Amnesty International the organization for islamic cooperation and all human rights organizations that they take notice of these indian violations and plans to replace them with the majority within the us. Students were among the younger voices Civil Society leaders see the government and by this man administered kashmir should support their plan to cross the line of control of the border which separates kashmir. Nor do all students young old and children watch the line of control on august 15th we will reach for a new car and stand with our kashmiri brothers their. Anger to what some see is the belated response of focus. The government they want Prime Minister imran khan to do more to get out that their best goodness a resolution isnt cutting off trade ties will not freakish near for the last 72 years they have been presenting resolutions they destructed trade for a vehicle to and then their relations are back to normal we demand a day either reach the other side themselves or let us go there. Protesters took to the streets in other parts of pakistan as well workers for the ruling very can suffer party rallied in favor of the governments decision it has downgraded diplomatic ties with india to trade and stop bus and Train Services its also stepped up diplomatic efforts to shore up support for mr sharon Mehmood Qureshi visit to china the 3rd party involved in the disputed kashmir himalayan region china says its all to concerned about the situation in kashmir and asked all parties to avoid unilateral actions indias Army Commanders accused of creating threats in kashmir a spokesman said anyone attempting to destroy peace in the Kashmir Valley will be in his words eliminated like assads army says its response will be harsher than when it tried down an indian jet in case there is military involvement as pakistanis continue to protest against what they call an extinct of a disputed region the United Nations is urging both sides to refrain from changing the status of kashmir. With aljazeera with pakistan administered kashmir sudden and is an india analyst with the American Enterprise institute he joins us now live via skype from washington d. C. So weve seen this 1st wave of anger today were going to see more of this in the days to come. Im sorry could you say again i didnt get your questions or what are. As weve seen today we saw this 1st wave of initial anger is this going to continue in the days to come. Well almost certainly i think that theres would be a tremendous amount of anger ready but you know early in the near badly that would probably have been bottled up by the fact that india has put in place rather severe security measures including cutting phone lines cutting the internet and so on and its hard to gauge i havent been there recently myself but my general sense is that if you look into 3 portions of that last one the state of Jammu And Kashmir jungle of dark and and the push near valley in general of that i dont think that these measures would be particularly controversial but in the muslim majority which mean a valley there would be a tremendous sense of anger because thered be a sense that india has taken away the sense of autonomy even though it was often you know not really honored by india in any case but a sense that they were sort of separate and somehow part and that status was respected so i imagine yes if the answer is yes your question how difficult then will it be for the Modi Government to manage International Opinion if violence breaks out a these protests were hearing that police have to fire in the air to keep protests under control today you know i mean unfortunately i mean i think were living in a world where you know the things are all relative i personally think the more the government could do a much better job in terms of how it treats the missionary population but you have to sort of remember a context when we go there india is a very large country. India is important to many other countries for various reasons and frankly even though india is great but it is not its nothing to write all about i dont think other countries such as china are really in a position to you know lecture india so i think were sort of really unfortunate situation right now where even though there is ready you know there would be some kind of pressure on india i dont think that it would be anything bad a country of the. Size would not be able to fare so i want to wait to make then of the fact that pakistans foreign minister was in beijing trying to but he doesnt really need to rally support from the chinese for how successful given what youve just said will be the diplomatic offensive against new delhi well you know exists a sort of successful in a limited way to the extent that you know the Chinese Foreign minister agreed to see the back with the new foreign minister very short notice or sort of you know that signals of the chinese to sort of are willing to if these give the baucus only the certain amount of space but beyond that not much if you actually look at the statement that came out from the Chinese Foreign ministry is pretty added again you know theyre urging both countries to be restrained and so on theyre promising justice but the schmear i think its also particularly awkward for the chinese given that theyre all on record of beating their Muslim Minority population into india is frankly quite horrific and probably ready the greatest human rights abuse against any Muslim Population anywhere on the planet right now and the fact that they have a fairly large economic relationship with india so i think that theyre going to try and keep up with on have on board but i dont think that youre going to see any very clear condemnation of india either from the chinese and certainly not from there not as at is there a role for anyone to mediate in this crisis president trying for example has offered before but its been his office been rebuffed by new delhi well you know traditionally a new position on this has been to reject any mediation and to create a new issue as a purely biological dispute with pakistan i think one could make the intellectual is that these 2 countries are not doing a very good job of managing managing the relationship and perhaps a neutral 3rd party would be able to sort of make some progress but as a factual matter that you know proposal is dead in the water because of the indian side thats an absolute no no
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