To balance surgery when i went to investigate the chinese battle to get in shape on al jazeera. Hello im adrian for the get this is counting the cost analysis here your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week on patrol off the coast of west africa nations step up their naval presence to counter the scourge of piracy and hostage taking. After 6 years of treading water gold prices are on the rise we find out whats behind the move. And ill tell you what a great impress record morning on production rather than import. A decade ago no ship was safe off the coast of somalia men armed with machine guns in small boats would target vessels including aid for the World Food Program the menace of piracy continues to plague the region impeding its security and economic develop. But its also increasing in other areas that you hotspot is the gulf of guinea an area that covers 6000 nautical miles or 11000 kilometers of coastline from angola to senegal west african countries lose 2000000000 dollars annually to maritime piracy and Armed Robbery the region produces more than 5000000. 00 barrels of sweet crude petroleum per day its a vital source of oil and gas for asia europe and the United States nigeria is the Largest Oil Producer in the region and has more than 40000000000 barrels of reserves now some believe the region will surpass the Oil Production capacity of the arabian gulf by 2020 making the stability of this region and the safety of Oil Transport a vital strategic concern off the coast of west africa the total cost of piracy has been steadily increasing over the last 3 years from 700000000. 00 to more than 800000000. 00 thats according to data from oceans beyond piracy but that still towards the cost of piracy off the east african coast which has dropped to 1400000000. 00 in 2017 down from a staggering 7000000000. 00 in 2010 for every 120000000. 00 seized by pirates in somalia the cost to the shipping industry and the end consumer is as much as 3300000000. 00 according to research from the London School of economics this money is enough to employ well over a 1000000. 00 somalis for a whole year and that doesnt include the direct human cost more than 90 percent of piracy hostage taking in the 1st 6 months of this year took place in the gulf of guinea the International Maritime bureau says that 27. 00 crew members were kidnapped and a serious ahmed idris went on patrol with a gun am navy to discover the true extent of the problem. Tucky chicago ship parks oil one is more than a week late its intended destination. He or she is resting in the calm waters of tema off the coast of god. Everything looks alright from the outside but on board evidence of why the vessel didnt make it to ivory coast untie the ship was attacked by pirates in nigeria or to us and 10 of its crew were taken away as hostages. The others were locked to stay but was frightened they told us. If youre. Coming to here we are urgent the ship. All my friends are sort of the. Similar incidents have been reported 70 times in the 1st 6 months of this. The International Maritime bureau says the vast majority of the sailors kidnapped for ransom or taken off the cost of being the. Guinea nigeria and togo while attacks by pirates have substantially decrease in some regions of the world they seem to be on the increase in west africa making the gulf of guinea there was to bury in the world impacted by piracy fishing boats are sometimes targeted but most of the attacks so i carried out an oil and gas tankers experts say that the regional neighbors and coast guards need to coordinate better if they want to control the situation. We set out on patrol with a gun to me in the gulf of guinea is the most dangerous streets of Maritime Territory in the world for attacks at sea but garner has seen a decrease in piracy incidents in its waters and thats been put down to sustained operations by its navy and not. Ships. Be fair to we in the what tests of our countries and then when they are called upon to do better than this nations. Heroes ships that taps by pilots when the are released. Defense. And what does the citizen and saw that would be the fairest you know point of. The genus air war is one of several gunships ghana has on patrol every hour of the day and sometimes there is support from their force. The navy believes it could do even more with increased funding. Not enough resources. You know pumped into into into the navy but. When this is being built in any society and policy makers in any in any government and there we gradually been resourced. But more needs to be done in a region where piracy kidnappings and theft of oral are growing problem in 2016 jury alone estimated its losses at more than a 1000000000. 00 a month experts say the economies of the region rich in oil and fishing cannot sustain such a drain on resources all right lets get more on this growing menace joining us now from london Michael Hallett michael is the Deputy Director of the International Maritime bureau at a director of i. C. C. Commercial Crime Services the anti crime unit of the i. C. C. Could tell you with us michael so whats behind the rise of piracy off the coast of guinea as we were hearing a strategically important region for world trade. There is a a serious frets to the safety and security of seafarers in the region and this freight has been there for many years. Almost 80 percent of crew kidnappings and 95 percent of crews taken hostage this year have occurred in the gulf of guinea. We forgot to the kidnappings. There have been 1st the 7 crew kidnapped from their vessels this year in several separate incidents the crews are typically taken ashore they are held between periods of between 6. 00 and 8. 00 weeks before they are released last month spain seafarers were kidnapped from the general cargo vessel the vessel was 120 miles from the coastline this demonstrates the scope of capabilities and also that all shipping is vulnerable so one turns of hijackings weve seen sorry meitner. Let me put the 2nd question to you 1st for a 2nd what lessons michael can be learned from the reduction of piracy off the coast of east africa. Its difficult to compare the east africa with west african piracy they are 2 separate phenomena somalia was a foul state. In the gulf of guinea you have functioning sovereign states the one constant however is that if you are able to see ted its. An approaching suspicious vessel you then have the opportunity to raise an alarm to retreat into a citadel if needed and this Early Warning is something that should be applied not just for east and west africa but universally when it comes to global piracy so Early Detection is paramount so do west african nations need more help and what sort of thing can can help with this Early Detection we talking about drones do they need more help from from western nations the u. S. For instance well there are a number of initiatives of regional and international that are on the way. The all of these nations need help where theres piracy and i need helping training to ensure you know the responses of their Capacity Building but whats really important when it comes to these issues is that the incidence didnt not go unchecked they are reported that the authorities see the navies and the coast guards they Work Together with the authorities assure they go and try to investigate these crimes they apprehend the criminals and they make sure they are punished under a law that sends the right to aaron or the navys the of the big power as michael stretched at the moment but the thinking about the scope Missions Underway currently in the gulf the malacca straits and elsewhere in the world all naive these have finite resources and its really for the navies and their political masters to decide where to deploy those assets to reflect michael really good to talk to you and counting the cost many thanks indeed for being with us. Thank you. Now from a record high in 2011 gold it seems has been in hibernation but us trade war starts damage Global GrowthCentral Banks begin cutting Interest Rates and the prospect of conflict is an ever present threat the precious metal is trading the a 6 year high and its never really gone out of fashion with Central Banks jewelers and some of the worlds biggest investors so whats going on well lets start with that record high in 2011 gold prices hit almost 1900. 00 an ounce after the financial crisis although it slid to almost 1000. 00 in 2016 now for the last 6 years its been struggling to rise above 1350. 00 an ounce but in the last month it made it to 1446. 00 and could push higher the biggest holders of gold essential banks last year they increased the volume of their holdings to the highest level since the end of the Gold Standard nearly half a century ago the United States has by far the biggest stockpile with an estimated 350000000. 00 but russias holdings of quadrupled over the last decade the jewelry industry uses about 2000 tonnes of gold every year worth around 85000000000. 00 but its people in india that have believed to hold the most gold estimated to be worth around 1. 00 trillion dollars so is that extra demand for gold or is this just investors seeking a safe haven to find out were joined via skype by gavin wendt gavin is the founding director and senior resource analyst at sydney based mine life good to have you with us gavin so whats behind golds recent rally well weve seen a number of factors that conspire exactly the right time. Dr gold are there. More recent factors. I guess related to things in the last week for example related to u. S. Interest rate caps trade issues uncertainty with respect to britain and iran an ongoing Economic Council. That we can actually trace goals i guess. Strong momentum. Back to probably the g. F. State back in 2000 and night the tremendous amount of spending that went on in the wake of the g f c around the world in terms of money printing by Central Banks and also they slashing Interest Rates to in some cases 00 levels or even negative levels in in the case of some year pain countries and those factors have provided a very very strong macro picture to drive the gold price rise so whilst weve seen a lot of action in the gold price over recent months and typically you know the last 6 months with the price going to very very high levels this is a storm thats been building probably for about the last 10 to 12 years that sometimes these things take a while to develop. And were starting to see the you know the real up side in the go price now eventually this weeks rate cut by the fed do you expect to see further cuts in the future what a rate cuts and rate rises mean for the price of gold right coutts a typically quite good positive full to gull price outlook that is because right cuts typically to a weakening in the u. S. Dollar and a weaker u. S. Dollar typically results in a stronger gulp process and vice versa so what weve seen in the wake of the the u. S. Interest rate cut was markets. Looked at the fake commentary and they examined it and the fed was what they suggested in their commentary was that this was likely to be a one off right cut. They would likely to follow through with further right cuts and the market had been expecting that this would be just the 1st of a series of write cats throughout 2019 perhaps in calendar 2020. However what weve seen from the fed in the past is that they say one thing and they typically tend to do the to do the opposite and this is particularly been the case over the last 12 to 18 months if we go back to the same period in 2008 saying the fed was talking about like the rate increases or at least keeping rates on hold. Fast forward to around april the shia and there were a game saying that it was highly unlikely that it would to be any sorts of right cuts they couldnt see any right cats for the foreseeable future here we are in july august and they have theyve cut rates so whilst they say that there is unlikely to be further right cats i think the economic circumstances in the United States will determine that they will be further right cuts certainly President Trump would very much like to see right cuts and i think thats what were going to be looking at so i think theres going to be further impetus to the process with with likely right cuts to come if not in the 2nd half of 2019 that i think pushing into 2020 or so given russia has been increasing its holdings what do you make of that russia in particular has been a very strong buyer of gold over recent years and so has china for that matter china has come out and actually said that it is buying more gold the key reason for Central Banks not only china and russia but other Central Banks around the world to tiptoe just gold is that wanting to diversify their foreign reserves out of the u. S. Dollar there is a few in Financial Markets that the u. S. Dollar is significantly i valued. And as a result of that Central Banks are starting to buy gold inning creasing volumes and particularly if were likely to see further interest. Caps then the direction of the u. S. Dollar is going to be down i think if you look at the Central Banks around the world as a collective during 2018 which is the most recent data we have they bought about 576 tons of gold and that was the biggest annual purchase of gold by Central Banks since 2012 and what weve saying in terms of central Bank Purchases the shia led by russia is that 29. 00 saying its likely to outstrip purchases from last year so that the trend in terms of Central Bank Buying is definitely upwards and just briefly given whats whats the target price for gold. Well ive recently revised upward my target price at the start of calendar 2019 i was looking at a trading range goal to explain 12503050 per ounce but given the likelihood of further write cats im probably going against the grain here in terms of what Market Perception is doubting what the fed will do i think there are just so many positive factors out there driving gold the moment in terms of risk Economic Council say devalued you ashamed not that and the likelihood of that right cuts that ive upgraded my price forecast for the next 12 months to between 34050. 00 per ounce i think its very strong upside and theres even the potential for gold to go higher perhaps challenge the 1500. 00 mark i think theres a very strong confluence of events and i dont think there are any of those issues are going to be resolved any time soon kevin is pretty good to talk to you on kind of the cost many thanks indeed for being with us my pleasure now years of war and instability have damaged iraqs gas and Oil Infrastructure leaving it dependent upon Energy Imports despite having huge reserves but iraq wants to change that with help from big overseas investment is here as a summit in java reports from iraq. Electricity is in high demand specially during the summer and power plants rely on gas most of it comes from fields like the basra gas field in the south and because its associated gas with oil a single barrel provides both oil and gas but iraq doesnt produce enough gas for its power stations a 3rd of what it needs is imported from iran. In the 1980 s. Raining jets took out most of iraqs oil and Gas Infrastructure in the sanctions that followed saddam husseins invasion of kuwait stalled any development now iraqs economy is weak the us is an important ally and both saudi arabia and iran are its neighbors iranian gas is a burden on baghdad stretched budget and a loaded issue for domestic and regional politics Prime Minister made he wants to make iraq Energy Independent his oil minister has already signed multibillion dollar deals with International Companies such as honeywell eggs on and shell unfortunately because although if he were to delay it and thats why really. And he was lagging behind. We are concentrating on this and the possible use to burn more 50 per cent 2 years to 3 years ago. 55. 45. 00 i want to be realistic or the 5 years will be i would say. There are big. You know ok and this of course will lead to many advantages one of course a white for Power Generation that will definitely make. Energy independent who dont need to import and of course. You know all that. Maintaining a gas field under 46. 00 degrees is anything but easy but these iraqis are making sure that they continue to pump the gas which helps run their country besides the gas needed for electricity these gas fields also produce other types for domestic use and export 75 percent of the provide. L. P. G. Come from this. The facility which is more than 25 years old thats why this section of the plant is being renovated its electric instruments. To do these upgrades requires major investment rox government says despite obstacles like corruption and an unstable region investors are coming to back that. The. Gas is the primary resource in the Southern Region especially to generate electricity most of the old power plants were motive from liquid fuel operations to cast power plants has there was an urgent need for investment and to upgrade production as tensions escalate between us and iran iraq wants to diffuse so it can attract more companies to help achieve baghdad becoming Energy Independent. These engineers are practicing how to respond to an emergency involving the h 2 s. Gas they work at the central processing facility of the mage new an oil field in southern iraq. What makes their operation unique is that after oil joined shell left iraqis took over and for the 1st time they were running oil and gas extraction on their own. After shell pulled out and 2018 bus for oil company took charge with the same standards and criteria but company in cooperation with other Consulting Companies also proved that it has the ability to manage much oil field despite the challenges that we face. One of those challenges a splitting from marshlands around the mage noon field this oil is below the nearly 5 metre high flood waters around it the environmental risks mean new oil grids in real need to be elevated engineers say they have been able to reinforce dikes but one flooding could submerge their operation much new means crazy in arabic some say the name is in reference to the large amount of oil in one location the reserves of an estimated 38000000000 barrels this field produces 240000 barrels a day and that capacity is expected to go up to 450000 in 3 years. The company says its able to find investors even when the world is moving towards alternative Energy Sources there is no and the risk for investment in iraq iraq is very respectful of government with. The company. Even with a shortage in financing and 2014201520 extension 15 here are committed to pay back all the investor. Costs are budget within the. Time when they invest when they and the cost back payment have timetables oh and. One of their main. For you. To fortify. The Oil Companies know that iraq is coming out of years of war the recent crisis in the gulf increases risk and baghdad needs investment sources within the oil ministry told out there that some more Oil Companies want to use that to their advantage brought names i dont want to mention names but. I am a Firm Believer and one when the relationship come up to blackmail us and we dont want to twist their arms they are our partner notes. Relations but on the other hand we are monitoring that activity is watching the costs will have managed to reduce the cost of. Course but but all you see there was hiking up but with time it was decreased. To expand its overall Oil Production to 5 and a half 1000000 Barrels Per Day but as a member of the Oil Exporting Countries of opec it has to reduce its oil output iraqs economy is hinged on oil and faces a tough balancing act the government has to generate much needed revenue while abiding by opec agreements. For this week if youd like to comment on anything that youve seen you can tweet me im at a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop us a line counting the cost of that is our email address as always theres plenty more for you on light at aljazeera dot com slash c. T. C. That takes you straight to our page and there youll find individual reports even entire episodes for you to catch up on but thats it for this edition of counting the cost of the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on aljazeera is next. The president. Was promised information about hillary. Clinton 1st. Did campaign with russia did you at any time of the former f. B. I. Director james comey in any way shape or form the closer to back down the investigation into Michael Flynn and also as you. Know. Next question bottle field washington on aljazeera. Captaining a leading youth team at 16 years old takes determination. To that staying on top of your game at school. By whole family bands together and shares the sacrifices necessary for a son to have a shot at becoming a professional footballer. By 2 in a 0 home game on a jersey you know. Youre watching aljazeera the whole rob and these are our top news stories the u. S. Has designated china as a currency manipulator of the trade war between the worlds 2 largest economies intensify as stocks have dropped nearly 3 percent told wall street after china let its currency think to an 11 year low elevation has more from washington d. C. Well donald trump said he was going to call china come see manipulator on his 1st day in office its taken until now you certainly were expecting from the treasury secretary of mission some sort of rule