Transcripts For ALJAZ NEWSHOUR 20240714

The iranian navy has a sizable submarine fleets with russian built cuter class subs quite enough to sneak up on the u. S. Carrier group lets take this on lets speak to john mark quickly who is head of global risk at the Geneva Center for Security Policy joins us on skype from geneva so if we look at the balance of power on each side it is very balanced in favor of the United States and iran really cant fight against that kind of. When a kind of mention about an award for probably not for may not many countries the u. S. Is actually spending more than the next top 7 spender in terms of military equipment into words but iran has developed over time a symmetrical capabilities some have to do with surrogates that they are using in syria in iraq as well as in as in yemen either have to do with capability is as you mentioned me size an entity science capabilities mining because obviously the strait of hormuz is very never and there for you if you land of human mind it could actually block the entire. The entire strait and also in terms of speedboat so any iranian retaliation to a u. S. Strike could cause how much damage could it cause. Well obviously it depends when but they deranged do not have the capability of friends of korea would have to strike us to richer ie what the iranians would do pro really is striking targets for just any 3 if that means early in iraq you noted that they are some of us saw during iraq that are conducting missions again i guess i says it has been some work its not been fired against bases that host us film here in iraq but also obviously. Maritime traffic could be could be a target industry the former and then new layer of his condition would be if iran would strike us all into region. So if the arabia or. Or even qatar because qatar with data has biggest us overseas deployment in or if us strike has happened the one that donald trump apparently calls of 10 minutes before it was due to happen what impact would that have has on irans capability what would it have achieved. Well truly if this you start would have happened. Would have been a strike to signal to derail any and become target day capabilities also to undermine some of the same capabilities so as the previous guest was mentioning we are in the if you want to game seeing them your position and these allegations. Prove really the 1st strike would be seen reviews limited but obviously if the escalation spiral goes out and then it could go for a spur of the allies of the United States in the region and then who knows what would happen. We appreciate your time joe mark ricky from the Geneva Center for Security Policy. And. So there are an aljazeera defying drum u. S. Senators vote to vote to block could the sale of arms to saudi arabia and the united arab emirates. Demands it just as a finely owns it in spain is in it or is wolf pack on sentence for rain. Again while here across turkey we have been talking about the new storms of the last couple of days and that is still going to be the trend but there is some good news as we go towards the end of the weekend the what you see here on the map all the green starts to fade away as we go towards sunday so less active weather a little bit drier as we end the weekend there a little though it is going to be a hard day for you with a temperature of 34 degrees and down towards beirut we do expect to see 27 as your forecast high while the winds have been a big problem across the gulf over the last 3 days finally on saturday the winds begin to ease the visibility also gets better tempers and about 40 degrees here but by the time we get towards sunday theyre coming back up to about 42. 00 over towards 39. 00 in the scott plenty of sun in the forecast at 37. 00 degrees there and then across other parts of Southern Africa we are going to be seeing some winds and some clouds pushing through cape town over the next few days rain will be a problem there on saturday with a temperature of 16 degrees but this area of low pressure makes its way towards east durban will see some windy conditions as well 22. 00 degrees few there up here towards johannesburg it is going to be a little bit chilly and overnight it get down to the Single Digits but up towards harare it is going to be a nice day at 23. The countdown to the 2020 Us Democratic primaries has begun. Televised debate sees candidates go head to head to define themselves on the issues from Climate Change to Foreign Policy join us in miami on june the 26th and 27th for the 1st u. S. Democratic debate. Sri lankas east to sunday bombings reverberated around the world with religious and ethnic tension rising one a one investigates bank is the new front line in sri lanka on aljazeera. And again you watch aljazeera a reminder the top stories this hour donald trump has confirmed in a series of tweets that he ordered at strikes on iran but then withdrew the order as warplanes were in the air and ships in position to iran is denying reports that it was warned of an immediate attack and given a deadline to agree to engage in talks. And. Terror on is denying reports it was borne of an immediate attack and give a deadline to agree to talks in the revolutionary guard says it also refrain from shooting down a u. S. Plane with 35. 00 people on board that was in the vicinity of the drought and. Now the head of georgias parliament has quits after a visiting russian politician was allowed to make a speech to m. P. s dozens of protesters were injured as rot didnt stop them storming parliament kremlin is condemning what it calls anti russian provocation moscows influence in georgian politics remains a highly sensitive subject since a brief war and russian invasion in the years ago and its very. In that robin 1st of all goes in tbilisi for us at robin tell us more about whats happening now. Well tonight weve had another very large demonstration on the main street which im standing on now could restart any avenue. Behind me there are still large crowds always difficult to estimate but certainly in the thousands 5. 00 to 10. 00 parts more. I had to move back a little bit because of the that the signal its so weak over there because its so many people but certainly very smart still resentments here in the capital towards those m. P. s who allowed to sit in the Georgian Parliament but also resentment and anger towards the government for the way in which they handled the protests yesterday which turned violent and we saw hundreds of people injured among the many journalists who appeared to have been specifically targeted by the police with growing injuries and facial injuries and several people having actually lost their eye in the violence so the problem i think the Government Faces now is a credibility 11 for having allowed this and thats a appeasement of russia to go on for too long as the opposition sees it royce taking a weak line never really seriously criticizing russia for its occupation of georgian territories and then allowing for this kind of extension of russian soft power with these m. P. s to just sit in the parliament here and and speak from the Georgian Parliament and then of course the way now in which theyve responded to to the georgian public and the opposition say well you know we came we protest against this russian interference and operate it was the same in your reaction as our representatives was to use violence against us and so it doesnt look particularly good from an optics perspective here now in georgia with the opposition really trying to up the ante and hoping to gain some. Mentum but of course its just been a couple of days they feel reinvigorated theyre angry at the way in which they feel this government is let them down over the past 5 years but its early days well have to wait and see how things now progress but they want more heads they want more resignations and they even want to change the political system theyre asking a lot right now from this georgian government but i certainly have numbers today to prove that they have support behind them but thats a pigeon tblisi and robert frost a work of thanks will. Hong kong thousands protest surrounding Police Headquarters there calling for a complete withdrawal of an extradition bill that could see suspects taken to Mainland China for trial theyre also angry with the police for using force in earlier protests mass demonstrations have been held over the past 2 weeks and the crowds are not showing any signs of backing down devika paul is live for us in hong kong and the crowds once again out on the streets. Thats right nick there are still a couple of 1000 or at least a couple of 1000 of people out here digging their heels in for the night that blocked all the major highways but in particular they have surrounded the Police Headquarters so if you go to my left here youll see that the barricades of all the entrances and the exits for the Police Headquarters with the Security Forces holed up in there and every time anyone tries to come out or comes to any of the doors the crowd surges forward so theyre not letting up but whats interesting about these protests is that we havent seen any police or Security Forces on the streets trying to disperse them and this is possibly because of last weeks protests where images of police breaking up those protests break camp young protesters on the streets with tear gas and pepper spray and rubber bullets were beamed across the world and the Hong Kong Government and the police came under massive criticism and that is something china does not want right at this moment mainly because of the g. 20 summit thats coming up and president xi jinping goes to negotiate with the u. S. President from he doesnt want these protests to be a factor in those negotiations as the 2 sides try to work out issues in their trade war and the u. S. Has specifically said the hong kong protests could be on the table when they hold those talks everything is very much to be compiled and reporting that. North koreas state media says its leader kim jong un and chinas president xi jinping have agreed to strengthen ties between their countries announcement on friday came just before she left north korea it confirms beijings support of its allies pyongyang faces heavy u. S. Led sanctions over its nuclear and missiles program. The saudi u. A. E. Led Coalition Fighting in yemen says its targeted to 3 rebel sites in the port city of her data it was in response to the drone strike on the saudi city of jesus today there is yemens main entry point for a delivery last month think hes pulled out of the port as part of a un brokered deal meanwhile the World Food Program says its partially suspended its aid distribution in yemen decisions being made after it failed to reach an agreement with the rebels on how to deliver food to yemens most Vulnerable People the u. N. Agency has complained that some of its Food Supplies have been diverted hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes in democratic republic of congo because of intercommunal fighting around 4000 of arrived in neighboring uganda the United Nations is trying to resettle some in refugee settlement has more from the. Its been 2 days since family and right the child while ritchie settlement 2 of her 5 children ages 4 and 7 didnt survive the journey from the north east of the to western uganda. Yeah when the fighting started we ran to the boat and the panic one child fell into the water and drowned another child died because we had no food or medicine thats when i said if i stay in congo the whole family will die. Conditions in uganda are basic but the refugees are grateful. Forces have been deployed to fight militias in the area around the town of its need to be the province at the center of the current into ethnic conflict one challenge the Congolese Army is facing is that some militiamen are not just with machetes but with more sophisticated weapons too. Appealing for help to restore calm. Do you cant survive without the presence of soldiers this is why weve been deployed here we call on all communities to support this army so that we can restore peace and security. In the conflict between the him and linda groups is about access to farmland as well as gold oil and gas resources. The problem is that number of people whove been displaced is between 3000024000 extension 00. Because of attacks currently the army is heavily deployed as now trying to secure those areas back in uganda some of the 4000 congolese who fled fighting this month alone trying to settle into a new country piece by piece a temporary home takes about a day to build this shelter is basic and meant to be temporary they get the canvas from the United Nations but Everything Else is sourced locally in some cases and in. The shelters near the road for older people so they have easy access. Thousands survived a long journey across the border to get here where at least for now. And the tour is criminal case in spain is ended with a jailing of 5 men known as the park sentences have been increased to 15 years each following a public outcry. And you go to. Spain highest court in madrid has delivered its verdict 5 men previously convicted of the Sexual Assault of a 19 year old woman and now guilty of the more serious charge of rape the man called themselves the wolf pack and. All the acts took place in an atmosphere of tara of absolute subjection the only thing the victim declared to the court was a close my eyes and waited for everything to end as soon as possible. On the head of the decision some of the man arrived at the courthouse in seville where they must check in 3 times a week. The Supreme Court ruling overturned 2 Previous Court rulings in a case this brought thousands of people onto the streets in protest was. The attack happened here in pamplona when the city was holding the sound for main bull running festival the woman was dragged into a Residential Home way in the early hours of the morning the court heard how the man shared jokes and videos of the rape in a Whatsapp Group footage was used as evidence of the trial the defendants lawyers said the sex was consensual a rape charge in spain requires evidence of violence or intimidation the womans lawyer says she didnt fight back because she was afraid and in shock both the 5 men and the victim appealed to the early a verdict to the Supreme Court during the appeal process the men were freed from jail because under spanish law or no one could be held for more than 2 years without a definitive sentence i then release and rage protesters. Full of the men of had their sentences increased from 9 to 15 years one of them was given an extra 2 years for stealing the victims phone. Its thought that me and if that gets i think theyre worth pacquet says let us to consider changing the law i Hope Parliament takes to. Society demands it. Is one of the most controversial cases in spain the case the complaint is hope to change the way the country judges rate future. Aljazeera. The more costs on a website aljazeera dont call minutes to dress all the news were covering right there plenty of comment and analysis too. For as a recap the headlines here on aljazeera and donald trump has confirmed in a series of tweets that he called off a retaliatory a military strike on iran just 10 minutes before supposed to go ahead troubles a tweeted hes in no hurry to launch any action claiming and the attack would be disproportionate to thursdays shooting down of an unmanned drone. About ready to go i said i wanted a better dance and here were playing about ready to go no but they would have been pretty soon. And things would have happened to a point where you wouldnt turn back you couldnt turn back so they came and they said sure were ready to go wed like a decision i said i want to know something before you go how many people will be killed approximately 150 and i thought about it for a 2nd i said you know what they shot down an unmanned. Drone plane whatever you want to call it and here we are sitting with 150. 00 dead people that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after i said go ahead and i didnt like it. Iran is denying reports that it was warned of an immediate attack and given a deadline to agree to engage in talks irans foreign minister says its maps pinpoint where the drone was intercepted off the violated radio space the revolutionary guard says it refrain from shooting down a u. S. Spy plane and its 35 crew who were flying near the train. The head of georgias parliament has quit after visiting russian politician was allowed to make a speech to m. P. s dozens of protesters were injured his right Police Stopped them storming parliament the kremlin is condemning what it calls anti russia provocation moscows influence in georgian politics remains a highly sensitive subject since Russian Troops invaded 11 years ago. Streets in hong kong and flooded with protesters again as people continue to demonstrate for the complete withdrawal of the china extradition bill the latest protests come after a friday deadline for the government to meet to moms. North koreas state media says its leader kim jong il and chinas president xi jinping have agreed to strengthen ties between their countries in oxford on friday came just before she left north korea it confirms beijings support of its ally as pyongyang faces heavy u. S. Led sanctions in for its Nuclear Missiles program all right up to date with the headlines here in algeria got more news coming up right after inside story wife. Will the u. S. Attack iran there is intense debate in washington following the dunning of a u. S. Drone donald trump accuses tehran of making a big mistake iran says the u. S. Violated its sovereignty so what does this mean for the already tense legion this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program. A tense standoff between the u. S. And iran following the downing of an american surveillance drone in the strait of hormuz Iranian State t. V. Has been showing what it says is drone wreckage retrieved at sea the American Media says President Trump ordered air strikes against military targets in iran but then later changed his mind once again he lashed out at his predecessor barack obama saying he made a desperate and terrible deal with iran donald trump said hed stop the strike against iran earlier congressional leaders were briefed on the incident and called for a robust response but they also told the president to act with caution. The hi kanchan wires are up in the region for a lot of Different Reasons some by lateral region some multilateral some of. The high tension lines. And 3rd we must act in a way that does not that does deescalate and does not escalate the tensions and the situation here the president may not intend to go to war here but were worried that he and the Administration May bumble get into a war weve been flying patterns like this for months were trying to collect intelligence to make informed decisions were told the iranians before they shot the drone down that gauge against american personnel or assets you do search your own peril the president does not want a war with iran or anybody else but he is the commander in chief. Well speaking to the press during a meeting with the canadian Prime Minister the president from cold the dunning of the drone quotes a very big mistake i have a feeling i may be wrong and i may be right but im right a lot i have a feeling that it was a mistake made by somebody that should have been doing what they did i think they made a mistake and im not just talking to the country made a mistake i think that somebody under the command of that country made a big mistake the u. S. Maintains it was flying in International Airspace but iran disputes where the incident took place during a televised speech the head of the revolutionary guard reiterated his position. On a. Inside is not mean its a clear and concise message to the defenders of the borders of the islam iranian nation respond to all foreign aggression and our reaction is and will be categorical and absolute the borders represent a red line. Ok lets get going lets bring in our guests today they are Mohammad Marandi hes head of american studies at the university of tehran he joins us from the iranian capital Hillary Mann Leverett is c. E. O. Of the Political Risk Consultancy Group strategy and formerly u. S. State Department Official she joins us from washington and keeping us company in london sahil shah hes a policy fellow at the European Leadership Network where he leads the iran project which works to protect the Iranian Nuclear agreement welcome to you all Mohammad Marandi in tirana welcome back to inside story as far as the trumpet ministration is concerned is there as of today a plan b. When it comes to what do we do next i think thats probably the most important problem that the team in washington has created for trump there is no exit strategy this maximum pressure policy that the United States has imposed on iran is really a dead end the iranians are saying that we after 10 years of negotiations agreed to a nuclear deal weve given significant concessions weve been flexible. And now the United States has exited the deal it is forcing other countries not to abide by their commitments including other countries who were at the negotiating table and it is demanding that iran give new concessions and the iranians know that this is a slippery slope that will lead to disaster if you run appeases the United States then in future every time the United States wants something more they will impose sanctions again so the iranians are saying we will not appease the United States if the United States wants to talk about even other issues than the Nuclear Program they have to show that they are reliable partners that they can commit themselves to previous agreements and that they will implement them if those were implemented then perhaps the iranians and the americans would be able to talk about other issues but the americans have gone down a very different road and because of that not only can the iranians not renegotiate the nuclear deal that is impossible but they cannot negotiate with americans on any other issue because the americans are unreliable so trump is has is now standing in a dead end he can only escalate which is dangerous or he has to retreat which is something that i find it very difficult for someone like him to do to remain leverage in washington is there any chance that they can hold talks that are basically built on the idea of mutual interest. I think potentially talks based on mutual interest i have tremendous respect for my my colleague in teheran professor marandi but i think the premise that any talks with the United States based on the United States proving that its a reliable partner are not going to work its not just under the Trump Administration that the United States is not reliable the United States under multiple administrations has has found itself even though it comes the president comes to office constantly demeaning and insulting iran they always come to realize and understand that they need to talk to iran because of the strength of iran in its region and in geopolitics and geo economics each administration comes to understand a need to talk to iran and each administration does try to do so but then in the end is not reliable whether it was the Reagan Administration over in lebanon over u. S. U. S. Hostages whether with the Clinton Administration in bosnia whether was the Bush Administration where i served over afghanistan or even the Obama Administration and now trump the United States is not reliable its the United States is looking at its interests as it sees it and i think there are talks possible based on this idea of mutual interest and perhaps Mutual Respect but the idea that the United States is going to be a reliable partner would defy you know 40 years of u. S. Iranian interaction particularly from the u. S. Side where i see a potential possibility here is that President Trump unlike his predecessors does see some value in having a deal with a strong iran that benefits as trump sees it the United States u. S. Interests and u. S. Companies this is different than prior administrations its still not an ideal situation i would i would think from the iranian perspective or even for other International Partners but it is the one difference the president puts on the table that his predecessors have not so he will show in london whos the u. S. President listening to. Thats a very good question and i think we could probably have a pretty mixed answer given the fact that we now know that he called for air strikes but then recalled to the order given the fact that he felt the proportionality of the consequences which he has told media was would be about 150. 00 deaths wasnt you know aquittal to the unmanned drone that iran had shot down i think the fact that the strikes were actually ordered shows that certain voices were winning at a point in the debate but then because they were recalled perhaps trumps own intuition tempered or somebody else influenced him were not quite sure but what we know in europe is its become very difficult for europeans to see how their voice can matter on the hill and who their allies really are due to the fact that its not just trump and his administration that arent necessarily handling the iran file very well but also democrats have been remarkably quiet until this recent escalation and there are a number of ways in which democrats could help deescalate and help europeans. Make sure that iran sees some value in staying within the constraints of the deal and also not acting out in the region in a way that could bait the trumpet administrations more hawkish voices into conflict mohammed into iran as far as the administration where you are is concerned what so this suspicions as to the 2nd guessing what Donald Trumps game is here i mean you cant threaten conflict is country you cant threaten conflict and push people back to the negotiating table while the iranians believe that. Its the United States thats left the negotiating table the United States was a part of the p 5 plus one and these negotiations had taken place for over a decade so even Rex Tillerson the u. S. Secretary of state the 1st us secretary of state under trump he was at the negotiating table until trump left so thats thats one issue that the 2nd issue is that the very fact that there is so much chaos in the white house and we really dont know what happened we dont know if they seriously were about to carry out a strike we dont know at all often what goes on in the white house in that because theyre and everyone speaks of confusion there and thats another reason why the iranians simply cannot negotiate with the United States theyre both unreliable and its unclear what theyre after the the president is constantly speaking in inconsistent ways and if hes his. Secretary of state and another senior officials like bolton there are language and their statements are inconsistent with what the president says so the iranians basically cannot count on anything that comes out of washington whats important for you ron is that the United States is waging war on iran this is an economic war trump has admitted that and he says its a brutal these are brutal sanctions so hes brutalizing the iranian population hes attacking iranian women and children on a daily basis basically and the iranians are saying that the United States has escalated the situation through not only violating the nuclear deal but trying to harm ordinary iranians as much as possible. Constantly threatening iran we have to remember that trump just recently spoke about destroying iran constantly speaking about all options on the table surrounding himself with people who are constantly speaking about war so the iranians they are the only side that right now are abiding by the nuclear deal for the for the last year the americans left the europeans have not been abiding by any part of the nuclear deal theyre in complete violation because theyre fearful of trump and so the iranians are saying why should we continue to abide by a nuclear deal whereas the other side is doing absolutely nothing so the iranians are in a difficult situation they believe that theyre the ones who are trying to deescalate the situation thats why they remain in the deal but on the other hand we see that the europeans are constantly telling be iranians not to raise tensions whereas its the other side that is raising tensions and the europeans are cooperating with americans to a very large degree ok mohamed let me just pause you there for a 2nd because if what were talking about here is mixed messages from the Trump White House maybe some of those mixed message. Does come from john bolton President Trump security advisor he has long argued for using force against iran now hes been dismissive of International Diplomacy and hes advocated the use of military action he did criticize the 2050 nuclear deal saying quote only bombing by the u. S. And israel would take out irans uranium enrichment installations quotes now he supports the m e k thats an Iranian Opposition group in exile formally listed by the us as a Terror Organization john bolton has repeatedly told the group regime change is needed in tehran mr bolton has adopted a tough approach to iran throughout his professional life for decades hes promised consecutive iranian administrations the u. S. Would quotes come after them hillary in washington has anything weve seen up to now breached the threshold of response because there seems to be a trickle down which is this was an unmanned drone mr trump today talking about that on twitter had it been a manned aircraft maybe we would be having a completely different conversation now. Well i think whats whats potentially interesting and important to see through what is a very dangerous very serious and very very dangerous situation is that while on one hand there is chaos in some sense in the white house and in the teens here there is an intentionality to it that i think is really important to to see and to understand President Trump since the 2016 campaign has focused on basically 2 things of iran iran strength he understands iran strength and either he wants to deal with it where iran is basically working with the United States as trump sees it in u. S. Interests or hes going he looks hes looking to fundamentally weaken iran those are their 2 in some ways 2 diametrically opposed goals but for trump the idea that you can be in a negotiation with iran is real hes in a negotiation in a sense with north korea something that john bolton had also opposed previously and in a sense by iran shooting down this unmanned u. S. Drone which is a large and expensive asset for the United States it gives a ron some leverage in dealing with the trauma ministration and my assessment is that trump is is trying to put that out there too to iran that you get that iran you down this really important expensive asset of the United States and trump has pulled back this is an opportunity for iran with some having the United States pulled back having the United States in a sense stepped out step stepped down for iran to to negotiate or at least talk with the United States not because iran is going to necessarily get that much from the United States but it can constrain the United States so iran can build its relationship with others and to continue to build its own posture in the region so hell in london is parts of the dynamic here as far as mr trump. Kind of backing him self into a corner or being backed into a corner if you will the way that he it would appear as an according to mohamed in tehran that he has 0 traction now with the europeans because they privately and publicly are still on board when it comes to the j c p o a but they cant do anything more than that because tehran and washington are at loggerheads. Well i think id like to agree with a colleague from washington which is that iran may now be in a better place optics wise to enter some kind of a negotiation but i think that what we have to keep in mind is their current limit is the text and the letter of the j c p o a those constraints are ones that they feel that theyve you know a lot really now a lot abide by and the things that are part of the framework that trump wish were a part of the j. C. Namely Ballistic Missiles as well as regional behavior those are things that europeans have also frantically tried to have an add on agreement to the j. C. For in the past before trump withdrew from the deal and i actually i should correct myself trump did not withdraw from the deal he violated the deal and what were seeing is a huge discrepancy where the u. S. Is seen as an actor that can withdraw from International Agreements and iran is seen as a violating it and this goes to show how the International Community is really needed here to step in and urge for restraint but also highlight the fact that all of this escalations are occurring because of the u. S. As with for all or violation from the g c p o a and also it could be a result of those around trump who are trying to bait him into a conflict and for europeans this is extremely risky it is an absolute gamble to think that this is what is needed to get both countries to feel comfortable being in a negotiation but in fact because both countries have now shown their muscle and the u. S. Has shown restraint and an awareness that war would probably break out and be very catastrophic for the middle east that we may have a very narrow window here now for diplomacy and i think europeans need to lead that effort because we need to fold this from being a u. S. Iran conversation in. Into something more multilateral and im not just speaking about the participants in the j. C. P. O. A but if we start to talk about those things that trump wanted to speak about like Ballistic Missiles we really need to have a regional conversation on what constraints make sense for iran in the context of what other countries are also willing to concede hillary 2 points if that window for opportunity is closing just interruptions to and hold out for for a 2nd if that window for opportunity is closing picking up on that point from sahil in london saying its got to be a multilateral approach was the approach historically before donald trump more productive because it wasnt primarily a binary choice it wasnt washington versus tehran there were lots of other people in the mix but those people are now not in the mix and theyre feeling threatened and perhaps more aggressive than they were even just 4 weeks ago or 6 months ago. Well the reality is that the other parties were ineffectual the europeans did not keep up their side of the of the deal with iran not even the chinese and even keep up their side neither did the russians the reality is and what trump i think lays bare to the world is that the United States in a lot of ways is still the is still the superpower the aggressive belligerent superpower and here i think its important to understand again 2 things for trump he has complete disdain for the j c p a way really not because of iran but because of the europeans he does not want to benefit European Companies or Chinese Companies in doing business with iran hes focused on iran in either one of 2 ways and theyre diametrically opposed and theyre really important to understand to either have a great deal that he can show that he achieved in. Opposition to his predecessor president obama that doesnt have to even deal with any specifics about melissa missiles or anything else its just a deal that trump can pack can tout as his own the diametrically excuse me oppose goal of tribe which is also important to understand is that if he cant get a bigger better deal with oil with with iran that he can tout as his own then i think he is fundamentally looking to weaken if not destroy iran and i think he is willing to burn the persian gulf along with iran that will give him a Good Opportunity to focus on domestic here in the United States domestic oil and gas drilling and fracking which he sees as really important for his reelection for the United States to become an Energy Superpower to have Energy Dominance and the on the International Stage so these are 2 very different goals and if he can get a deal with iran that would be great for him but if he cant this idea that hes going to settle for some middle of the road diffusing of tension keeping the price of gasoline down i dont think that theyre i think his other goal though the other side of the extreme is all. So theyre to fundamentally weaken if not destroy iran and push up propel the United States as an Energy Superpower that will be to the detriment of not just iran but traditionally Important Oil and Gas Producers like author and russia ok mohamed very very briefly please mohamed because were trusting towards the end of a discussion does this increase the charms of an escalation if only as a miscalculation hauty if its a manned aircraft horse if theres another u. S. S. This sense july the 1988 when a u. S. Naval ship misidentified a civilian aircraft well the iranians or dont believe that the u. S. Misidentified that civilian aircraft and they gave false information to it in the International Community in the western media accepted that information until years later when it came out that they had lied and that is something that iranians believe is happening today the iranians dont believe the american version of what happened with the drone the iranians have recovered pieces of the drone in their territorial waters and they believe that the United States doesnt want the 2 to come out and the commanders of the Iranian Armed forces actually said that there was an american spy plane with i mean 35 americans on board that entered iranian airspace but when the iranians warn them to leave they left so the iranians do not want to attack american soldiers they just want to protect their sovereignty and therefore i think this shows that its the iranians by staying within the j c p o a by refraining from attacking manned aircraft even though there were inside iranian territorial waters that iran is behaving. Reasonably but that the United States is not and the big danger is a youre absolutely correct if the United States goes down this road then i think it would be a tragedy for the International Community of oil and gas installations in the Persian Gulf Region will be destroyed that ok it was destroyed it 100. 00 with a lot of stuff. Because i want to live. In london if i may and i do apologize as usual for interrupting you mohammed seal show in london is the 3rd way solution here i mean why not say used back Channel Communications to talk to the new relatively new iranian envoy to the u. N. He is formally a Nuclear Negotiator he knows what all the cards on the table oh well president rouhani himself is a former chief negotiator so i think that what we really need to do is try to figure out a way in the short term to stabilize what could turn out to be escalation in a number of flashpoints between the u. S. And iran but in the medium to long term Europe Russia and china really need to get together and figure out how they can sustain they are the iranian economy in some way iran has accepted that its not going to get to any of the pre secondary sanctions levels but really you know were on a slippery slope on the nuclear side whilst climbing a ladder on the military side and the 2 together is quite could be quite disastrous so i dont see a 3rd way solution outside of the framework which was already agreed upon in the j. C. P. O. Way unfortunately the iranians improperly rightfully see what trump is offering in terms of talks as not genuine because in the same breath theyre also announcing sanctions for example very shortly before. The japanese leader was in tehran they announced new sanctions on the petrochemical industry so its not seen as genuine and therefore there isnt much of a 3rd way out of the Current Crisis other than just were trying to at best return to as much as we can of the chase c. P. O. Way and for here the unions that may mean not saying things like its essentially game over for europeans if iran starts to blur the lines but to figure out how to ensure that those blurry. Things of lines dont result in things that are unacceptable to the u. S. And will lead to conflict ok we have to leave our conversation there thank you so much to all our guests today on inside story they were Mohammad Marandi Hillary Mann Leverett and sahil shah and thank you too for your company you can see the show again anytime on the website aljazeera dot com and for more discussion to check out our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also talk to us on twitter im happy to be one of the programs handle is at a. G. Inside story from the peace building and the team here in the doha thanks for watching well do it all again at the same time tomorrow. Monitor the truck quantify im valued looseleaf data being a new car fold up on your data your identity is a commodity and you have to understand where im from when it come from us the us it is time to reclaim our cyber sounds so we have to put in them a something that can all be sold we are creators we are optimists we are. Give us back our data just so you know. The countdown to the 2020 Us Democratic primaries has begun. The televised debate sees candidates go head to head to define themselves on the issues from Climate Change to Foreign Policy john is in miami on june the 26th and 27th for the 1st u. S. Democratic debate on al jazeera. This is aljazeera. And im nick clegg this is news on live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes. I didnt like it i didnt think it was i didnt think it was proportionate donald trump explains why he called off strikes against iran after the downing of an american drone. As iran shows off the wreckage of the downed on monday across the revolutionary guard says it decided not to attack another u. S. Spy plane flying nearby with 35. 00 crew onboard. Crowds gather again into. Protests in hong kong demanding controversial plans for extradition to china are entirely scrapped. Im Maryam Namazie in london with the top stories from europe including a 2nd day of mass demonstrations enjoy a job to protest against russian influence turned violent overnight. In sports trying to get the Cricket World Cup Campaign back on track they beat in a host singham by 20 runs through 506 reaching the 70. 7 u. S. President donald trump says he called off a retaliatory military strike on iran just 10 minutes before its supposed to go ahead the commander in chief says the probable deaths as a result of the strike was disproportionate to the downing of an unmanned american drone United States is now planning to call a closed door meeting of the u. N. Security council to discuss tensions with iran and lets now go to our White House Correspondent kimberly how could you tell us more what the about what the president has been saying. Yeah on the heels of the Early Morning tweets by the u. S. President where he gave the world a little bit of understanding about why he decided to stop that imminent strike by the United States on iran the president now giving an interview to an American News network where he states that he did not actually give final approval the planes were not yet in the air but certainly the preparations for a strike on iran were in the works. About ready to go i said i want a better line from the air were playing and were about ready to go no but they would have been pretty soon. And things would have happened to a point where you would turn back you couldnt turn back so they came in they said sure were ready to go wed like a decision i said i want to know something before you go how many people will be killed approximately 150 and i thought about it for a 2nd i said you know what they shut down an iron man and. Drone plane whatever you want to call it and here we are busy sitting with 150. 00 dead people that would have taken place probably within a half an hour after i said go ahead and i didnt like it but whats the feeling kimberly in congress about all this whats going on. Well congress is certainly taking notice of a telephone call that the us president has made since we learned of the imminent strike on iran that was abruptly halted and that was the 1st telephone call according to a readout by the White House Press secretary or rather the White House Press office was to the Saudi Crown Prince mohammed bin solvent the focus of that conversation the threat posed by iranian regimes escalatory behavior according to that readout no notable in all of that is there is no mention of the murder of Washington Post journalist. That of course the cia as well as the u. S. Congress has concluded that the Saudi Crown Prince was involved in the ordering of that killing as well as the United Nations this week also in its investigation revealing that mohammed bin selma knew of the murder no mention of that in the readout so certainly given the fact that the u. S. Congress has made a strong effort in light of that killing to limit arms sales by the United States to saudi arabia there is a bit of question mark going up about why the president would make that 1st telephone call to the Saudi Crown Prince were also getting a little bit of news nic about the meeting that took place here in the situation room at the white house just prior to that imminent strike on iran that we know was called off and that is among crew gresham ill leaders who presumably were briefed on the intelligence by the United States by some of the Senior Administration officials now palosi the House Speaker a top democrat the house representative saying that she was not given a heads up about this strike being in the works she also says that during that meeting in the situation room that will democrats and republicans were bipartisan in their message to the president that he needed to d. Ask the situation with iran this is notable because democrats republicans never get along and dont seem to see eye to eye. In recent years in the United States but on this they were very unified sending that message to the president also that he should have the authorization of congress before any sort of escalatory behavior particularly militarily so these are all interesting details that are now coming out as we have here in the United States woke up to the news of course that the strike on iran by the United States was imminent but abruptly called off by the u. S. President so were continuing to follow these developments but the latest of course the news lines from the u. S. President that the planes were not in fact in the air and that he had reconsidered given the fact that he was concerned about the toll and human life are generally thanks very much as they can be how could their the White House Well iran denied receiving warnings of an imminent attack goal being given a deadline to engage in talks those jabari reports now from tehran these are allegedly parts of the u. S. Drone that iran shot down over the strait of hormuz iran says a drone was in its airspace. It was as in the post own forces showed that on National Security is a red line we gave a warning to the stone in 2 steps and several times in each step this drone has a Communication System which transfers the message back to base on a 40 they didnt respond to give a last warning at 355 and when it continued into a territory it was shut down for 5. Iranian reports that this aircraft was shot down over iran or categorically faults the aircraft was over the strait of hormuz and fell into International Waters in a meeting with the canadian Prime Minister on thursday trump had this to say i think probably iran. I made a mistake i would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down i find it hard to believe it was intentional if you want to know the truth i think that it could have been somebody who is loose and stupid president has made clear in the past he favors some form of negotiation to resolve the crisis rather than armed action but this situation remains extremely volatile Many International airliners are now voting in the area. Just last week 2 oil tankers were targeted in the strait of hormuz the us blamed the iranians the iranians that i involved meant the revolutionary guard says it has exercise restraint and now so has the u. S. President but these are still dangerous developments that could ignite this entire region Dorsett Jabari Al Jazeera terror on well lets discuss this now in the studio with me for telling the judge is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center all this everything thats happened over the last 24 hours over the last 48 hours just demonstrates that there are there are just no risk free options are there absolutely so things cannot continue like this because there is always the danger of miscalculation we have seen enough posting from both sides and now that its high time for a diplomatic solution to to emerge on the horizon but this again is also complicated because we have basically you know from the iranian side at least publicly because they still think they have to keep on doing what they have been doing in order to increase their leverage at the United States and but we also have good signs because we have the 12 maximalist demands views of iran put forward by secretary of state pompei o but most recently the u. S. Signaled that they might engage in negotiations without preconditions but iran has said that theyre not interested in talking with us publicly at. They sat so but there is also no alternative for the iranians other than talking to the United States because after all its the United States with its sanctions regime that is really hurting the iranian economy and given the economic crisis that has already existed in iran they have to talk to the United States so at the end of the day despite me some efforts from other International Players as up to both iran and washington to sit together and find a diplomatic solution how would that work would that work through a mediator or would there be back channel talking going on how would it work well in the past weve seen that oman has played a role. Before the start of the a. J. C. A negotiation process a man has still this role there is also switzerland that is the diplomatic representative of the United States in iran and also japan and also European Countries so there is a lot of International Players who could play a facilitating role but after all its not up to them its up to the both the United States and iran to decide on talks so what about the american strategy what do you make of donald trump narrative in the way things unfolded overnight and the fact that he said 10 minutes before the strike was due to happen he decided against it because of the danger of fatalities this might also be part of u. S. Postering views of iran to show that we are capable of hitting but we did not chose to choose to do so that on the other side it also signaled some disagreements within the white house would trump right now seems to be the more mature one. Of those who are for a military limited strike retaliation like his National Security adviser john bolton but also secretary of state pompei o so for now it trumps rational that he is not interested to wage war on iran because it. Goods counter his Campaign Promises these of years constituency because a war with iran would fuel oil with the rise of oil prices and it would not speak good for his chances of reelection so if this rationale persists we might not see a large will and had this strike taken place had he gone ahead with it what kind of retaliation might we have seen from iran well if really 150 people would have been killed on the iranian side i think the iranians to safeguard their face and the public would have had to respond. Also the same as holds true vice versa if for example the iranians wouldve killed. An american soldier or more the u. S. Would have had to respond so all this shows how volatile the situation is all right well leave it there thanks very much very interesting if only for the in the job thanks very much indeed now thousands of protesters in hong kong are surrounding Police Headquarters the latest demonstrations there against the government protesters are calling for a complete withdrawal of an extradition bill that could see suspects taken to Mainland China for trial there are also angry with the police for using force in earlier protests and ice demonstrations have been held over the past 2 weeks and the crowds are not showing any signs of backing down right as more. Protest is back on