Detention center six hundred refugees are refusing to leave the australian run facility despite it being closed by authorities last week they say its not safe for them to move to new accommodation in the local community what is for you right after inside story next. Documentaries that open your eyes at this time on aljazeera. Donald trumps in asia where one name dominates talks north korea the us president says patience with pyongyang and its missile tests is over what is he able to do and what he perceives to washingtons socalled pivot to asia this is inside story. And i welcome to the program im jane doctrine dont underestimate America Donald trumps message as he kicked off his twelve day tour of asia his first as u. S. President trade deals are on the agenda but one subject overtakes all tensions with north korea trump again in japan a meeting with a man he appears to see as he is new best buddy Prime Minister shinzo of a lunch of burgers and a round of golf he addressed u. S. Forces at the base near tokyo speaking highly of american dominance and promised his troops an upcoming shipment of arms all this talk about u. S. Military superiority is related to the conflict with north korea both trump and say all options are on the table the era of strategic patience is over. Some people said that my rhetoric is very strong but look whats happened with very weak rhetoric over the last twenty five years look where we are right now. Thats all said there are there is no point in dialogue for the sake of dialogue with north korea now is the time not for dialogue but for applying maximum pressure on north korea we completely agreed that for north korea to change its policy japan and the us must take leadership roles and closely collaborating with the International Community so that we can enhance the pressure over north korea through all possible means which im going to have as big talk on north korea could pose problems at the u. S. President s next stop south korea charmes war of words with north korea has produced a lot of fear in seoul south korean president moon j. N. Said this week no military action should be taken without his consent china is also wrapped up in the north korea conflict trump and president xi jinping will have talks trump telling china previously it wasnt doing enough to help in vietnam north korea might take a back seat trumps expected to talk about a free and open indopacific region an Asia Pacific Economic cooperation or apec meeting and then is off to the philippines and a meeting with president rodrigo to ted will they talk trade military bases or the war on drugs this is chance longest foreign trip yet hes played it says a barack obama or suspends a lot of time in the region as part of his socalled pivot to asia is trying planning to continue on that path well lets now bring in our guests joining us in beijing and our tangan political analyst and advisor to the Chinese Government in singapore james dorsey senior fellow at the s. Rajaratnam school of International Studies and in boston katherine moon professor of Asian Studies at Wellesley College a very warm welcome to all three of you n. Our tangan this is a massive trip for a man who says he doesnt like to take long trips away from home what sort of statement is it and to whom. Well theres a number of statements first off hes happy to be out of washington d. C. Especially with things unfolding as they have been with his aides and other people within his cabinet there have been a number of blockbuster revelations but in terms of this trip he is trying to deliver trying to get since read some energy into his kind of moribund lack of ability to get things done in d. C. By in essence delivering some red meat to the Political Base that he treasures he wants to come to asia he wants them to know that hes there to make deals that he will use his strategic advantage security as a blunt instrument in order to get what he wants which are trade concessions said catherine maine a probably delighted to be home on the plane has raised by an hour but what do you think hes going to find then whats the message we know at this stage that the t p p in the pivot out question is whats in. Well mr trump does not have a big vision or a grand strategy for east asia so hes focusing on specific deals primarily i think if we look at his success in japan it says something he has had he has been able to get the japanese government to agree to military sales from the United States so thats good for u. S. Military companies and also he got the japanese government to agree to impose unilateral sanctions on north korea so on two of things that he cares about trade as well as north korea he has one in japan already what is interesting is that the next stops south korea will not go as smoothly as it has in japan there are many more contentious issues and south korea and particular is very wary of mr trumps. Rhetoric in the recent months and his belittling of the south korean president mr moon in by calling him an appeaser relict visa vi into korean relations south koreas relations with north korea so he has still a long long way to travel in asia and then of course he will round out his trip with his new buddy mr du tear today in the philippines so hes starting out with a good friend and he wants to end on a good note in a country where someone who basically is like a fog is running the country so interesting book and james dorsey what do you make of this trip the duration and the ultimate aim here. I would argue that i would agree with the previous biggest but i would argue that there is both the domestic message as my colleague in boston described but theres also an agent message it is a message of support in our lives to u. S. Allies in the region its a message to north korea. I think the issues here are that were dealing with different Donald Trumps if you wish theres a donald trump who is bombastic if you speak who is personal in terms of his criticisms of others and his taps but theres also donald trump who despite what he says allows his cabinet ministers but barely secretaries of defense. And states to pursue policies that are less aggressive ok picking up on that point about allowing people to pursue policies and allowing the military to take decisions into their own hands we had that the pentagon released a statement a not that a full scale Ground Invasion is the only way to end the arsenal launches coming from north korea i mean is that what the region is preparing for have you been told about that. Well i dont think that is a realistic things what youre talking about logistically would be very very difficult if you go back to desert storm and you see how long it took to mount an offensive a full scale invasion the number of troops the backup support the tanks everything involved this is not something youre going to do over a fortnight not even a month this would take months not not six months to try to put together i think this is just part of this kind of badminton game that good trump is playing with the other trump saying that you know on one hand im im reasonable ill listen to madison and less i fire him and on the other hand im willing to do whatever it takes hes ratcheted up at a wreck and by doing so increase the tensions and hes using that as a leverage point in order and what i think is really john is and i do with my colleague agree with my colleague in boston that this is simply a way of getting trade concessions which he can then take back to the people of the United States and see here i am the great deal maker because catherine if they went to be an attack on north korea then the victims would be japan and south korea. Absolutely and south koreas president in has made it clear on several occasions publicly that the u. S. Cannot and must not commit any kind of military intervention on the peninsula without the consent of the south Korean People now one could say that thats just a rhetorical demand but nevertheless it is the South Koreans who will face the brunt of any kind of military intervention i just want to add this that i find it interesting one of our speakers said that there are multiple traumas or at least two tribes and indeed in japan mr trump met with japanese families of abductees people who were taken by north korea in the seventys and eightys and have not been able to. Rejoin their families in japan and some of them may have indeed died in north korea so when he met with the families of the abductees he included this statement which is really interesting he said that it would be a tremendous signal and im reading here his words if north korea would send them back. And that would be the quote start of something very very special typical trump language but again and an expected possible olive branch and the only problem is with mr trump that even if he says something that is not on escuela tory any day any moment he could send a twitter storm out raising that rhetoric or raising the raising the bar so we dont know how stable. And predictable his words can be and im afraid that asian nations actually read him the same way james im wondering how his tweets play out in your studies and then when it comes to putting policy together in the sort of conversations that all these leaders are having ahead of trumps visit and sitting down talking to them well i think there are several things here one is has some predictability and thats something that he wants i think that part of his of predictability is by just sorry and part of this is is by clever what i also think is that donald trump does not want to be engaged in a major ground war a third war after iraq and now and alongside of. What i think were seeing is a strategy in which he is blistering and threatening and aggressive and thats a strategy that so far has failed to impress the North Koreans nor it has worried some of its allies it has really oppressed the chinese to the best of my knowledge but at the same time lets face it yes a lot of this is about trade but. The United States is a Pacific Power it does have interests in the region a Nuclear North Korea is an issue with us to come to grips with. Lysis mission is that what hes trying to do is ratchet up sanctions in a way that that over whatever period of time he can force north korea on its nice whether that succeeds or not the second issue and at the same time he is preparing for a military option but thats the least favorite option what are the conversation be and when he gets over to china will we see a push for more sanctions i mean theres talk about targeting countries that sell north koreas weapons which bring in a large amount of money to north korea i mean is that the sort of conversation that will be pushed as opposed to military confrontation possibly. Well quite frankly its very difficult to see whether youre going to get jekyll or hyde when he arrives in beijing i think a lot of it from the chinese perspective is going to be welcoming him in giving him the big kind of grandiose welcome and affecting him great length and this goes a long way towards getting into dunk trumps good books what he does from there very unknown hes left his china hawks at home but hes still there still very vocal in what theyre saying bannon is on the sidelines saying screaming that china is the enemy and they need to be dealt with meanwhile hes its just very unclear which side of his cabinet hes with at any particular time as catherine said in boston in one one moment hes you know saying something conciliatory for instance he said id be willing to meet with anybody that would be a good start and then at the next moment hes saying that they have to be dealt with a little rocket man all this kind of stuff maybe we should do it with catherine and maybe you got some thoughts on this the indepth fick policy that they talking about what is this policy is it a strategy what should we invasion when they talk about that. Thats a very good question because this has come out of fin air as far as it coming from the white house in truth the United States does not i repeat does not have an extract of g. E. The whole notion came from the japanese so it is a japanese idea and they have been studying this for quite some time it is a idea to get a consortium of democracies in east asia going as a way to contain china so primarily consisting of japan australia india the United States and this is not for example of a replacement or a sarah gift for t. P. P. Which some people think it could be i absolutely would disagree with that there is not much content there i do want to add something about trumps visit to china that is upcoming what is interesting is that everybody is pretty sure he will not pick on the south china seas issue with the chinese and it is not an issue he particularly cares about at least in public but the fact that hes going to vietnam and not only for the apec meeting but also will go have a bilateral with the president of vietnam in hanoi which is symbolic i think that is a way to to give assurance to southeast asians to the audience members that the u. S. Understands their concern about china even if theyre very friendly with china on trade issues and that freedom of navigation of that south china seas is something that is very important on the u. S. Says Foreign Policy agenda for east asia so in that sense i think it is a smart move not to raise it in terms of temperature but to at least show up where the countries care about freedom of navigation james its a its a real balancing act isnt it. Pursuing a policy that basically pushes china away donald trump needs china they both need each other but weve got to change and paying on a high now after election victories in that country weve got a high i want a way this leaves Donald Trumps leverage and hes negotiating power with all of these nations well i think thats absolutely true i mean in a sense i think what were dealing with is a donald trump who for whom the concept of americas role in the world still revolting i think the concept that he had when he was on the campaign trail and what he is for you and to the will of the oval office and the concept of. A horse in chains since you have to the oval office is still a process in motion and that part of this trip is in many ways going to go to find that i think its actually true that he doesnt have a strategy and that reduces leverage is very much someone who has issues oriented very but someone who was sensitive ones because he said earlier about how your speeches and if he is treated with the proper respect and with the proper recognition then he is more amenable so i think a lot of that is the going to play out in in beijing but i also think that one of the things that trouble is Real Engineers the United States has dziedzic interests in asia whether its trade whether its security. Whether its americas place in the world all of those things come together in asia and so trump has to come to grips with whether he with wants to or not and i know that i guess its important at this time when. Jip politically the u. S. Has been weakened i mean look at them putting out of the middle east for example so many areas where they have lost dominance is this a region an area that they can still claim a strong footprint and thats a real question a lot of it will depend on these kind of how much heat theyre able to generate among us in our nations about freedom of navigation now i believe that this is spirit spurious china has absolute interest in maintaining clear seaways two point three trillion in trade and also they have to import their resources so i think this is rather fallacious the the issue here is what is the u. S. Offering me right now donald trump has gotten concessions from japan hes going to be looking for concessions from south korea but what is he putting on the table other than quote im your security blanket so this is why i said earlier hes using security as a blunt instrument to get what he wants in terms of trade i dont think that this is a long term alternative when you start creating uncertainty this is the anathema of both business and diplomacy you cannot formulate policies if you dont know what the other side is doing so i think in the end this backfires for him and catherine it seems that there is a delicate balance that works in that region so empowering somebody like there for example with the promise of of of more troops in the region a suggestion that he possibly will buy military hardware from the u. S. Change the the constitution how much of a concern is all of that in this changing dynamic. Well i think we have to give the asian leaders more credit then trump may be willing to because as much as mr abbay and others put on a good show for trumps visit they are of course they want to have good relations and stronger relations with the United States but its for their own National Interest it has nothing to do with making trump happy as a same time whats interesting right now is because the asians are wary of the general u. S. Commitment to asia under trump japan and india are throwing around the idea of a military alliance which would be allied against china that would be a major game changer in the region at the same time japan and china are actively in recent weeks improving their relationship and making it very explicitly public so thats a good thing but they are theyre basically playing multiple games and then of course south korea and china on the eve of mr trumps visit to asia made friends they reconciled on the issue of fad the u. S. Missile Defense System that is in placed in korea which the chinese were very very adamantly opposed to now the chinese and South Koreans have come to terms and they are getting back on track in terms of a Good Relationship so the Asian Countries are maneuvering to basically make sure they have plan b. Plan c. In case the u. S. Is not a reliable partner if i may add theres also the reality that this trip is in a way of a bit of a waste specially of the u. S. Taxpayer money and of opportunities because i think we need to think about the issues that will not be raised for example the fact that South Koreans want to develop their own domestic. Nuclear arsenal which would be a major slap in the face against u. S. Nonproliferation effort and increase an arms race in east asia the fact that japan with mr abbate triumphant reelection recently wants to change the peace constitution that would be a serious changing of the post World War Two security arrangements and assumptions in east asia and there are other issues like that which i know that mr trump is not only unwilling to raise but frankly i dont think he is capable of addressing these very complex issues james im wondering what would be considered a success after this trip for the u. S. Administration and for all the countries involved what would they be looking for i mean has it given an idea world if scrum would get what he wants to make though it would be of course stronger consensus if it were action rather than just words. On both korea and it would be what he calls they were aggressive vote for a grill exams i dont think hes going to get that. But that would be the ideal outcome for him so it really depends to what degree he gets at least some movement in that direction i dont think that the equation is simply security for trade i think that there is a sincere interest in the security of u. S. Allies in the region but i think youre at the same time is and will be demanding that the un what he views is something. Be revised and weve seen no indication of that yet weve seen some lipservice in japan. All right all three of you thank you very much for wrapping up that talk for us and our tangan james dorsey and katherine moon good to chat to you and thank you very much for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website else is there a dot com for further discussion go to our Facebook Page you can find that at facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a. J. Inside story mine is actually jane duncan and for me in the race the teen im sort of a. You and. For twenty three years mohsin has collected objects he finds along the coast. Enough to fill his museum enough to break a Guinness World record. With a story for every object has become an environmental activist and inspired artists on the voice for the plight of countless migrants. Such as this time on aljazeera. With bureaus running Six Continents across the globe. To. Aljazeera has correspondents live in green the stories they tell. Us about it. Aljazeera fluent in world news afghanistan has the best yalit both men resources i refer to why are they so who are the measuring guys which finally form a government that we may have the toughest when essentially delaware the more we would close and the more they push back we knew it was coming the question was do we sit back and wait for our to surprise them with a preemptive strike on the other one at this time ill just hear. Aljazeera. Where every. Everything you do is being analyzed its being weighed and measure thats what intelligence agencies are tossed to do things in secret that are unlawful or politically embarrassing all of the colleagues that i knew chose to retire from the n. S. A. Leaker could not stand by and see all the work that they had done being used for mass surveillance digital dissidents at this time on aljazeera. South koreas president welcomes donald trump to seoul the Nuclear Standoff with north korea top of their agenda