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I welcome to the program im jane dothan the killing of dozens of policeman in egypt is raising more questions about how secure the country really is a Police Convoy was ambushed in the Western Deserts in the latest gun battle of these fifty five police were killed and others wounded fifteen attackers were reportedly killed police were following a tip off about a possible hideout of an armed group a state of emergency has been enforced in egypt since earlier this year when dozens of minority christians were killed in a series of attacks on churches each of facing attacks from at least two armed groups concentrated in sinai and i solicited and a group called hossam a many particularly in the media have accused has some of carrying out the latest attack movements claimed several attacks over the past year which have targeted judges and police as well as the attempted murder of egypt former grand mufti the Egyptian Government says hossam is a part of the band Muslim Brotherhood which denies the allegations as it has gained power over the past four years and general a little since the ouster. President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood has been appears to target police and the Security Services in contrast to other groups such as i salute frequently target civilians both muslim and christian now the christian minority which is about ten percent of the egyptian population is often targeted similar previous attacks have included around thirty christians were killed in may when a bus carrying them to monastery in many a province was attacked on palm sunday in april at least forty five church guys were killed and dozens wounded in two separate suicide attacks on churches in the cities of tanta and alexandria and cairo as large as all the docs church was bombed last december killing at least twenty five people eisel claimed responsibility for most of those attacks well lets bring in our guests now joining us from cairo on skype is timothy kaldis nonresident fellow institute for middle east politics from berlin ahmad badawi Senior Researcher for the center for middle eastern and north african politics at the Free University of berlin of mit is also the author of the political economy of egypt and a c. C. And in london in black visiting senior fellow at the middle east center at the London School of economics a very warm welcome to all three of you let me start off with you timothy kaldis it staggering loss for the egyptian Security Services what do you hearing about todays events and how it unfolded or not theres a lot of conflicting reports. Some people saying fourteen killed some something thirty something over fifty. Theres also a lot of confusion about whos responsible no official claim of responsibility and the states response so far as to say a number of Security Officers were killed but not to specify that number. A parliamentarian whos close to the government must talk about the. He claims that as many as one hundred. Militants ambushed the Security Forces that would be a quite remarkable number of turns out to be anywhere near true thats a thats a huge gathering. Of militants in one place. There shes also saying that theres many casualties but again not specifying so is a lot of confusion at the moment there isnt there hasnt been a lot of clarity on whats going on and where the victim count stands exactly and tim wondering what sort of impact this has on a place like kabul like way you are when people hear about such staggering losses the fact that this insurgency continues to rumble on and that we seeing it pop up in different places well i mean the response so far has been a lot of people. Mourning the victims mourning the losses expressing condolences to the families theres been a lot of that theres been some questions about how this could happen. With the intel its not that it properly how did they get put in the situation there are been reports including from becky that there was issues with communication in the area because cell phone signal is weak someone else pointed out well you wouldnt expect the police to be using cell phones to communicate you expect them to use radios. So theres theres a i mean so theres two different time to responses and theres a natural human response to to offer condolences for such a huge loss in the same time theres a lot of questions about how this could happen and why its not being why there isnt more information being put forward also the press is kind of in an awkward position in terms of reporting on it because while the International Press has been putting out numbers in egypt its illegal to discuss to say anything about terrorism related operations without that differs in any way from the governments official position official statements so for the a for the Egyptian Press to come out with any figures that contradict the government they could be at risk of legal consequences im so im a bit dodgy what did you think when you heard what happened and the way it happened and the losses. The first initial reaction of course was surprise. The latest reports talk of about fifty plus casualties from the Egyptian Security side. I wonder how many how many does it take to inflict that high number of casualties on a supposedly a highly trained Security Service like the ships or Security Service because you would think that if they went on from there then they they possibly had some sort of intel on what they were about to face this is the other point that i wanted to make because there are also reports that the insurgents have received information about the operation and they were ready for it but that again throws some very serious questions about how much is the ships and Security Service bennets rated by by the insurgents. There is definitely an issue with efficiency this is not the first time that Security Services whether its the ministry of interior or the or the military. Have such such a large loss but this time is even more. Demoralizing because that apparently there was diet of combat between the Security Services and the insurgents and again the throws many question marks about the capacity of the Egyptian State to fight the insurgency and dont forget the big part of the legitimacy of the current regime is pinned on the capacity of the regime to fight terrorism and until now very few victories in this fight so far that would be pretty staggering wouldnt it in black if the Security Services have been infiltrated to such an extent where they are harming their own i mean what do you make of the most recent attack and what it portrays of whats going on in the country. For the shit i think the first thing to say is a. The sheer scale of it is really quite shocking i think that if you follow whats happening in egypt you are accustomed to hearing every so often of attacks which take place it has to be said mostly in sinai of course there have been incidents in the nile valley as well but something on this scale if the reports are correct and i dont see where they shouldnt be if i think fifty five dead members of the Security Forces. What is it south west of cairo in the desert that is that is a very very serious incidents and will attract you know. Unusual attention to whats going on the scale of the insurgency if it can involve numbers like this is very very striking and you raise an important point sorry about not the fact that they are seeing these attacks seem to be springing up in why that area is dont they they seem to be finding new targets well i mean you know the conventional view of egypt would say there is a quite a serious insurgency going on in the sinai peninsula. That is clearly linked to isis to die i was just reading something there were a couple of attacks in the last few days by the way before this which would have attracted less attention because theyre more common but on a smaller scale there was one. On the coast of sinai and another in. The way they think so attacks in sinai are common they tend to be relatively small scale this is a different matter its in the its in the heartland of egypt proper and the size of it is is is really breathtaking the other issue seems to me interested to hear what the other two guests say we dont really know definitively who these people are there is this movement called has some. Which is an arabic acronym. Who is it ive seen reports that it is linked to the group. This which was the isis affiliate if you like in sinai which is know using a different name there are claims of course from the Egyptian Government that it is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood which as you said denies that but who they actually are what is behind these attacks in the getting from sinai that is a very very big question a type of this size or an incident of this size is clearly going to require some clear answers than weve had already i would have thought timothy who comes to mind first of all an end was correct how the government very keen to blame how some annoys the Muslim Brotherhood whenever there is any particular strike but does this bear any resemblance to any of the other groups that weve seen recently i mean. Who could do such a thing i just i just respond to one thing that you know brought up. Whoevers claiming that housman and the bit to mock this are connected. Thats a very thats a very spurious claim im not saying that you know that but. But seems to be very unlikely their targets are different their tactics are different their propaganda is different. They seem to be quite ideologically distinct. With respect to the brotherhood i mean its very possible that people who left the brotherhood would would be attracted to a group like hudson that it is focusing on Security Forces in response to the removal of morsy weve seen that in the past brotherhood members who. Are unsatisfied with the tactics that dont involve violence against the state losing. And moving on to more militant groups in the past whether or not theres a direct connection between the brother and has so far theres really no clear evidence to support. So for now we dont really have any basis for confirming that. Yes should of course the judges will want to associate all violence against the state with the brotherhood of possible as constantly Security Officials who will do interviews and say that sort of thing i saw i saw an officer doing that on egyptian t. V. Today and also for being cut to answer the question and saying that theyre funding all these groups as well particularly because when you get into the Western Desert youve got groups that are also coming in that are in contact with people in libya and there is arms moving back and forth. So theres suggestion that those groups are connected. Ok let me ask you you think it might be and it theres such. Widespread concern that egypt is a very good green breeding ground for these types of groups now because of the repression repressive measures measures taken by the government the Economic Conditions of the country at the moment i mean what do you think is happening and houses what is this face string into well i think there is a security dimension to this and there is a political dimension to this which we should not forget in terms of the security dimension of course what happened in the last four years has radicalized a lot of young people whether they are affiliated to the muslim brothers or salafist or just independent islamists they got radicalized and it was not difficult for them i suppose to make the simple connection between the oppression of the regime and the need to fight this regime with force on the political dimension there is obviously absolutely nobody can deny that there is a link between whats happening now and the overall political stalemate in the country the ousting of the muslim brothers from power in such a violent way four years ago is the direct cause for the Islamist Insurgency that has been going on since then without some kind of a political settlement some kind of a solution to this this problem this this fight between the regime and the muslim brothers i think this insurgency will continue and i think its quite ironic that the egyptian regime has taken credit for reconciling thought to hummus and that cannot do the same with its own counterpart in egypt it cannot get its own house in order without some kind of. Reintegration of the muslim brothers in the political process the insurgency is likely to continue and thats the political dimension of all these all this violence that weve seen recently ok well talk more about the politics a little later on but and lets talk about. Hamas i mean thats a very good point edge it egypt has been overseeing the latest reconciliation between hamas and fatah weve had hamas move into egypt they have become increasingly close will that lead to an improvement in security because egypt often blamed hamas for allowing weapons to be smuggled into egypt behind. Accuse them of being behind some of the violence when i think that the i think its clear that the egyptian role which is very very important in trying to bring about the reconciliation between hamas and fatah the two Palestinian Movement is to a considerable degree motivated by their own security concerns theres no question that the situation in sinai with the where the insurgency has been going on there for for quite a while is a matter of enormous concern to the authorities in in cairo so theres Egyptian Security theres a question of palestinian unity and we have seen in the last couple of weeks these really extraordinary images of the head of egyptian intelligence embracing the mass leaders in gaza as they try to try to broker this and theres also. Plenty of comment to the effect that the recent attacks particularly a couple earlier this week. In sinai were in response to the egyptian rep processional with hamas which is seen as i think correctly is inimical to the interests of the of the Reliant Center the sinai. The the isis affiliate in sinai so i think thats very clear that the egyptian motivation is about is about that remember these are people who really didnt like each other at all the egyptians always associated hamas with the Muslim Brotherhood and theres no question about the hostility of the c. C. Government. To the Muslim Brotherhood were seeing how much there would be a little but in the midst of this latest development and the overtures towards hamas the fighting in sinai i mean well i think what does that leave them and i think well i think actually the israelis in the short to medium term are probably quite happy with this. I mean this is that this is really a different issue what the israelis how the israelis see in trip palestinian reconciliation but i think they have a short term interest in calming the situation in the gaza strip but no expectation that they will be faced with a difficult choice about the inclusion of high mass in some kind of Peace Initiative theyve been very aggressive on that point and insisting that it has to recognize israel and give up violence conditions which are at the highly unlikely to be met in the shorter term i think they probably would welcome. Anything that calms the situation in sinai its on their borders and theyve been attacks rocket attacks from from within sinai into israeli territory so theyre a short term if you like military security calculations and different longer term political ones whats really interesting is the way the egyptians are taking the lead in this the link to this latest incident this big one that were discussing today is that well were used to talking about these things in sinai here is a hugely damaging incident taking place somewhere quite different. And you know possibly far harder to deal with given given its location and i also would agree with what i think timothy said the proximity relative proximity to the libyan borders is an important part of the security dimension of this story was not long ago there was a report of Egyptian Security forces stopping a convoy of arms coming across that border so i think we need perhaps to look east west im sorry to understand the the logistics of this sort of incident so to me if he. What are we seeing this insurgency is becoming increasingly spent and we seeing it have a different parts of the country whats going to push this insurgency away i mean obviously egypts going to have to deal with its own political problems before can look at the the wider picture here. With respect to. More effective counterinsurgency strategy as of course it would be theres a lot of people who would like to see to move towards a better practices in terms of how its dealing with an insurgency in terms of its relationship with people in sinai moving away from a very forceful and scorched earth type approach to something that they feel is a ive been treated like second class citizens that theyve been really clamp down by the government. Absolutely in there and the right in feeling that way their access to necessary infrastructure such as schools and medical facilities has been very limited more over there and he better when that can even successfully get a national id card for a while so i mean theres a lot of problems in terms of their treatment and the way the state receives them thats kind of a fifth column in some ways which obviously makes it easier to recruit. Or at least deter them from cooperating with state security so moving away from that and building a cop its very important i think that the mass incarceration that we see in egypt makes prisons a breeding ground for extremism and makes it easy for more militant prisoners to radicalize others who who just have grievances against the state. And theres been reports of that from from one political prisoner whos been released on. He said he witnessed that firsthand while he was being held in prison and so certainly we have to look at the the mass incarceration problem the political trials and the kind of broad sense of injustice that political and i know that and ive made what about sisi turning a page not im just wondering if hes if hes capable of doing that being a military mad i mean hes decimated the Muslim Brotherhood there is no opposition hes got control of the media the judiciary why doesnt he include groups now like the Muslim Brotherhood why doesnt he try a different tactic because whats happening now is not with king. Thats a very good question i think hes not doing that because nothing is forcing him to do that theres no incentive for him to do that he believes and think this is a traditional way of thinking for the egyptian stayed that its a strong good that it can win the fight that it can win it militarily its very important to note this and i think the point to that but let me just what he said. It is very important that even though all these terrorist violent insurgent attacks whatever you want to call them even though their own look similar they are filled by different underlying dynamics so in sinai the grievances of the people there. Just explains is fueling the insurgency there the oppression of the of the civilian opposition including many members of the muslim brothers and how they get radicalized in prison is another dynamic that is fueling the insurgency and the sense of anger in the country they cannot make conditions and the political stall mates with the muslim brothers is another underlying dynamic that is fueling the insurgency and anger so the Egyptian Government will have to move and have to address all these different grievances and all these Different Levels and lets not even forget theres even a social and underlying social dynamic if we include the attacks against the Coptic Christians in the equation so its a big task facing the egyptian regime and i think if they are not somehow. Not judged in a friendly way by their friends from abroad to start tackling very seriously all these conditions all these underlying conditions that are fueling anger in the streets whether this anger is seen in a violent. Way or see in the way people talk and communicate theyre not a fairly modern regime third inning now i mean since he clearly sees that theres a problem a growing problem in the country and hes got to do something about it what do you think he is capable of doing what you think hes allowed to do. Well i agree with that and i think that the issue here is that counterterrorism is something that governments do when faced with Security Problems but in egypt its clearly not enough. Whether sisi knows that im not quite sure i think that governments which britain the United States which i can all these the need to fight terrorism should be far clearer in the need to address the underlying causes and now you can have a very long discussion about the relationship between underlying causes and actions but there is no going back to the events of four years ago the summer of twenty thirteen where do you support the Muslim Brotherhood or not the the action that took place then with you call it a coup or a counter revolution doesnt really matter clearly created conditions for radicalization of people whose results were seeing know so counterterrorism strategy is one thing but its not enough and you know friends of egypt need to be i think more vocal in their insistence on that point and do what they can to persuade. Sisi to see the broader picture not to show it to leave it they have to go on the run out of time so i stand by that terrorism thank you for those last words thanks as well to timothy called us and made a dolly and thank you too for watching you can see inside story again any time by visiting our web site aljazeera dot com and for the discussion you can go to our Facebook Page at facebook dot com for slash a. J. And side story can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a. J. Incised mine is at jane i mean the rest of the team thanks george. Short films of hope and inspiration. A series of short personal stories that highlight the human triumph against the odds. 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