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Imran Akram, IA Cement, reviews the impact of COVID-19 on the global cement sector and provides a forecast for recovery in 2021.
In 2020 global cement demand is expected to decline by more than 2% (and by more than 5% excluding China). The coronavirus led to a deep recession during Q2, followed by a generally strong recovery in Q3 as lockdowns were lifted. All regions apart from China are expected to decline, with the worst impact felt in India, North Africa, Western Europe and parts of the Far East.
In 2021 IA Cement predicts a modest recovery with cement demand increasing 3 – 4%. Key drivers include vaccine rollouts, strong housing demand, and an increase in the number of working days. Second and third wave lockdowns are proving to be relatively short, with construction markets typically remaining open for business. South Asia and those countries that had the most stringent lockdowns in 2020 are expected to record the strongest growth. The bright spots of this year – Brazil and Saudi Arabia – are likely to see growth rates moderating.