Transcripts For 1TV Informatsionnii 20240703

In the middle east, in europe, in america is watching it and naturally, in russia, and not to mention the muslim world, everyone is watching this , given the huge number of interests, conflicts, contradictions, and so on, that have been in this very difficult region of the world for many decades, or even centuries, and however, this agenda has changed like this, news since saturday, when the Hamas Movement undertook a daring and , apparently, very wellprepared operation against israel, and managed to break through the border that israel had established in this place on the territory that it controls, i say this specifically in such formulations, because especially in these places it is very. Its difficult to talk about your own territory, not on your own territory, everything here is very arbitrary with borders from the point of view of international law, for reasons that are understandable to many, well, for those who dont understand, maybe theres a little in the program this will be discussed in more detail, but such an operation was undertaken, accompanied along the way by completely monstrous manifestations of some kind of, well, i dont even know how to define this . Not even medieval, but some kind of animal, absolutely animal cruelty, but a huge number of absolutely peaceful people were killed , having nothing to do with the war or military service, people who, apparently, were killed only in order to be killed and taken away as hostages , in order to hijack as hostages, and a lot from this was filmed on video by the same people , if i may say so, who did it, i will not show any of these videos, because when such cruel treatment is carried out with prisoners, with tank crews and so on, well, this is war, and lets lets be honest, israel has not been at war for the first year and has not been at war for ten years, and the people who are wearing military uniforms, who have weapons in their hands and who have a tank, this is a different story, i will not show the story of what they do to civilians. Who are bullied, who are bullied they kill, who are hijacked, well, literally how, i dont know how, i dont even know what to compare this with , why i wont show it, because i see that that wave of emotional, lets say , tension, emotional anger, which is on this stage was born, she has reasons, but on the other hand, these are very narrow reasons that do not cover the entire complexity of this story. Its terrible that these people were killed, its terrible that others are being bullied, but no less terrible is what started yesterday and continues today, when who came to her senses after this shock, and something completely unthinkable was allowed to happen, by the way, it was allowed, and the problem of the israeli army, the Israeli Special services, and when Development Began in the gas sector, which continues. To this day and continues, well, very large so to speak, with land mines, and your emotional state changes again, and of course , it is completely impossible to measure this, and what is more terrible, more terrible this or more terrible that, because all of this is terrible, so i wrote my first one this morning post on your telegram channel, and therefore, well. Who for some reason is interested in the emotional attitude, you can read it, i dont want to go into it, im saying this to the fact that the emotional here, no matter how terrible both of them are, it. Should be put aside, the one who appeals to emotions, showing some, as many wrote to me , well, you see what they do, but at exactly the same time other people who, say, represent the other side, they sent exactly these assholes, well, you see what they do, my friends, thats one of the important features this story, lets be honest, and i understand that a person who tries to remain objective in the middle, he usually gets left and right, but lets be honest, in this story, which even goes back decades even in recent history, horrors are being done by both sides, who is right and who is wrong is absolutely and so to speak categorically impossible to establish, because there is no one hundred percent right and one hundred percent wrong, no, its all terrible, and the roots of this story go deep, its clear, and i wrote about it today, that these are these atrocities completely barbaric, which was carried out by militants who invaded the territory controlled by israel, who killed these people who had gathered there for a party and dragged someone away, and so on, their atrocity is not at all justified by dozens of resolutions of the United Nations, in which, if anyone does not know , since 1967, israel, the state of israel has been called a country that occupies foreign territories, from 67 onwards, as they say, everywhere in the eightieth year, he continues contact israel, including regarding the gas sector, talking about the long term occupation of arab territories, and so on and so forth, and such resolutions, i wont even give you all of them, you can, as they say, to whom. Its interesting to look and in the ninth year, then in the sixteenth year, then in the nineteenth year, and here it is said about jerusalem and it is said about the west bank of the jordan river and about the gas sector and so on and so forth, again the presence of this difficult problem that israel does not he is very eager to decide, saying that this is a matter of his safety and he will do as he sees absolutely necessary. And does not explain, just as the atrocity of these monsters, who take hostages and torture them on camera, kill them, and so on, does not justify bombing residential areas, where it is quite obvious that hundreds of people are dying under the rubble, hundreds of people have already died, among whom, of course, do not justify this chain, no , nothing justifies anything, so once again i emphasize that in this story there is nothing that some are great and do things the right way, others are not great and do everything wrong. No, unfortunately, there are well done people in this story, and the fact that it continues to develop with such bloody methods is now bloody on both sides, both on the part of those who carried out this. Operation and on the part of those who are now behind takes revenge on her and says that we will take revenge much harsher , much harsher, and i dont know, even i dont want to imagine what its much harsher, looking at the footage of yesterday and today are working on the gas sector, and saying that every stone will be turned over , that the middle east will be changed, but in the middle east there are many. People who also can answer a lot of things now, looking at these personnel, that is, again, you see, this chain is terrible, this endless circle of hatred, place for something, place after place for something and so on, it does not break, so we need, i think, to talk about then, having tried to put this human, understandable emotional. Like this everyone asks, who are you for . Yes, i am for everyone and no one , i am for unarmed civilians on both sides, and i am against some completely foreign cruelty on both sides, in my opinion, it is necessary to discuss why what happened happened, why it happened now, who could it be . At hand from the point of view of some further development, does not mean that the one who will take advantage of the escalation is the person who is its cause, the organizer, but there will certainly already be quite a lot of people who want to take advantage of the escalation, we will talk about this today in the program, when i talk about the consequences, i am not talking only about the consequences for this region, but for the consequences much wider, because i end where i started, interests are concentrated here without involving all the largest regional and world players, and if it seems to you that china is far from here and they dont care. They care more than many, because they are building their own train track, and oil is important to them, and so on and so forth, im not talking about the americans, israel is one of theirs main allies, im not talking about the russian federation, and of course im not talking about the islamic world, the muslim world either, and the development of events here, the escalation of one scale or another, or if it is possible to contain the spread of another. Conflict, this is all a question that without prejudice concerns everyone, no matter where they live , i repeat, no matter who emotionally, which side, with what long set of convincing arguments takes in this historical tragic confrontation, i think that this is where we will begin to sort it out here in the studio with my experts, right after a short advertisement on the first channel. 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Then choose 12. 12 per annum on a deposit in sberbank with the highest rate. Open a deposit with the best Interest Rate in a couple of minutes in the banks mobile application. Its more profitable with beres prime. Time will tell the program, we continue to work live. And now, live, we will try to understand what, in general, everyone who more or less follows the news agenda is trying to figure out and what they are discussing. And already. The third day about why what happened here happened, and why were the hamas militants able to break through from here on a fairly wide front, quite far inland, up to 30 km . Why was the israeli army unable to do anything to counter this . , now if it were the israelis , then they would be, but probably the american Intelligence Services, the British Intelligence services, and well , a huge number of services, of which, of course, traditionally there are always many in this region, and the most important thing is that everyone is discussing, well strictly speaking, does this have some kind of military purpose, as such, which is unlikely to be a goal, and if not military, then what other goals does this outwardly look like a very. Well prepared military operation have . Well, you see, the situation here is really such that, uh, even on the third day its still premature to talk about goals, ill explain why, yeah, you need to understand the following things, firstly, ill immediately answer the question, how did this happen . It so happened that in 2006 i was in lebanon during that war, which could be called a prologue to the current one, then, when did israel. In principle , i now have such a huge deja vu, because i remember exactly the same sharp statements by the then israeli leaders that we would destroy, that the world had never seen such a reaction before, that we would sort of restore order, but then it worked out the first time the system failed, that is , the tsakhal was unable to fulfill any of israels tasks, moreover, it suffered quite significant losses and interference. The mediators at that time actually saved israel from admitting that the military operation had failed, and then for the first time probably showed a completely new type, as if to say, of the fight against Israeli Intelligence, i just remember very well , because i saw it all with my own eyes, when, with the help of iran, with the help of syria, very powerful counterintelligence preparations were carried out, during which almost all of the agents were exposed, but they didnt touch them, they didnt touch them, until the moment they started, until the fighting began, then over the course of two days more than 300 people were shot, indicatively in front of everyone, and israel found himself without eyes, you see, militarytechnical intelligence doesnt play a big role there now, because firstly, its a very dense agglomeration, you wont see very much there, and in this case im talking about gaza, you wont see very much there and you wont you will hear a lot there, because firstly, most people there already have an excellent education, they are excellent. By means of, say, camouflage, technology, and whatever you want, and the fact that israel could not reveal this situation is not surprising to me personally, i understand why, that is you can kick. Israeli intelligence, but i repeat, this means that they were simply deprived at one moment, but listen, hundreds and thousands of missiles that flew towards israel, overloading this very iron dome, and these are tens and hundreds of people involved in that in order to deliver it somewhere, store it somewhere, launch it at some point, this, this suggests that the Palestinian Intelligence services are now built on different principles, i repeat, the same thing that hezbollah did years ago, rather the handwriting is the same, most likely people, who, as it were, advised and did the same things, yeah, and actually, and we can roughly guess what kind of people these are, in fact, this is what actually deprived israel of their eyes, so they did not see this preparation, because of course, it had been going on for years, you have to understand that this accumulated there for a week, not two, and of course, the people who prepared this operation understood perfectly well who they would be against. Look, you know, uh, all this is very interesting, and i think we wont be discussing this for another day, and for the third day theyll be discussing it all, how did it happen, how did the intelligence oversleep, or were they outplayed by the counterintelligence that someone prepared, there are a huge number of questions here, okay, the intelligence overslept, but there are a huge number of perplexed voices in israel itself, but how is this their system there with wall, warning systems, all these cameras and so on, and the people who served, they say, well, this is not at all, that is, a feeling. Of some kind of complete surreal, that everyone overslept, of course everyone is discussing this, this is an important point , but nevertheless, this is still what is located inside what happened there yesterday during the day, somewhere here, but it seems to me that it is more important, now moving forward, to discuss, okay, counterintelligence outplayed there, something happened with sahal and so on, but the question about what the purpose of this is, is it a military purpose and then what is it, is it an informational purpose then what is it, is it a political purpose and what is it, that is , roughly speaking, we all understand perfectly well that the purpose of this military operation, there could not have been a military takeover there, i dont know there, i ll try to formulate, these days i have a question about the fact that it was all prepared so well, as you described, and it can be discussed for a long time, so that in your opinion, which in my opinion, i have been constantly these days. I formulate the answer for myself today as follows in fact, gaza and hamas are in a severe political impasse, yeah, they are isolated, they have been in severe isolation for almost 15 years, moreover , there is a wellknown confrontation between the greater palestine, that is palestinian authority, where the administration is in very strict conflict with gas and, accordingly, with hamas, and this further aggravates this crisis. In my opinion, for hamas the time has simply come when they decided to bet on everything, that is, either we blow up this whole situation, and thereby, as it were, take ourselves out of this complete spiral of extinction, the key phrase, you her just said were blowing up this whole situation, decipher it, if you proceed from this logic, what does it mean were blowing up this whole situation, that is, then you re talking about some kind of conscious militaryinformational psychologist whose goal how to blow up the situation . Well, in this case, its just the beginning of this new war, its already in principle now, its still early, until the other participants have entered, perhaps, perhaps it wont, so, then it will still be a conflict over gas, moreover, a conflict then it will be very tragic, because of course, then the gas left alone with israel, in this case it will be turned into ashes. Your version is that hamass goal is to somehow blow up the situation so that they wont be alone one with israel, and for it to be so powerful, at least i see at least some logic in this, because i personally havent been able to build any other logic yet, i repeat, the gas problem has been in recent years, i in general, i also worked quite closely with people from there, i know that indeed this absolute isolation. Everyone understands this very well, that is, underground tunnels, there are hundreds, if not thousands of them, the entire underground gas system, it is actually built on the fact that that they seem to have connections with egypt, at the same time, official egypt is all diligent, well, to some extent they even put pressure, because you need to understand that, say , the government and. And the leadership of egypt today is secular, it is in a very severe conflict with the islamists, and hamas until recently time was very tough islamist, and hamas, excuse me, at one time managed to fight, after all, against syria, against. In syria later, when they began to fall under the influence of iran, when iran dealt with part of the hamas leadership, so to speak, which was completely like that jihadist, the situation has changed, this, by the way, is very important, this clarified that many hamas militants managed to fight in syria against assad, because we have many who, well, for some reason, well, out of principle against israel , they are very ardent. These guys, and i tell them all well, i understand that these guys, they have their reasons, but many of these guys are not at all the ones you think about, its not like they are fighters there against everything bad for everything good, its, well, many of them are just stupid terrorists, its a very important question that you started saying, that this is an attempt to break through some kind of isolation, yes, let s talk about the root cause, i, i, when i was talking about these, you just answered, by the way, my question , partly, which i had since the seventh, i couldnt understand why those, for example, fighters who pull israelis out of tanks, for example, well, yes, there they kill them, of course, and all this is also disgusting, but very many of them are in these videos themselves, they have blurred faces, and those who mock civilian nanohostages, they dont hide their faces, its clear that these are, as it were, probably qualified fighters, otherwise this is more of a crowd, why am i saying this, i had the feeling that with this wave of consciousness, some kind of completely bestial terror, but are deprived of the opportunity not to respond in full, roughly speaking, by erasing it into dust, starting to erase it into dust, this is the connection to the perspective of hezbola, the connection of other. Muslim countries and so on, this is what you are talking about, as i understand it. , here we need to understand one more thing, which we are missing a little bit, not that we are missing it, we simply dont see it, if it werent for our own agenda, if it werent for the war that is going on in ukraine, then many events that went practically unnoticed would have exploded in the world a long time ago if the situation were to happen, it would become clear to everyone that this conflict arose for a reason, well, ill just give an example, year after year, 100, 247 palestinians died in the gas area alone, yeah. Died at the hands of the palestinians, that is , the situation was heating up all the time; moreover, there was no name for the operation that is being carried out by hamas, let me remind you, this is a storm, well, you can call it the alyaks flood, this is a reference to the events of april of this year, when the Israeli Special forces cleaned out extremely harshly, only this, and many years, of course, but this year there was a special story, when the they harshly cleared the mosque on, again, a sacred holiday, in general they didnt understand it, yes, we can say that this is of course the starting point, at least the name sends it there, but everyone understands that it alone would not have caused it in this case, that is, i repeat, lack of reaction to all this from the International Community, lack of general interest in what is happening, again , we didnt notice this on our agenda at all, but all this led once again to the situation that the gas eventually heated up and exploded, understandable, but the reason why it warmed up and warmed up for a long time, including what you said about and these shots, i remember how in the spring of twentyone, when once again in ramadan they cleaned out alyakssa very harshly, i was then standing here in this the studio itself, i said that i dont understand why is this done so emphatically harshly in ramadan and also in alaska, because sooner or later this. Will have consequences and of course you are right, partly this is a consequence, but still the question is the following, i dont know, according to the sweet or not, but this is a very important question, roughly speaking, any operation has a goal , well, a tactical one, to break through a barrier, capture populated areas, etc. , etc. , and there is another goal, well such a conditionally strategic, informational, psychological. Political and so on, as a specialist in the region, you understand that the purpose of all this was what it was initially, well, obviously not in order to break through the fence, in order to break through the fence, to seize police stations there, military units and so on, this is only the beginning, this is the basis, and the goal, well, having studied many, having studied many events of this kind, many terrorist attacks, and more than once conversations even with those who. Organized similar operations in the past, i everything also with those who fought, with those who are organized, i communicated with all parties, i came to the conclusion that sometimes. Those strategic goals that you are talking about simply did not exist, this also happened, the degree of desperation of people sometimes reaches such that the very rational goals that you are talking about may not exist at all, but the organizers, the organizers, probably after all, there were some plans, but it is not a fact that these plans could, nevertheless, they are planning it, well, what were the goals of the event of september 11, 2001, were they achieved, by Osama Binladen, by others terrorists, who, and assuming that it was Osama Binladen himself, and not someone from binladen himself, given that it began after september 11, whether these goals were achieved, the most important goal of someone who commits such acts is to get caught. To heaven, because this still needs to be considered from the point of view of believing people, who, yes, have their own faith, this faith allows them to perform such acts too, yes, im not talking about islam as such, im talking about the emotional charge of these people are so hyper, hyper emotionality, you know, elena vladimirovna, the fact is that i understand what you are talking about about this radical. Extremist factor, but when vlad said that 67 people died in israel during this period, probably , one of the 247 palestinians, you see, in order to do this, and become a martyr in this sense, i dont have a deep command of theology, i dont know whether everything in this case becomes a martyr or not, thats not the point, for this it is not necessary to plan such an operation, for this it is not necessary to collect such an amount. You just dont sit down and fly, you have to study, prepare, pull up some, some drones from which they threw drones, knocked out these tanks, how many rpgs are there, you know, its not like those who just wants to commit something, as you say, a terrorist attack and this is a very complicated prepared operation, which is just like that, well, without any goals, at least the organizers have a complex degree of coordination, here i agree, a high degree of coordination and a high degree, bypassing those same tracking devices, intelligence elements, this is a huge job, as for technical things, there are rockets, hang gliders, paragliders, well, i once talked with the person who organized the first operation on hang gliders in 1987, he was already from the old days at that time, this is ahmad jibril, the head of the palestinian Popular Liberation front of the general command, he told me in detail, he sat how they came up with this, carried out this operation, on the lebaneseisraeli border, the palestinians arrived from lebanese territory, reached their goals , were killed there, those who arrived on paragliders also died, but it was all done very simply, from a material point of view, from an organizational point of view, it was all done very simply, so i i would nt exaggerate here. As for farreaching goals, recently the farright Israeli Government has begun to talk openly about the fact that there will be no state of palestine, an independent state of palestine, it was so a decision was made, almost officially, the americans supported it, that this whole idea , which arose back in 1947 and even earlier, but the resolution, the general assembly, the organization of the united. Nations was back in 1947, and the creation of two side by side states, jewish and arab, it is no longer suitable, and everything will be decided within the framework of one state, sometimes even some experts on the middle east pushed through these ideas when communicating with the americans, but its good that our Foreign Ministry stood firm and said that there are no such ideas about one state it will not be possible to implement it, neither for political reasons, but nevertheless, nevertheless , the americans, together with the israelis, have now begun to push this idea, the explosion of this situation now, it has led to the fact that there is no talk, normal, reasonable about there cannot be one state, these events have shown that this is impossible, what other ways to solve this problem should be sought . Few people know, the International Community is at a loss, but you were looking for rational goals, one of the rational goals is to show that this will not happen, and then we need to still watch. Depending on the situation, if suddenly there is a ground operation and lebanon rocks, then this already means another goal, far reaching plans, by the way, by the way, about lebanon, a lot, starting from the first day, they talked about, well, not so much about lebanon itself, how much about hezbollah, which is located, in its case, on the territory of lebanon, lebanon itself, through the mouth of its Prime Minister said that well , they clearly dont really want to get involved in all this, so to speak, they dont want to be participants in the conflict between israel and hamas, well this lebanon, im not sure that hezbollah is strongly guided, as it were, by the opinion of the lebanese leadership, it is not at all guided by it, and hezbollah declared, starting from the first day, that if there is a powerful israeli operation entering gaza, then hezbollah will not remain on the sidelines, and hezbollah, and hezbollah we understand who it is, hezbollah also does not exist on its own. By itself, hezbal is no longer homemade weapons , they are already different, and those specialists that vlad is talking about, who train their counterintelligence officers and their specialists and so on, we also understand everything perfectly well from what country, and when hezbollah says that it will not remain in the country, it says this not only in its own words, and there is also iran somewhere in the mind, but, but with all this, they have already gone today, information has gone out that against the background israel is already carrying out gas bombings on lebanese territory, and moreover, information has already circulated that in a conversation with biden, netanyahu said that he was forced to conduct a ground operation in gas, and this is a way out of exactly the same possible way as would be the domino principle, when this whole chain can it might start to collapse. What is not the goal for the same thing, ill blurt out what vlad is talking about, well, here, i think, we coincide, in many ways, we can also add to the goals, for example, to collapse the netanyahu government, which is far right in israel and not ready to negotiate with the same palestinians, i will clarify right away that after all, so that there are no generalizations, the Palestinian Intelligence services do not control the radical group hamas at all, the palestinian territories, they are torn apart, the national administration, of which the Palestinian Intelligence services are part, it is not in control of this situation, they are not sitting in the gaza sector, on the west bank of the jordan river, this is also one of the problems, but while they are saying that the israelis missed here, because all their efforts were mainly on the west bank, they they waited there, and therefore let them through here, and so on, maybe, but they have been refusing for a long time to negotiate with the Palestinian National authority, also a deadlock that formed, especially after netanyahu came to power again and so on, here on the west bank of the jordan river, the president is famous there we have mahmoud abbas, who, well, it seemed like he was even going to visit moscow in november, may still visit, but hes already old, yeah, and if someday some changes happen on the west bank of the jordan river, look at the map, yes, this. Is already a much larger territory, albeit not as dense, then then this solid green this color is no longer there, four years ago erdogan showed it at the United Nations and talked about it, well, he showed it this dynamic of how, speaking about two states, how it everything that is called was conceived and how it changed over the years, in fact, he talks about it there, that this is the fortyseventh year, the sixtyseventh year. This is what is now, well, actually, we can simply display this block by itself, probably on the screen, and that is, this is, as it were, officially everything, that is, this is what actually remains instead of this piece here, uh, real time, well, im not talking about historical justice now, im getting at the fact that everything we see now is still a prologue, this is still prologue, yes, yes, oh, oh, thats just about the fact that this is still a prologue and about who sets what tasks in this prologue, and just set or sets now, when what happened happened, i im not saying that everyone who is now starting to try to extract some kind of game from this is a person who had something to do with this, theres the same linsigram, whom well talk about now, he may not have had a clue until the sixth that something could happen there, and many others, but just about what the goal of the operation, and to what extent could it be the goal, as you say, to blow up the whole situation or, well, to start this domino principle . Today i wrote about this on my telegram channel, and after reading an article in the New York Times, which is called, well, in these 3 days, askomin has already been stuffed. Its like, it means that the unexpected attack by hamas raises a lot of questions about the failure of the israeli Intelligence Services and so on, but whats interesting is that they quote the New York Times in this article, which means theres no one, yes, the hamas attack raises questions regarding the failure of Israeli Intelligence, they quote a certain mackenzie, which means, as they write there, a general of the us marine corps, who at one time was a highranking us military commander in the middle east. And who just writes that in fact , with this attack, hamas shook and destroyed the very concept of israeli deterrence, shook it to such an extent, this is about the question of why there is so much ostentatious cruelty, why is this , well, on camera, cruelty, hostagetaking, and so on and so on the like, and this one general, he writes that since hamas has posed this very challenge, this is a system of deterrence, a concept. Can be restored only with the use of prohibitive shocking force and harshness, everything is just beginning, he writes, and the article came out before the news came out that netanyahu told biden that he was now forced to do this, at that time it was already coming in many media comparisons with the american pearl harbor, but we all understand what pearl harball was, pearl harbor was a situation in which roosevelt, who wanted to enter the war, American Society did not allow him to do this, and after pearl harbor happened, it turned out that there were no options not to enter the war, then any further, so to speak, these same ones, i have no im not making analogies, uh, although there are a lot of questions about why pearl harbor happened the way it did, but well, this is like a separate topic, for those who are interested, read it and wrote it, so thats the question, its all just beginning, he writes mackenzie, writes about what it means that hamas is allegedly behind iran, and whats surprising, whats surprising, whats surprising is that in the wall street journal article, which writes that according to highranking members, hamas, it means iran was there, and so on and so forth, which means its already a journalist, who wrote this, it turns out, was fired from reuters almost 15 years ago due to the fact that a lot of things were invented, but, but for lies, but the fact is that the woll street journal, and not someone publishes this, on background that blinken is very careful and says, well, i dont know, lets listen to how he says it blinken, listen, hamas would not exist in the form it does today without the support it has received from iran over the years. In this particular case, we have not yet seen evidence that iran ordered this attack. Or stood behind it, but ill say it again, iran and hamas, of course, have a longstanding relationship. And here the point is not even that qatar is more likely to be behind hamas than iran, and iran is more likely to be behind hezbollah, but thats not even the point, how careful blinken is, i wrote in myself when he said this that i think the pentagon will still be careful, and the wall street journal is publishing, and now listen to lince graham, who, of course, you and i discussed this by the way, that linsim is a sort of highflying weather vane, which is macain 2. 0, 2. 0, but, oleg, agree that if mccain says what we are about to hear, he catches a certain wind, but that means there is also a wind that wants that, well, like that foam that is whipping graham, listen, according to graham, i would also say, drink less needed, i ve been on the phone all day with the middle east and told our allies and people with ties to eran, what im going to do, im going to say to iran, that if hezbollah attacks israel, then we will come after you, the iranians, coordinate the efforts of the us and israel to take iran out of the oil business by destroying its oil refineries. Iran has four large oil refineries. They are our goals. If hezbollah attacks israel, i will make iran pay a heavy price. I can see Lynsey Graham coming for the iranians, forcing them pay a high price, but thats not the point. The fact is that since he says this, it means there is this trend, which, against the backdrop of what happened, perhaps, having learned about it at the same time as we all, begin to build exactly the same schemes that we are talking about, that this was done with such harshness that israel cannot, well, it cannot but respond with maximum harshness, if it responds with maximum harshness, it begins a ground operation, perhaps hezbollah will not be able to stay away, if hezbollah does not remain aside, that means other islamic ones are involved. Iran, and then it goes on and on, the only question is that the wind that catches your nose may not be blowing from the place where it is blowing, for example, now, not in general, but now to the United States, which so, in my opinion, they groan and dont understand where the exit from the stage is, they are always looking for it and dont know where to exit the stage , how much does it really benefit them now, well, indeed, one of it can be called rational, can be called a conspiracy version, which. Can explain the blowing of the wind, this is the saudiisraeli rapprochement, but we havent talked about it yet today, because everything seems to be moving towards peace, moving towards peace, and biden should go there, blinken should go there , so biden is already with trump it didnt work out to get the peace prize, yes, but biden would have been given it for sure, no, it didnt go towards peace, but at least now it didnt go towards peace, but it could be sold as if it was going towards peace. Just last week, what did salevan say . Its been so quiet in the middle east for the past 20 years, as they werent with us, and so on, no, well, thats a different matter, but it could be sold, it can be sold, and accordingly, firstly, yes, if the saudiisraeli peace, yes, palestine loses a significant part of Financial Support , anyone, hamas, the west bank, anyone, the militancy of palestine and palestinian groups will be crushed by the arabs themselves, then how the saudiisraeli truce will affect iran is difficult to say, since now we have the fact of a saudiiranian truce, yes, which we have not had since january 1 and the saudis and iran will our good friends in brix, and they will shake each others hands there, and there seem to be two options either invite israel to brix in 23 years, or blow it up. Everything is in ruins, so there are many forks here, everyone has their own, but if you allow me, ill say a few words about my perception, yes, since i am this, and before that, who were you talking about, about the general, i said rational, you always professor, you start with your own, but not yours in general, but im trying to answer your question, and then i go to my homework, and my homework consists of tom, but for each of us, yes, what if before february 24 last year we would have looked at it as, well, a detached war, and even then, well , geopoliticians would have reasoned there, yes, but now we are looking at it, its probably difficult to say, enriched but with experience yes, one and a half years of its own military conflict, and there are many parallels here; much deeper understanding; sometimes the understanding is more bitter; yes, again , this phrase that israel slept about everything, and the Israeli Intelligence and military, and so on, that there really is nothing wrong with this perhaps so, well perhaps so, yes, in my opinion, most likely so, and this is to some extent, well, lets remember our first six months, yes, we are like loyal citizens, none of us doubted that everything was going according to plan , as we were told, but a significant part of the patriotic segment of our society had questions about a certain arrogance, and now, well, its a bitter comparison, but we werent the only ones who were arrogant, you see, they said, heres israel, here the power of israel is always ready, and israel turned out to be arrogant, i also read a lot about this, but its a kind of psychological compensation that you see, it didnt work out for them, that means were not the only ones who have something, you know, were not the only ones, you know, to be honest, for me. This is generally some kind of strange, to be honest, very logic, even i, out of respect for your preparation , well, finish it, but not now there is another one, but not for gods sake, im just saying that its so strange, its like throwing some kind of beads like that, that we didnt succeed, now its easier for us, because they also go back and forth, but ill tell you this, without going too far, well, listen, people mobilized 300,000 people in 2 days, and we have 3000 for the upper lars in 2 days. Mobilized 300,000 people in 2 days, and this is probably something that, uh, on the other hand, you can compare, here they have it, here we have it, and then it begins that they can drive through the country in 4 hours by car, they have a complete military conscription, they all have uniforms at home and so on, it seems to me that these parallels with the northern military district certainly exist, they seem to me to be completely in another, is that now we are discussing whether biden has enough strength for two such areas , and when you say that we would not have noticed before, before no longer exists, because after a year and a half of conflict on the territory of the former ukraine, we saw and went through everything together with our nonpartners. Yes, which, and this conflict, here, an outbreak, happened now in a situation where we know, well , what can be and what cannot be, this is completely different, this has never happened before, so that this happened against the backdrop of essentially enough an active war of hostilities in europe, where missiles and longrange weapons are already hitting the territory of the russian federation, and so on. In american doctrines it is clearly stated that america should be able to wage two large Regional Military conflicts, in different parts of the globe, now a test is coming, and in both cases america is not waging these conflicts with its own hands, which. Intelligence, if everything doesnt calm down quickly here, were getting a second big military conflict for the United States, with whom, no matter, no matter, the american the dominance is that america is the only country in the world, it is implied, that can fight two major wars at the same time. Its true, thats the point, that dominance is no longer there , in my opinion, on the contrary, it shows that america has taken on a burden that it cannot carry any longer, lets see, well see, no, thats what were talking about , that they now need such a check, given what elena says to vladimirny, or, on the contrary, now, if possible, how to extinguish this whole matter, so as not to embarrass myself, in bidens place, i quickly extinguished it, with a feeling of victory for israel, so because. Its clear that the proisrael lobby in the states is mostly for the republicans, the elections are again not far away and so on, but one more thing, if you allow me, i still want to say my own, by the way, what would you say in this situation, if you were biden, that you should have told netanyahu, listen, you were whipped out in front of the whole country, generally disgraced, humiliated, well , listen, something is so hard for me, i have elections, give me Something Like this, what would you tell him, thats why, thats why it cant help but work here, this is exactly what. I started the program with, this deepest feeling of mutual hatred, yes, what do they say, these are not people, human animals, human animals and no one there lies, no human rights activists, everything is taken for granted, but on both sides, hatred and cruelty kill civilians, and here again i look through the prism of our conflict, yes, when the cruelty of our opponents is not perceived in the same way by the americans, when their. They dont respond to them, and here i am constantly i criticize this phrase, we are not like that, yes, we are not takushiks, yes, but here, we all must admit that such a feeling of hatred for the enemy, for ukraine, for ukrainians, does not exist in russian society, and has not arisen in a year and a half, i dont know whether its fortunately or unfortunately, because our conflict with ukreikh has a completely different nature than the middle eastern conflict between, firstly , two religions, between thousands of years of claims to one territory and so on, thats why in this sense in my opinion they are incomparable, incomparable, thats what you spoke about mutual hatred, which vlad and i discussed, and i said , i have the feeling that in this, in this operation , there was a very big stake in the fact that after it was carried out, it would be impossible not to respond. In full, and as we see from netanyahus words, they answer, it seems to me that here is what is why everyone is watching this with such alarm, why many have really become Renowned Experts in illustration in 3 days, and i i say this without irony, because unlike the previous numerous outbreaks, now there is a feeling, what if there is a fire here, tiao on gas, but tiao on gas, tactical on gas, not in general , this is the question can something broader than regional flare up here, we are now right after a short advertisement lets discuss, dont switch gears, what plans bill gates has for ukraine, russia and im not afraid of this word for all of humanity. Of course, maleria is transmitted by mosquitoes, i brought some here so you can experience it for yourself. Theres a whole factory there. America to collect russian dna. Artificial intelligence can be used to design new diseases. They created. 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Straightaway i take it because of the case, helping to reduce a sore throat, for a sore throat angidak, angidak spray first aid for a sore throat, you are approved, find out your Credit Rating by comparison, we will help you choose a loan taking into account your credit history, workload payments, if its a loan, then compare it on the website in the application, time will tell the program , we continue to work live, we continue to discuss live, in fact, and with all the complex intertwining of middle eastern politics, how much aggravation and escalation can now occur here theoretically and potentially cause some broader escalation in the region beyond the region. Everyone with whom we talked here, you one way or another emphasized the cruelty and intransigence that has existed there for a very long time, and which, judging by many signs, especially plays a big role in this outbreak, even in a certain sense of the word, somehow, well, its cultivated, or something, yes, these are those who were shot, cars, and people, killed and hostages. Who were taken away and the children were taken away there are hostages with women doing these action movies, im just saying, i think its impossible to show all this, on the other hand , already when we started broadcasting, netanyahu published these shots on his twitter, these are the shots, and which we are here we are spinning, as they say, we were twisting, while we were talking, this is from the twitter of the Prime Minister of israel. With the inscription we started, this is what i started with, this is just another confirmation, he is the Prime Minister, he is not there, not a blogger, not someone, that is, he believes that this is how it is now it must work for a certain purpose, just as those, well, savages who did it believed, this is a dangerous story, could this boiling oil overflow somewhere behind. Under the boiler, for to be honest, its beyond me, not even that netanyahu did this, but he must somehow cheer up his own, the Israeli Defense minister, who, speaking about the blockade of gases, electricity, water, food, and so on, that has already begun, says next text, please, i ordered a complete siege of the gas sector, there there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting against human animals and acting accordingly. And i understand that he is now addressing these words to the israeli military, who have been in shock for three days, who are mourning the dead, who are mourning the hostages taken, and so on and so forth. But all arabs hear him. Everyone hears him, and he gives them, well, in general, if you like, another. Another flag of hatred that they can wave, what are the chances in your opinion that the escalation here could spill out somewhere beyond limits of the region, taking into account many interests. Well, here i want to add, remind another person who said approximately the same thing, his last name is poroshenko , their children will go to our basements, that is , go to school, and their children will sit in the basement, we will have light, and they will not have light, all this has already been said, it always sounds, in fairness to poroshenko. Who hasnt taken hundreds of hostages, im just saying that the very logic of the development of the conflict, its always about the same, in my opinion, now everything will be decided by the nearest 48 hours, yeah, why, because in the next 48 hours the main large participants will determine their position, i in this case, i in this case say, first of all, for example, in a completely strange way now only those who have lined up can shoot, how to say , communication iran, saudi arabia, because if suddenly they are now able to find a common position on this situation, then it will of course be decisive in general in relation to what is happening. There will certainly be a role for egypt, because egypt is the only border for gas, and in fact, egypts position will be determined by a lot, naturally, in this case it will be determined by jordan, naturally by the usa, naturally, in this case a lot will depend on us, because we are the force that. Which has good connections with those with others, traditionally the truth about turkey, by the way, youre not me yet , for some reason i think that not without the turks here i definitely wanted to say definitely, of course , the turks will play a very big role here, so in the near future i think that in 48 hours they will determine where will go further, but still the main point this will be the south of lebanon, that is, the south of lebanon will determine if the next 48 hours after the start, again, if tel aviv really decides to strictly strip the gas, the south of lebanon will not explode, in the same way, but the south of lebanon this is hezbollah, hezbollah is iran , then lets agree, that is, by and large, it largely depends on what position iran will now take there, if now everything is reduced to absolute, you know, how any formula is reduced to simple ones, as it were such mathematical operations, then it is necessary understand that of all the participants who are now. Everyone has their own interest , it is obvious that netanyahu and the Israeli Government need exemplary revenge, moreover, they understand perfectly well that they will not be able to erase gaza with a map, but you need a mixture that would cause horror. They will bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, it is obvious that it is impossible to decide on a ground operation without bombing, because they understand perfectly well that if they did not succeed in the sixth year in the south of lebanon, then now flattery, in general, how the israelis are clearing out towns liberated from hamas, if they go into dense urban areas with such a degree of preparation, im afraid we understand very well that what the people there are now reporting is like this. Its a little funny, because 500 targets were hit there, so many bombs were dropped, any person who was in gas understands perfectly well that there is underground gas, all, you know, everything that is underground, i think that during these three days, the number of military personnel, or more precisely military or militants, whatever you call them, its generally tiny, it died from air strikes in the city, so the israelis understand very well that going there, this flattery is very dangerous, so there is propaganda that netanyahu is knocking with his fist. And there is a reality that will obviously be that the United States is in no way interested in a long war, because they dont need it, but they cant, we havent mentioned it yet, but they cant in this case not allow their ally to kind of enjoy place, so the question already arises within a certain boundary, which they will try to keep, naturally, as i already said, iran, you and i talked, will be determined, but iran has just begun to emerge from sanctions, iran has just begun, into a completely different situation, and for it now it is also plunging into this conflict, but not very much, then are you rather in favor of the fact that the chances are high enough that all this will not spill out, i think that most likely, at a certain stage , the systems of containment will begin to turn on, i understand, your forecast, because why am i asking this, because that i know that many who watch tv also read with one eye telegram, of course, a lot has already appeared in telegrams, a lot of common sense reasoning has appeared, but a lot of them are preapocalyptic, like guys , we are witnessing, we are witnessing the possible outbreak of a world war, and so on and so forth, your forecast, how likely is this, and if yes, in connection with what, what could be triggers, i just returned from the region last night and talked with arabs and turks, and naturally i asked people about the events, including colleagues, political scientists and. Fairly educated what worries people in other areas, what worries or worries, is alarming that no matter what Muslim Country we take, be it turkey, iran or some arab country, Public Opinion is very sympathetic to the palestinians, despite all these the atrocities that you showed and so on, i just showed this atrocity, i tried not to show it, so that well. Which we talked about, yes, which many saw, these sympathies, they cant be avoided, and israel will have to respond, he is already answering, and it wont be possible to answer softly either, and this at a minimum will lead to one already familiar result, but only at a higher level of tension and escalation, at a minimum there will be terrorist attacks, both in europe and in tel aviv, in jerusalem, there will be outbreaks of violence in egypt, but im sorry, again for cynicism, this is generally a relatively familiar background when talking about the middle east problem, after all, when they say that this could go somewhere further about escalation, everyone means the involvement of some powerful regional states, there, well, today everyone saw these shots of some kind of american Aircraft Carrier going there. Floating and so on, after all, everyone is asking about whether some new big war could break out there, well, for starters , about familiarity, it seems familiar, but everything is on the rise, because every week i see several times the Representative Office of the United Nations in israel, they are sending reports on what happened there over the last week, according to these reports, this is what vlad was talking about, that but this is still a growing vector between israel and the palestinians, what you are talking about, will there be a big war, the danger of this in this region in the near future will always be, yeah, it will always be, of course, first of all this is the reaction of the lebanese hazbalah, it is possible, it is possible, the further the operation goes in the gas sector, the tougher it is, the greater this probability, by all indications, tehran wants to avoid this, the United States, this is important. To avoid this, it is also not beneficial for russia to escalate to such a degree, by and large tel aviv also wants to avoid a big hitch now with iran, but this is such a region where a wave of events can spin very quickly, respectively, the same question do you see here the beginnings of the possibility of a large, sort of semiglobal escalation and, accordingly , how it is questionable how this could affect the conflict on the territory of the former ukraine, given the looming or it doesnt pull two, but here if israel wins quickly, yes, if there is only one gas left, since lebanon, well, we showed it, and the statement of its Prime Minister, if we draw parallels, lebanon clearly follows the georgian line, yes, we dont want to be second front, please, we already got ours once, no need, they can be understood, they can be understood, any world is better, any. And if israel blows the gas into dust quickly enough and quickly leaves almost 3 million people, its impossible somehow, or at least nips the attacks in the bud in the short term, but in any case, this gives netanyahu the opportunity to declare victories whatever he wants, that is, if israel excuse me that i m interrupting, im just afraid that these shots, which probably psychologically somehow compensate someone from those who lost their loved ones in israel, i think that, as the swan once said , its hard to think of a better advertisement for joining the ranks of fighters, hamas, than these shots that they publish, to the question, there is no, well, peace, peace and we will no longer get the restoration of the status quo, and accordingly , victorious israel, quickly victorious. For israel, one option, which, how much do you bet on this option, for quick victorious israel, considering what they showed in these 3 days, considering that these are urban battles, in my opinion, its not the densest, about 30 percent, well, you im just a fan of israel, so, no, no, im not a fan of israel, for me the most interesting question , i already said in the previous part, will the tiao on gas be tactical, israeli, no, well, you seriously admit such a possibility, well, im not so. Said that we will change the middle east for 50 years, he said that it is in ruins , he does not say anything that we will change it with nuclear weapons, it seems to me that this is some kind of thing, well this, this is something suspended and unknown, which is most interesting, but even if without this, victorious israel, then israel begins to take revenge on his main offender, well , at least psychologically, this is understandable iran, although there is a direct connection between. Nothing addressed to iran, nothing, even against the emotional understandable background in which he and his defense minister are located, even they are nothing that the defense minister said, this certainly requires an official investigation and this will be shown internationally, but even he says nothing about iran. But, well, accordingly, victorious iran, israel, what it will do is the same thing that it has already done, yes, terrorist attacks in iran, murders of Iranian Nuclear physicists, terrorist attacks on Iranian Nuclear facilities, and thereby will, on the one hand, take revenge on iran, on the other hand, drag iran into a new spiral of military confrontation, iran wants to get out, and with all its might, and if there is no quick victorious israel , what im betting on. But if i put 30 on this one, then on the rest its probably 70, otherwise there will be a long struggle, which israel will obviously be stronger, but will not be able to win completely, and the question is who is stronger, were talking about a possible principle, no, stronger, stronger gases, that is, me, but if this is a long and not initially unwinnable war for israel, we are talking about the fact that it may no longer be only gas, again returning to these. A shot of gas, well, if , i heard everything correctly, that is, if israel you say can fix everyone and deal with the gas sector in one person and no one will interfere, then what are the chances of this, and there are chances, so i say, 30 of these chances because what i heard from all of us is that iran does not want to be drawn into the war, yes, he has groped for peace in saudi arabia, sanctions are slowly being lifted from him, but what the hell does he need. Again, this is all, this is what vlad said when he spoke about a possible target, as you said, to blow up, to blow up this whole structure, lets agree that iran has influence on hezbollah, although our iranian friends officially deny it and also have reasons, and accordingly, lebanon itself does not want, accordingly, it is clear that there are some excesses on the northern border of israel anyway there will be excesses, there are already excesses, but they must be contained hezbalot of the second front iran is able, even if the gas is in ruins, since the ruin will be sunni, and not that in my opinion, we will all be very lucky if the joint, so to speak, World Community in quotes, is able to hold back. Israels revenge in within certain limits, then we will all be lucky, that is, they will give him a little, then they will say, well, its time to finish, and if not, then, and if you are not lucky, then it will really begin to wrap around even those who dont want to, uhhuh, well you said that the befurcation point will be after about 48 hours, within 48, we watch, we observe, advertising on the first channel. Our quarry is the deepest in the world, in general everything in yakutia is big, and for what purpose are you from moscow, transport the stones to the 11 46 site, the ships will stand and go on course, maybe well intercept more, but they return, through bad weather. It wont even be six months, who are you . I will appear, what happened to your wife . Sergei bezrukov in the serial film by valery todorovsky. Mayor, if this is what i think, then this is a quarantine for you and me. 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Our ratification under the ban on Testing Nuclear weapons, today vyacheslav volodin, the speaker of the state duma, said that such an instruction was given to the committee on International Affairs of the state duma, within 10 days they will consider and we discussed everything here, they will hear, they will not hear, and so the secretary of the organization of the Nuclear Test Ban treaty has already expressed concern that russia is taking steps to revoke the treaty, asked for a meeting with moscow, well, that is. We heard, this is to talk about oh, no one will notice, when necessary, they notice, we are monitoring this situation, we are watching the heir doll program tutti on the first channel, not about pilots, as you probably thought, our todays program thought, in front of us is a private jet called lolia express, what . Youve already begun to guess what were talking about,