Detailed description is Scotland voted NO in 2014, we support the democratic choice of the Scottish people! We believe in British Unity! https://twitter.com/BritainUnited1 . Do Not Break Our Unity: Please bookmark and press the LIKE button to subscribe.. . Follow us on twitter - https://twitter.com/BritainUnited1. . Follow our Blog - http://britainunited2.blogspot.co.uk/. . Note: Please be respectful on this page, do not use racist language or profanity, do not "troll" - a troll is someone who purposefully posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community. A list of rules can be found in the notes section.. . “Do Not Break Our Unity” is one of the larger pro-Union Facebook pages.. . The Unity Campaign is a grass roots movement campaigning against the division of Britain and against Scottish separation from the United Kingdom. We are a collection of activists and page owners who have pooled together in a “Britain United” campaign to save and promote the Union. We are proud of our British, Scottish, English, Welsh and Irish heritage, and believe the Union has made us stronger. Our supporters are drawn from all races, religions, and political denominations: the only qualifier is their love for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.. . Britain has a role to play in creating a just and stable world for all of us to live in, and we believe the world would be a poorer place without it. Our global position is strong: we’re considered by China as overall the second strongest nation in the world as determined by their Comprehensive National Power metric. We have a world class military which is considered by many to be the amongst the best trained, best equipped, and battle-hardened armed forces in the world. We have a permanent seat of the UN Security Council, G7, G8 and G20, and a special relationship with the United States which makes Britain America’s closest ally.. . These links are cemented by a British member sitting on the US National Security Council and the intelligences agencies of Britain, America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand sharing intelligence and assets, as per the United Kingdom United States of America Agreement (UKUSA). Britain is also at the centre of the Commonwealth and has major influence within that community of nations. The UK has top table seats on every major international organisation such as the EU, NATO, IMF, WTO, World Bank, and the Bank of International Settlements to name but a few.. . We believe that separation is not the key to a brighter future, but will seriously damage the future prospects and stability of not just Scotland, but England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Mann, Channel Islands and our overseas territories. In short, it will have far-reaching consequences for the future of these British Isles and those far beyond!. . We would like to reach supporters across the political spectrum to unite in opposition to Salmond’s attempt to break up and destroy the United Kingdom and with it divide this small island. Parochial nationalism will see a Britain divided by international borders and the deep seated hatred many nationalists harbour towards our commonalities.. . In this regard we need your help. Promote this page to your friends and acquaintances, share the news feeds on your page. It is time to be united and work together in defence of Britain regardless of what political allegiance you have. Be respectful to all: this country belongs to all of us, so let’s work together to save it for our children and theirs.. . Join us today, and help keep Britain strong and United. . . The admin team can be contacted via a private message on the page (should be somewhere on the top right of your screen). Alternatively you can email us at [email protected].. . Those that are part of the Twitter community can join follow us here - @BritainUnited1.. . For some background information on separation, please see the following links from The Economist: . . http://www.economist.com/node/21552564. . http://www.economist.com/node/21552572. . http://www.economist.com/node/21543408. . http://www.economist.com/node/182380. . http://www.economist.com/node/182393. . http://calumjc.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/is-scotland-better-off-in-or-out-of-uk.html. . http://calumjc.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/independent-scotland-and-its-credit.html. . http://calumjc.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/independent-scotland-and-north-sea-oil.html. . The below information was last up-dated on 31st August 2012. . **Some facts and evidence for you all**. . Before you read on, just keep in the back of your mind how complicated separation would be, as well as how long it would take for it to actually be implemented. The divorce of the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1992 required 31 treaties and over 2,000 legal agreements. That was bundled through by the two communities’ respective elites and the international complexity was then much less. The Quebec case offers little comfort, as the Canadian Supreme Court has laid down far-reaching principles which made Quebec independence much more problematic.. . First of it is worth saying that nobody here believes that Scotland cannot survive as an independent country. Countries of its size (5.2m people) can easily go it alone (eg Denmark). We are a relatively rich country. Income per capita for the UK is £21,000, which is not much more than the Scottish equivalent - £20,200. GDP in 2010 was £116bn. Unionists should not be ashmaed to demonstrate the fact that Scotland can survive as an independent country. The question is not about whether or not Scotland can go it alone, but it is about whether Scotland is better in the UK or out of the UK. Based on the evidence, there is no doubt in our minds that Scotland is better off WITHIN the UK. . . European Union. . 1) Scotland would be liable for almost €10 billion (£8.4bn) of the eurozone bail-out fund if it were to be allowed into the EU as an independent country, according to a study from the Commons Library. . . 2) Scotland could end up paying more per head to the EU because if it has to negotiate new membership it may lose out on the UK rebate won by Margaret Thatcher.. . 3) The UK has 29 votes in the European Council (may fall to 27 if Scotland was separated). With only seven votes, Scotland would have less voting power that Greece.. . 4) A separate Scotland may have to re-apply for EU membership, which contradicts the SNP's assertion that Scotland would definitely retain EU membership and Sterling as its currency. Maros Sefcovic, the Commissioner for Inter-Institutional Relations and Administration, said he was unable to rule on a separate Scotland’s membership “given that the terms and result of any future referendum are unknown”. The other EU states would make the decision, but this could not be done for a few years until the exact terms of separation are negotiated. However, the weight of legal opinion states that Scotland would indeed need to reapply (see below), further casting doubt on the SNP's position. In summary, there is an immense amount of uncertainity over whether a separate Scotland would obtain EU membership.. . 5) Under current rules a separate Scotland seeking to apply for EU membership would have no choice but to join the Euro.. . 6) Jo Murkens, a constitutional law expert at the London School of Economics in January 2012:. . "The position is that if Scotland became independent, England, Wales and Northern Ireland would continue as the rest of the United Kingdom. It would be the continuing state. That is the position of international law in practise. Scotland would be a new state and as a new state would have to apply for EU membership.". . 7) Prof Robert Hazell, Director of the Constitution Unit at University College London:. . "Scotland would have to re-apply for membership of the EU. Renewed membership is not guaranteed. The reaction to Kosovo's claim to independence suggests that EU member states like Spain might block Scotland's application, for fear of encouraging similar claims from the Basque country and Catalonia.". . 8) Dr Joe Borg, EU Fisheries Commissioner:. . "Legally speaking, the continuation of the membership would remain with the rest of the UK - less Scotland. And, therefore, Scotland, as a newly independent state, would have to apply for membership.". . 9) Dr Lorand Bartels, lecturer in international economic law at Edinburgh University:. . "Both as a matter of international law and as a matter of EU law, Scotland would have to negotiate its accession to the EU as a new member state.". . 10) Dr Matthew Happold, then Research Officer at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law, in a 1999 paper:. . "Were Scotland to gain independence, it would be the rump UK, not Scotland, that would inherit membership of the EU. Scotland’s subsequent route to EU membership could well be a tortuous one. The SNP’s use of the phrase Independence in Europe seeks to persuade the Scottish electorate that it can have its cake and eat it, that Scotland can have both the benefits of independence and the security of membership of the European Union. However, the real situation is that an independent Scotland might end up with all the insecurities of independence and none of the benefits of EU membership.". . 11) Dr Jo Murkens, a constitutional law expert at the London School of Economics, in a 2001 paper:. . "If Scotland were to apply to become a member timing would matter because the EU is in a process of enlargement and the terms that an independent Scotland could negotiate would differ if the EU had 28 rather than the current 15 Member States. The process of negotiation is unlikely to be easy even for Scotland. Evidence from other candidate countries suggests that the EU uses its pre-accession bargaining strength to extract the maximum concessions from acceding parties. Member States are obviously aware that once candidates have joined, existing Member States will never have such an advantage again.". . 12) Hamish Macdonell, writing in the Scotsman in 2007 said:. . "The Commission's representative in Scotland, Neil Mitchison, confirmed that Scotland would not be granted automatic entry into the EU, as the Nationalists insist. The situation is unprecedented and therefore negotiations would be needed. Things would have to be discussed and negotiated.". . 13) Jim Murphy, then Minister of State for Europe, in 2007 said:. . "Despite what the SNP claims, the weight of legal opinion suggests that, far from automatic membership, an independent Scotland would find itself outside the EU and needing to apply to regain membership. It means Scotland joining the queue of countries for entry which could cause not just delays, but massive uncertainty.". . 14) Historian Michael Fry in 2009:. . "The prevailing opinion in Brussels, as I understand it, is that the continuing UK would inherit membership of the EU on the present basis. Scotland would not be treated as a successor country, and so would have to renegotiate its membership.". . 15) Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, a cross-bench peer, former British Ambassador to the United States, Britain’s permanent representative to the European Union, Head of the British Diplomatic Service and Secretary-General of the European Convention, in 2008:. . "If Scotland was to become independent, it would have to leave the EU and reapply to get back in. People in Scotland love to believe it isn’t true, but getting back in would not be easy. I’m not saying it wouldn’t happen, but it would not be easy. Scotland would have to overcome the objections of countries like Spain which doesn’t want Catalonia to go the same way. In all probability, the Scots would get in but they would be out for quite a time before they got back.". . 16) “When a part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that state, e.g. because that territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory.”. . http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getAllAnswers.do?reference=P-2004-0524&language=RO. . 17) Jo Murkens, senior lecturer in the law department at the London School of Economic and Political Science, says in the New York Times that a separate Scotland would have to reapply for E.U. membership:. . “The U.K. minus Scotland would be the continuing state and would continue with its current treaty obligations. Scotland would have to apply as a new applicant state. It is 100 percent clear under E.U. law, although the Scottish nationalists have never accepted fully this. Changes to arrangements within the E.U require a treaty change and the fact of having a new member state requires a treaty amendment. Accession to the E.U. requires unanimity among the existing member states." . . National Defence. . 1) New Defence Secretary Philip Hammond gave the first clear statement from a UK government minister that an independent Scotland would lose out on defence contracts that underpin the shipbuilding industry in Fife and on the Clyde. He says:. . “It is unlikely HM Forces would wish to use facilities in a fully independent Scotland in the way they would wish to use facilities within the United Kingdom.”. . 2) Under the 1998 Scotland Act, defence is reserved to Westminister. However, the reservation does not mean that Scotland is not involved in the business of defence. The substantial defence presence in Scotland brings significant mutual benefits. There are some 12,000 service personnel and 5,900 MOD civilians in. Scotland. It is home to three major air bases, the nuclear deterrent (and, in the future, all RN submarines), and, for the army, a divisional headquarters and the Royal Regiment of Scotland. Moreover, despite the policy of defence being a reserved matter, much of the legislative and regulatory framework within which defence is managed is now the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament.. . 3) By around 2017 three of the nuclear powered Trafalgar Class SSN attack submarines will be transferred from HMNB Devonport to Clyde.. . 4) There are around 4,200 naval service personnel based in Scotland. HMNB Clyde is the largest single site employer in Scotland, with a combined workforce of around 6,500, and spends £250m in Scotland each year. It is the home of the UK’s nuclear deterrent.. . 5) There are almost 400 individual MoD sites in Scotland and at 124,000 hectares, they account for 33 per cent of the entire MoD land holdings.. . 6) The 4,500 strong workforce at shipyards in Glasgow and Rosyth are sustained by MOD work.. . 7) MOD employs people in 30 out of 32 local authorities throughout Scotland.. . 8) Professor Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal United Services Institute think-tank believes London would have to ask the government of a newly independent Scotland to continue maintaining the deterrent at Faslane and Coulport for up to a decade. He says:. . “The new Scottish state would be under pressure to agree to this because it would need London’s goodwill to help it gain membership of the European Union and other organisations,” he said.. . 9) Officials warn that London would demand billions in compensation from Edinburgh to transfer Britain’s nuclear deterrent to England.. . 10) Scotland has several important industry partners such as BAE Systems. The workforce of 3,000 people has built seven warships since 2004, and contributed £392m to the Scottish Economy in 2007.. . 11) The former head of the Royal Navy, Admiral Lord West, has warned that shipyards on the Clyde and at Rosyth would be sunk by Scottish independence. He said:. . “If Scotland became completely independent, there is no way that what would be left of the UK would build its warships in another country. If I was on the board of BAE, I would be questioning whether there should be more investment there until we know if Scotland is going to become a separate country. A safer bet would seem to be Portsmouth and Barrow. Similarly, I can’t see Rosyth getting any more Royal Navy work in an independent Scotland. Work would be carried out in the country that is paying for it.”. . General Economy. . 1)Scotland does receive a net 'subsidy' from the Treasury. In 2009-10 spending per person in Scotland was £11,370, versus £10,320 for the UK (10% higher). What about revenues? Scottish total non-oil tax revenues coming in at £42.7 billion in 2009-10, or £8,221 per head, which compares with total public expenditure attributable to Scotland of £59.2 billion, or £11,370 per head. On this basis, Scotland 'got' £16.5bn more in UK public spending in 2009-10 than it contributed to total UK revenues - or a 'subsidy' of around £3,150 per head. It should be noted, however, that the entire UK population is receiving a 'subsidy' of around £2,000 per head - it is what we talk about when we say a "budget deficit".. . 2) There is an argument that the separists use, which is this. If you say that 90% of the oil revenues are Scottish, as the SNP would consider geographically appropriate, then you get Scotland 'putting in' £48.1bn in tax revenues in 2009-10, not £42.7bn. Put it another way: Scotland provided 9.4% of total UK revenues and got 'only' 9.2% of UK public spending. The things to mention here are as follows: the extra 0.2% that Scotland put in is based on the generous assumption of Scotland receiving all the geographical oil shares (briefly discussed below); even assuming an extra 0,2% input, you have to ask yourself if this justifies losing out on the benefits that Scotland receives from being part of the UK?. . 3) The Scottish and UK economies have followed a similar path over recent years. Although Scotland had a shallower recession, it has also had a more feeble recovery, leaving both economies producing almost exactly 4% less than they did in the fourth quarter of 2007. Scotland's economy is also more sluggish than the UK – growing by just 1.6 percentage points in the second quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2011, compared with 2.7 percentage points in the UK. It is grossly misleading for the separatists to suggest Scotland has a much stronger economy than the UK as a whole.. . 4) Public spending is 55% of GDP in Scotland. The SNP have made generous fiscal promises (eg “free tuition fees and prescriptions). Can this be maintained in a separate Scotland? Additionally, Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, pointed out the Scottish population was ageing more quickly than the rest of the UK population, which would put increasing pressure on public finances (eg throguh state pensions). He says:. . “Even if you have a happy year one, year 10 may look more difficult.". . Scotland's annual public sector pension cost is around £2.5 billion. A key question is if separation happened, would the UK government or Scottish government pay this cost? Additionally, would pensions be indexed to RPI or CPI. We find it disturbing that for a party whose only goal is separation, there is no answer to this question.. . The General Register Office for Scotland states that:. . "Scotland's population is projected to increase by 10 per cent between 2010 and 2035, however this increase is not spread evenly across all age groups of the population … the population aged under 60 is projected to remain fairly constant whilst the number of older people is projected to increase significantly.". . And the NIESR states:. . "the Scottish population is expected to age more rapidly than the rest of the UK. Pensions and other age-related public spending will have to be supported by a shrinking working age population.". . As a consequence of this population trend the SNP have a more open immigration policy than the UK government. There are two fundamental questions here: what would be the immigration policy of a separate Scotland; and if this was fundamentally different to the UK would there be border controls at the Scotland-England border?. . 5) Approximately £62 billion is managed of Scottish GDP is managed by the state. This is at the higher end of the scale for developed nations.. . 6) A study in 2010 by the Hunter Centre for Entrepreneurship at Strathclyde University found that Scotland creates fewer new entrepreneurs than elsewhere in the world. Whilst this report does not criticise Scots or their ability to start business ventures, it simply indicates that at present Scotland is unlikely to be able to improve its financial position or establish an economy with entrepreneurship playing a key role. This is likely to be increased if Scotland separated from the UK due to the many complications separation would bring.. . 7) Because Scotland’s economy is already a relatively small and open economy, separating from the UK would increase exposure to exogenous economic shocks (i.e. shocks that are caused by factors outside of Scotland’s control). As part of the UK, Scotland benefits from being able to share resources and enjoy fiscal transfers if industry is performing poorly (for whatever reason). We reiterate that "small" does not mean Scotland cannot go it alone - we would argue it can. . . We are simply pointing out that a smaller and more open economy makes Scotland's future prosperity more vulnerable to factors outwith its control. As part of the UK Scotland's future prosperity is much safer.. . For those Keynesians who believe are more socialist Scottish government would increase spending in a downturn, please read a study by Ilzetzki et al (2010), which shows that the more open an economy is, the smaller the response it shows to a rise in government spending. By separating from the UK, the effectiveness of government spending in Scotland would be diminished. As the Economist newspaper as argued, to sustain their ideal social model Scots are best voting to stay in the UK.. . North Sea Oil. . 1) UK oil tax revenues are projected to fall to 0.2% of UK GDP by 2022/23, from 0.7% now.. . 2) According to the Financial Times:. . "The SNP likes to draw an east-west line through Berwick on Tweed, which puts about 90% of the reserves in Scotland. However, the line of the existing boundary follows the Tweed in a north-easterly direction. Project it into the North Sea, and Scotland’s share drops below 60%.". . 3) North Sea oil accounts for 13% of Scotland's output. Anne Sibert, professor of economics at Birkbeck, University of London, argues that small size and concentration in certain sectors can be problematic. She says:. . “A big country has some insurance if one industry or one area of the country runs into problems, you can have transfers from the other areas. But if you mainly produce one thing, if you’re located in one small place, you don’t have so much insurance.”. . 4) Separation would involve risks for oil companies, particularly over taxation. Under current rules, for example, they can offset exploration costs in one part of the North Sea against taxes on their producing fields in other parts. Such an option could fall away if the English and Scottish sectors were divided. Alex Kemp, professor of petroleum economics at Aberdeen university business school says:. . “There’s a risk of investment uncertainty, especially about the taxation and licensing regime. A Scottish government would be proportionately more dependent on oil revenues than a UK one, possibly increasing the incentive to tax the sector more during a budget squeeze.". . 5) Production of North Sea oil has been falling since 1999. Last year activity fell to its lowest level since the 1960s. How would this impact on the economy? Merrill Lynch economist Nick Bate says:. . "Production in the North Sea peaked in 1999, and has fallen by around a cumulative 50 per cent since then. The long-term structural decline in North Sea production would impart a significant drag on real GDP growth in Scotland.". . 6) Even with the generous assumption that a separate Scotland receives all the North Sea oil and gas revenues that the SNP say they have, then Scotland would have operated a 10.6% budget deficit in 2009-10, little different from the 11.1% UK equivalent. Moreover, the Scottish budget - even including EVERY penny of oil and gas revenues - has run a £41 billion deficit over the past 30 years.. . 7) The volatility of the oil price would have a severe impact on spending plans, as actual revenues can differ a lot from projected revenues. Consider 2008 - estimated oil revenues were £12.9bn but in 2009 they were £6.9bn, making financial planning very challenging.. . 8) Leading oil analyst Chris Skrebowski of the Energy Institute argues that a separate Scotland would be a net importer of oil:. . “Alex Salmond's predictions are simply wrong. Even with optimistic assumptions about future North Sea oil production, and even if Scotland was allocated all of that production, an independent Scotland would be likely to be a net importer of oil by 2015 or 2016.". . 9) The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook (2008):. . “Observed decline rates vary markedly by region; they are lowest in the Middle East and highest in the North Sea.”. . Monetary Policy. . 1) The SNP have stated that a separate Scotland would initially keep the pound, and then later hold a referendum on joining the Euro. Either way, this ties Scotland to a foreign institutions' monetary policy. Either way, a separate Scotland has NO influence over the money supply, interest rates, etc.. . 2) Even if Scotland were to come to some sort of arrangement with the UK Treasury and the Bank of England about monetary policy then you basically set one set of rules for another. Scottish independence would be curtailed in the likely event that England insisted on some say on Holyrood’s budgetary policy – just as Greek and Portuguese budgets are now tightly constrained under eurozone fiscal rules. . . 3) Roger Bootle, Managing Director of Capital Economics, has described such arrangements (ie monetary union with no fiscal and political union) as "halfway houses".. . 4) Lose “lender of last resort” facilities, which has arguably saved the UK economy from a depression. Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist at the IMF, has said as much.. . 5) Due to inflation, Jamaica’s primary currency is the US Dollar – yet to imply the Jamaican government has any sway over the Department of the Treasury in America is, thankfully, nothing but the punch line of a bad joke for already wary investors.. . 6) As John Maynard Keynes said:. "He who controls the currency controls the country.". . Banking Bailouts. . 1) RBS and HBOS had a combined balance sheet of 30X Scottish GDP at the time of the financial crisis. The rescue of the Scottish banks has cost British taxpayers an estimated £2,000 per household. If Scotland was independent, the figure could have been closer to £13,000. It rationale to assume that a separate Scotland would have been unable to afford the bailout without IMF support.. . 2) Salmond and Swinney encouraged the RBS takeover of ABN Amro and were supportive of the UK government bailouts.. . 3) RBS currently has £187 billion of toxic assets. What share of this burden would a separate Scotland have? It is a Scottish bank so you tell me. A significant proprtion of the Lloyds Banking Group is also headquartered in Scotland.. . 4) Bank equity purchases and additional support from the government have in essence been funded by government issued debt instruments. The interest payments are around £5 billion per year. Thus, Scottish taxpayers, pro rata, would therefore be liable for around £370 million to £500 million annually. If Scotland separated from the UK, and assuming that this cost is funded on a pro-rate basis, then it means there is additional risk for Scotland. Say Scotland is in a recession and tax revenues are low. The cost still has to be met but there cannot be transfers from rUK to Scotland to fund these costs. It would thus need to be met by further borrowing from the government (the same of course can be said for rUK. So there is a benefit of sharing our resources clearly).. . Renewable Energy. . 1) Institute of Mechanical Engineers (IME) and Citigroup have suggested that the renewable energy target is not likely to be met.. . 2) Citigroup said hitting the 100% target would need about £46bn of subsidy in total, an annual subsidy of £4bn and a doubling of green generating capacity in Scotland alone to 26Gw. An independent Scotland would put that subsidy "at grave risk".. . 3) Citigroup says the plan for a renewable energy revolution would increase household power bills by £875.. . 4) IME said the Scottish government had failed to provide stable sources of renewable energy, such as biomass or geothermal power, to give baseload electricity supply when wind farms or solar energy failed to provide enough electricity during unfavourable weather. Scotland would instead have to import power from England or abroad.. . 5) The Scottish Chambers of Commerce have warned relying on renewable energy could see consumer bills double.. . Nordic Model. . 1) Sweden VAT = 25%. . 2) Sweden VAT on food = 12%. . 3) Sweden Corporation Tax = 26%. . 4) Income tax can reach up to 60%. . 5) Norway VAT = 25%. . 6) Norway VAT on food = 14%. . 7) Norway Corporation Tax = 28%. . 8) UK VAT = 20%. . 9) Food exempt from VAT in the UK. . 10) UK Corporation Tax = 23%. . 11) Norway has much higher tax than Britain (44% of GDP against our 38%) and a cost of living about 25% higher than ours. . . 12) The CIA World Factbook estimates that Britain has under 3 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Norway has almost double that: just under 6 billion. . . https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html. . 13) Norwegian oil production is about 75% higher than the UK’s. Norway still has sizeable oil exports whereas Britain is now a net importer. Norwegian government revenues from oil and gas are about 2.3 times ours.. . 14) The SNP dream of a sovereign wealth fund. How practical is this? Well, Andrew Reid, Aberdeen-based managing director of energy consultant Douglas-Westwood argues that it is too late to do this:. . "It’s a bit too late in the day to set up a fund. The majority of wealth from the North Sea has been exploited. OK, there is a lot still to go for in the North Sea in the future, but the tax levels will have to go down to take into account increasing costs and to try and slow declining production. Also, it will be pretty hard to set up a fund just now in this time of recession.". . 15) Oil revenues can be used only once. You can’t spend them to offset an expenditure black hole and invest them in an oil fund at the same time. An oil fund works on the basis of investing money after all public spending is paid. But even on the most generous assessment, Scotland's public finances exhibit a structural deficit, having not been in surplus since 1980-81. Even adding all tax revenues from oil and gas production for ALL of the UK reduces but does not eliminate this deficit over time. If we include ALL UK oil and gas revenues, then the Scottish budget has not been in surplus since 1989-90. . . Different Tax Powers. . 1) The Institue of Chartered Accountants of Scotland said there would be limited scope for a rates cut in Scotland, if public services were to be maintained.. . 2) The Scotland Office estimate that the tax compliance costs for Scottish businesses could double to more than £1 billion if a separate Scottish tax system was introduced.. . 3) As part of the unified UK tax system, there is no need for Scottish businesses, individuals or HMRC to divide tax liability between Scotland and the rest of the UK in relation to any UK taxes. For example, companies such as retailers have multiple purchasing, processing and selling across both jurisdictions. Thus, in separate tax systems, they would need to comply with two different sets of rules for each tax collected and remitted to each administration; and establish the proportions of profits liable for Corporation Tax in each jurisdiction. Potentially, the compliance burden for cross border businesses would be duplicated for each tax.. . 4) HMRC’s annual administrative costs are £4 billion. It is not clear if the ongoing operational costs of a separate system would be radically less than these running costs. . . 5) Thus, the case for not having a differential tax system is not about restricting the powers of the Scottish parliament, but rather about what makes economic sense for Scottish businesses across the country.. . Credit Rating. . 1) Jim Leaviss, a leading fund manager questions whether a newly independent Scotland would retain the UK’s prized AAA credit rating.. . 2) A 1% rise in the interest rate adds £1,000 onto each household mortgage.. . 3) Martin Wolf at the Financial Times agrees with the analysis.. . 4) Centre for Public Policy for Regions, an economic think-tank, has also questioned this.. . 5) A report from the National Institue of Economic and Social research report provides evidence that a separate Scotland would likely to run a substantial trade deficit, even assuming the "geographical" share of North Sea oil and gas revenues. It then goes on to say:. . “Countries with external deficits and without central bank powers pay a premium on their government debt,” . . 6) With a fiscal deficit in 2009/10 of 17% of GDP (10.6% if you include the "geographical" share of oil and gas revenues), Scotland would attract a low credit rating. Rather than Ireland, which was the Scots’ model for years, a better comparison might be with Slovakia. It is the same size, rated A plus/A1, and has 10-year bond yields of 4.5% against the UK’s 2%. If you refer to point 2, you will notice that this adds over £2,000 onto the average household mortgage.. . 7) The three leading credit rating agencies – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch – indicated to the Financial Times that an independent Scotland would not automatically inherit the UK’s top-notch rating. Scotland could expect to receive an investment grade rating, but some notches below triple A (refer to point 5).. . 8) Moody’s sovereign bond rating methodology states that countries would be marked down if they did not have a long record. . . “Immature economic and political institutions increase the risk of unpredictable behaviour in times of stress, inviting negative credit implications.". . 9) Furthermore, Moody's methodology says that countries more vulnerable to “sudden changes to the economy” could expect lower ratings. This concern would apply to a separate Scotland, given that 13% of its output comes from volatile North Sea oil revenues. . . **Some benefits of the union**. . 1) EU membership. . Scotland's prosperity depends on the European single market which opens up opportunities to secure future inward investment. Moreover, Scotland's membership of the EU has brought in billions of pounds in subsidies and grants over the last 30 years - a financial windfall which would be threatened by any break to that membership. It is impossible to say exactly how much Scotland receives every year, due to the EU's complicated accounting system. However, a hundred of the richest farmers in Scotland have received over £115 million in EU-backed government subsidies over the last few years. Europe, including the rest of the UK, represents by far the largest trading partner for Scottish business. That business is protected by European laws and agreements allowing the free movement of workers and capital. Any break in that link between Scotland and the EU would cause massive uncertainty in the financial markets and upheaval in the thriving Scottish financial-services market.. . On the point of the EU, a report produced by the Commons Library states:. . "If an independent Scotland lost its EU membership [which is what the report argues], it would also lose the current (euro) opt-outs [that the UK has] unless member states agreed it could keep them. This would make Scotland liable for loans to euro members, such as Greece and Italy, with 'sovereign debt problems' and ensure it pays more into the EU budget than it receives in grants and Common Agricultural Policy payments." It also goes on to say that without the UK’s rebate, citizens in a separate Scotland would each pay £92 per year more into the EU than the country received.. . 2) AAA credit rating, thereby resulting in lower mortgage rates and borrowing rates. A separate Scotland could not enjoy a AAA rating and so would have a higher cost of borrowing. Martin Wolf argues:. . "To avoid the risk [of higher borrowing costs], it would need to lower its debts quite rapidly. This would require even greater austerity than in the UK as a whole. Given its close ties to the rest of the UK, Scotland could not get away with taxing corporations or skilled people more heavily than its neighbour. So the bulk of this extra austerity would surely fall on public spending.". . 3) The sharing of risks and assets. . . The classic example of risks is of course the bailouts of RBS and HBOS. During the financial crisis, the combined balance sheets of RBS and HBOS were over 20 times the size of Scottish GDP. The subsequent bailouts amounted to at least 35% of Scottish GDP: £45bn for RBS and an initial £8bn for HBOS before it was taken over by Lloyds. So it is seems questionable whether an independent Scotland could have survived the financial crisis without any assistance from the UK, IMF or EU. The bailouts of RBS and HBOS cost the UK taxpayer around £2,000 per head - the figure would have been around £13,000 if Scotland was separate. Gordon Brown has stated that the union made the rescue of the banks possible without the need for external assistance.. . A good example of sharing assests is oil. The Commission on Scottish Devolution reported that:. . “We were struck by the volatility of these tax receipts both historically and in forecasts. These revenues, which have varied between £1 billion and £12 billion in cash terms in the past couple of decades, are heavily correlated to the oil price, which is not influenced by either the UK or Scottish Governments, but rather fluctuates markedly because oil is a globally traded. commodity. Scotland has over the years contributed these [oil] revenues into a general UK pot, from which it has drawn to finance Scottish public spending. In some years that has meant that Scotland’s tax revenues, including a geographic share of oil taxation, have contributed more to the UK than it has received as a share of public spending, but in most years it has not. That seems to us to have been an example of the pooling of risk and resources that is represented by the social Union, and we do not think at this stage that it should be altered for the future. Additionally, as the Independent Expert Group conclude, the assignment or devolution of these revenues would be associated with a corresponding reduction in the block grant. This would then expose a large proportion of the Scottish budget to very high levels of volatility driven by the market price of a globally traded commodity rather than the Scottish Parliament’s decisions. Such volatility can be accommodated and such fluctuations absorbed more readily in the larger and more broadly based UK economy. It is also not evident how the assignment or devolution of these revenues would increase the financial accountability of the Scottish Parliament.”. . 4) Scotland's national defence is much stronger being part of the UK. For example, we benefit from being part of NATO - an organisation countries like to be a member of as they understand the benefits of collective security in an uncertain world. Moreover, national defence contracts from the MOD bring many benefits to Scotland in terms of jobs. The 4,500 strong workforce at shipyards in Glasgow and Rosyth are sustained by MOD work, for instance.. . 5) The North Sea oil industry benefits from being part of the union, and separation would involve risks for oil companies, particularly over taxation. Under current rules, for example, they can offset exploration costs in one part of the North Sea against taxes on their producing fields in other parts. Such an option could fall away if the English and Scottish sectors were divided. Alex Kemp, professor of petroleum economics at Aberdeen university business school says:. . “There’s a risk of investment uncertainty, especially about the taxation and licensing regime. A Scottish government would be proportionately more dependent on oil revenues than a UK one, possibly increasing the incentive to tax the sector more during a budget squeeze.". . 6) The benefit of a unified tax system within the UK. As part of the unified UK tax system, there is no need for Scottish businesses, individuals or HMRC to divide tax liability between Scotland and the rest of the UK in relation to any UK taxes. For example, companies such as retailers have multiple purchasing, processing and selling across both jurisdictions. Thus, in separate tax systems, they would need to comply with two different sets of rules for each tax collected and remitted to each administration; and establish the proportions of profits liable for Corporation Tax in each jurisdiction. Potentially, the compliance burden for cross border businesses would be duplicated for each tax. Moreover, the Scotland Office estimate that the tax compliance costs for Scottish businesses could double to more than £1 billion if a separate Scottish tax system was introduced.. . 7) The Bank of England sets monetary policy with the needs of the UK in mind. We would lose this benefit if Scotland was separated from the UK.. . 8) A separate Scotland would lose “lender of last resort” facilities, which has arguably saved the UK economy from a depression. Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist at the IMF, has said as much.. . 9) Scottish and UK businesses are so dependent on each other. For example, whilst only 1.8% of Scotland’s registered enterprises are owned by enterprises in the rest of the UK, they account for 20% of employment and turnover and almost half of Scotland’s medium and large companies. . . 10) Scotland is better off politically as part of the UK. For example, the UK currently enjoys 29 votes in the European Council. If Scotland separated then this would fall to 27, giving the UK more votes per head of population that it currently receives. With only 7 votes, Scotland would have less voting power that Greece. It would also have to rely on building shaky alliances with other member states to pass any motion, or block any damaging proposal.. . 11) The UK is Scotland's biggest trading partner. £45.2 billion of our exports go there, which is around 40% of Scottish GDP, or two-thirds of our total exports. Our other export partners are as follows:. . US £3.3 billion. Netherlands £2 billion. France £1.6 billion. Germany £1.3 billion. Rest of EU £4.7 billion. Rest of Europe £1.8 billion. Other International £6.5 billion. . The most recent imports figures are the 2007 Input-Output tables. This data shows:. . rUK imports £44 billion. International imports £22 billion. . In other words, two-thirds of Scotland’s imports came from the rest of the UK. Of these imports, banking was the biggest single import, worth £5.4 billion, of which imports from the rest of the UK accounted for 82%. The eighth largest import industry, air transport, worth £1.4 billion, is the largest industry where the majority of imports come from outside the UK (51%).. . Separation could greatly harm the trade between Scotland and the UK, particularly if Scotland adopts a different currency (eg the Euro) in the future. The SNP have stated they want a referendum on Scotland adopting the Euro in the future, if separation is achieved. By adopting a different currency, import and export decisions would be based partly on exchange rate fluctuations (a real appreciation of the euro against sterling means that rUK goods would be cheaper relative to Scottish goods. As a result, rUK businesses would be put off importing goods from Scotland). Moreover, using a different currency means that foreign exchange risk is further introduced for businesses, which can be costly and difficult to manage. . . 12) One-fifth of private sector economic activity in Scotland is accounted for by companies owned elsewhere in the UK. According to the Scottish Business Survey (SBS), in 2009 companies owned in the rest of the UK accounted for 19% of total private sector employment and 12% of manufacturing employment. The SBS also finds that on a gross value added (GVA) basis the proportions are larger – companies owned in the rest of the UK accounted for 23% of total private sector GVA and 22% of manufacturing GVA.. . In addition, according to the Scottish Corporate Sector Statistics (2011) large companies (i.e. with 250 or more staff) based elsewhere in the UK employ roughly the same number of people in Scotland as large companies based in Scotland. It should be noted that these figures only cover employment in enterprises registered for PAYE or VAT, and so exclude smaller firms, which are more likely to have their employees in the same country in which they are headquartered. The figures also exclude public sector employment (which account for around 25% of total employment). Human health and social work is the largest employment sector in Scotland (16.5%). . . The point here is that Scottish jobs are clearly created and are safe as part of the UK. It is a simple fact that separation would result in substantial job losses. . . 13) The UK, by percentage of total votes, has the 5th largest influence on the IMF. Scotland, by being part of the UK, has a massive influence on the decision making of such a crucial organisation.. . 14) By being part of the UK, Scotland benefits enormously from the Bank of England taking part in meetings with other central banks at the Bank for Iinternational Settlements (BIS) every 2 months. The main mission of the BIS is to serve central banks in their pursuit of monetary and financial stability, to foster international cooperation in those areas, and to act as a bank for central banks. . . If Scotland separated from the UK it would not have its own central bank, and as a result would have no influence on monetary policy in these discussions. The Bank of England, on the other hand, represents the entire UK (which includes Scotland) in areas that are of monetary concern in global financial markets. This point further highlights the greater economic stability that Scotland has as part of the UK.. . 15) The United Kingdom has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, is the fourth most powerful military power in the World, has a top table seat on most international bodies such as the World Bank, IMF, NATO and EU. Membership of the G7, G8, G20. All this will be lost by an independent Scotland and much of it by a rump UK.. . **Unanswered Questions** . . 1) Would a separate Scottish government meet existing UK government state and public sector pension commitments? The same question applies to state pension disability allowances.. . 2) What level of income tax, national insurance contributions, corporation tax, road tax, fuel duty, VAT and welfare benefits in a separate Scotland? Would pensions be paid at RPI or CPI in Scotland?. . 3) Would Scotland would have separate armed forces, and if so, how would they be constituted, configured, funded and equipped? Moreover, would Scotland have its own secret services? What type of military does Mr Salmond envisage to have on all three fronts, Army, Navy and Airforce? . . 4) Would the BBC would remain as the main public broadcaster in a separate Scotland? Could Scotland afford to fund its own public service broadcaster and one with such a global reach/reputation? Would a separate Scotland continue to have the Royal Mail and other shared standards and regulatory bodies that is enjoyed as part of the UK, such as HMRC, the FSA, and the DVLA?. . 5) What if Shetland say ‘its wir oil’?. . 6) Many Scottish jobs such as shipbuilding and support industries are defence related. How many would be lost as it seems obvious rUK would not place contracts in Scotland and would close the present bases.. . 7) What effect would separation have on the current VOSA setup within the Transport Industry? As present VOSA can pull vehicles into checkpoints like the one at Bridge of Allan and also do roadside checks with regards to Tachograph on the spot checks.. Will the current VOSA setup within Scotland be scrapped under an independent Scotland?. . 8) Will the current Scottish Government be able to provide EVERY Scottish Voter with a HARD Copy of their Business Plan for a separate Scotland? Specifically one covering the following areas: Your first 12 month fiscal plan; your 5 year plan and finally a 10 year forecast.. . 9) Why is it better to use the money from North Sea oil to benefit well-off people in Scotland than to use it to combat poverty in places like Middlesbrough and Merthyr Tydfil?. . 10) If Scotland breaks away, border controls in what’s left of the UK would remain the responsibility of the Westminster government. What guarantee is there that the UK government would not require people living in Scotland to have a passport in order to travel to England? If you live in Gretna your nearest large supermarket is in Carlisle—the introduction of passport controls on the border would affect people’s everyday lives. If a Scot travels to England, Wales, or Northern Ireland to visit family/friends will they need to pay for medical care if I need it? And vice-versa?. . 11) Currently the top Scottish Universities gain from membership of the elite UK Russell group? Bearing in mind that the group encourages cross-university research and as a result, drives up research standards, will Scottish Universities still be able retain membership?. . 12) If in a referendum, a yes vote was delivered, but a region (let’s say for example the Lothian’s region) voted against. Would that region then be forced to join a separate Scotland? Or would it (as the precedent set by Northern Ireland shows) be allowed to remain part of the UK, as is the democratic mandate stipulated by the people living there?. . 13) What is the Scottish government strategy for when the oil runs out?. . 14) What would a separate Scotland’s immigration policy be?. . 15) What would a separate Scotland’s foreign policy towards Europe be? Bearing in mind that Spain, France and Belgium have their own separatist movements who will be emboldened by a separate Scotland?. . 16) Do you know what the plan is for Intellectual Property in a separate Scotland? Are we going to have Scottish Patents and Trade Marks and a Scottish Patent and Trade Mark Office? Are we going to recognise UK Patents and Trade Marks and will we have a separate qualification system and Institute etc?. . 17) Would Scottish students at university in England become international students and face even higher fees?. . 18) Would a separate Scotland keep the National Minimum Wage?. . 19) If I drive my car into England from a separate Scotland will I have to buy international travel insurance?. . 20) Would a separate Scotland be able to retain the aircraft landing slots at airports like Heathrow?. . 21) Is it likely that the Bank of England would be willing to become “Scotland’s lender of last resort”? If so confident about the benefits of separation, why need to “tag-on” to another country’s currency?. . 22) If I go abroad on holiday who will help me if I lost my passport or all my money?. . 23) Would there be an issue with child custody cases if the father/mother took the child across the border, as there would now if a parent took the child to a different country?. . 24) What would happen to the existing UK-wide Renewables Obligation and feed-in tariff subsidy mechanisms and the proposed contract for difference feed-in tariff scheme if Scotland separates from the UK. With a disproportionate number of renewables projects to the north of the border and a disproportionate number of energy consumers to the south, the continuation of this mechanism postindependence would effectively result in English consumers subsidising Scottish projects—why would a Westminster Government accept this?. . 25) Who will guarantee my deposit in a Scottish bank? Many retirement lump sums are in a cash ISA. Will these government backed schemes be maintained if Scotland becomes a different country? Will people be able to keep their Premium Bonds if Scotland separates from the UK?. . 26) Who will control the basic interest rate that determines the rate of my mortgage?. . 27) Would a separate Scottish Stock Exchange be established?. . 28) Who will guarantee that doctors and dentists are properly qualified if Scotland is separate from the rest of the UK?. . 29) I love watching Match of the Day, would it become part of a subscription channel like Sky Sport and ESPN for Scots who were no longer paying the TV Licence fee?. . 30) Will businesses face additional costs if rUK becomes an export market? What is the separatist policy regarding trade? What if someone lives in Annan but works in Carlisle. Where do they pay income tax NI etc?. . 31) Will Scotland have a written constitution, if so WHO will write this constitution? Considering the SNP say they want an independent Scotland by the next parliamentary elections, does that mean the SNP controlled Scottish parliament will determine that constitution? . . 32) Will their be a second chamber? There are very few sovereign states in the world with just one chamber because it gives the governing party too much power. . . 33) Will Scotland have a Governor General like ALL other commonwealth realms, bar the UK? . . 34) Will God save the Queen be the Royal Anthem of Scotland?. . 35) If a person had their mortgage/loan with an English bank, would they be charged extra?. . 36) If the vast majority of soldiers in the Royal Regiment of Scotland say they wish for their regiment to remain part of the British Army.. will the regiment remain part of the British Army or will it be forcibly extracted and put into the new Scottish defence force, forcing those in the regiment to leave? . . 37) if the vast majority of Scottish soldiers, sailors and airmen currently serving in the British Armed Forces decide they wish to remain part of the British Armed Forces.... how will a new Scottish defence force be fully staffed? There are not 1000s of people desperate to get a place in a new defence force so will the planned size have to be shrunk or will it take decades to get it to the snps proposed capability?. . 38) Would Berwick upon Tweed be part of an independent Scotland or stay with the rest of the UK, if this is what they wanted? Do they not have right to "self determination"? The same applies to the Shetlands.. . 39) Will there be import/export tax for goods arriving/going down south?. . 40) What wil be the criminal extridition treaties in a ' isolated' scotland be?. . 41) Would a separate Scotland still have access to national organisations like the AA, Met office, etc?. . 42) How would warrranties on equipment like fridges, computers etc be affected?. . 43) Would there be specific Internet Providers that we were only allowed to use or would there be censorship to block "Anti-Scottish" sites?. . 44) What happens to all our National Insurance contributions if Scotland separates? Furthermore, what happens if we have insurance policies in British-based companies? Will they let us keep them?. . Campaigns and Websites for Further Reading -. . http://bettertogether.net - Better Together. . http://www.aforceforgood.org.uk - The United Kingdom: A Force for Good. . http://www.openunionism.com - Open Unionism. . http://conservativefriendsoftheunion.com - Conservative Friends of the Union. . http://www.unitedalways.org/index.html - United kingdom - United Always. . http://www.britainfirst.org/scotland - Britain First. . http://www.onedynamicnation.org.uk - One Dynamic Nation. . http://www.scottishunionistparty.co.uk/index.php - Scottish Unionist Party. . http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk - Scottish Labour Party. . http://www.scottishconservatives.com - Scottish Conservative Party. . http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk - Scottish Liberal Democratic Party. . Blogs -. . http://britainunited2.blogspot.co.uk - Britain United. . http://ktheunionist.blogspot.co.uk - the Unionist. . http://yestouk.posterous.com - Yes To The UK. . http://thinkagainscotland.blogspot.co.uk - Union United, . . making sense of the wacky SNP!. . http://boycottthesnp.tumblr.com - Boycott the SNP. . http://globaldefenceanalysis.wordpress.com - Global Defence Analysis. . http://effiedeans.posterous.com - Effiedean's Space. . http://www.onedynamicnation.org.uk - One Dynamic Nation. . http://www.toryhoose.com - Tory Hoose. . http://www.labourhame.com - Labour Hame. . http://iainmacwhirter2.blogspot.co.uk - Iain MacWhirter. . http://www.tomharris.org.uk/Tom_Harris_MP/Home.html - Tom Harris MP. . Facebook Pages -. . https://www.facebook.com/Britu1 - Do Not Break Our Unity. . https://www.facebook.com/britu2 - Battle for Britain. . https://www.facebook.com/bettertogetheruk - Better Together. . https://www.facebook.com/KeepScotlandBritish - Keep Scotland British. . https://www.facebook.com/StrongerUnited - Stronger Together. . https://www.facebook.com/pages/Conservative-Friends-of-the-Union/205845256186787?ref=pb - Conservative Friends of the Union. . https://www.facebook.com/ProUnitedKingdom - Pro United Kingdom. . https://www.facebook.com/toryhoose - Tory Hoose. . https://www.facebook.com/notoscottishindependence - No to Scottish Independence. . https://www.facebook.com/pages/No-to-Independence/185192594864728?ref=pb - No to Independence. . https://www.facebook.com/pages/Oppose-the-SNP/201744043197385?ref=pb - Oppose the SNP. . https://www.facebook.com/onedynamicnation - One Dynamic Nation. . https://www.facebook.com/DundeeAgainstIndependence - Dundee for the UK: No to Independence. . https://www.facebook.com/BoycottTheSnp - Boycott the SNP. . https://www.facebook.com/ScottishConservatives - Scottish Conservatives. . https://www.facebook.com/WillieRennieLibDem - Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
Established in the recent years Do Not Break Our Unity in edinburgh , scotland in united-kingdom.
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