It s not exactly a surprise there are a number of signs pointing to historic overextension not only at the top of the indexes, but throughout much of the market. And just as the laws of physics dictate how high something can be built without buckling over, there are loose axioms around how overextended valuations can get. Without the buttress of low yields as the economy recovers, price multiples are looking as if they re on an unstable foundation.
These market axioms are based on precedent. And for Jonathan Coleman, a small- and mid-cap portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, which manages $364 billion in assets, the past is illustrating how extreme investor euphoria and the valuations it is pushing up currently are.
10-year Treasury yields have risen to their highest levels since before the pandemic in recent days.
James McDonald, CIO at Hercules Investments, told Insider he expects yields to continue rising.
He said they could rise to 2.5% by the end of March and trigger a 20% sell-off in the S&P 500.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have spiked to a one-year high over the last month, rising above 1.5% as COVID-19 cases fall and vaccinations continue positive developments for the economic recovery ahead.
According to James McDonald, chief investment officer of the alternative asset manager Hercules Investments, the bleeding isn t likely to stop anytime in the coming weeks.
REUTERS/Luke MacGregor This story is available exclusively to Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.
Economist David Rosenberg is warning that the S&P 500 is due for lackluster returns this year.
He said the S&P 500 s most expensive stocks could see a median 30% drop, like in the dot-com bubble.
He laid out in several charts how extreme investor euphoria has become.
Investor euphoria has seemed to reach a particular level of bizarreness this year.
Stock indices are at all-time-highs despite an uneven economic recovery and the risk that new strains of COVID-19 may prolong the global pandemic.
Heidi Gutman / CNBC This story is available exclusively to Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.
In an exclusive interview with Insider, Ray Dalio said he expects a period of weak returns in stocks.
He said low interest rates are fueling a bubble that will eventually burst.
Major Wall Street banks are bullish on the direction of equity markets, however.
With the Federal Reserve pinning down interest rates, return-hungry investors have turned to stocks for the income bonds would have provided in a different era. But with all of this appreciation in stocks, little upside potential remains, according to legendary investor Ray Dalio.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images
John Hussman is calling for a 65-70% drop in the S&P 500.
He says he sees fresh deterioration in a key market indicator.
His comments come as stocks sit at record highs amid euphoric investor sentiment.
Investors are by now conscious of the heightened risk of a stock-market pullback in the near future, given the euphoric speculation that has continued to drive valuations upwards.
Eighty-nine percent of financial professionals surveyed by Deutsche Bank earlier this month said that they saw bubbles in financial markets, and Bank of America and Charles Schwab both recently warned that investor sentiment is approaching extremes, making stocks vulnerable to a sell-off.