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How a college-based team of students, faculty and volunteers bested government intelligence community prognosticators and gave birth to Superforecasting.

United statesBarbara mellersDominic heaneyDon mooreWelton changPhil tetlockShannon giffordNational public radioGood judgment incHebrew universitySchool of artsWharton schoolUniversity of california at berkeleyDefense advanced research projects agencyUniversity of pennsylvaniaIntelligence advanced research projects activity