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Why rise in Kerala s coronavirus cases may not signal a new surge

Over two weeks to July 11, average daily new Covid-19 cases in Kerala have increased by 15.2% and the state accounts for about one in every four new infections in India, data from Covid19India.org show. No other state outside the north east is showing such growth in new Covid-19 cases. The Indian Council of Medical Research has projected, in some scenarios, that India s third wave could begin as early as August. Could the rise in Kerala then be heralding the start of the third wave in India? Unlikely, say health experts, pointing to the absence of a steep rise in infections. Cases are increasing at a slow rate in Kerala, despite the relaxation of lockdown restrictions and the rise of the more transmissible Delta variant in the state, they tell us. Mobility is up, people are mixing and with Delta [variant dominating], the numbers should be shooting up, not stabilising, Rajeev Sadanandan, the chief executive of Health Systems Transformation Platform (HSTP), a New Delhi-based nonpr

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