Prices are surging from China to Europe as demand for coal rebounds from a virus-induced hit, and temporary mine outages curtail supply. Yet companies remain hesitant to invest in new projects with financing difficult to come by and question marks over long-term demand.
That’s a boon for miners’ bottom lines but goes against the grain of the typical commodity cycle, where high prices are a signal to increase production and eventually bring the market back into balance. The disruption to normal dynamics underscores how broader environmental goals are changing investment patterns for fossil fuels.
“We expect most coal miners exporting into the seaborne market will seek to absorb the current increase in coal prices to bolster balance sheets, rather than commit to new supply,” said Viktor Tanevski, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “There remains a void of projects that are under construction or construction-ready that can be fast-tracked to alleviate price pressure
Climate change: Australia wrestles with its coal mining dilemma
For more than 200 years, workers at the Port of Newcastle have loaded ships with coal dug out of nearby mines for transport to Asia and beyond. But with global action to tackle climate change set to decimate the trade, the management at the world’s biggest coal port is preparing for a future without the fossil fuel that generates 60 per cent of its revenues.
“The future of coal is obviously questionable and we have to prepare for that,” says Roy Green, chair of the port, which is a gateway to the Hunter Valley, a coal mining region 280km north of Sydney. “We are likely to see a continuing flattening of coal volumes through the port and ultimately a decline, as the world switches away from coal-fired power.”