Yes.
We are in a stock market bubble. But what if conventional methods of examining market cycles miss a crucial point? While we often talk about parts of cycles
(bull or bear), exploring the full-market cycle may provide another way to look at long-term bubble cycles.
The Speculative Cycle
Charles Kindleberger suggested that speculative manias typically commence with a
“displacement,” which excites speculative interest. The displacement may come from either an entirely new investment object (IPO) or increased profitability of established investments.
The speculation gets reinforced by a
“positive feedback” loop from rising prices. Such ultimately induces
“inexperienced investors” to enter the market. As the positive feedback loop continues and the