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中金 | 锂：大牛市和小逻辑 _ 东方财富网

　　
需求拉动下澳洲锂矿将逐步复苏，非澳锂矿开发进程亦有望加速。短期内澳矿供给受到制约，其响应速度或不达预期，我们预计2021、2022年澳矿供给将分别为22.0万吨、28.2万吨LCE，同比分别+20%、+28%。从长期看，在庞大需求增量的拉动下澳洲锂矿有望逐步复苏，非洲、美洲甚至欧洲的锂矿也将逐步加入供给阵营，我们预计2023-2025年海外锂矿供给将分别为38.7万吨、53.7万吨、70.8万吨LCE，同比分别+37%、+39%、+32%，对应2021-2025年澳矿供给CAGR为34%。
　　
　　
全球盐湖资源集中于南美“锂三角”，供给格局由三寡头向多元化发展。智利、阿根廷、玻利维亚组成的南美“锂三角”蕴含了全球72%的锂资源储量，且资源禀赋优异，锂浓度高而镁锂比较低。从供给格局看，三大巨头(ALB、SQM、Livent)已经在南美运营多年，2015年Orocobre盐湖投产，成为 ....

United States , Hong Kong , France General , Czech Republic , Salt Lake , South Australia , New Crown , Northern Territory , New Mine , Tibetan Plateau , China General , Sichuan Ganzi , Terry Sen , Sichuan Jiangxi , Jiangxi Yichun , Tesla Ford , States Europe , Office The First , United States Clean Energy , Qi Lithium Elegance Group Sheng , Research Chu , Division Lithium , United States Senate , Clean Energy , Research Department , Research Department South America Salt Lake ,

中金：锂的大牛市和小逻辑

　　
需求拉动下澳洲锂矿将逐步复苏，非澳锂矿开发进程亦有望加速。短期内澳矿供给受到制约，其响应速度或不达预期，我们预计2021、2022年澳矿供给将分别为22.0万吨、28.2万吨LCE，同比分别+20%、+28%。从长期看，在庞大需求增量的拉动下澳洲锂矿有望逐步复苏，非洲、美洲甚至欧洲的锂矿也将逐步加入供给阵营，我们预计2023-2025年海外锂矿供给将分别为38.7万吨、53.7万吨、70.8万吨LCE，同比分别+37%、+39%、+32%，对应2021-2025年澳矿供给CAGR为34%。
　　
　　
全球盐湖资源集中于南美“锂三角”，供给格局由三寡头向多元化发展。智利、阿根廷、玻利维亚组成的南美“锂三角“蕴含了全球72%的锂资源储量，且资源禀赋优异，锂浓度高而镁锂比较低。从供给格局看，三大巨头（ALB、SQM、Livent）已经在南美运营多年，2015年Orocobre盐湖投产，� ....

United States , Hong Kong , France General , Czech Republic , Salt Lake , South Australia , New Crown , Northern Territory , New Mine , Tibetan Plateau , China General , Sichuan Ganzi , Terry Sen , Sichuan Jiangxi , Jiangxi Yichun , Tesla Ford , States Europe , Office The First , United States Clean Energy , Gu Service , Qi Lithium Elegance Group Sheng , Research Chu , Division Lithium , United States Senate , Clean Energy , Research Department ,

中金：锂的大牛市和小逻辑-股票频道-和讯网

2.1海外锂矿：澳矿供给响应速度受制约，海外锂矿有望逐步复苏
图表24
资料来源：Pilbara、雅宝、银河资源等公司公告，中金公司研究部
2021年澳矿供给增量将以产能利用率的提高为主。我们预计2021年澳洲锂矿产能增长有限，供给增量将主要以产能利用率的提高为主，主要原因有三，一是最大澳矿泰里森的二期产能虽已经建成，但是根据股东协议其锂精矿不能外销，仅能供给天齐和雅宝两大股东，受制于两大股东澳洲锂盐产能建设进度，我们预计2021年泰里森增量有限。二是除泰里森外在产澳矿仅Pilbara有扩产规划，但其Altura项目规划于2021年四季度投产，Pilbara二期项目仍将根据市场情况投放。三是前期停产的Bald Hill、Wodgina等锂矿尚无复产预期，而新开发锂矿多处于项目早期，短期内难以投入市场。
图表25：
资料来源：Pilbara、雅宝 ....

United States , Hong Kong , France General , Czech Republic , Salt Lake , South Australia , New Mine , Tibetan Plateau , China General , Sichuan Ganzi , Terry Sen , Sichuan Jiangxi , Jiangxi Yichun , Tesla Ford , States Europe , Office The First , United States Clean Energy , Research Chu , Elegance Group Sheng , Division Lithium , United States Senate , Clean Energy , Research Department , Research Department South America Salt Lake , Chile Council , Research Department Europe ,