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A Standoff: Why Russia and Ukraine Each Do Not Want to Strike First Both countries have mobilized their armed forces for a potential escalation in the war in eastern Ukraine, but Moscow and Kiev both have reasons to hold off for now. Russia and Ukraine are exchanging verbal barbs and mobilizing troops along either side of the contested Donbass region, but has the conflict really entered a new escalatory phase? Clashes between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists in Donbass have intensified in recent weeks. Observers noted a sharp uptick in Ukraine’s regular shelling activity against separatist positions in Donetsk and Luhansk, with locals likewise reporting Ukrainian tank fire. A five-year-old child, Vladislav Shikhov, was killed by an explosion. The separatist self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk (DNR) blamed Ukraine’s military for Shikhov’s death, alleging that the explosive armament in question was dropped by a Ukrainian drone however, Kiev disputes t

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