Argument that Ron Desantis was making, that half of her supporters in iowa among likely republican caucusgoers are people that are either independents or crossover democrats. They do make up the antitrump faction, even willing to vote for President Biden in a general election. As we move past iowa, New Hampshire does seem to be a favorable terrain for that kind of coalition of crossover democrats and independent voters. Thats why the polling between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump is much closer. Once you get beyond New Hampshire, talking about south carolina, the Super Tuesday states, you end up having a disproportionate amount of republicans, the rank and filed registered conservative republicans and not as many independents and crossover democrats. Each state has its own unique demographics well be watching. Governor, one that well be watching are the evangelicals
About this. Unfortunately, his support hardens. But were starting to see a little bit of a split in iowa with evangelical supporters who are supporting desantis. And he has the support of a very significant evangelical leader. So do we see a split in the evangelical vote . Thats obviously something Nikki Haley Hasnt been following, but it will matter again in south carolina, and it will matter again in the Super Tuesday states. And margaret, it is amaze when you look at the polls. There is one where haley was up 17 over biden, hypothetical race, the most recent is 8 points. But the same one where trump and biden, 2 , checking here, well within the margin of error. It is that independence and well be very curious to see how many people register as democrats to come into register as republicans tomorrow. Im looking for early texting data to tell me how many people showed up at the West Branch city hall. Iowa. West branch, iowa. Im with geoff in the sense that i desperately want somebody
Right now she is doing better among independents, but i dont know if shell ever get to a point to make that argument. Well, shes got remember, as the poll shows, a big portion of her support is democrats who plan to caucus tomorrow, and independents. And i think that goes to this, erin, your question about intensity and enthusiasm. Because if youre a democrat, 40 below . Not so sure im going risk anything. Johns point too about older voters. Here is what is really important to keep an eye tomorrow, and that is the evangelical vote. What weve seen, two things. Evangelical vote critical to republican victory in november. Those voters, as we know have said, they see Donald Trump as the person who is fighting for them. Every time he gets attacked, thats who jeff and i talked about this, and unfortunately, his support hardens. But were starting to see a little bit of a split in iowa with evangelical supporters who are supporting desantis. And he has the support of a very significant evangel
You cant complain about what happens in the general election if you dont play in the caucuses in iowa and the primary here in New Hampshire. And those are the two stops. Rons not even going to come back to New Hampshire is our understanding. Hes kind of ignoring it. Going off to south carolina. Kind of a strange strategy. Completely given up on the state indicating its just that twoperson race. If you can get it down to two people before super tuesday, clearly thats going to be the opportunity. Now it becomes a 5050 proposition. Right . Can trump really hold at 47, 46, 47 , is that enough to get him over the hump to win super Tuesday States if theres only two people in the race. The math says it isnt but the fact weve even gotten here when no one said we could has defied expectations. The Haley Campaign has launched a new ad in New Hampshire. Lets take a look. The two most disliked politicians in america. Trump and biden. Both are consumed by chaos