There are significant regional disparities in productivity levels across the UK. The June 2022 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to evaluate the reasons for these disparities and policies that might close the gaps. A majority of the panel believe that the productivity differences are attributable to either agglomeration effects or sorting, self-reinforcing phenomena
In July, the ECB issued its first Strategic Review since 2003. The latest CfM-CEPR survey investigates one component of the announced policy shift: the new definition of price stability. Most members of the panel of experts on the European economy support the ECB explicitly allowing inflation to exceed its target for extended periods to make up for below-target inflation in
Fiscal rules were enshrined in the founding documents of the European Monetary Union. This column presents the latest CfM-CEPR survey, in which the panel of experts on the European economy were nearly unanimous in agreeing that the existing EU fiscal rules require revision. Most panel members would opt for some combination of fiscal councils; more flexible, countercyclical, or
Charles Goodhart, Manoj Pradhan
Over the past year, concerns about inflation have reappeared. The January 2021 Centre for Macroeconomics (CfM) survey asked members of its UK-based panel whether inflationary or deflationary pressures would dominate in the upcoming decade and about the main driving forces of inflation.
Should we worry about post-Covid inflation?
Since the Global Crisis, inflation expectations have been subdued in most advanced economies. Central banks have made herculean efforts to hit their inflation targets from below. The consensus prior to Covid-19 was certainly that high rates of inflation would not be a major threat to advanced economies in the foreseeable future.