Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high