Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target