Economists have their favorite indices to measure the health of the economy. GDP, if men are buying underwear, CPI, RV shipments, GDP, plastic surgery appointments, PCE, hemlines… tomorrow on The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown Skylar Olsen, the Chief Economist of Zillow, will discuss some of this, and more, for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”. Meanwhile, lenders are shifting the focus from things they can’t change to things they can: changing regional managers comp plans to incorporate profits instead of volume. Or honing marketing systems now, not when rates drop further and opening up refi opportunities. Or shifting to paying less for a refi and putting the difference into rate sheet pricing. And who’s buying the properties we’re lending on? Women. Okay, that was a bold generalization, but still… (Today’s Commentary podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Vesta, the n
For anyone attending the California MBA’s Western Secondary starting this weekend, here’s a challenge too good for any tennis players to pass up. Augie Del Rio, CEO of Gallus Insights, and I will play doubles against anyone Sunday afternoon from 2-4PM across the street from the Waldorf. The loser of 2 out of 3 sets pays $500, the winner gets to decide the charity. First two to email Augie snags the opportunity. (I don’t know Augie’s skill level, but I am old… it’ll be like shooting fish in a barrel.) Speaking of the Western Secondary Market Conference, the California MBA uses the financial resources derived from this to support advocacy efforts in Sacramento. No “lobby rats!” If you’re going, sign up. Support the organization! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology and other services to the mor
Borrowers will bear the brunt of this, but rumors from several sources have Fair Isaac planning on giving most residential lenders an early Christmas “present,” effective 12/26, of higher fees for mortgage work incorporated into a new tier system. (Talk to your credit reporting agency or provider for details and tiering.) I heard a dealer in a Reno casino say that no one gets ruined by losing, they get ruined by trying to win back the money they lost. How hard is it to get back a lost client? People ask me why I send the commentary out six days a week. Hey, if I can help one MLO not lose one borrower, it’s worth it, right? For example, if an MLO is working with a borrower, or their spouse, who is Native American, they can access VA's Native American Direct Loan (NADL) program to buy, build, or improve a home on federal trust land. The borrower may also be eligible for a loan to refinance an existing NADL to reduce their interest rate. Find out if they quali
With the Fed set to end its MBS purchases tomorrow, removing free money from the MBS market, where do you think home affordability will go from here? Mortgage rates are already at their highest levels since 2008 and in theory, a large buyer exiting the space should push MBS prices down and thus mortgage rates up. As one California mortgage executive wrote to me, “Home prices ran up 20 to 30 percent for two years, as Fed Chair Powell could not figure how to get his foot off the accelerator. There are good borrowers and good LTVs out there, but most have been priced out of the market with home values rising 20 percent per year. Take the free money away, and none of this is sustainable.” There is debate about if the Fed’s actions have created some sort of housing bubble. It remains to be seen whether home prices work their way lower, we see no price increases for a couple of years, or the pace of appreciation merely moderates. Helping affordability, more lenders are r
Overheard in the hallway: “My email got hacked again. That’s now the third time I’ve had to rename the cat.” But there’s a lot of other conversation and session topics here in the hallways at the IMB in Nashville. Discussion about the rapidity of the Federal Reserve’s moves in attempting to combat inflation, and how might those moves actually eventually push rates back down if they dampen the economy. How volume and margin projections for 2022 are changing the minds of lenders, potentially turning them into sellers. The impact of Experian Go: a free, first-of-its-kind program designed to help credit invisibles begin building credit on their own terms. The continuing shift by employees, and the mangers managing them, in hybrid work-from-home arrangements. Trends in signing and retention bonuses. (The STRATMOR Group has a compensation survey, as does the MBA’s Compensation Survey.) Conventional servicing multiples up to 5x1! Conventional f